My Personal Charts of PA

The charts show movement between the indexes in relation to the day's range and I use them as a tool for confluence and strength between the indexes, who is leading and who is lagging. Where one leads the others tend to follow. Like anything else it isn't true 100% of the time so like any other tool I use it as a tool to digest the possibilities and how it aligns to order flow and expectations. With today's environment the leader in strength is the YM and weakness is NQ so I take trades accordingly. I also take the time frame into consideration since the relationship between the indexes may be different for higher and lower time frames. I set up the tick charts to match on the three by condensing the 144 and by adjusting the number of ticks in the ES and NQ so that all condensed charts start at the same time at the left of the chart or at least come close(varies from day to day).

Risk Reward model for trading larger swings-
With larger swings a trade that goes against you can eat up a pretty large portion of your account if you do not plan your risk. Employing a risk model that will set losses at a max percentage of the balance of trade account can be employed to manage risk in markets at times like this and can save a trader from ruin. Determining that percentage is completely up to you as a trader but some considerations should be made when determining the percentage you choose. Avoid using too high a percentage and preserve capital through longer periods of drawdown. I limit myself to no more than 4% and typically 2 - 3%. After all trading is much more about risk management than being right on the trade. A string of losses is inevitable in this business and preserving your capital account through risk management is key to staying in the game.
Setting what capital amount you are willing to risk based on your account size will allow you to predetermine the size of your trade according to a predetermined stop and entry point. As an example, let's say you have determined by your account size and percentage you are able to risk no more than $100. The market is pulling back and you are looking to enter long on the pull back. The capital of $100 only allows you to enter with 1 contract no sooner than a pullback to at least 62% of the pullback. You now know you can only enter a trade at or above the 62% pullback level. You can now set a buy limit order at this level and wait. If the trade triggers then great, you are in the trade knowing that your stop will limit the risk to $100 should the trade go against you and you get stopped out.

Today All three indexes were sliding on trade war escalation with China. Corrections in ES and NQ were within 100%. YM would falsely break above 100% then continue to make new structure lows. I got caught in the retracement after the false breakout entering long a couple of times before I decided to follow what the majority of the indexes were doing and ignoring the signals YM gave singularly.

Attachment g

NT8 Alerts Sound File

NT8 Original Sounds

NT8 Original Sounds Reduced to 33% and 20%

ES, YM, and NQ closed 8-1 OPEQ this morning in sellers window as we have non farm payroll tomorrow and we've been climbing into the number for the last 8 days. Typical a run up into the number in the prior two weeks.
NQ closed last and triggered the retracements in all. Had a sitting order at OPEQ but pulled it last moment to wait for the confirmation of rejection. NQ triggered in the seller's window created last month on the D1.
ES at O4/7 today, YM at 03/7 today, NQ at 02/2, and RTY at 03/7. RTY has been the weakest overall since it is far from the Sellers window the other indexes are now in. With OPEQ ratios I anticipate a move to close today's imbalance prior to tomorrow and possibly a drop after the NFP numbers with the trade war still weighing on the market. Will Traders hold long for tomorrows NFP after todays run up?
ENG V3 - prot.pdf
Current shorts are RTY from 1521.7 TP at 1509.6(50Fib), NQ from 7868.25 TP 7844(yesterday HOD and 61.8 retrace), ES 2977.25 TP2972.25(yesterday HOD and 61.8 retrace), YM 26802 TP 26693(yesterday HOD and 50Fib). YM and ES very strong today and I noticed big volume in ES at levels above yesterday high. Also NQ and RTY have compounds so 2 positions each. ES and YM holding firm and refusing to drop significantly as of 11:30. RTY dropping like a rock, NQ fighting to float but showing weakness. The 3 are within buyers window.
Added a position to YM 11:36 Charts added. Moving to reduce risk 11:41

PA charts of interest posted

Where are the indexes in relation to each other? RTY showing the greatest weakness. The rest are back to Window where the sell off began and tomorrow's NFP should be interesting. We've run up into the announcement and a good number might not do much to push above the sellers window. A great number could do it. A bad number could sell them off hard. I'm in the sell off camp but PA has to confirm it. Gonna be interested in seeing how RTY does in a sell off or rally of indexes with it's apparent weakness. As of 6:45 p.m. ES 04/07, YM 03/07, NQ 02/02, RTY 02/07. Trade war update; A meeting has been scheduled between Chinese and US negotiators in early October but with the current situation in Hong Kong and also Taiwan the meeting will be about more than just trade and may not lead to any significant resolution. Yet the fact that meeting is scheduled has led to some( maybe false) optimism in the markets.

Indexes are trading near the morning high. Current, ES 04/08, NQ 02/03, YM 03/08, RTY 03/08(above the mornning high). If they break the morning high before NFP the imbalance will compound and downside potential will increase. As has happened last few days RTY takes the lead in breaking the highs of day only to fall back deeper than the rest. NFP in 20 minutes. Nq broke PDH and all three are crouched below CDH. Sellers window still has room and a challenge of the high can ensue prior to or after NFP release.

NFP Disappointed. Avg earnings up which is a positive, so neutral to negative for bias. Look for entry with targets at YM26682, ES2968.50, NQ 7829, 8:46 Gighs of the day have been probed and price is turning down. break of 26782 in YM, NQ 7870, ES 2981, and it's good for my trades. HOD may be in. Sold the high in NQ. YM, RTY, and ES on way up to high. Liquidity resting above and below. In the below camp. 8:55 and away we go! 9:00 Bringing in stops on positions and locking in profit on NQ. Will loosen up once we get below the 8:30 reaction low. 9:08 Price needs to stay below the following levels ES 2984.5, NQ 7887.5, YM 26818, RTY 15156.8. Heaven or hell are just a tweet away. 9:44 All indexes have broke and targets are nearing. 10:00 should see a probe of the lows or a big fallout. The 10 year has been dropping adding fuel to the fall. All stops in Profit! Stopped out

All traded back to center after running the stops at lows. Could this be an after London Close selloff? HTF Is towards new highs which were probed by RTY,NQ, and ES , but the imbalance of ES and weakness of RTY is too big to ignore. 10:20 Better to sit on hands and let this play out through London close to gauge reactions in this range. All still in that sell window. Powell speaks at 12:30, a break of the highs today during his speech increases the imbalance and looking to get short again is in order. Post Powell YM Took out the day's high. Powell speech a bit hawkish. 3:00 RTY weakness shows up again. Holding it short to the close to see if we can break the the day's low. YM took out highs and I got short on weaknessin structure. Small position in ES as well. YM and ES 04/08 and they're heavy. NQ stuck around the day's mid level. YM TP at 26794, ES 2980.50 where both have a swing low to test. Russell trying to hold above the day's low. 3:14 Added 1 more to the RTY with bounce into sellers window. 3:30 Added 1 to YM. 3:47 out of ES. All tracking lower now. RTY TP at the days's low1507.3. Fighting to hold that low. 3:50 RTY closed. 3:54 YM closed. All are continuing lower. Reference video 2019-09-06TradeDay

Russell weakness playing out. Never made yesterday's high like the rest, and I believe longer term shorts are building in these rallies. Chart em anew this weekend and plot out Seller windows. Imbalance still favors going lower in the majors. Look to entering with larger size to the downside in alignments. Keep today's NFP range in mind next week as per rule.

Current and coming week
Fundamentals- Dollar shortage=Dollar strength=slowdown in exports- Global economic slowdown- Russell weakness, hasn't broken out of August range, could be sign of broader market weakness to come- Trade war weight, Hong Kong may be another point of contention in talks, Trade war optimism for October meeting as well- Beginning of month Portfolio balancing- Fed to cut rates this month- entering Holiday season

Releases USA
Tues 10:00-Jolts Job Openings
Wed 8:30- PPI 10:30 Crude Oil
Thurs 8:30- CPI
Fri. 8:30- Retail Sales 1:00 Rig Count

ECB
Thurs 7:45 Interest Rate Decision 8:30 Draghi

YM Technical- Within Seller's window- Current Imbalance 03/08- No proper correction of H1 range leg- 2 week run up into NFP- Cash market gaps below can fill within proper H1 correction, can form trading range above gaps within proper correction and remain open- Current range not fully formed- Break out of month long trading range last week of August with proper correction and new leg trading above break out high=trending higher- Within spitting distance new all time highs.

ES Technical- Within Seller's window- Current Imbalance 04/08- No proper correction of H1 range leg- 2 week run up into NFP- Cash market gaps below can fill within proper H1 correction, can form trading range above gaps within proper correction and remain open- Current range not fully formed- Break out of month long trading range last week of August with proper correction and new leg trading above break out high=trending higher- Within spitting distance new all time highs.
YM corrected chart

NQ Technical- Within Seller's window- Current Imbalance 02/03- No proper correction of D1 range leg- 2 week run up into NFP- Cash market gaps below can fill within proper correction of breakout leg, can form trading range above gaps within proper correction and gaps remain open- Current range not fully formed- Break out of month long trading range September 4 - Within spitting distance new all time highs.