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Show me your greatness and your trading system (EURUSD drop)

  • #21
  • Aug 31, 2019 3:53pm Aug 31, 2019 3:53pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Read again...I said their aftermath can be. Good luck predict when Trump feel to send out one, and be in position ahead. But you know, whatever you are saying...
a trader does not need to predict news and have open or pending orders ahead of any news event to make profit. Is this your only perception of news trading? if it is, then you need to educate yourself further before you can really have an opinion that matters on the subject.
  • #22
  • Aug 31, 2019 4:05pm Aug 31, 2019 4:05pm
There is a saying, sell high and buy deeply
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  • #23
  • Aug 31, 2019 4:05pm Aug 31, 2019 4:05pm
Quoting tropical_g
{quote} a trader does not need to predict news and have open or pending orders ahead of any news event to make profit. Is this your only perception of news trading? if it is, then you need to educate yourself further before you can really have an opinion that matters on the subject.
No problem.
Will look you up for "education".
In my little mind a trump or boris johnson twitter message not equal to a new event exactly.
But here I am, already learning from you that I am wrong, cos by all means they are.
I don't mind to admit that I am wrong, when I think I can avoid exposure/ open trades going into an interest decision or a NFP,
Vs. unable to avoid if a Twitter or a FB message cause out of the blue a jump in price, or a slippage to a stop.
Cos without obvious news, I may just happen to be a previously opened trade or trades, since I would deem no high impact news windows of time safe to trade ( my way).

But I am all ears to learn from you why there is no difference.
Not now, cos being on vacation, I have reached my posting limit for today,
But perhaps another time
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #24
  • Aug 31, 2019 4:08pm Aug 31, 2019 4:08pm
an example of how it can work

I do not have to know what to do, maybe he drinks with puttin cafe
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  • #25
  • Aug 31, 2019 4:20pm Aug 31, 2019 4:20pm
that looks like that for euro
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  • #26
  • Aug 31, 2019 4:53pm Aug 31, 2019 4:53pm
Quoting tropical_g
{quote} a trader does not need to predict news and have open or pending orders ahead of any news event to make profit. Is this your only perception of news trading? if it is, then you need to educate yourself further before you can really have an opinion that matters on the subject.
so your one of the purist type traders when making money with forex all hands are on the table , and please go on educate us with what you know on how to trade would be a interesting post seems you have an opinion
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #27
  • Aug 31, 2019 4:57pm Aug 31, 2019 4:57pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Read again...I said their aftermath can be. Good luck predict when Trump feel to send out one, and be in position ahead. But you know, whatever you are saying...
i have to agree with profit farmer because the tweets come when none of us know . when they come the aftermath spike for a retrace is a sound way to trade if you are lucky enough to be at your computer
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #28
  • Aug 31, 2019 5:02pm Aug 31, 2019 5:02pm
rtopa43 , was greed the reason you started this thread, looking for the holy grail good luck with that .
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #29
  • Aug 31, 2019 5:39pm Aug 31, 2019 5:39pm
Quoting rtopa43
{quote} What I am asking? A strategy (and even better someone that actually take the sell off trade) that actually can trade sell offs. I am not able to see it but I would like! You say that there were technical reasons for selling, could you elaborate?
Let me be clear: no one knew about the big move down before it happened. The move, however, fit the narrative of the market from the last few months. Look back on the 4H and you see a strong trend move that, technically, was ripe for square up. The sharp up move satisfied that technical requirement, and once that was "proven" to be completed, the move back down resumed. Technically, you should be trading the retracement and H/S neckline break on the 1H, until the move is over. That's what I have been doing and how I view the E$.

I hope this helps. The basic idea is to figure out the structure and narrative of the market, and once you believe you understand those two things, to trade. Keep going until it changes or breaks. Keep in mind that the work is in figuring out structure and narrative. If you don't have that, you should not be trading.
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  • #30
  • Aug 31, 2019 7:36pm Aug 31, 2019 7:36pm
Quoting rtopa43
{quote} The answer of noobs falls in those categories: 1. I saw it in my charts BUT I do not trade it because I am a liar or an idiot 2. Cannot explain anything, follow the chart is all there, but my fantastic entry was there OH!!! 3. My system works (that they believe) only under some conditions 4. Say to others : noob trader (3dots) - easily(2dots) = 1 IDIOT except from noob I ask for someone to show us if their system work for that specific case! It is not about sample size as @TradeMinim...

SEVERAL members are telling you already that this event could be traded.. Just do what the chart its telling you to do..

like this, this is EUR/USD:

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I was trading WTi at the moment.. oh yea it had a big drop that no one expected (go figure) and yet again i caught that move.. Go ahead, try to find the holy indicator based "grail" so you can trade with a 100% win rate exactly when "the indicator crossed down/up" and dont do your homework before that..

Want that screenshot too?? =)

Noobs would be noobs.. at least you are fun to listen =)
  • #31
  • Aug 31, 2019 7:46pm Aug 31, 2019 7:46pm
Quoting havo
{quote} SEVERAL members are telling you already that this event could be traded.. Just do what the chart its telling you to do.. like this, this is EUR/USD: {image} I was trading WTi at the moment.. oh yea it had a big drop that no one expected (go figure) and yet again i caught that move.. Go ahead, try to find the holy indicator based "grail" so you can trade with a 100% win rate exactly when "the indicator crossed down/up" and dont do your homework before that.. Want that screenshot too?? =) Noobs would be noobs.. at least you are fun to listen...
very true they dont want to learn they want the million dollars now good post
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #32
  • Aug 31, 2019 11:37pm Aug 31, 2019 11:37pm
Quoting rtopa43
Hi, Today we had a drop in EURUSD. Most of traders in EURUSD and EURUSD Only failed to see it.
Nobody failed to see anything. In fact, is is impossible to see this in advance. Another (much) bigger example was the swiss move on Jan 2015.

IF your name is on Trump's good book, IF you are a friend of the chairman of every major central bank, IF you are a friend of every major leader (including dictators), and IF they care to hint at their intentions before they do it.. only THEN you can predict this kind of move, you will NOT fail. Now those are very BIG ifs.. aint gonna happen. (Oh I forgot about future terrorists too... not sure how you can pull info out of them). Other than that, anyone who made money out of this, was simply "lucky", or he/she gambled, just like trading a red news.

My point is... even Warren Buffet, Soros could not have predicted this. EU broke through a key support. It could have easily bounced strongly from that strong demand zone and gone up. Don't Act.....but REACT.

Some golden words for you to deeply ponder from Mark Douglas:
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In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
  • #33
  • Sep 1, 2019 12:30am Sep 1, 2019 12:30am
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over the other.

2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.

Consider this, if you don't know and don't need to know what is going happen next how do you know there is this higher probability of one thing happening over the other ?

You have to know what is going to happen next, either definitively or probabilistically however you wish to phrase it.

If you have zero knowledge of what is going to happen next, you are trading blind, complete lack of knowledge, ignorant.

It eases the emotional pressure, sooth the negative feelings when you are told you don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. This implies anyone, even a monkey, can make money trading forex.

Really ?

Tell us how you make money at the roulette wheel since you don't need to know what is going to happen next ?

Psychology gurus spill nonsense lies that appeal to the ignorant public that buys them.

This word probability is used to camouflage the lies.

This statement is used to argue their case.

1. Anything can happen.

If you believe strongly this statement in it's absolute form, then the market is random to you. There is no chance you make money other than due to luck.

What do you believe ?

Most important, don't let anyone tell you what you believe, your choice, you own it, your belief is personal.

Belief is the base that creates the fact.
  • #34
  • Sep 1, 2019 5:47am Sep 1, 2019 5:47am
Quoting skyway
Consider this, if you don't know and don't need to know what is going happen next how do you know there is this higher probability of one thing happening over the other ? You have to know what is going to happen next, either definitively or probabilistically however you wish to phrase it. If you have zero knowledge of what is going to happen next, you are trading blind, complete lack of knowledge, ignorant.
I think you have over generalized the points, probably missing the intended deeper meaning.

If you take the "dont need to know" at face value, then yes it does not inspire much confidence and may even imply gambling, trading blindly etc. Of course, every trader needs to and wants to know what will happen next. But does that mean we will be handed down a major decision on a silver platter? No. I think you missed the point. The OP is discussing a particular sudden drop, (triggered by Trump's tweet in this case).... and then there are other sudden unexpected central bank decisions, brexit etc, all of which we can never know in advance. We are talking about macro events, speeches, decisions, news etc.

But that does not mean, we cannot trade with realistic probability using what we have at our disposal... ie, charts, price action and/or indicators. So, even though we need to know them, but we wont get them easily, therefore... we dont (really) need them to trade.

Quoting skyway
1. Anything can happen. If you believe strongly this statement in it's absolute form, then the market is random to you. There is no chance you make money other than due to luck.
How many times a trader finds the PERFECT setup.. whether it is price action based, or indicator based... and as soon as he enters, price goes the other way? That's what is meant by "Anything can happen". As long as we keep that in mind, we wont be 'surprised' or 'shocked' because we can never know (at the very instant it happens) WHY price went the other way when normally it doesnt. We always know after the fact.

We would love to know where all the stop loss and take profit levels are, but they are all part of the unknown variables. So what DO we know?

A trader knows for a fact, that price will always either bounce from SR or blast through it and form new SR. So we can only react to it, not act beforehand (that would be trading blindly or hoping, crying, praying for a profit).
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
  • #35
  • Sep 1, 2019 12:54pm Sep 1, 2019 12:54pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} so your one of the purist type traders when making money with forex all hands are on the table , and please go on educate us with what you know on how to trade would be a interesting post seems you have an opinion
I'm not here to educate you and it isn't an opinion it's fact.
  • #36
  • Sep 1, 2019 1:04pm Sep 1, 2019 1:04pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} No problem. Will look you up for "education". In my little mind a trump or boris johnson twitter message not equal to a new event exactly. But here I am, already learning from you that I am wrong, cos by all means they are. I don't mind to admit that I am wrong, when I think I can avoid exposure/ open trades going into an interest decision or a NFP, Vs. unable to avoid if a Twitter or a FB message cause out of the blue a jump in price, or a slippage to a stop. Cos without obvious news, I may just happen to be a previously opened trade or...
you going to be looking for a long time because I am not here to give to the needy and certainly not the sarcastic. I didn't mention Boris so your example, as obvious as it is, is meaningless, however correct it might be. no news is obvious. there are expectations and there is reality and sometimes they agree and sometimes they don't. value arises when it doesn't.
  • #37
  • Edited 4:26pm Sep 1, 2019 2:26pm | Edited 4:26pm
I don't really understand why sometimes proven traders like PF and Aussi take on some people with silly opinions and argue with these irrational people. I guess the market is closed or slow otherwise it's really not worth it IMHO.
  • #38
  • Sep 1, 2019 3:55pm Sep 1, 2019 3:55pm
Quoting tropical_g
{quote} I'm not here to educate you and it isn't an opinion it's fact.
well i am all ready a very successful trader and nothing you would know would help me in any way

a fact you say so smarty pants teach us
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #39
  • Sep 1, 2019 4:32pm Sep 1, 2019 4:32pm
Quoting OutThere
I don't really understand why sometimes proven traders like PF and Aussi take on some people with silly opinions and argue with these irrational people. I guess the market is closed or slow otherwise it's really not worth it IMHO.
Love a bit of huffy puffy every now and then mate , it make me young again
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #40
  • Sep 1, 2019 4:43pm Sep 1, 2019 4:43pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} Love a bit of huffy puffy every now and then mate , it make me young again
Point taken.
With all the money you are shoveling into large sturdy bags, you can get a lot of huffy n puffy other ways to feel young again and frankly you should.
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