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Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

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Trading Made Simple(r)

  • #3,461
  • Edited 2:37pm Aug 30, 2019 2:24pm | Edited 2:37pm
Quoting DiamondMiner
{quote} Barraka, I do not know what your doing? , but it's not possible to get those results if you had followed the rules. P
I think it's entirely possible to get those results even when following any winning strategy perfectly, the sample size is far too small to reflect whether he's following the strategy correctly or not. And far too small to suggest that there is anything wrong with the strategy (which there clearly isn't). A short negative run like that is meaningless mathematically and does not overcome standard deviation. You need hundreds if not thousands of trades to do that.

I'm not saying he is following the strategy properly either. There is a high chance that he's not. I just don't think we can infer that from such a small set of results. It certainly looks likely he isn't following good management rules given the position sizes. It looks like someone taking lottery chances.
  • #3,462
  • Aug 30, 2019 2:31pm Aug 30, 2019 2:31pm
Quoting RobinHood
Recently, because I have been so busy with my business, I have been trading only Daily charts. Look at the chart below, this is the reason you want to: "ride a trend until the end". 30 Daily down candles in a row. Over 450 pips down. {image} I missed the trade because I was on a cruise in the Caribbean for the 1st 11 days of August.
The start perfectly aligned (all 7!!) for 30 days non-stop!!!

Haven't seen this since looking at Fx Charts

Have a good weekend.
  • #3,463
  • Aug 30, 2019 2:32pm Aug 30, 2019 2:32pm
Probably worth noting I used to be a pro poker player so I take quite a long term viewpoint mathematically, and give little or no credibility to short term data, since it's never reflective of long term results. All that matters is if you're making the right moves, even when those moves don't have the effect you hoped they would they were still right. And even when making the right move loses, you still profit from it. Because maths, lol
  • #3,464
  • Aug 30, 2019 2:37pm Aug 30, 2019 2:37pm
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} If the trade is going my way, I often add on for no other reason than I think that the trade is going to continue going my way based on what I see.
If I take a trade that starts to go against me but I still 100% feel that I have taken the right side of the trade, I've taken to adding a second position, the same size as my first. I've done this because I feel that if I have faith in my choice then my only mistake was to get in too early, and therefore I can bank additional profit by buying/selling again from a second (better) position.

So far it's been a tactic that's worked, but I wonder if it's something that will be so successful over the longer term? Is this something you can advise on?
  • #3,465
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:23pm Aug 30, 2019 3:23pm
Quoting krismitt
{quote} Good call Emm! My EURJPY for closed at 2R while I slept overnight (would have managed the trade differently if it wasn't overnight). {image} While NZDJPY continues to tread water..... {image} I will hold over. Have a good weekend.
Hey could you plz share your indicators? Thanks.
  • #3,466
  • Edited 4:29pm Aug 30, 2019 4:15pm | Edited 4:29pm
Quoting sandecoconut
{quote} Hey could you plz share your indicators? Thanks.
Got them all here really. One is a Script by Emmanuel.

Cheeers.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Currency Strength Giraia 28 pairs TRO MODIFIED.mq4   22 KB | 339 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 pipsometer_decimal_edit_2.mq4   4 KB | 330 downloads
  • #3,467
  • Aug 30, 2019 4:40pm Aug 30, 2019 4:40pm
Moving Average Crossover Indicator (EMA v Hull)

This is a Moving Average Cross Indicator that I picked up here on FF.
The Developer has posted the Source Code so I have replaced the Fast MA with the Hull Moving Average.
I use this to alert me (by email) whenever there is a (5EMA/Hull) Crossover.
With the alert, I can then check if there is a valid trade setup.

I'm posting the original file, together with my updated version.

Use it, if it floats your boat; re-code as you wish

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ma_cross_alert_once_b.mq4   9 KB | 366 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ma_cross_alert_once_b v1.1.mq4   10 KB | 411 downloads


See you in September!.
  • #3,468
  • Aug 30, 2019 5:06pm Aug 30, 2019 5:06pm
Quoting itsDavid
Probably worth noting I used to be a pro poker player so I take quite a long term viewpoint mathematically, and give little or no credibility to short term data, since it's never reflective of long term results. All that matters is if you're making the right moves, even when those moves don't have the effect you hoped they would they were still right. And even when making the right move loses, you still profit from it. Because maths, lol
Trading using these indicators is a game of odds. It’s not maths as such. The odds are in your favour if they are used correctly. There will be losses of course, but if you catch a decent trend at it’s start, you’ll make up for the losses. Use these tools to put odds in your favour.
  • #3,469
  • Aug 30, 2019 6:13pm Aug 30, 2019 6:13pm
Quoting Viv108
{quote} Trading using these indicators is a game of odds. It’s not maths as such. The odds are in your favour if they are used correctly. There will be losses of course, but if you catch a decent trend at it’s start, you’ll make up for the losses. Use these tools to put odds in your favour.
What you're describing is exactly what I was describing. And exactly what I did as a poker player. And all of it is very much based on maths. Odds are literally a mathematical system, and when you make the right decision and they go against you anyway you have to remember that since your decision was correct, you did exactly the right thing regardless of the outcome. Always make the correct move and the results will take care of themselves, that's a mathematical certainty.
  • #3,470
  • Aug 31, 2019 12:55am Aug 31, 2019 12:55am
Quoting DiamondMiner
{quote} Barraka, I do not know what your doing? , but it's not possible to get those results if you had followed the rules. P
Of course it is. The trades I have taken were when all the indicators were aligned (sto, rsi, hull...). Now remember, go back to post #1: "what's UNUSUAL about my templates is that there is not just one, or just two or even 10 ways to trade them". "A system has concrete rules with no variables. Methods don't."

And that's why you should learn a method by demoing, to give you time to get used to it, learn the intricacies, and overall get better overtime. Don't forget it's not a mechanical system.

Quoting itsDavid
{quote}It certainly looks likely he isn't following good management rules given the position sizes.
Given the position sizes, regarding to what? You do know that position size should be relative to the account size? In this case, from the very start, every trade has been taken with at 1% risk, so very well in line with MM rules.
"It looks like someone taking lottery chances." - lol.

Quoting foureggs
{quote} but July-August are low volume which mean no strong trend develop most of the time
You are correct, had it been a real account, I would have not have traded as much during this period. My goal here is to have a large volume of trades, to get a better feel of the method. IMO, that's what someone should do, to better get through the learning curve of a method, and get more trades under one's belt. The more you take trades, the more you make mistakes, the more you learn from them. As long as each trade is in line with, in this case, all the indicators.
  • #3,471
  • Aug 31, 2019 1:57am Aug 31, 2019 1:57am
Quoting Barraka
{quote} Of course it is. The trades I have taken were when all the indicators were aligned (sto, rsi, hull...). Now remember, go back to post #1: "what's UNUSUAL about my templates is that there is not just one, or just two or even 10 ways to trade them". "A system has concrete rules with no variables. Methods don't." And that's why you should learn a method by demoing, to give you time to get used to it, learn the intricacies, and overall get better overtime. Don't forget it's not a mechanical system. {quote} Given the position sizes, regarding...
Barraka, What is Demo or live? I think it's better just to focus on just one or two pairs, you have way to many to get a learning curve on how each pair reacts...Remember the lot size must be proportionate to you bank roll otherwise you'd get a margin call then your toast. Also, I use 50-1 Leverage. Sometimes it's the little things that could be the kiss of death. Slow Down, your going to get it....Patience....
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #3,472
  • Aug 31, 2019 3:06am Aug 31, 2019 3:06am
[quote=Barraka;12476004]{quote} Given the position sizes, regarding to what? You do know that position size should be relative to the account size? In this case, from the very start, every trade has been taken with at 1% risk, so very well in line with MM rules. "It looks like someone taking lottery chances." - lol. {quote}

Position size isn't just relative to account size, it's also relative to the specific risk of the trade, IE how far away your stop loss is. I wonder if you took that into account?

In order for those position sizes to be close to correct I am assume that you're demo'ng a 100k account, which would make your downswing a total of 1.6%, not exactly a significant number really.
  • #3,473
  • Edited 4:18am Aug 31, 2019 3:44am | Edited 4:18am
I've had multiple private messages asking me what I think about someone in another thread disparaging my methods. Here's my answer to all of you...

Self-Proclaimed "PROFESSIONAL TRADERS"...

1. Don't lose 40+% of their account in less than a month.

2. Don't radically switch methods/strategies during a "losing patch".

3. Don't go off on 40 minute long public rants whining about what other traders say or do.

4. Don't blame the market for their losses.

"To Give Advice Without Professional Expertise Shows Arrogant Ignorance"
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #3,474
  • Aug 31, 2019 3:52am Aug 31, 2019 3:52am
Quoting RobinHood
I've had multiple private messages asking me what I think about someone in another thread disparaging my methods. Here's my answer to all of you... Self-Proclaimed "PROFESSIONAL TRADERS"... 1. Don't lose 40+% of their account in less than a month. 2. Don't radically switch methods/strategies during a "losing patch". 3. Don't go off on 40 minute long public rants whining about what other traders say or do. "To Give Advice Without Professional Expertise Shows Arrogant Ignorance"
Personally I haven't seen the thread. I'm sorry that you're having to defend the information and help you're giving people for free, and out of the goodness of your heart. It's ridiculous that you're in this position.
  • #3,475
  • Aug 31, 2019 8:10am Aug 31, 2019 8:10am
Quoting RobinHood
I've had multiple private messages asking me what I think about someone in another thread disparaging my methods. Here's my answer to all of you... Self-Proclaimed "PROFESSIONAL TRADERS"... 1. Don't lose 40+% of their account in less than a month. 2. Don't radically switch methods/strategies during a "losing patch". 3. Don't go off on 40 minute long public rants whining about what other traders say or do. 4. Don't blame the market for their losses. "To Give Advice Without Professional Expertise Shows Arrogant Ignorance"
I hope this doesn’t make you leave here. You gave me such great insights in forex trading with your methods and hope you will keep posting your insights and tips here
  • #3,476
  • Aug 31, 2019 10:39am Aug 31, 2019 10:39am
I’v read most of the pages of this thread and a question pops up for RH. But also for the other members in this thread:
Do you take currency correlations into account? Maybe within your trading plan/entry rules?
I didn’t see that discussed throughout this thread yet.

Thanks for reply and have a great weekend all...
  • #3,477
  • Aug 31, 2019 10:59am Aug 31, 2019 10:59am
Quoting Amateur4Ever
I’v read most of the pages of this thread and a question pops up for RH. But also for the other members in this thread: Do you take currency correlations into account? Maybe within your trading plan/entry rules? I didn’t see that discussed throughout this thread yet. Thanks for reply and have a great weekend all...
My focus is getting the RH method working for me and getting my demo account growing. I am aware of correlations but my main interest at the moment is improving my trades and minimizing the losing ones. I recently had some good 2R wins in July, August not so good, so for me the RH method is a success. The fact that the August market threw us a wobbler needs some attention, maybe the advanced techniques can help us sort this out.
Anyway stay focused guys, keep it professional and try to keep personal attacks out of this thread.
  • #3,478
  • Aug 31, 2019 11:14am Aug 31, 2019 11:14am
@Amateur4Ever

Yes it has been discussed in this thread with Emmanuel sharing his pair groups and noting he tries to avoid trading 2 or more pairs in the same group I think….. he’ll have to confirm that to be precise.
It would be wise to take into account currency correlations because it is important in risk management and therefore not over-trading, it can help you avoid using your margin on less desirable assets.
For your convenience: see pairs below from @Emmanuel, I've also attached an indi kindly provided by @Swingman
Group#1
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCAD

Group#2
EURAUD
EURNZD
EURCAD
EURGBP***

Group#3
GBPAUD
GBPNZD
GBPCAD

Group#4
USDJPY
AUDJPY
EURJPY
GBPJPY

Group#5
AUDCAD
AUDNZD
NZDCAD

Goodluck.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 smCorrelation MultiPairs_v2.mq4   32 KB | 429 downloads
The more you learn, the more you see
  • #3,479
  • Aug 31, 2019 11:48am Aug 31, 2019 11:48am
Thanks guys for your answers and thank you Marcusv007 for the indicator. I will use it. There still so much to learn for me. All the things you have to take into account to minimize your risk.
  • #3,480
  • Aug 31, 2019 12:06pm Aug 31, 2019 12:06pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} My focus is getting the RH method working for me and getting my demo account growing. I am aware of correlations but my main interest at the moment is improving my trades and minimizing the losing ones. I recently had some good 2R wins in July, August not so good, so for me the RH method is a success. The fact that the August market threw us a wobbler needs some attention, maybe the advanced techniques can help us sort this out. Anyway stay focused guys, keep it professional and try to keep personal attacks out of this thread.
My 2 cents, only food for thought from my account of August.
Advanced techniques [perhaps you speak of RH's pilot project] (the beauty of the method is in the simplicity compared to all that hours of chart analyzing, charts overloaded with various tools

The market in all its righteousness gave us a period of varying conditions that I think needed patience, some days I didn't even trade ... i have a new found patience for the right conditions and or opportunities to trade. I'd rather preserve my account.

You wouldn't try fly a kite without the right windy conditions I believe the same to be trend trading. Perhaps refining focus to a couple pairs when the market isn't right for our preferred trading method. Ranging markets , iliquid markets amongst various global economic conditions that change on a daily basis even affecting currency correlations.... its fine to sit patiently. Rather than the market tricking you into trying to adapt to its current mood.

Nial Fuller won the 1million dollar trading competition and this is what he said, link below...

“It was a tough competition and there were volatile market conditions during the 3 months of trading. Winning the competition was a balance of finding quality trading opportunities, applying sophisticated money management and having the discipline not to trade and risk giving up the lead,”

FULL article here: https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...ller-forex-bio
The more you learn, the more you see
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