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Stop Hunting using Sentiment and Market Structure

  • #41
  • Aug 29, 2019 1:43pm Aug 29, 2019 1:43pm
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} AUDUSD and NZDUSD (currently overlapping) are in the strong sell area, and definitely trade-able. If I were to trade them I would just aim for sell side, looking at stops and using market structure to enter/scale in and exit/scale out. I choose EURUSD because it had retail piling in long over time faster than any other currency. That's why it was such a huge bubble on that graphic I showed. Current Sentiment {image}
Thank you. Where do you get the sentiment data/graphic from?

Maybe this is a really silly question, but how do you decide when you are wrong?

For example, at the moment AUDUSD with a decent entry (say 6750) has about as much upside risk as downside potential. I mean assuming retail sentiment stays as long and the price goes up where do you stop selling?

I'm usually looking to have stop losses behind extremes which if/when broken are usually well broken. Losing is rubbish but having a stop loss on a day H/L is bad enough I don't know how you go about trading in the middle of the "range"!
Hypocrite lecteur, mon semblable, mon frere!
  • #42
  • Aug 29, 2019 2:05pm Aug 29, 2019 2:05pm
Quoting SentiFX
If you've traded the markets for any amount of time, you will likely feel like someone is out there hunting your stops. You may feel like your trades are constantly being targeted. For everyone else, the journey of thinking differently is about to begin.
Hi SentiFX,

Thanks for starting this topic. Subscribed and look forward for more trade setups based on Price levels and sentiments.
-happyTrading-myFx.
  • #43
  • Aug 29, 2019 3:44pm Aug 29, 2019 3:44pm
Quoting Shabs19
Interesting graphic, is it software based or Freehand drawing ?
It's software that another trader and myself developed so we could track and analyze retail positioning over time. It's more important to know how retail positioning is increasing and decreasing over time - and how fast - than to just know the current positioning at this very time.
  • #44
  • Aug 29, 2019 3:50pm Aug 29, 2019 3:50pm
Quoting tinnitus
{quote} Thank you. Where do you get the sentiment data/graphic from? Maybe this is a really silly question, but how do you decide when you are wrong? For example, at the moment AUDUSD with a decent entry (say 6750) has about as much upside risk as downside potential. I mean assuming retail sentiment stays as long and the price goes up where do you stop selling? I'm usually looking to have stop losses behind extremes which if/when broken are usually well broken. Losing is rubbish but having a stop loss on a day H/L is bad enough I don't know how...
Tinnitus, I trade with low leverage (I think that is the death of most retail). Typically my trades end up in the range of about 6:1 once scaled all the way in. Stops are large and are just for black swan events really. If price action/market structure is showing I'm wrong, I get out where I know I'm proved wrong. But if price moves as expected, I set my targets at stop base, at stop liquidity, and beyond the stop zone. I trail by 2 swings.

Why 2 swings? The EURUSD example is a good reason. If price is having a hard time pushing to where it needs to go, it has to clear the current shorts out first.... and get more people long so it can take their stops creating a double selling pressure to achieve the goal.

Also, even if it is an orderflow change, after first swing is taken, usually price will fall again (using EURUSD example) so after the first swing is taken, I move my stops there ... because there is a chance that the stops were taken just to keep selling down. But if orderflow changed for whatever reason, my stops would get taken out where they would have anyway (at first swing at this point) as if I had them there in the first place. Again, putting probabilities in your favor. Letting the trade play out.

I'll talk more about this in the future and show examples.
  • #45
  • Aug 29, 2019 3:51pm Aug 29, 2019 3:51pm
Quoting myfx
{quote} Hi SentiFX, Thanks for starting this topic. Subscribed and look forward for more trade setups based on Price levels and sentiments.
Thanks myfx, good to have you here!
  • #46
  • Aug 29, 2019 3:57pm Aug 29, 2019 3:57pm
Sub'd, thanks for starting this thread. Hunting liquidity is one of the safest ways to trade, and retail sentiment is a great way to gauge overall direction of a market. Looking forward to more of your posts SentiFX, good stuff man.
  • #47
  • Aug 29, 2019 4:33pm Aug 29, 2019 4:33pm
Interesting topic, I will follow.

This topic is my main interest here on FF and I've got a similar thread.

So what is your data source?
Is this commercial? (due to your name and website content) are you a commercial member or private person/trader?
  • #48
  • Aug 30, 2019 12:17am Aug 30, 2019 12:17am
Subscribed. Not fully agree with your concept but who knows, maybe I will take away something useful for me.
Good luck with your thread.
  • #49
  • Aug 30, 2019 12:19am Aug 30, 2019 12:19am
It means that we can start looking for SHORT, right?
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  • #50
  • Aug 30, 2019 12:33am Aug 30, 2019 12:33am
You can get data of retail sentiments over here. https://fxssi.com/ , you can thank me later.

What Im looking for is volume of retail sentiment by timeframe, If someone knows an indicator, That would be nice.

I like contrarian style of trading but you need to know where your entry is

It can work most of the time but not always..
  • #51
  • Aug 30, 2019 1:07am Aug 30, 2019 1:07am
I guess this is a good situation to consider shorting according to your strategy
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  • #52
  • Aug 30, 2019 1:12am Aug 30, 2019 1:12am
Quoting MarkStep
You can get data of retail sentiments over here. https://fxssi.com/ , you can thank me later. What Im looking for is volume of retail sentiment by timeframe, If someone knows an indicator, That would be nice. I like contrarian style of trading but you need to know where your entry is It can work most of the time but not always..
Yes it is decent, especially the DOM snapshots but the times can be a bit random. Have you tried any of the MT4 indicators?

What do you mean retail sentiment by timeframe? Retail traders are either net long or short. They are all trading all timeframes regardless of what timeframe they think they are trading! Maybe I'm misunderstanding...
Hypocrite lecteur, mon semblable, mon frere!
  • #53
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:21am Aug 30, 2019 3:21am
Hi, SentiFX. EURUSD achieved its target and dropped some more pips yesterday, I suppose it was, because sellers triggered their sell stops and buyers should noticed that too (if I am wrong please correct me). Now the pair has another one target to reach at 1.1026 maybe and 1.10000 until it reverses - I suppose.

Now the reason I write this post is not the above is a question that bothers me from the time I have seen some difference in my trading using sentiment, I have more confidence following a trend after a turn. Do you have a bias on pairs? Example would you buy EURUSD after Fridays advance, or you are only selling this pair and if, you have a bias what other tool/s except fundamental news and major banks you are using to achieve better results?

This is a question that can be answered and from other members of this forum too, stay free.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #54
  • Edited 10:02am Aug 30, 2019 3:47am | Edited 10:02am
Edit: Apologies to all.
Hypocrite lecteur, mon semblable, mon frere!
  • #55
  • Aug 30, 2019 6:07am Aug 30, 2019 6:07am
Quoting SentiFX
{quote} AUDUSD and NZDUSD (currently overlapping) are in the strong sell area, and definitely trade-able. If I were to trade them I would just aim for sell side, looking at stops and using market structure to enter/scale in and exit/scale out. I choose EURUSD because it had retail piling in long over time faster than any other currency. That's why it was such a huge bubble on that graphic I showed. Current Sentiment {image}
The issue is we don't have your software so we can't do your sentiment analysises.

There is already another guy here on FF called "FractalFreak" that he uses custom software developed for him to detect where retail traders SL are and like you he trades toward that SLs.
  • #56
  • Aug 30, 2019 6:34am Aug 30, 2019 6:34am
Good Morning Traders & Happy Friday!

Typically, I do not trade on Fridays unless any trade I’m in hasn’t played out by now. I will monitor sentiment Sunday and Monday and likely take another Trade on Tuesday or Wednesday.

I would like to address the concerns of some of the folks who have posted here:
At no time did I say that I was offering any service here.

What I DID say is that I was going to show you how to hunt stops either for entries or exits using sentiment and market structure.

When I post setups, sentiment, and trade ideas, take it for what it is. You can observe it, trade it, learn from it, etc.

If you are NOT interested in any of that, there are other threads that you can participate in and you can always trade the way that you prefer to trade.

I freely showed sentiment, a trade that worked out very well, was shown in real time – not hindsight. I shared some ideas on how I thought about sentiment, liquidity and how to use market structure.

Hope that some have enjoyed, appreciated, and profited from it.

Have a Great Day and Weekend!
  • #57
  • Aug 30, 2019 8:29am Aug 30, 2019 8:29am
Sorry, but your username, then both you & Tinnitus joined in August 2019, then Tinnitus posting your website address etc.... Coincidence ?

I hope so.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #58
  • Aug 30, 2019 8:32am Aug 30, 2019 8:32am
Here is some food for thought.

This is retail positioning over time for this week.

It is not as smooth playback as I'd like it to be because I had to remove a lot of in-between frames to get it under the FF 2MB upload limit, but you get the point.

Retail constantly changing mind and getting whipsawed and stopped out.

You have to click the image to play it. It's an animated gif.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20190830.gif Size: 1.5 MB
  • #59
  • Aug 30, 2019 9:04am Aug 30, 2019 9:04am
Quoting Shabs19
Sorry, but your username, then both you & Tinnitus joined in August 2019, then Tinnitus posting your website address etc.... Coincidence ? I hope so.
Definitely not, I just searched for his username. And I wasn't overly impressed.

I'll leave this thread from now, but I'd like to point out that I was essentially attacking the idea of paying for his service (or any service as I politely put it). I wish now I hadn't been as polite and indirect in my attack.

He claims he's not selling anything but he's showing us bubbles of his proprietary algo and claiming it sees how fast sentiment changes and that is an important thing that you need to consider.

I'm certainly not the one trying to sell anything here. My computer is fine btw I was also being polite - his website is a mare.
Hypocrite lecteur, mon semblable, mon frere!
  • #60
  • Aug 30, 2019 9:56am Aug 30, 2019 9:56am
Quoting tinnitus
{quote} Definitely not, I just searched for his username. And I wasn't overly impressed. I'll leave this thread from now, but I'd like to point out that I was essentially attacking the idea of paying for his service (or any service as I politely put it). I wish now I hadn't been as polite and indirect in my attack. He claims he's not selling anything but he's showing us bubbles of his proprietary algo and claiming it sees how fast sentiment changes and that is an important thing that you need to consider. I'm certainly not the one trying to sell...
Then I suggest you delete the website address from that post.
It has happened in the past where the OP would use another member to do the publicity to avert suspicion on himself.
As I said coincidence that both of you joined FF at the same month.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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