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EURUSD

  • #1,159,301
  • Aug 19, 2019 9:50am Aug 19, 2019 9:50am
Got a short in at 1.114 on the back of the strong USD data released last Thursday. Unless some deal breaks with Brexit over the next few weeks (which I doubt), or strong Eurozone figures are released on Thursday then I imagine the Euro continue down?

Currently aiming for a T/P of 1.062, with B/E already set.

I trade the weekly charts. Prefer placing fewer trades which I feel have a better probability of success.
  • #1,159,302
  • Edited 1:29pm Aug 19, 2019 12:44pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting auricforecas
Well as much as I like being right... and all.. been consistent with (down) trend direction, without the "maybe".. since 22JUL... and been posting/trading trend line chart(s) since 25JUL... I do not like this sudden ("radical") drops... They do not bring anything good... "unexpected" reversal/spikes are painful (if you do not know how to time them properly.. - which is very hard, I think).. So I would bet on reversal for at least 30PIPs (to like 1.1120) if not till 1.1169+ (to touch the merlins line, again)... otherwise, we are in some serious HAMMER-down...
I do not like the (current) market at all... My model recognised MASSIVE (buy) positions/pattern for/at the end of last week, beginning of this (but then... SHORT till 31OCT)... massive BUY moves to be exact, but nothing is happening... which means one of the following... (temp) "buy signal" from model is wrong or there are buys but are countered... OR... there will be MASSIVE up-spike very soon (ELSE: PAR(I)TY2019)... I really do not like this... something going on... Trump already used this opportunity to TWITT the slaughter of rates... of at least 1.00% + quantitive easing (toilet paper printing)... wtf man... ECB would be on LSD hearing this... printing machines would go into (core) meltdown... That is why... I STRONGLY "urge" market to rebound to "healthy"... 1.1120-1.1160+... with slow decline (resumed) from there... till the end of oct at which point the price would land at 1.1000... without much drama... DAILY (CHANGE) RATE is everything... slow enough that they can not be playing with fingers on the scale.. so much... But with this kind of drop(s)... they would have much less problem explaining/justifying.. playing the wizard(s) of OZ.. yea.. the prison facility edition

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...72272612626433
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...72273388576768

P.S. If the rebound to the price I mentioned above does not happen this week (should have already.. or within 25h...)... Then I believe we will PARTY to till/the PARITY... #PAR(I)TY... till the (end of) December (end of 2019)...
Inserted Video


Therefore... I strongly advise rebound and continuing with slow decline..
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,159,303
  • Aug 19, 2019 3:06pm Aug 19, 2019 3:06pm
yeah I know this is a very basic line on EURUSD daily, however I believe it's got what it takes to produce a big reversal.
Next move is very likely 1000-1300(1350), possible tech overshoot near 0975 I can't rule that out.
DXY is getting very very overextended and running on borrowed time now.
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  • #1,159,304
  • Aug 19, 2019 3:25pm Aug 19, 2019 3:25pm
bears will learn a lesson in school of hard knocks when price gets close to 1000 this week.
  • #1,159,305
  • Aug 19, 2019 3:27pm Aug 19, 2019 3:27pm
Quoting asgcorp
bears will learn a lesson in school of hard knocks when price gets close to 1000 this week.
bulls are still trying to buy in a bear market
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,159,306
  • Aug 19, 2019 3:30pm Aug 19, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} bulls are still trying to buy in a bear market
you know there are two buttons in my terminal I can buy and sell when I want to.
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  • #1,159,307
  • Aug 19, 2019 3:43pm Aug 19, 2019 3:43pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} you know there are two buttons in my terminal I can buy and sell when I want to. {image}
sure, but only one button is profitable at this time and that is SELL as shown on the chart lol
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,159,308
  • Aug 19, 2019 4:01pm Aug 19, 2019 4:01pm
bulls will be trapped after these events

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very likely that 1.10 will be broken and below, 1.08 is the next reasonable target, followed by 1.04

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Germany and the rest of the EU countries are entering a recession while the US is still strong
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,159,309
  • Aug 19, 2019 4:10pm Aug 19, 2019 4:10pm
example of where the banks got it wrong about the EUR/USD forecast from an article published on 17 April 2019

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eu...ullish-outlook

Quote
Strategists at Nordea Bank have meanwhile this week told clients the EUR/USD exchange rate will probably rise to 1.1800 by the middle of the year as liquidity surges.

looks like they were very wrong lol, the other banks are no different and many retail traders lost money following such advice
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,159,310
  • Aug 19, 2019 5:04pm Aug 19, 2019 5:04pm
maybe-h1-senario
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  • #1,159,311
  • Aug 20, 2019 2:39am Aug 20, 2019 2:39am
hypothesis1
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At its best, change itself becomes a lifestyle.
  • #1,159,312
  • Aug 20, 2019 3:05am Aug 20, 2019 3:05am
Quoting MrPresident
example of where the banks got it wrong about the EUR/USD forecast from an article published on 17 April 2019 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eu...ullish-outlook {quote} looks like they were very wrong lol, the other banks are no different and many retail traders lost money following such advice
Yep Banks underestimated the power of the devil, plus they didn't take into account that the devils has a tweeter account too.


Happy Trading
Trades technical moves enforced by fundamentals
  • #1,159,313
  • Aug 20, 2019 4:21am Aug 20, 2019 4:21am
Quoting olderekg
hypothesis1 {image} {image}
I expect a rectrace to 1.1150 area.

From there i buy short nut we have later major events with powell so spikes are coming.

Still downtrend is the wright direction.
  • #1,159,314
  • Aug 20, 2019 4:30am Aug 20, 2019 4:30am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} I expect a rectrace to 1.1150 area. From there i buy short nut we have later major events with powell so spikes are coming. Still downtrend is the wright direction.
yes odds of a minor recovery north is getting stronger
  • #1,159,315
  • Aug 20, 2019 4:33am Aug 20, 2019 4:33am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} I expect a rectrace to 1.1150 area. From there i buy short nut we have later major events with powell so spikes are coming. Still downtrend is the wright direction.
so are you expecting a big down spike adding to the already downward trend
defeat can still be profitable
  • #1,159,316
  • Aug 20, 2019 4:39am Aug 20, 2019 4:39am
just follow momentum and collect what the price gives ; prediction never works
  • #1,159,317
  • Aug 20, 2019 4:40am Aug 20, 2019 4:40am
Quoting PatienceFx
just follow momentum and collect what the price gives ; prediction never works
i trade m15 waves and end up collecting more safely
  • #1,159,318
  • Aug 20, 2019 4:49am Aug 20, 2019 4:49am
Quoting john-smith
{quote} so are you expecting a big down spike adding to the already downward trend
We have jackson Hole later this week.
I think untill that nothing much is going to happen.
What powell will say about interst cut or hiking,nobody knows.

So no trading on that pair,but i expect long term downtrend still intact.

We have also ECB later this week,it will be volatile for sure.
  • #1,159,319
  • Aug 20, 2019 5:23am Aug 20, 2019 5:23am
Quoting 3Davy
{quote} We have jackson Hole later this week. I think untill that nothing much is going to happen. What powell will say about interst cut or hiking,nobody knows. So no trading on that pair,but i expect long term downtrend still intact. We have also ECB later this week,it will be volatile for sure.
yeah I agree on that, just wanted to know your thought process
defeat can still be profitable
  • #1,159,320
  • Aug 20, 2019 6:07am Aug 20, 2019 6:07am
i m bored
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