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Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

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Trading Made Simple(r)

  • #3,021
  • Edited 3:25am Aug 15, 2019 3:06am | Edited 3:25am
Quoting vortexz
{quote} They were in the money at some point but they weren't all winners It's easy to take some trades and post a screenshot of them when some of them are in the money It's much harder to post a whole trading history that proves you are being profitable in the long run, let's say 6-12-18 months or more
LOL you are aware that this thread started in May 2019 right? You use the method and it works for you or it doesnt.

Nothing here is set in GOLD, so you wont find it I'm afraid.
The more you learn, the more you see
  • #3,022
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:07am Aug 15, 2019 3:07am
Quoting vortexz
{quote} Then, if you have to guess which ones to take or not and rely on luck, it means the strategy doesn't work
This thread started in May 2019, how many years do you want back testing
  • #3,023
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:10am Aug 15, 2019 3:10am
The basket-type operations they published are only valid for the moment they were brought to market.
simply with a difference of 15 minutes the market changes and what one earns another loses, with the same basket.
Try, do not think you are wrong, that is what demo accounts are for.
  • #3,024
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:20am Aug 15, 2019 3:20am
Quoting vortexz
{quote} No, you don't understand what I'm saying Nobody is showing the strategy is working long-term, that's what i'm saying Posting only the winning trades doesn't prove anything If you are so offended by what i'm saying, just prove i'm wrong by showing a real trade history of more than just 6 months that is showing how profitable this strategy this is Even more, RH or anyone else from this thread can open a trader account on ZuluTrade on MyFXbook where all trading history is being verified then we would all see how profitable the strategy can...
RH says he has nothing to prove to anyone.
  • #3,025
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:22am Aug 15, 2019 3:22am
Quoting chrisoko
{quote} RH says he has nothing to prove to anyone.

Yeah, because it's a shenangian
They speak about how great traders they are but they don't prove anything
Get it ?
  • #3,026
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:25am Aug 15, 2019 3:25am
Quoting vortexz
{quote} Yeah, because it's a shenangian They speak about how great traders they are but they don't prove anything Get it ?
Then if you think the system MIGHT have merit, why don't you collect your own data and decide from your results if it is profitable for you???

I am not a great trader. I look for 10 pips a day. I opened a Trade Explorer where you can see if it is winning or losing. It has only been running a few weeks, but is this also just luck because I don't post a historical record of at least 6 months from a live account? Ah, maybe I was able to hack the Trade Explorer and get those results. Of course!
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #3,027
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:31am Aug 15, 2019 3:31am
4 trades last night on h4 and all loser again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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first chart audsgd
second chart audusd
third chart gbpaud
four chart nzdusd
  • #3,028
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:33am Aug 15, 2019 3:33am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Then if you think the system MIGHT have merit, why don't you collect your own data and decide from your results if it is profitable for you??? I am not a great trader. I look for 10 pips a day. I opened a Trade Explorer where you can see if it is winning or losing. It has only been running a few weeks, but is this also just luck because I don't post a historical record of at least 6 months from a live account? Ah, maybe I was able to hack the Trade Explorer and get those results. Of course!
Thats why we are here. To decide if this system has merit. First impressions say yes so I am sticking with it for the time being
  • #3,029
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:34am Aug 15, 2019 3:34am
Quoting forexdg
4 trades last night on h4 and all loser again {image} {image} {image} {image} first chart audsgd second chart audusd third chart gbpaud four chart nzdusd
Analyzing losing trades is one of the best ways to learn some of the weaknesses of a system, and then see if you can find a way to improve the outcome.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #3,030
  • Aug 15, 2019 4:11am Aug 15, 2019 4:11am
Liquidity in market is very low this summer, hence the low volatility in the market. All trading methods are having their bad days.
  • #3,031
  • Aug 15, 2019 4:18am Aug 15, 2019 4:18am
Quoting olisavictor
Liquidity in market is very low this summer, hence the low volatility in the market. All trading methods are having their bad days.
All trading methods have bad days no matter the volatility. I think your implication is that most trading methods will be having a larger number of bad days than occur during higher volatility periods, no?

Maybe just looking for 10 pips a day could still give good results during low volatility... see for yourself.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #3,032
  • Aug 15, 2019 4:34am Aug 15, 2019 4:34am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} All trading methods have bad days no matter the volatility. I think your implication is that most trading methods will be having a larger number of bad days than occur during higher volatility periods, no? Maybe just looking for 10 pips a day could still give good results during low volatility... see for yourself.
Another new Truck for Dave
  • #3,033
  • Aug 15, 2019 5:33am Aug 15, 2019 5:33am
Quoting forexdg
4 trades last night on h4 and all loser again {image} {image} {image} {image} first chart audsgd second chart audusd third chart gbpaud four chart nzdusd
You have very tight stop loss. Try to increase it to 2 candles before entry candle. When you increase your stop loss you can use RH's method to trail SL 2 candle back (I always trail SL until I reach break even or get stopped out). Check post 16 about this.
In addition you can use daily time-frame to make sure that you following the trend: Check that most of the indicators in lower window agrees with those of 4H (in your gbpaud trade I think daily and 4H indicators wasn't on the same side of the 50 line).
  • #3,034
  • Edited 5:51am Aug 15, 2019 5:36am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting forexdg
4 trades last night on h4 and all loser again ... first chart audsgd, second chart audusd, third chart gbpaud, four chart nzdusd
I do not trade, but in the analysis of your entrys I see that the chart and oscillator signals are ok.

What is missing is the avoidance of sideways trends, and here in thread many experienced traders have made recommendations!

You can also just use the ADX(20,20), and I've posted as help the DoubleHMA indicator (#Post 2761).
You can see that the first three trades should not be done because ADX was under 20 or/and against the trend of the HMA(120).
The period 120 for HMA for the timeframe H4 corresponds to the weekly trend, and W1 is for me the upper timeframe for H4.

The fourth trade was done according to RH's rules, and you could also get out a bit earlier at the yellow MA.
Attached Images
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File Type: mq4 smDoubleHullMA_v1.mq4   7 KB | 508 downloads
  • #3,035
  • Aug 15, 2019 5:49am Aug 15, 2019 5:49am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} I do not trade, but in the analysis of your entrys I see that the chart and oscillator signals are ok. What is missing is the avoidance of sideways trends, and here in thread many experienced traders have made recommendations! You can also just use the ADX(20,20), and I've posted as help the DoubleHMA indicator (#Post 2761). You can see that the first three trades should not be done because ADX was under 20 or/and against the trend of the HMA(120). The period 120 for HMA for the timeframe H4 corresponds to the weekly trend, and W1 is...
Interesting. HMA(96) is large enough for me.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #3,036
  • Edited 7:18am Aug 15, 2019 5:56am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting vortexz
I am wondering if this is a shenangian here ... I've been doing this strategy for a while already and I get mroe losses than wins I am applying the trades 100% correctly Even those trades posted to RH earlier sucked I don't see anyone having a real proof that is profitable on long-term, they are just posing a few trades here and there and bragging about this strategy, but absolutely noone is showing a real account statement that proves they are being profitable for more than 6-12 months
hi, imho, nobody has the obligation to show anyone that this method works for others nor proving it with evidence from third party... we should be thankful that at least someone share a method that works for himself, sounds logical and at least a person has benefited from this method...

DrDave posts above are really good, "Then if you think the system MIGHT have merit, why don't you collect your own data and decide from your results if it is profitable for you???" you can prove it by backtesting yourself even manually,and even forward testing it, then if it still doesnt work, try to spend your time and energy in something that is fruitful for you, rather than be so demanding, noone owe anyone here.. so that at least you can earn money from forex in the future..

my first 20 trades has a winning rate of only 20%, but net +1.8R, i'm not proud of it, ashamed by it, i want it to be 40% with a positive expectancy of 2... yet only 0.2... only 10% from target.. lol.. still sucks.. but i know it works, moreover also for the trades that i did not take in the real account, i entered them on demo and my demo has increased 11%... much larger than real account... lol but at least i know something is wrong with my exclusion process in selecting the CPs..

Quoting forexdg
4 trades last night on h4 and all loser again {image} {image} {image} {image} first chart audsgd second chart audusd third chart gbpaud four chart nzdusd
frankly, i dont know much about correlation, i only visit mataf correlation tool (free, google it..), then download the csv file then see if any currency has +/- correlation of 80% as stated by the web, then i would definitely not enter both currency, just one will do.. babypips.com, even suggested 60% is a strong correlation... so i choose my magic number 68%... lol...

(see the screenshot attached).. NZDUSD, AUDUSD and AUDSGD basically moves together, that is the D1 correlation, assuming that to reach my TP would require more than a day ADR... such that i would enter 0.5R max for GA, another 0.5R divided by three CP.. or i may enter 1R for GA, while the other is 1/3R each.. in such a way, the worst case scenario, i would only lose 1 -2R max... not 4R.. sounds just a little for the difference of 2R... what about if 1R is 5%? i would lose just 5% in total.. but others may lose 20%... how much % to get it back? i would only require 5.26%, others would require 25% to reach breakeven... and that is not a smart thing to do... forex is a marathon, not a sprint..

so imho, if you were to enter each trade for 1R, it would be greed and or fear of missing out.. somewhere in the posts before, it was mentioned that not the method is the most important, but it is psychology and money management (position sizing)... yes it sucks... but we got no other choice .. just aint good enough like those niche traders..
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  • #3,037
  • Aug 15, 2019 5:59am Aug 15, 2019 5:59am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Interesting. HMA(96) is large enough for me.
Sure, 96 is good.

I've calculated 6 H4 x 5 days x 4 weeks = 120, and that's about a month of H4 bars.

Next, comparing the HMA(120) with my posted MovingAverage_MTF, the median prices (weekly) agree good with the HMA ...
(See also the HMA(120) trend between the vertical period separators lines!)
  • #3,038
  • Aug 15, 2019 6:23am Aug 15, 2019 6:23am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} Sure, 96 is good. I've calculated 6 H4 x 5 days x 4 weeks = 120, and that's about a month of H4 bars. Next, comparing the HMA(120) with my posted MovingAverage_MTF, the median prices (weekly) agree good with the HMA ... (See also the HMA(120) trend between the vertical period separators lines!)
Yes, i have used those relationships before. But I have a more rigid use of even-multiples of timeframes, so I normally use NinjaTrader for charting so I can work with my non-standard time frames.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #3,039
  • Aug 15, 2019 6:33am Aug 15, 2019 6:33am
Quoting moRTaL
My first 20 trades has a winning rate of only 25%, but net +1.8R, i'm not proud of it, ashamed by it, i want it to be 40% with a positive expectancy of 2... yet only 0.2... only 10% from target.. lol..
Did you follow the rules of your system to achieve that? If you can say "yes", then there is absolutely nothing to be ashamed about having a positive balance, no matter that the win rate is so low.

No need to worry about want you WANT to see versus what you see now. Do you think that when world-class weightlifters were starting out that they were lifting anything close to what they lift in major competitions today? You are not Hercules, but you can certainly build yourself up to be able to compete with him.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #3,040
  • Aug 15, 2019 6:37am Aug 15, 2019 6:37am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Did you follow the rules of your system to achieve that? If you can say "yes", then there is absolutely nothing to be ashamed about having a positive balance, no matter that the win rate is so low. No need to worry about want you WANT to see versus what you see now. Do you think that when world-class weightlifters were starting out that they were lifting anything close to what they lift in major competitions today? You are not Hercules, but you can certainly build yourself up to be able to compete with him.
I see my empty wheelbarrow alongside Daves Truck
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