(binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont | Page 128 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

One trade per daily bar, or per X bars on current timeframe 0 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

Attachments: (binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont
Exit Attachments

(binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont

  • #2,541
  • Aug 13, 2019 4:40am Aug 13, 2019 4:40am
Quoting lordgbengs
Just thought to share some vitals from Neils's strategy that can be used in your daily,weekly and monthly analysis to earn decent income. One thing that is constant is the retail positioning from myfxbook and currency strength, every other thing confirms or invalidates this. As I trade kinda of long term I will sight a weekly example. For instance, as at end of last week, we look at our currency strength indicator (which ever one you use) and determine weak vs strong as shown below; {image} As you can see above, the week ended on a risk off mode...
nice strategy!
Be fearful when others are greedy
  • #2,542
  • Aug 13, 2019 6:02am Aug 13, 2019 6:02am
Quoting Neogenesis
I don’t disagree with you. However: - I’ve seen longs decrease by a few % - Price is moving up on 1hr - RSI went from 30 to 34 (and seems to be still going up) It should go back down; you’re looking for optimum entry. Gain your conviction from daily charts, drop to the 1hr for entry confirmation. Never short when a market is on its way up. There will be times the market catches you out, even when the numbers line up. Stay in the overall trend, but stay in the micro trends too. If it’s retracing up, don’t jump in too early. What I would be waiting...
Still climbing on the one hour, up 0.09% on the day so far.

This is exactly where you set resistance lines and note where it doesn’t break... it should cave in eventually.
  • #2,543
  • Edited 12:41pm Aug 13, 2019 12:30pm | Edited 12:41pm
Missed this!! easy 100pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 41 KB


Once position changes from net short to net long or vice versa, your directional bias changes against retail positioning, all the tools now come into play to determine your entry and exit. This is very important!
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,544
  • Aug 13, 2019 2:59pm Aug 13, 2019 2:59pm
Quoting Neogenesis
I’m getting PMs asking me when to enter.... Folks, I don’t proclaim to be an expert and I too get drawdown and occasionally pull a bad trade. I learnt through practice, although I have shared my views on how to determine entry points a myriad of times. If you’re asking when to enter trades I believe you should be demo trading only. I also mentioned when and how to enter literally only several posts ago. Please dont be lazy, read. Spend time with the charts. That’s when you learn the most. See how price reacts to order imbalance then you’ll understand...
Just to help here, like he said above don't be lazy read and read again. The following post helped me to refine my entry; Post,1226,1233,1240,1247 and 1254. Spend time with the charts experimenting until you find what works for you.
  • #2,545
  • Edited 9:54pm Aug 13, 2019 9:26pm | Edited 9:54pm
Quoting copi88
{quote} No doubt VWAP is a very useful tool and I do have it on my charts. Many of the banks use it as a way to calculate traders bonuses so if the trader is able to trade below VWAP for a long trade and visa versa they get bonus as they have traded below the average. This is why price will react off the vwap as there will be a queue of traders there waiting to get on. The momentum algos will also use VWAP, and will only look to go long above VWAP and short below VWAP.
Hi copi88
You have inspired me to study in depth the issue of intermarket, statistical arbitrage and how to give value to the instrument, in fact I have already read each and every one of your posts. Besides, I hope one day can take Ray's courses, not by the moment, I can't.
I am immersed in the fascinating vwap world and I have chosen as a guide to trader jperl in another forum and although his teachings date from 2007 approximately have a deep relevance today, I believe they are timeless universal principles.
Regarding this topic and knowing that you use vwap in your charts, I want to ask you if possible, what period do you use, in other words, how many candles in the past have your reference point? There are currently vwap tools (indicators) that can be "dragged" to the desired point but a guide on your part would greatly appreciate.
My second question is whether vwap is applicable to all markets and / or instruments or do you prefer one in particular, does big institutions think similarly?
Wish you a nice week, green pips and thank for your amazing contributions here.
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #2,546
  • Aug 14, 2019 5:25pm Aug 14, 2019 5:25pm
Hanover, I think your PMs are not switched on.

Would you consider undertaking some paid coding work? Let me know. :-)
  • #2,547
  • Aug 15, 2019 1:21am Aug 15, 2019 1:21am
Quoting venividivici
{image} https://twitter.com/fxcm_marketdata?lang=en
Where do you get reliable data of retail positions besides myfxbook. thanks!
  • #2,548
  • Aug 15, 2019 10:50am Aug 15, 2019 10:50am
Quoting MarkStep
{quote} Where do you get reliable data of retail positions besides myfxbook. thanks!
any good source you can find on google.. skim through a few of your selected ones and if they all show a clear sentiment use it.
  • #2,549
  • Aug 15, 2019 11:41am Aug 15, 2019 11:41am
Quiet market......
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,550
  • Edited 3:49pm Aug 15, 2019 3:09pm | Edited 3:49pm
What I am looking at.... appears set, retracement needed or full breakout if we see a risk off event.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 37 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 118 KB
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,551
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:49pm Aug 15, 2019 3:49pm
Quoting lordgbengs
What I am looking at.... appears set. {image} {image}
Me too
Trade what "Is", not what "If".
  • #2,552
  • Aug 15, 2019 4:03pm Aug 15, 2019 4:03pm
Quoting lordgbengs
What I am looking at.... appears set, retracement needed or full breakout if we see a risk off event. {image} {image}
Why vs the Singapore Dollar?
Trade what "Is", not what "If".
  • #2,553
  • Aug 15, 2019 4:14pm Aug 15, 2019 4:14pm
Quoting 4xu2
{quote} Why vs the Singapore Dollar?
negative correlation (-91%) between the pair.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,554
  • Aug 16, 2019 7:39am Aug 16, 2019 7:39am
Quoting Neogenesis
Be careful. This is where you can get stung. What microtrend is that? Up or down? It’s up! What if the next bars print up? You’re trapped... It’s climbed out of resistance, what’s key to know is where it heads next. Does it break through resistance and go up? Or break support on the way down? Old school price action following is critical when looking at entries. Also, what’s the blue indicator at the bottom? It’s also pointing upwards. Don’t sell into buying pressure, you don’t know how high it will go.
See what I mean? Cable went up over 1%

Always good to wait for a pullback. Put a 20 EMA on your chart. Mean reversion. When it starts to show some downside on the lower timeframes, it’s good to get in.

You’d have got burned just thinking the RSI and order imbalance was a good enough reason to enter.

Always, always think:

Is it expensive to buy? (Buying at the top)


Is it cheap to sell? (Selling at the bottom)

Despite preaching this and executing it well generally, I made the same mistake on EURAUD in buying at the top. I had made significant profit already and became greedy with two over leveraged entries. Bad news hit, it’s dropped. Once the downward pressure eases out and bullish price momentum resurrects, that’s the time to buy... in a pullback.

Take some profits off the table and set SL to break even when you’re in a good position.

Timing is the hardest lesson to learn. The market will make you feel like you’ve missed opportunities, occasionally you will blink and a market has dropped 1%. You will have FOMO and believe you need to execute quicker as to not miss out. Nope. Sit on the sidelines and catch the next move. I’m reminding myself of this right now.

The saving grace is that if you’re on the right side of the trend, you can usually set TP to break even and allow price to recover over time. But not always.
  • #2,555
  • Aug 16, 2019 7:42am Aug 16, 2019 7:42am
Quoting lordgbengs
What I am looking at.... appears set, retracement needed or full breakout if we see a risk off event. {image} {image}
Good analysis.

I caught EURUSD, EURCHF and EURJPY this week.

Follow the above folks and you’ll optimise those entries. Remember the market has to breathe. What goes down must come up, and vice versa. Don’t dive in.
  • #2,556
  • Aug 18, 2019 7:50am Aug 18, 2019 7:50am
Quoting Neogenesis
{quote} Good analysis. I caught EURUSD, EURCHF and EURJPY this week. Follow the above folks and you’ll optimise those entries. Remember the market has to breathe. What goes down must come up, and vice versa. Don’t dive in.
EChf seems not done yet? RSI is under 30 and SSI is still above 80. What do you think?
  • #2,557
  • Aug 18, 2019 7:58am Aug 18, 2019 7:58am
Quoting venividivici
Nice try stimpy https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB798GB798&biw=1366&bih=657&ei=pMRRXevzNcGe1fAPzbCxyAE&q=venividivici+forex&oq=venividivici+forex&gs_l=psy-ab.12...0.0..12190...0.0..0.0.0.......0......gws-wiz.........12%3A0j13%3A0.lom8Iwf5JDY&ved=0ahUKEwjr1bP2jv7jAhVBTxUIHU1YDBk4ChDh1QMICg Try and pick out one... or are they all me? Im in the uk, London to be exact, if you want and come and talk to me ill make some time for you. Stimpy virgin boy, heres a contrarian trade I took last week from a real account from Neils marvelous...
Which criterias do you use?
  • #2,558
  • Edited 8:47am Aug 18, 2019 8:17am | Edited 8:47am
Based on my currency strength EUR is the weakest and GBP is the strongest, retail positioning is net short in favour of GBP in the ratio 1:4. I will be watching the pair closely as weak sentiments surrounds the EUR.

Euro has more fundies news going into the week than GBP as french, german and euro pmis (all forecast weaker than previous) in addition to ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released on Thursday.

NB - Bearish engulfing candle on the weekly.

For contrarian trading it is time to start looking for long opportunities or wait for clarity as retail positioning might change.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 172 KB


Trade safe!
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #2,559
  • Aug 18, 2019 8:19am Aug 18, 2019 8:19am
Quoting tradur
{quote} EChf seems not done yet? RSI is under 30 and SSI is still above 80. What do you think?
Multiple time frame analysis is key

weekly: 190 pips downside to next level

daily: at key demand/support - means we might see some buying pressure from retail, price goes up, selling opportunity becomes greater and institutes smash it lower through support

4hr: congestion/tight range; this means watch for breakout

It’s going down. I think there’ll be some pips to gain on Sunday and then it will retrace during the week - although I would never recommend following my beliefs as I could be entirely wrong with my conviction. I wait until I see price confirming my thoughts before moving.

I don’t like to sell low (personally). You can miss some movements this way, but you also don’t lose which is so important in this game. Selling at this level will get you trapped. As mentioned above, I did the same with EURAUD. Even though I knew not to and had pulled profit already, greed/poor psychological control got the better of me and now I am trapped in that trade hoping it breaks even (it’s highly likely it will due to long term trend, fortunately).

Gbpjpy, gbpusd and gbpchf have made big bullish move upwards. We know they’re in strong downtrends. I am waiting for GBP to turn sour again.

Chart work and patience is important.
  • #2,560
  • Aug 18, 2019 8:25am Aug 18, 2019 8:25am
Quoting lordgbengs
Based on my currency strength EUR is the weakest and GBP is the strongest, retail positioning is net short in favour of GBP in the ratio 1:4. I will be watching the pair closely as weak sentiments surrounds the EUR. Euro has more fundies news going into the week than GBP as french, german and euro pmis (all forecast weaker than previous) in addition to ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released on Thursday. NB - Bearish engulfing candle on the weekly. For contrarian trading it is time to start looking for long opportunities or wait for...
I did arduous, painstaking research into currency strength fluctuations on every 4hr candle close over an extensive period of time.

I need to make better use of the data and do more analysis, but, the most obvious takeaway was that the two/three strongest currencies one week were the weakest the next.

Occasionally there were exceptions, but it let me know what to look out for. You don’t have to chase the dragon, let a weak currency have a strong run and capitalise on a pullback

The super weak GBP just gained ground against the two most solid currencies; JPY and CHF. Waiting for the next meltdown.
0 traders viewing now