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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #81,081
  • Aug 11, 2019 5:02pm Aug 11, 2019 5:02pm
Quoting john-smith
{quote} when was it? anyway for exemple Brexit, when Brexit was voted GBP drops but it was able to recover after a while plus it was already on a downward trend, news has an affect but not that much having said that the exemple of Brexit probably isn't the best as it did take months to recover but what I'm implying is that even from a major event the market recovered
The twit came out on Aug 1. I like many was already in a sell, but as you can see we still have not recovered from it. It took us out of an area of balance and down to the current one.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,082
  • Aug 11, 2019 5:19pm Aug 11, 2019 5:19pm
I don't think we came this far into the zone to not hit the bottom of it..
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,083
  • Aug 12, 2019 1:39am Aug 12, 2019 1:39am
Greetings everyone,

I suggest buying USDJPY at 105. 38 region (price has just touched this level).

Target 106.65

Stop loss : 50 pips
  • #81,084
  • Aug 12, 2019 2:53am Aug 12, 2019 2:53am
large operators collecting premium today, big expirations at NY cut.
105 won't be breached. 107 call writers, price won't get there today.

 

  1. 105.00 1.4bn USD
  2. 105.50 1.5bn
  3. 107.00 2.0bn

  • #81,085
  • Aug 12, 2019 2:56am Aug 12, 2019 2:56am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} The twit came out on Aug 1. I like many was already in a sell, but as you can see we still have not recovered from it. It took us out of an area of balance and down to the current one. {image}
I'm not sure that's only on trump though, if you look at every JPY exchange, that dip is present
defeat can still be profitable
  • #81,086
  • Aug 12, 2019 6:21am Aug 12, 2019 6:21am
10 pips from 105
TE started 6/4/19
  • #81,087
  • Aug 12, 2019 6:31am Aug 12, 2019 6:31am
protests in Hong Kong causing a sell-off in the markets

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/stoc...ted-level.html

Quote
Dow futures drop 200 points as US-China trade, Hong Kong protest tensions rise

But it looks like the sell-off is exaggerated and I think that there will be a bounce higher as USD/JPY nears 105 or 104.6
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,088
  • Aug 12, 2019 7:21am Aug 12, 2019 7:21am

  1. Risk-off and oil down should both underpin Japan's yen
  2. Traders long yen but not overly long IMM/FX, just USD 1.2bln
  3. USD/JPY shorts grew over 8 billion when USD/JPY last broke towards 100
  4. Huge stops below 105.00 barriers in focus but Japan will buy
  5. Lifers buying foreign bonds. Japan post too if USD/JPY near 100
  6. 200/100-MMAs 104.43/103.45. 100.59 is a 50% retr of rise from 75.31 in 2011

  • #81,089
  • Aug 12, 2019 7:31am Aug 12, 2019 7:31am
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-kong-invasion

Global Times Shows Dramatic Video Of Chinese Army Preparing For Hong Kong Invasion
  • #81,090
  • Aug 12, 2019 9:04am Aug 12, 2019 9:04am
10 am.. Possible TLSL rip higher to close out some shorting.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,091
  • Aug 12, 2019 2:41pm Aug 12, 2019 2:41pm
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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #81,092
  • Aug 12, 2019 7:17pm Aug 12, 2019 7:17pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Brought back above the tails before closing, Hmmm? {image}
Still good to go for more downside.

Next area of interest will be the 104.80 area. When (if) we get there, I will probably put stops above 105.10 but still targeting 104.60.

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Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #81,093
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:11pm Aug 12, 2019 8:11pm
Quoting john-smith
{quote} I'm not sure that's only on trump though, if you look at every JPY exchange, that dip is present
I agree, but anytime the dollar takes a hit, it has an effect on JPY. At least that has been my experience. IMO they offset to maintain what they consider to be a balance.
Someone else on this forum has a nice chart showing FOMC hits as well as twit hits. Worth a gander. He will probably post it again soon.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #81,094
  • Aug 13, 2019 4:08am Aug 13, 2019 4:08am
2.2 bln USD option at 105.00 expires NY cut, could be floor defense // barrier/
  • #81,095
  • Aug 13, 2019 5:00am Aug 13, 2019 5:00am
MUFG Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and maintains a bearish bias, expecting prices to keep declining at a slow pace towards 104.50.
Investors typically turn to JPY and CHF in averting risk. JPY selling by Japanese investors buying overseas assets is likely to support USDJPY at times, but the trend is for JPY strengthening, if only at a slow pace. However USD remains firm against RMB and other emerging country currencies and some G10 currencies, including AUD, which has softened on falling resource prices and developments with China," MUFG notes.

"Overall, though, USD is expected to weaken slightly, as another rate cut this year is increasingly factored in and with the 10Yr yield falling to 1.6%. We expect USDJPY to slowly decline, and it could break the 105 level on growing risk aversion," MUFG adds.
  • #81,096
  • Aug 13, 2019 5:25am Aug 13, 2019 5:25am
Absolutely, the bearishness is obvious but dangerous to dive into, cos you might get clipped.
  • #81,097
  • Aug 13, 2019 6:11am Aug 13, 2019 6:11am
I don't think it's obvious, cause I got a potential reversal setup on daily for UJ.
But entry is below 105.00.
Attached Image
  • #81,098
  • Aug 13, 2019 6:30am Aug 13, 2019 6:30am
105 is probably going to break and there will be a trend towards 100

This month is bad for risk-on and the tariffs that are to be placed on China in September is not good news

Trump may then follow with additional tariffs and then China will probably retaliate, which will be risk further negative

China may also roll in with the military to establish order in Hong Kong, which will be bad for the markets
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #81,099
  • Aug 13, 2019 6:41am Aug 13, 2019 6:41am
Coming from Nigeria, morning mates
  • #81,100
  • Aug 13, 2019 6:54am Aug 13, 2019 6:54am
Quoting Meindozah
Coming from Nigeria, morning mates
Happy to find you here my country mate
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