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Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

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Trading Made Simple(r)

  • #2,661
  • Edited 2:48am Aug 10, 2019 2:13am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Do not count your chickens before they're hatched, my friend. Do not disregard that drop quite a ways below the previous candle; it can still close below EMA5. But more importantly, where will the open be next week? {image}
@40PipsAlan, see on your AUDNZD chart that you have both HMA and EMA5 plotted. With that in mind, using EMA(5), price typical, shift 2 and HMA(12), AUDNZD HA Week open will be in the channel. Daily HA open will be above the channel. Won't quite have the other indicators signalling a buy on daily open, though.

It looks to me that there is still some more down movement to cycle through on smaller charts before the next worthwhile up move.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #2,662
  • Aug 10, 2019 2:38am Aug 10, 2019 2:38am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} @40PipsAlan, see on your AUDNZD chart that you have both HMA and EMA5 plotted. With that in mind, using EMA(5), price typical, shift 2 and HMA(12), AUDNZD HA Week open will be in the channel.
I guess that means my bias on AUDNZD weekly is neutral so we then look at the new daily open and decide from there? Maybe I will just wait for a H4 signal and decide then.
  • #2,663
  • Aug 10, 2019 3:08am Aug 10, 2019 3:08am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} @40PipsAlan, see on your AUDNZD chart that you have both HMA and EMA5 plotted. With that in mind, using EMA(5), price typical, shift 2 and HMA(12), AUDNZD HA Week open will be in the channel. Daily HA open will be above the channel. Won't quite have the other indicators signalling a buy on daily open, though. It looks to me that there is still some more down movement to cycle through on smaller charts before the next worthwhile up move.
that’s what we need to see more of. The thought processes of the experts when they look at the charts. I understand that not all trades go the way we want, but to have an idea of what we need to be watching for. Great stuff.
  • #2,664
  • Aug 10, 2019 5:12am Aug 10, 2019 5:12am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
that’s what we need to see more of. The thought processes of the experts when they look at the charts. I understand that not all trades go the way we want, but to have an idea of what we need to be watching for. Great stuff.
Yes, I too, look forward to the experts making commentary. Perhaps some day I will be competent enough to join their ranks.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #2,665
  • Aug 10, 2019 5:20am Aug 10, 2019 5:20am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Yes, I too, look forward to the experts making commentary. Perhaps some day I will be competent enough to join their ranks.
Modest DrDave with 23 wins in a row. Do your weekend homework whatever that means and you too will be good as me LOL
  • #2,666
  • Aug 10, 2019 6:06am Aug 10, 2019 6:06am
Quoting mtacki
{quote} Thank you emmauel for your thoughts ! I don‘t get the part with the daily close though.... My workflow is to scan the H4 charts for continuation setups. If I find any, I look at the corresponding daily ( and eventually weekly ) to see if the signal is with the main trend direction. When you say „your daily candle has 9 minutes to it‘s close“ it sounds like I‘m only supposed to trade the H4 at the beginning of a new daily candle ?? Best, Mark

Hi Mark

When I saw your EURGBP post and notice that the Daily candle has not close, I would normally wait till that daily candle closes then check if there are conditions for a trade setup. If not Daily setup, then the next task would be to check H4 and then every 4 hours to look for trade opportunities.

When I look at my charts I also pay attention to the price action of the price bars and the APB and HA candles. In this EURGBP example when I don't see the Daily bars/candles did not make higher high, I will look for H4 CONTINUATION trade setup.

Now with the market closed and we can already see the Weekly candle closed and we know what the market conditions are like and plan our trade for next week.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mtaki EURGBP D1 post 08-08-2019 17-21-51.png Size: 254 KB


on H4, there was a CONTINUATION setup... after the Daily pause on Aug 08.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP Week 32 H4 POMO 10-08-2019 19-05-23.png Size: 55 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,667
  • Aug 10, 2019 6:29am Aug 10, 2019 6:29am
Quoting whitesta
Hi Emmanuel, So looking at the Gbp/Usd u will be looking to sell next week as the closed weekly candle & heiken ashi was bearish. Unless there is a huge bullish Monday candle right? Regards Dennis

Hi whitesta

Yes. With US-China trade war, Brexit uncertainties, Interest Rate, GDP and Consumer spending, etc.

I will remain on the seller side for both medium and long term swing trading.

Cut-loss is always previous two weeks high and this keep any drawdown duration to just 2 weeks.

When the market loses its selling momentum, I will see that on my Daily chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Week33 Aug12 to16 10-08-2019 17-42-08.png Size: 59 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,668
  • Aug 10, 2019 6:31am Aug 10, 2019 6:31am
Look at the AUDNZD H1. Even though it is a pullback, it has no commitment from either buyers or sellers; just small bodied candles marching along to nowhere. But look at that last red candle! Oh, MAYBE the TMMS-Osc will turn red and I can get a breakout! Do you really want to try to get in on a breakout of this? Many traders like these conditions for breakout trades. Personally, I don't. I want commitment and confirmation of either up or down and only then enter a trade. There was a breakout buy signal on H1 for that little up move of three bars, but clearly in hindsight, it went essentially nowhere. The maximum was only about 15 pips, and it is more likely that you would have gotten stopped out with a loss. So, why take a chance on a valid signal on a breakout trade when you can wait for confirmation of direction?

Sure, it can work for net positive in the long run, if you have tight stops to keep your many accumulated losses relatively small, and then catch some big pips on strong trend runs. If that is your game, you can play it and win in the long run.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #2,669
  • Aug 10, 2019 6:47am Aug 10, 2019 6:47am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi whitesta Yes. With US-China trade war, Brexit uncertainties, Interest Rate, GDP and Consumer spending, etc. I will remain on the seller side for both medium and long term swing trading. Cut-loss is always previous two weeks high and this keep any drawdown duration to just 2 weeks. When the market loses its selling momentum, I will see that on my Daily chart. {image}
Hey Emmanuel - i hope you dont mind me asking you a silly question (aplogies if its been answered already). Your recent charts show screen shots of both the Trading Made Simple and Trading made Simple(r) methods. Are you using both? How do you balance between the two? I know both are quite similar - is there a benefit of one over the other?
  • #2,670
  • Aug 10, 2019 7:24am Aug 10, 2019 7:24am
Quoting DrDave
Look at the AUDNZD H1. Even though it is a pullback, it has no commitment from either buyers or sellers; just small bodied candles marching along to nowhere. But look at that last red candle! Oh, MAYBE the TMMS-Osc will turn red and I can get a breakout! Do you really want to try to get in on a breakout of this? Many traders like these conditions for breakout trades. Personally, I don't. I want commitment and confirmation of either up or down and only then enter a trade. There was a breakout buy signal on H1 for that little up move of three bars,...
Hi Dave, can u explain confirmation of direction. Several bars same colour? Higher timeframe outside EMA/HMA channel? RSI crossing 50? Sorry for being a numpty.
  • #2,671
  • Aug 10, 2019 7:35am Aug 10, 2019 7:35am
Quoting Viv108
{quote} Hey Emmanuel - i hope you dont mind me asking you a silly question (aplogies if its been answered already). Your recent charts show screen shots of both the Trading Made Simple and Trading made Simple(r) methods. Are you using both? How do you balance between the two? I know both are quite similar - is there a benefit of one over the other?
Hi Viv108

No problem. You can ask me anything and I will reply when I find time to. BTW, I read your PM, thanks and will reply.

TMSr evolved from TMS as what RobinHood exlained in his Post#1.

The big issue with TMS is its long story where it started in the thread Craig Harris Stochastics CHS. Most people did not study that CHS thread and they do not know what the OP eelfranz aka Big E shared in that thread from 2008 till 2010. TMS is about how Big E took components from other methods/systems and blended them to create his two methods 21/233 Method and the 5-Method. TMS is the 5-Method.

The other bigger issue with TMS is the many versions of the TDI which dates back to 2006 and many newer versions made by other traders and posted all over public forums. Big E style of trading used only the 2006 version which is unique to his aggressive trading style. I have not seen any traders in FF can trade the way Big E traded in 2011. Anyway there were not evidence that he was profitable but I know from my own experience that if he really traded the way he had described in all his post between 2008 till 2011, he would have made money. Big E was a rule-based discretionary type of trader and I know this are very good traders. However, Big E wrote many posts where he talked about various discretionary changes to the rules when he posted training charts and he did not provide a single update in his original Post#1. This created many different interpretation what TMS is and over the last 8 years lots of arguments among members. Members have hijacked that thread for commercial interest and is still happening today. Some people still lied about being profitable and posting only winning trades after the fact.

About TMSr by RobinHood, this is 100% mechanical rule based method using 7 technical indicators. Good thing here is RH got rid of the controversial TDI. I made that same decision at end 2017 and went back to use the Fozzy-RSI instead of the TDI. I know that trading a 100% mechanical method with proper risk management and use of Position Sizing can be profitable. RH has explained how he use R for every trade and that is very important that members here learn and understand this R method.

There are BASICS he taught here and members must learn these BASICS. Follow the BASICS and trade with DISCIPLINE. What is this DISCIPLINE often mention often and highly overused.

To your question whether I use both TMS and TMSr? Well I know TMS very well and the type of market type conditions where I can make money and I know when to avoid trading certain market type conditions. TMSr is the same and when I look at the price and the two Stochastics (8,3,3) and (14,3,3) and the RSI(14) I know when to take a trade with 60:40 win probability. I traded a similar system for 20 years and I still have the templates which I would consult on daily basis.
It is really not that difficult to find ggod trades on H4, Daily and Weekly. Just avoid H1 and below. Use M15 or M15 for more entries like the way RH showed before.
It is Risk and Money Management that will be create the edge which we look for. The trading methodology here is the same for all.

long story short,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,672
  • Edited 8:04am Aug 10, 2019 7:54am | Edited 8:04am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Hi Dave, can u explain confirmation of direction. Several bars same colour? Higher timeframe outside EMA/HMA channel? RSI crossing 50? Sorry for being a numpty.
I look at lower timeframe charts to provide the confirmation signals to higher timeframe charts. This is the main part of a system that would take considerable time for most to learn and understand, not because it is difficult, but because a different perspective is required about market structure and dynamics than what is in the mainstream. And we humans tend to have trouble letting go of existing biases, making understanding and accepting new material a challenge.

Perhaps you recall some postings that I have made that included remarks similar to, "The up move takes time to cycle up through the smaller charts", and "If that happens, you must move to the next higher chart". I suspect that you have never encountered a concept that uses movement from lower charts to higher charts for making decisions, whereas there is a multitude of instructional information promoting looking for signals on a higher timeframe and then checking a lower timeframe before entry to ensure it is traveling in the same direction.

By the way, if you SUSPECT that something relatively simple, such as several bars the same color, might be useful for direction confirmation, why not look at several pairs on several timeframes and see if you find a worthwhile correlation? It is not hard to do, and it exposes you to market structure and patterns, at least on a subconscious level, as a bonus.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #2,673
  • Aug 10, 2019 8:55am Aug 10, 2019 8:55am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Viv108 No problem. You can ask me anything and I will reply when I find time to. BTW, I read your PM, thanks and will reply. TMSr evolved from TMS as what RobinHood exlained in his Post#1. The big issue with TMS is its long story where it started in the thread Craig Harris Stochastics CHS. Most people did not study that CHS thread and they do not know what the OP eelfranz aka Big E shared in that thread from 2008 till 2010. TMS is about how Big E took components from other methods/systems and blended them to create his two methods 21/233...
Hi mate. Thanks for the detailed reply. I've just read the whole thread and I can see this is far better system, than the original TDI - thanks to you and RobinHood also. Are the indicators required for this system here available on MT5?
  • #2,674
  • Aug 10, 2019 9:36am Aug 10, 2019 9:36am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I look at lower timeframe charts to provide the confirmation signals to higher timeframe charts. This is the main part of a system that would take considerable time for most to learn and understand, not because it is difficult, but because a different perspective is required about market structure and dynamics than what is in the mainstream. And we humans tend to have trouble letting go of existing biases, making understanding and accepting new material a challenge. Perhaps you recall some postings that I have made that included remarks...
Cheers For that Dave, making more sense now. I have been using several pairs to confirm the trend direction and now I need to work on this lower timeframe concept. It’s obvious the higher charts are made from the lower TF and I am stuck in this idea that if the weekly/daily is heading up then I need to be buying on the H4 which doesn’t always work out and I catch the reversal usually just after I put a buy on. I will have a google tonight and see what I can come up with as well as going over your previous posts.
  • #2,675
  • Aug 10, 2019 10:19am Aug 10, 2019 10:19am
The purpose in trading is not to pick exact highs and lows. The purpose is to make money. Always have a plan. The opportunities are many in the markets, and you will miss many. But do not worry or fret about missing an opportunity, as another will be along shortly. Trade from a plan and do not react to the markets. Knowledge, discipline, courage and hard work are the requirements of skillful trading.

W. D. Gann
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #2,676
  • Edited 3:34pm Aug 10, 2019 10:47am | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting DrDave
The purpose in trading is not to pick exact highs and lows. The purpose is to make money. Always have a plan. The opportunities are many in the markets, and you will miss many. But do not worry or fret about missing an opportunity, as another will be along shortly. Trade from a plan and do not react to the markets. Knowledge, discipline, courage and hard work are the requirements of skillful trading. W. D. Gann
Hi everyone, I participate little for my not very perfect English.
This group has been following since July, I read almost every page and I'm happy to be here.
I continue to study and trade alone, I find it hard to understand but I don't want to give up.
Why don't you delve into the concept of the trading plan?
I agree perfectly with what you wrote, I read a book on Gann.
Hello
Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero. "Orazio"
  • #2,677
  • Aug 10, 2019 12:41pm Aug 10, 2019 12:41pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Mark When I saw your EURGBP post and notice that the Daily candle has not close, I would normally wait till that daily candle closes then check if there are conditions for a trade setup. If not Daily setup, then the next task would be to check H4 and then every 4 hours to look for trade opportunities. When I look at my charts I also pay attention to the price action of the price bars and the APB and HA candles. In this EURGBP example when I don't see the Daily bars/candles did not make higher high, I will look for H4 CONTINUATION trade...
hello emmanuel7788,
For EURGBP H4 chart--Is it a continued or crossover setup? thanks.
  • #2,678
  • Aug 10, 2019 2:04pm Aug 10, 2019 2:04pm
Quoting salimc
{quote} hello emmanuel7788, For EURGBP H4 chart--Is it a continued or crossover setup? thanks.
The continuation trade was 2 candles ago. Have to wait for the next one now
  • #2,679
  • Aug 10, 2019 2:50pm Aug 10, 2019 2:50pm
Quoting salimc
{quote} hello emmanuel7788, For EURGBP H4 chart--Is it a continued or crossover setup? thanks.

hello salimc

Can be a 'iffy' case. I had earlier looked at Daily and formed a bullish bias ... RECENCY BIAS.

But when I look at H4 alone - both the Stochs (8,3,3) and (14,3,3,) went below 50-level and turned back up and the RSI remained above 50-level,
so I classify that as CONTINUATION. I considered the Variation(s) mentioned by RH in Post#1.

Variation(s):

If all indicators imply long, and the Stochastics 8,3,3 (the thin SlateGray Line) retreats below the Purple 50 Line, then it crosses back above the Purple 50 Line and all indicators still imply long, you can enter long.

If all indicators imply short, and the Stochastics 8,3,3 (the thin SlateGray Line) retreats above the Purple 50 Line, then it crosses back below the Purple 50 Line and all indicators still imply short, you can enter short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP Week 32 H4 POMO 10-08-2019 19-05-23.png Size: 55 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,680
  • Edited 5:04pm Aug 10, 2019 4:53pm | Edited 5:04pm
Yes, I see a continuation to 0.9318 (a few pips more or less). And after that, a retracement to the 0.9220, then it will continue Up.. Let's see.....

By the way Emmanuel, do you have a method or template where you save the probables trades for the new week, I mean a Pdf or Excel where we can annotate or input the next trades? to keep it handy...
"Great Men are not born great, They Grow Great."
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