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Intraday Trading the US Index Futures

  • #61
  • Aug 7, 2019 7:06am Aug 7, 2019 7:06am
Quoting jmflukeiii
This will probably be it for me today as I need to leave at 7:30. Dropped down to the 3M charts to try to get a smaller stop size. Both markets, the same trade - the 1a2. Second attempt to go up (or down) after the open. Both came after an exhaustive bear bar with an inside bull bar. {image} {image}
Got the +100 on that second part for YM, +40/+100. And that's definitely good enough for today -
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #62
  • Aug 7, 2019 10:15am Aug 7, 2019 10:15am
Quoting lolpie
Another observation is that most of my sell orders are winners, whereas about 25% of my buys are. I'm not sure why, but sells seem to occur faster. Perhaps its something with market participant psychology, or "gravity"?.....
As the saying goes, "The Market takes the stairs UP and the elevator DOWN."

I think the reason lies in both the psychology of market participants and the inherent structure of the Market.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #63
  • Aug 8, 2019 7:08am Aug 8, 2019 7:08am
Looking like we might have a spike and channel type trend up after the breakout pullback huge signal bar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_08 (7_07_59 AM).png Size: 96 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #64
  • Aug 8, 2019 7:14am Aug 8, 2019 7:14am
Quoting jmflukeiii
Looking like we might have a spike and channel type trend up after the breakout pullback huge signal bar. {image}
Took the same trade on YM, but got +20 / +1 as it didn't develop enough room.

Half out on the ES with second pieced at BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MYM 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_08 (7_10_00 AM).png Size: 90 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #65
  • Aug 8, 2019 7:32am Aug 8, 2019 7:32am
Quoting jmflukeiii
Looking like we might have a spike and channel type trend up after the breakout pullback huge signal bar. {image}
Modified target back to my typical initial swing target of 8.00 points (plus got a tick positive slippage). Really taking the stairs slowly today...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_08 (7_31_44 AM).png Size: 88 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #66
  • Edited 7:55am Aug 8, 2019 7:44am | Edited 7:55am
So the spike and channel call is looking correct so large pullbacks are unlikely. Failed low 2 long entries (i.e. market tries to sell off twice, but just goes sideways) would likely be the most reasonable - and no shorting. I don't like trading these days too much and should have just held the initial long (which itself was a failed low 2). So this might be it for the day, which is fine.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #67
  • Aug 8, 2019 9:15am Aug 8, 2019 9:15am
Quoting jmflukeiii
So the spike and channel call is looking correct so large pullbacks are unlikely. Failed low 2 long entries (i.e. market tries to sell off twice, but just goes sideways) would likely be the most reasonable - and no shorting. I don't like trading these days too much and should have just held the initial long (which itself was a failed low 2). So this might be it for the day, which is fine.
Good call!
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  • #68
  • Aug 8, 2019 10:04am Aug 8, 2019 10:04am
Quoting lolpie
{quote} Good call! {image}
My guess is the only short that will work for anything, and it will only be a scalp at best, would be after lunch at some point and/or at the start of the final hour. But that short will provide the first pullback of the day which will likely be bought aggressively. Unfortunately, I'll have to leave again so won't be around for such a pullback, if it happens.

These kind of days you just have to buy early and then leave so you don't take profit too early (like I did). Alternatively, you can buy on a limit order 1 tick below bear bars with a 2 pt stop.

But who knows, maybe it all reverses and tanks, but the above would be my guess for those who trade after the morning session.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #69
  • Aug 8, 2019 10:10am Aug 8, 2019 10:10am
Well done fellas.

To be honest, I decided to spend a couple of days in SIM to work out some "kinks".

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #70
  • Aug 8, 2019 10:21am Aug 8, 2019 10:21am
Quoting HiddenGap
Well done fellas. To be honest, I decided to spend a couple of days in SIM to work out some "kinks". {image}
Looks like you did well! It looks like you took the same trade as I did, although better entry from what looks like a 3M chart.
How did you manage that trade?
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #71
  • Aug 8, 2019 2:37pm Aug 8, 2019 2:37pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} My guess is the only short that will work for anything, and it will only be a scalp at best, would be after lunch at some point and/or at the start of the final hour. But that short will provide the first pullback of the day which will likely be bought aggressively. Unfortunately, I'll have to leave again so won't be around for such a pullback, if it happens. These kind of days you just have to buy early and then leave so you don't take profit too early (like I did). Alternatively, you can buy on a limit order 1 tick below bear bars with...
..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_08 (2_36_12 PM).png Size: 73 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #72
  • Aug 9, 2019 6:42am Aug 9, 2019 6:42am
Waiting for something to show up here. ES broke yesterday trendline by the lower gap open this morning. Could mean a two leg up move for a LH short, or any other number of things. We are in the middle of yesterday afternoon's range, so potentially finding agreement here. Entries would be small bars at the edges of the range for me, preferably second entries.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_09 (6_42_32 AM).png Size: 74 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #73
  • Aug 9, 2019 7:02am Aug 9, 2019 7:02am
Quoting jmflukeiii
Waiting for something to show up here. ES broke yesterday trendline by the lower gap open this morning. Could mean a two leg up move for a LH short, or any other number of things. We are in the middle of yesterday afternoon's range, so potentially finding agreement here. Entries would be small bars at the edges of the range for me, preferably second entries. {image}
Still sitting on my hands, seeing if a long setup takes form here at the lower end of that range. Or potentially a breakout pullback, although that seems less likely.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #74
  • Edited 7:22am Aug 9, 2019 7:10am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Still sitting on my hands, seeing if a long setup takes form here at the lower end of that range. Or potentially a breakout pullback, although that seems less likely.
Big surprise bear bar. I don't really know what I'm looking at here, so waiting.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #75
  • Aug 9, 2019 7:41am Aug 9, 2019 7:41am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Big surprise bear bar. I don't really know what I'm looking at here, so waiting.
Sort of a hard trend, but not getting any pullbacks that would let me short other than at the low of the day, which I'm not a fan of doing. So still waiting...
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #76
  • Aug 9, 2019 8:37am Aug 9, 2019 8:37am
Well, came back from the early loss, had my target set a bit too far out, although it might get there. Judgement was a bit clouded during management of this as I wanted to get back the loss, not manage the trade correctly. Nonetheless, decent trade and a positive day. And a very positive week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_09 (8_36_18 AM).png Size: 88 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #77
  • Aug 9, 2019 8:49am Aug 9, 2019 8:49am
Nice work. Good end to the week for me too. That big bear bar was because of a Trump tweet about China I believe. I actually tried to trade it (trade 3), should have held on lol

Trades 1 and 4 were according to the system. Trade 2 was a trendline break and me anticipating a small bull run, but I closed it out pretty fast due to lack of followup.
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  • #78
  • Aug 9, 2019 8:53am Aug 9, 2019 8:53am
Quoting lolpie
Nice work. Good end to the week for me too. That big bear bar was because of a Trump tweet about China I believe. I actually tried to trade it (trade 3), should have held on lol Trades 1 and 4 were according to the system. Trade 2 was a trendline break and me anticipating a small bull run, but I closed it out pretty fast due to lack of followup. {image}
Good stuff! I kept drawing trendlines today thinking of where you'd be entering. Better day than me -

Looking back, I let my own expectation guide a decision not to take your short #1 which is a reasonable setup bar, instead of just following what the market was saying. Constantly learning...
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #79
  • Aug 9, 2019 8:56am Aug 9, 2019 8:56am
What are the best combination of moving averages for intraday trading..I watched a video recently that says something about Fibonacci related moving average but didn’t really understand it. Any help?
  • #80
  • Aug 9, 2019 9:19am Aug 9, 2019 9:19am
Quoting mnsah
What are the best combination of moving averages for intraday trading..I watched a video recently that says something about Fibonacci related moving average but didn’t really understand it. Any help?
Perhaps others that haven't been participating so far will chime in, but for the three of us that have been participating, only I have any moving averages on the chart (and mine is very faint so obviously not a focal point for me).

Nonetheless, the 20 EMA is something I have seen a number of folks use (Brooks, Don Miller, etc.), and is the one I use, but not for much. I also have the 20 EMA from the 60M chart on the 5M chart (240 EMA), but again don't use it for much (although I would note that today's down move has stalled at the 60M EMA).

A simple system would be to trade 2 leg pullbacks to the EMA, partially because those trades work and partially to force yourself to learn discipline. Force yourself to take only one type of trade and be satisfied whether you get no trades or get 100 trades. The point is to be disciplined. If you only take 2 leg pullbacks to the ema with reward 2x your risk, you will be a profitable trader.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
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