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Intraday Trading the US Index Futures

  • #41
  • Aug 2, 2019 12:06pm Aug 2, 2019 12:06pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
Perfect two leg correction on ES at the 100% projection of the first leg. We'll see if this sets up an entry bar or not. Maybe it keeps going. There was a two-leg correction down after the first leg up which could have been the start of the MTR. I have to leave pretty soon so maybe no entry, but we'll see what happens here. Not super into fibs, but this is also the 61.8% retracement from the RTH leg down today and the 38.2 from the last swing high at the end of yesterday RTH.
BAM! MIght keep going of course, probably 100 more points. But I have to leave and took 2x risk on the trade. Great day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_02 (10_13_40 AM).png Size: 60 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #42
  • Aug 5, 2019 7:41am Aug 5, 2019 7:41am
Good morning,

I was wondering if anyone here daytrades in the evening hours? If so, what instruments do you find the best for it?

Right now I'm trading micro ES during the day, but I have a full-time job which makes it pretty difficult
  • #43
  • Aug 5, 2019 9:10am Aug 5, 2019 9:10am
Quoting lolpie
Good morning, I was wondering if anyone here daytrades in the evening hours? If so, what instruments do you find the best for it? Right now I'm trading micro ES during the day, but I have a full-time job which makes it pretty difficult
I'm looking forward to reading some knowledgeable replies.

I don't know the answer to the bigger question, but it seems to me there are some smaller questions you have to answer first:

* What hours are you looking to trade?

While I would say, you can't force the Market to come to you (do things on your time frame), your available hours are your available hours.

* What types of instruments are you willing to trade?

Are you looking to trade only Indicies, or would you also trade currencies? If you trade currencies, would you trade a full size or a micro? Volume for the Micro currencies is not that great.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #44
  • Aug 5, 2019 9:22am Aug 5, 2019 9:22am
I too have a career but fortunately am on the west coast of the US allowing me to trade the US open from 6:30 - 9:00 my time before moving on with my day. I'm not sure there's enough movement to trade the indices 'after hours' all that well, but I'm sure people do it.

I would potentially suggest daily chart trading of the indices, which is now much more palatable from a risk perspective given the micro contracts, without concern regarding pattern day trade rules in the SPY or QQQ. Options could also work, although I think taking a position in the MES/MNQ/MYM would be simpler.

If you want to trade shorter time frames, perhaps some AUD or JPY crosses where there might be active trading going on after US hours?
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #45
  • Aug 5, 2019 9:24am Aug 5, 2019 9:24am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} I'm looking forward to reading some knowledgeable replies. I don't know the answer to the bigger question, but it seems to me there are some smaller questions you have to answer first: * What hours are you looking to trade? While I would say, you can't force the Market to come to you (do things on your time frame), your available hours are your available hours. * What types of instruments are you willing to trade? Are you looking to trade only Indicies, or would you also trade currencies? If you trade currencies, would you trade a full size...
Thanks for the reply. A quick search told me the mini-Nikkei 225 might be a good fit, so I'll give that a go

* What hours are you looking to trade?
6pm-11pm EST

* What types of instruments are you willing to trade?
This is a bit harder to answer. I am thinking micro/mini indices for now, but solely because they seem a bit easier and the fundamental analysis is more straightforward IMO. With that said, I'm not married to the notion, but whatever instrument(s) I choose would have to be micros for now.
  • #46
  • Aug 5, 2019 9:30am Aug 5, 2019 9:30am
Also, this morning's trades -

Trade 1 was a win, trade 2 is looking like a small loss if it closes above that trendline
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  • #47
  • Aug 5, 2019 9:48am Aug 5, 2019 9:48am
Quoting lolpie
Also, this morning's trades - Trade 1 was a win, trade 2 is looking like a small loss if it closes above that trendline {image}
Very nice, I've been waiting for a decent pullback (all the pullbacks on the 5M so far would require selling at a new low which I don't like doing). I don't do well in these tight channel trends so have found it best to just wait for larger pullbacks and/or exhaustion.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #48
  • Aug 5, 2019 10:08am Aug 5, 2019 10:08am
Half out on the wedge bottom at the 100% projection of leg one. BE on rest, targeting the start of the wedge for second exit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_05 (8_09_08 AM).png Size: 76 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #49
  • Aug 5, 2019 10:14am Aug 5, 2019 10:14am
Quoting jmflukeiii
Half out on the wedge bottom at the 100% projection of leg one. BE on rest, targeting the start of the wedge for second exit. {image}
Locking in 10 points.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #50
  • Aug 5, 2019 10:16am Aug 5, 2019 10:16am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Locking in 10 points.
Out for 10 on the second part. Very strong first leg out of the hole, not sure if we end up getting a second leg back to the opening range, but that trade alone is enough for me today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_05 (8_15_21 AM).png Size: 70 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #51
  • Aug 5, 2019 10:36am Aug 5, 2019 10:36am
Quoting lolpie
{quote} Thanks for the reply. A quick search told me the mini-Nikkei 225 might be a good fit, so I'll give that a go * What hours are you looking to trade? 6pm-11pm EST * What types of instruments are you willing to trade? This is a bit harder to answer. I am thinking micro/mini indices for now, but solely because they seem a bit easier and the fundamental analysis is more straightforward IMO. With that said, I'm not married to the notion, but whatever instrument(s) I choose would have to be micros for now.
I was going to mention the Nikkei. I don't know if there is a Micro Mini-Nikkei (yet).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #52
  • Aug 5, 2019 11:04am Aug 5, 2019 11:04am
Lower probability 2 leg pullback after trendline break potential long (major trend reversal). Lots of momentum down though, so this is lower probability I'd say than usual.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Minute) 2019_08_05 (9_04_16 AM).png Size: 78 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #53
  • Aug 5, 2019 1:32pm Aug 5, 2019 1:32pm
We're not limit down?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #54
  • Aug 5, 2019 2:09pm Aug 5, 2019 2:09pm
Quoting HiddenGap
We're not limit down?
I had to take off for a couple hours, but back at the desk now. Wow...
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #55
  • Aug 5, 2019 2:33pm Aug 5, 2019 2:33pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} I had to take off for a couple hours, but back at the desk now. Wow...
Journal Entry:

This was the worst day to have an appointment and not be trading. My plan was to SIM trade until I needed to leave. That way I wouldn't find myself in a position and faced with what to do. Well, I took a SIM trade and exited so I could leave............but ended up staying to watch the carnage.

As mentioned above, I exited early in order to leave the house. So the WRB pts are how the trade would or should have been managed. Even in SIM it was really hard to take the trade after the large Confirmation Candle (CC). I proud of myself for doing it. It just goes to show, the more a trader can get out of his own way, the better.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #56
  • Aug 6, 2019 9:53am Aug 6, 2019 9:53am
Two trades for today and calling it as I need to move on with other things.

YM - triangle setup after open, and typically the first break fails so faded the first break. Unfortunately, it pulled back before dropping and took me out, but a good trade and managed correctly.

ES - beautiful 2-leg pullback, wedge pullback, trend channel line overshoot, at the ema, with a large outside bar signal. managed alright, pulled the first target in a little bit as it seemed to find a lot of resistance at the halfway retracement, and then almost got full target at the descending trendline, but the autotrail kicked in and took me out in the middle of that wick.
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Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #57
  • Aug 6, 2019 10:26am Aug 6, 2019 10:26am
Phew, its been a busy morning. Trades are on the chart - business as usual.

I'm primarily using manual trailing stops and trendline breaks to exit. One thing I still struggle with is knowing whether a break constitutes a new trend and if I should re-enter in the opposite direction...

My solution is to shut off the platform and be happy with a green day
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  • #58
  • Aug 6, 2019 2:45pm Aug 6, 2019 2:45pm
Quoting lolpie
Phew, its been a busy morning. Trades are on the chart - business as usual. I'm primarily using manual trailing stops and trendline breaks to exit. One thing I still struggle with is knowing whether a break constitutes a new trend and if I should re-enter in the opposite direction... My solution is to shut off the platform and be happy with a green day {image}
I really like the simplicity of your method. I think I've tried similar but had trouble defining how to consistently draw such steep trendlines, although I guess it could simply be done as: draw the steepest trendline available from the most immediate bars.

At one point, I would wait for the breaks and then trade the first pullback on a stop above the highs of the bars pulling back. That worked other than days of chop where it would get slaughtered as new trends never really developed.

I guess my point is: I don't know. Perhaps you could draw bigger picture trendlines, such as the descending trendline I drew on the top two highs of my ES chart. Until that breaks, the trend is down, so you could trade longs, but would expect that trendline breaks short would result in larger potential profit?
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #59
  • Aug 7, 2019 8:01am Aug 7, 2019 8:01am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} I really like the simplicity of your method. I think I've tried similar but had trouble defining how to consistently draw such steep trendlines, although I guess it could simply be done as: draw the steepest trendline available from the most immediate bars. At one point, I would wait for the breaks and then trade the first pullback on a stop above the highs of the bars pulling back. That worked other than days of chop where it would get slaughtered as new trends never really developed. I guess my point is: I don't know. Perhaps you could...
I've tried drawing longer timeframe lines before, but its made my trading worse (not to say it won't work for someone else). I think it adds another layer of analysis and I prefer to just focus on the last 10-20 bars in the here and now.

One thing I've noticed is that a TL break + close only starts a new trend roughly half of the time. To me, those are not good odds when my R:R happens to be about 1:1. Another observation is that most of my sell orders are winners, whereas about 25% of my buys are. I'm not sure why, but sells seem to occur faster. Perhaps its something with market participant psychology, or "gravity"? Granted, the trade war stuff over the past few weeks has made shorting a breeze, so we'll see what happens in the upcoming weeks.

I finally got around to trading the mini Nikkei 225 last night -

Trade 1 was a winner. Trade 2 was a loss - I bought on the TL break + close because the market had been trending so strongly earlier in the day but I closed it because I had to go to sleep. According to system rules I should have closed it when price closed below the TL, which it never did. It would have been a massive winner if I had stayed up late babying the trade, but oh well, live and learn. For the future - don't trade before bed time no matter how good the trade looks.
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  • #60
  • Aug 7, 2019 9:01am Aug 7, 2019 9:01am
This will probably be it for me today as I need to leave at 7:30. Dropped down to the 3M charts to try to get a smaller stop size; these 5M bar sizes are so huge.

Both markets, the same trade - the 1a2. Second attempt to go up (or down) after the open. Both came after an exhaustive bear bar with an inside bull bar.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MYM 09-19 (3 Minute) 2019_08_07 (6_58_28 AM).png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (3 Minute) 2019_08_07 (6_57_14 AM).png Size: 79 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
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