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  • #1,158,721
  • Aug 1, 2019 2:58am Aug 1, 2019 2:58am
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} Nah, banks were short. Funds and other large specs were long though, but I bet you they all hedged properly and still made money.
We had a discussion about those guys buying 1.12 as you deduced from futures. Referring to the discussion you had with Asgorp. It then means that they are also wrong sometimes. Reason why I kept to my analyses and kept selling.
  • #1,158,722
  • Aug 1, 2019 2:59am Aug 1, 2019 2:59am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} so how many of you caught this move ? {image}
Booked my last short at 1.1050 this morning. I caught it from the very top.
  • #1,158,723
  • Aug 1, 2019 3:06am Aug 1, 2019 3:06am
end of august eur/usd 1.0800
end of 2019 eur/usd 0.9000
  • #1,158,724
  • Aug 1, 2019 4:14am Aug 1, 2019 4:14am
ING note after FOMC.

ING Research discusses its reaction to FOMC policy statement.
"As widely expected, the Federal Reserve has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to 2.00-2.25% and left the door open to more easing. It has also decided to conclude its balance sheet run down in August - two months earlier than previously announced. Today’s decision to cut interest rates, for the first time since December 2008, was not unanimous though with Esther George and Eric Rosengren preferring to see policy left unchanged," ING notes.
"We characterise today’s move as a precautionary, pre-emptive policy change to ensure that the US economic expansion – already the longest since the National Bureau for Economic Research’s database began in 1854 – continues for a good while longer. However, the Fed never cuts rates just once and we doubt it will this cycle," ING adds.
  • #1,158,725
  • Aug 1, 2019 4:16am Aug 1, 2019 4:16am
1000 option barrier 12 bln USD will act as a magnet going into NFP, sell rips.
forget about break above 1100 it ain't going to happen.

 

  1. EUR/USD closed 0.76% lower after Fed "hawkish cut" disappointed bulls
  2. Pair broke support at 1.1100 and after brief recover, it weakened into close
  3. There isn't any technical support ahead of 1.1000 option barriers
  4. Resistance at 1.1100/05 which was former support and hourly pullback
  5. Break back above 1.1110 needed to relieve downward pressure
  6. Focus shifts to Friday US jobs & solid number will increase EUR/USD pressure

  • #1,158,726
  • Aug 1, 2019 4:19am Aug 1, 2019 4:19am
the most important part in ING note
Quote
However, the Fed never cuts rates just once and we doubt it will this cycle," ING adds.
Once this sinks in with the market, expect a major trend reversal, but won't happen overnight.
  • #1,158,727
  • Aug 1, 2019 4:38am Aug 1, 2019 4:38am
Quoting asgcorp
1000 option barrier 12 bln USD will act as a magnet going into NFP, sell rips. forget about break above 1100 it ain't going to happen. EUR/USD closed 0.76% lower after Fed "hawkish cut" disappointed bulls Pair broke support at 1.1100 and after brief recover, it weakened into close There isn't any technical support ahead of 1.1000 option barriers Resistance at 1.1100/05 which was former support and hourly pullback Break back above 1.1110 needed to relieve downward pressure Focus shifts to Friday US jobs & solid number will increase EUR/USD pressure...
you are seeing unemplyment rate or other option for friday ?
Attached Image
  • #1,158,728
  • Aug 1, 2019 6:54am Aug 1, 2019 6:54am
going to 1.0980 EUR same week
  • #1,158,729
  • Aug 1, 2019 7:02am Aug 1, 2019 7:02am
Quoting rameeztr
going to 1.0980 EUR same week
jajaja was ist lost was ist das

Inserted Video
  • #1,158,730
  • Aug 1, 2019 7:23am Aug 1, 2019 7:23am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} We had a discussion about those guys buying 1.12 as you deduced from futures. Referring to the discussion you had with Asgorp. It then means that they are also wrong sometimes. Reason why I kept to my analyses and kept selling.
No, I said large specs were long. If large specs are long, who are they buying from? They're buying from the banks.

So how are the banks positioned if they're selling to the large specs? They're short.

Only if they manage to get their short positions off their books (presuming they actually want to) by selling their shorts to willing buyers, they'll be net long.

I don't know if they were net long or short in the end as I don't care about how the banks trade because their objectives are different from mine, but I do know they had massive short positions for price to have been stuck in that range for such a long time despite increased implied volatility.

We're all wrong sometimes (a lot of times), but like I've mentioned, I bet like me, most of those long positions made money anyway because they hedged their portfolio correctly. The most important lesson to take away is not the fact that the EU took a dump and so did the Fed, but the fact there was an opportunity in increased volatility. It doesn't matter what your theory was, you should have been able to make money if you were right (and went short), or wrong.

Some people lose money even when they're right Just highlights being right isn't as important as learning how to build a portfolio correctly...
  • #1,158,731
  • Aug 1, 2019 7:26am Aug 1, 2019 7:26am
Looks like there are no Buyers left but me on this thread
  • #1,158,732
  • Aug 1, 2019 9:12am Aug 1, 2019 9:12am
Quoting Seakistmotel
Looks like there are no Buyers left but me on this thread
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  • #1,158,733
  • Aug 1, 2019 9:24am Aug 1, 2019 9:24am
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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #1,158,734
  • Aug 1, 2019 10:52am Aug 1, 2019 10:52am
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yes yes yes
  • #1,158,735
  • Edited 12:49pm Aug 1, 2019 12:31pm | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting Amir_Forex
{image}


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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #1,158,736
  • Aug 1, 2019 5:30pm Aug 1, 2019 5:30pm
Quoting Seakistmotel
Looks like there are no Buyers left but me on this thread
Are we ready to jump on a sell train?
  • #1,158,737
  • Aug 1, 2019 7:55pm Aug 1, 2019 7:55pm
i don't see any sustained bullish rally in this pair for August

the ECB is going to cut further and introduce easing, which will be bad for EUR but good for USD since the interest rates favor the dollar over euro
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,158,738
  • Aug 1, 2019 9:51pm Aug 1, 2019 9:51pm
Quoting MrPresident
i don't see any sustained bullish rally in this pair for August the ECB is going to cut further and introduce easing, which will be bad for EUR but good for USD since the interest rates favor the dollar over euro
with good us data coming out the timing of the r ate cut seems to be trump driven nt data driven ; yes over all global economies have slowed down, the eee seee beee cuttng rates is due to weaker constituent states in EU
  • #1,158,739
  • Aug 2, 2019 12:00am Aug 2, 2019 12:00am
Quoting Seakistmotel
{quote} Are we ready to jump on a sell train?
No. I am not buying this fake break.
But if i could ,i would be buying eu now
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yes yes yes
  • #1,158,740
  • Aug 2, 2019 12:37am Aug 2, 2019 12:37am
Waiting range for the NFP. (1.1075 - 1.1095)
Here are my S/R levels.
If 1.1070 support is broken, could mean NFP data is anticipated strong... or accumulation...
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