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  • #1,158,101
  • Edited Jul 17, 2019 12:01pm Jul 16, 2019 3:36pm | Edited Jul 17, 2019 12:01pm
Quoting asgcorp
I didn't run away, the bald man blocked me.
Quoting seenkat
As he should.


Guys remember, that disagreeing makes the market If we would all agree market would just go 90 degrees aka collapse, STRONGEST (blinding) FLASH-crash style Just to make some TRADE talk before I post some FUN but useful things... (in my book at least)... I love the people on the other side (no pun so that they will HOLD the bears through the summer.. so that they do not overat too much too soon... like BEAR stephan, yes russian "something" (t=3m33s
So yeah, STABILISE the FALL please so that I can shave the profits slowly but surely through the summer, because those spikes, bounces really f-ups my high-lev trading (harvest) strategies that I plan to employ more

Also, I love this thread when EVERYONE can say whatever they want... but we have the choice to accept/reject...
Unless of course some serious violations.. then the CENTRAL/global command would follow (I guess), but I like that it is one of the most free thread in the FF, at least from what I have observed...

So I welcome both of you @asgcorp and @seenkat to let ALL out.. not just the market overview, signals, insights.. but also the emotions, thoughts.. ALL, unfiltered.. it is very entertaining on top of being informative maybe
Btw @seenkat, if someone ignores you personally, you can not post in their thread, the forum (software) prevents it?

If anyone is hurt by anyone here.. or elsewhere... I am afraid they don't have it aka in the wrong racket.
Because market is the biggest TheRapist there is... Insults are like a refreshment from abuse of the market.. if you REALLY TRADE

I love this (t=30s+) or this (t=5m52s) *analogy to FX

Also, do you know why they ask you if they can *** your girlfriend (for example) at the WS job interview, for certain (REAL trading/nutcase) positions?
https://www.cnbc.com/id/48246113
They want to see if you are there for the right and one reason onyl.. TO MAKE MONEY above ANYTHING... SINGLE purpose.. thats it...
Ironaly, the most honest job there is... Everything is very clear.. unlike working for peanuts for some fake/made_up purpose... but if profitable.. you get nothing...
In WS it is clear.. you make money, you earn big.. you don't.. you either support sucker or OUT... left on the side of the road (margin call - 2011, movie reference
VERY CLEAR, I approve.

PS.. took quite an effort to prepare this post, carefully selected useful - I believe (timed) clips, pls watch

Also this is what I love about WS/traders and/or good businessmen/leaders... the good ones at least.. they have to handle their problems, fixations, ego etc... otherwise it COSTS them a lot... Have seen many lost opportunities in real life, in business and elsewhere.. when ego/fixation/OCD won.. instead of.. yea.. profit for all At WS it is very clear, the real one at least.. what they are all there... This is easily lost at some deal.. when people compete who is smarter... Who is smartest is irrelevant there... just who get the most BUCK for himself and others... and we are a good friends while this condition=1... when not... OUT But there is no bullshit about it at anytime... Loveit.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #1,158,102
  • Jul 16, 2019 4:58pm Jul 16, 2019 4:58pm
Quoting asgcorp
I don't trade based on fundies, I do track them, but you are using 100% fed cut rate odds the wrong way. EURUSD is pricing in risks of no cut / lower than 50bps cut right now, so we may get a re-test of the range lows near 1.1120-30 and even a break down of the base lows is possible, then we might hit 1.1040-60 before FED. That's what I'm saying. hope this helps. good luck.
Wrong. EURUSD has already priced in the ECB cutting rates in July, in June whilst pricing in a no cut from the Fed. We got the lows of 1.200 from that. I'm not saying that it won't go lower, but I'm saying long is the only way to go.
Long isn't the way to go if you think the upside is capped at 1.250, but it's not. The markets haven't priced in anywhere near a 50 basis points cut, whilst already pricing in an ECB cut, which may not happen. The upside then is huge (I have my targets near 1.400).
Not only that, interbank large specs are picking up their longs, so it's perhaps a good idea to jump on their backs and go for the ride.
  • #1,158,103
  • Jul 16, 2019 5:08pm Jul 16, 2019 5:08pm
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} Wrong. EURUSD has already priced in the ECB cutting rates in July, in June whilst pricing in a no cut from the Fed. We got the lows of 1.200 from that. I'm not saying that it won't go lower, but I'm saying long is the only way to go. Long isn't the way to go if you think the upside is capped at 1.250, but it's not. The markets haven't priced in anywhere near a 50 basis points cut, whilst already pricing in an ECB cut, which may not happen. The upside then is huge (I have my targets near 1.400). Not only that, interbank large specs are picking...
I agree with what you said, but when you say interbank are picking up longs, no one knows that. We can speculate that, but no one knows. So I would not rely on interbank taking their shorts or longs, as we do not know. Trade safe.
  • #1,158,104
  • Jul 16, 2019 5:11pm Jul 16, 2019 5:11pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} there ain't much I can learn from a bald demo trader from Turkey. No harm done.
You do not need any of Ata useless strategy. He is a snake and a rat. He is a demo trader from Turkey you are right. He opened up his thread and he thinks he is like the big bank trader. Take a look at his analysis, throughout the day, he changes his mind like 100 times, this will go up or no this will go down, bla bla bla, than he would go from weekly analysis all the way down to 5 min analysis which that is not the way to trade on 5min chart. It's a good thing that he blocked you as he is a snake and there is nothing to learn from him. Trade safe.
  • #1,158,105
  • Jul 16, 2019 5:31pm Jul 16, 2019 5:31pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I agree with what you said, but when you say interbank are picking up longs, no one knows that. We can speculate that, but no one knows. So I would not rely on interbank taking their shorts or longs, as we do not know. Trade safe.
FX futures mirrors spot FX more often than not, and because futures contracts are exchange traded, they are reportable so I say this based on actual tangible figures, not based on retail client order book sentiment. Yes, technically it's still speculation as they may have cashed out already (unlikely as rates are not till last week of month), but it's a pretty well founded one, especially when they have been shorting the past 4 months, and then suddenly put on longs at the lows to coincide with rate announcements. That's a pretty damn good edge to me, and technicals show me 1.200 is a pretty good price to get in the party at despite the pain right now.
  • #1,158,106
  • Jul 16, 2019 6:18pm Jul 16, 2019 6:18pm
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} FX futures mirrors spot FX more often than not, and because futures contracts are exchange traded, they are reportable so I say this based on actual tangible figures, not based on retail client order book sentiment. Yes, technically it's still speculation as they may have cashed out already (unlikely as rates are not till last week of month), but it's a pretty well founded one, especially when they have been shorting the past 4 months, and then suddenly put on longs at the lows to coincide with rate announcements. That's a pretty damn good...
I see. So possibly buy eurusd at 1.1200...
  • #1,158,107
  • Jul 16, 2019 7:11pm Jul 16, 2019 7:11pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I see. So possibly buy eurusd at 1.1200...
Nobody knows where they got in, but a shit load of them did since last month. My entry was 1.1200 on a technical basis, but you might be able to get it cheaper
  • #1,158,108
  • Jul 16, 2019 7:22pm Jul 16, 2019 7:22pm
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} Nobody knows where they got in, but a shit load of them did since last month. My entry was 1.1200 on a technical basis, but you might be able to get it cheaper
A bit confusion here. I am not talking about previous. Did you buy at 1.1200 previously and still holding... or you're waiting for it to get to 1.1200 to buy it?
  • #1,158,109
  • Jul 16, 2019 7:34pm Jul 16, 2019 7:34pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} A bit confusion here. I am not talking about previous. Did you buy at 1.1200 previously and still holding... or you're waiting for it to get to 1.1200 to buy it?
I'm still holding from last week. I'll add to my position if I get a cheaper price than 1.1200
  • #1,158,110
  • Edited 9:33pm Jul 16, 2019 8:56pm | Edited 9:33pm
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} I'm still holding from last week. I'll add to my position if I get a cheaper price than 1.1200
Do you have an invalidation point, or you'll just keep adding? I ask because I have a completely different scenario in mind, and I believe it's going to be a slow burn down summer. Just my fallible opinion.

I booked my shorts last night and wanted to buy EU at 1.1193 for a bounce but I didn't get my desired price. Everything is speculation right now so I don't take what most people post, even mine, seriously. I definitely won't be in a trade on the 31st, except I'm already locked in profit before then.

Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} Wrong. EURUSD has already priced in the ECB cutting rates in July, in June whilst pricing in a no cut from the Fed. We got the lows of 1.200 from that. I'm not saying that it won't go lower, but I'm saying long is the only way to go. Long isn't the way to go if you think the upside is capped at 1.250, but it's not. The markets haven't priced in anywhere near a 50 basis points cut, whilst already pricing in an ECB cut, which may not happen. The upside then is huge (I have my targets near 1.400). Not only that, interbank large specs...
Then I saw this statement in bold. This statement in my humble opinion ignored a lot of the political and economic situations in Europe. Only Germany may survive such a price currently. I doubt the ECB will ever let such happen with the realities of present.

Quoting renatusmusic
For those still with a long position, this is what a pain trade looks like and where your investment into self and trading psychology pays for itself. We know that the ECB rate cut is already priced into the markets. We know that the Fed rate cut is NOT priced into the markets. We also know that smart money is positioned long (to confirm above two). And as rates are the sole biggest movers of a currency (all other economic data just informs central banks, and we are left guessing) we know DXY demise is inevitable come the 31st. The question is;...
And if the Fed cuts rates by 0.25% (0.50% won't happen in my books but even if it does), how about the interest rate differential? It still favours the USD. I don't see any demise on DXY. I can only see a March 20 FOMC kind of spike (1.1346 to 1.1446) and then a collapse again. Money will always flow to where the interest is, not the other way round. See what's happening at EURNOK for example.
  • #1,158,111
  • Jul 16, 2019 9:35pm Jul 16, 2019 9:35pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Do you have an invalidation point, or you'll just keep adding? I ask because I have a completely different scenario in mind, and I believe it's going to be a slow burn down summer. Just my fallible opinion. I booked my shorts last night and wanted to buy EU at 1.1193 for a bounce but I didn't get my desired price. Everything is speculation right now so I don't take what most people post, even mine, seriously. I definitely won't be in a trade on the 31st, except I'm already locked in profit before then. {quote} Then I saw this statement in...
My first buy was completely blind and based on large spec positioning, and my (correct) assumption of a contracting economy. The latter I knew would lead to a rate cut, which the Fed have been resisting as they have been hiking forever.
After Powell almost confirmed that he will cut rates on the 31st, I am now even more convinced of a DXY demise.
EUR is not the ideal instrument to be buying as volatility is low due to the Eurozone also contracting, but this is where you position according to your beliefs.

My belief is that all pessimism from the Eurozone contraction is already priced from June, and all negative data from this month is already in price. I also believe the Fed cut hasn't been factored at all, and even if it is a 25bp cut, we're looking at a sustained sell off of the DXY. Even though Germany has taken a shit on me, all I need is a reasonably stable economy to bet the US economy against. And as I still believe all pessimism has been factored into the Eurozone, at worst, the Euro won't move, but at best, there will be some upside.
  • #1,158,112
  • Jul 16, 2019 9:52pm Jul 16, 2019 9:52pm
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} My first buy was completely blind and based on large spec positioning, and my (correct) assumption of a contracting economy. The latter I knew would lead to a rate cut, which the Fed have been resisting as they have been hiking forever. After Powell almost confirmed that he will cut rates on the 31st, I am now even more convinced of a DXY demise. EUR is not the ideal instrument to be buying as volatility is low due to the Eurozone also contracting, but this is where you position according to your beliefs. My belief is that all pessimism...
Thanks for your answer. I wish you many pips in your trades.
  • #1,158,113
  • Jul 17, 2019 12:44am Jul 17, 2019 12:44am
pressure down with crazy 5th extension below 1226 or another leg below 1237 , so signal for up with breaks 1237 next , let play the down to back .still chances it reverse strong at or just below 1180/90!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,158,114
  • Jul 17, 2019 12:50am Jul 17, 2019 12:50am
No big data for the rest of the week.
If no political fuel, I guess it will swing around 1.1215 then dip more on a strong USD... or maybe bounce on 1.1200 support, no idea...

Intraday Resistance: 1.1220 - 25 - 40
Support: 1.1195 - 1.1200 zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Member
  • #1,158,115
  • Jul 17, 2019 12:59am Jul 17, 2019 12:59am
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} Wrong. EURUSD has already priced in the ECB cutting rates in July, in June whilst pricing in a no cut from the Fed. We got the lows of 1.200 from that. I'm not saying that it won't go lower, but I'm saying long is the only way to go. Long isn't the way to go if you think the upside is capped at 1.250, but it's not. The markets haven't priced in anywhere near a 50 basis points cut, whilst already pricing in an ECB cut, which may not happen. The upside then is huge (I have my targets near 1.400). Not only that, interbank large specs are picking...
Great post.

I noted your comment RE EURUSD reaching 1.4000? I think that's a bit far fetched. I agree that a dovish FED = correction time for EURUSD. However, we cannot forget that the EURO is so weak right now and with additional issues RE BREXIT, we cannot expect a correction to be that substantial, for this year anyway. I previously mentioned in a post that I believe 1.1400 is a good start for an upside target. A 50bps cut could push is back to 1.1700.

What really could excel longs is if the 'currency war' hype (that takes place anyway) becomes a thing. I don't expect this to happen over night, but possibly this could drive us much higher going forward for the next few years (assuming there isn't a recession haha)
  • #1,158,116
  • Jul 17, 2019 2:00am Jul 17, 2019 2:00am
WTF, this cat doesn't bounce at all ???
Simply is falling, and falling more... 1.1200 support area hit, let's see!
Member
  • #1,158,117
  • Jul 17, 2019 2:12am Jul 17, 2019 2:12am
Quoting TudorIoan
WTF, this cat doesn't bounce at all ??? Simply is falling, and falling more... 1.1200 support area hit, let's see!
Oh, thanks Mr. Coure, ...just in time!
Member
  • #1,158,118
  • Jul 17, 2019 2:24am Jul 17, 2019 2:24am
lmao. the ring leader is is sending his sheep en masse to the slaughterhouse.

Renat I got an idea for you, son. You could be the deputy of the bald man. How about that, kid?
You will be covering the fundies.
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  • #1,158,119
  • Jul 17, 2019 2:43am Jul 17, 2019 2:43am
going long here
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  • #1,158,120
  • Jul 17, 2019 2:46am Jul 17, 2019 2:46am
Quoting jpwtrading
going long here
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