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Trading Made Simple(r)

  • #1,341
  • Jul 13, 2019 6:50am Jul 13, 2019 6:50am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} Yes maybe by the concept of adding to winning positions, a basket of trades. Best regards
So true, almost done reading the book recommended by RH the Phantoms gift. Pop (books author) highlights increasing your chances of coming out profitable in the markets by pressing your winning trades in essence making up for your trades proved incorrect.

Perhaps we could share continuation/bounce trades to the forum for an added extra edge, just a thought.
The more you learn, the more you see
  • #1,342
  • Jul 13, 2019 7:30am Jul 13, 2019 7:30am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} I did NOT enter when the lower indicators were above the Purple 50 Line on the 4 hr. chart. Read post # 1279 where I said: I just shorted the EURCAD on the 4 Hr. chart. Then read post # 1293 where I said: I am ONLY showing a 5 min chart so people can see my entries and stops.
Thankyou for your response! So can I confirm, that your thought process was even though all the indicators didn't align for the 4HR chart for some of your entries (those above the yellow line), because the daily and weekly charts looked good you took the trade??

If my interpretation is correct, I think I am beginning to see the flexibility of your indicators and your approach, especially in a multi-timeframe analysis.
  • #1,343
  • Jul 13, 2019 7:47am Jul 13, 2019 7:47am
Hi Robinhood, I came across this thread recently, indirectly because I was reading SwingMan's thread where he posted some indicators. The past few days I have studied your method, and after some manual backtesting that looked promising, I coded up an EA to speed things up. Using SwingMan's indis made things much easier, as the entry rules for long & shorts where already coded in. Now I concentrated only on crossover setups, not continuations.

Now that's where I'm at a loss here, because after backtesting on quite a few pairs, mainly the H4 and D1, over the course of the last 5 years, the majority of the pairs tested are losing, and quite a bit, of money. And the few that are positive are actually quite close to BE. So I tested a few different exit methods: fixed pips, ATR ratios, ha candles changing color, Hull average changing direction... overall the different exit methods didn't change much, it made some pairs a bit better and others a bit worse. I'd say that on average that method resulted in a loss of around -15% for the past 5 years. (One of the better results I got was +14% on GU H4, with a 20%DD. But that same pair on D1 gave -0.3%, with a 10% DD. (2015->2018)).

I've checked if the signals were correct, and they all follow the rules that are described in the first posts. So if I trade this method and take every signal according to the rules, over time I'll lose money. Which brings me to wonder, since you've been successful with it, I suppose it means you don't take every signal? Are there other filters you have? Or then, how much discretion do you apply with this method? I have tried, visually, to analyse the losing trades and see if I could come up with something, but nothing struck me as obvious as to why I wouldn't take that trade.

Thanks for your thread and your input.
  • #1,344
  • Jul 13, 2019 8:17am Jul 13, 2019 8:17am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} Really great result you have there. you just follow RH rules on everything, excdept you have an target of 2r is that correkt ? Also how big in percent of Account is 1R ? Best regards
Yes. I follow RH's entry method precisely as the rules are written with a 2R take profit and a trailing stop every 4 hours. I use Swingman's oscillator of all the indicators so the visual of all the conditions being met are plain as day and there is no room for "wishful thinking" when reading the indicators in the second window. I don't trade with a percentage of account for position sizes but rather I risk a fixed dollar amount which is the same for every trade.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #1,345
  • Jul 13, 2019 8:36am Jul 13, 2019 8:36am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} Really great result you have there. you just follow RH rules on everything, excdept you have an target of 2r is that correkt ? Also how big in percent of Account is 1R ? Best regards
Take profit set to 2R ? What’s that mean ? Is it a percent of atr or do you mean 2nd resistance level ? Not sure thanks
  • #1,346
  • Jul 13, 2019 8:40am Jul 13, 2019 8:40am
Quoting Bluejay12
{quote} Take profit set to 2R ? What’s that mean ? Is it a percent of atr or do you mean 2nd resistance level ? Not sure thanks
1R is what you risk so for example 40 pips stops then 2R is 80 pips target or 3R 120pps and so on. or in percent you risk 1 R (1 percent to get 2R 2 percent

Best regards
  • #1,347
  • Jul 13, 2019 8:44am Jul 13, 2019 8:44am
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} Yes. I follow RH's entry method precisely as the rules are written with a 2R take profit and a trailing stop every 4 hours. I use Swingman's oscillator of all the indicators so the visual of all the conditions being met are plain as day and there is no room for "wishful thinking" when reading the indicators in the second window. I don't trade with a percentage of account for position sizes but rather I risk a fixed dollar amount which is the same for every trade.
where is Swingmans oscillator ?

It looks about 2.5 risk per trade

Best regards
  • #1,348
  • Jul 13, 2019 8:47am Jul 13, 2019 8:47am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} 1R is what you risk so for example 40 pips stops then 2R is 80 pips target or 3R 120pps and so on. or in percent you risk 1 R (1 percent to get 2R 2 percent Best regards
Thanks I get it now
  • #1,349
  • Jul 13, 2019 8:53am Jul 13, 2019 8:53am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} where is Swingmans oscillator ? It looks about 2.5 risk per trade Best regards
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...8&d=1561883366
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #1,350
  • Jul 13, 2019 9:33am Jul 13, 2019 9:33am
Quoting mooju
{quote} Thankyou for your response! So can I confirm, that your thought process was even though all the indicators didn't align for the 4HR chart for some of your entries (those above the yellow line), because the daily and weekly charts looked good you took the trade?? If my interpretation is correct, I think I am beginning to see the flexibility of your indicators and your approach, especially in a multi-timeframe analysis.

All of the lower indicators were below the Purple 50 Line on the 4 hr. chart when I placed the trade.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #1,351
  • Jul 13, 2019 9:37am Jul 13, 2019 9:37am
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...8&d=1561883366

Thank You

Best regards
  • #1,352
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:20am Jul 13, 2019 10:20am
Quoting Barraka
Hi Robinhood, I came across this thread recently, indirectly because I was reading SwingMan's thread where he posted some indicators. The past few days I have studied your method, and after some manual backtesting that looked promising, I coded up an EA to speed things up. Using SwingMan's indis made things much easier, as the entry rules for long & shorts where already coded in. Now I concentrated only on crossover setups, not continuations. Now that's where I'm at a loss here, because after backtesting on quite a few pairs, mainly the H4 and D1,...
1. On the 4 hr. charts and the Daily charts, did you first confirm EVERY TIME that the next higher time frame chart was moving in the same direction as the chart you used to enter on??

2. Did you ONLY enter trades when ALL 7 indicators "agreed"?

3. Did you CONTINUOUSLY EVERY 4 hours move your stop to 2 bars back throughout EVERY trade OR do the equivalent when entering on the Daily chart?

4. Did you exit when EVERY TIME you saw 2-3 indicators change color and/or cross the Purple 50 Line?

5. Did you EVER enter after a very large bar?

6. Did you ever enter when the market was CLEARLY in congestion, chopping back and forth going nowhere?

7. Did you EVER enter just before OR just after a HUGE PLANNED NEWS EVENT?

8. etc., etc. etc.

I have said before that I used to create and write the code for VERY, VERY, EXPENSIVE trading systems. And, do you know why I stopped? Because I was not able to program in ALL of the rules and idiosyncrasies needed, and I'll bet you, nor the vast majority of other traders can't either.

Integrating all of the rules and idiosyncrasies needed (and using them at the right times) are what makes someone successful a TRADER and not a ROBOT. If robots could be successfully programmed with "all of the trading rules and idiosyncrasies needed" like successful human traders do, then why can't they make robots into professional athletes that can perform as well as Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, and Babe Ruth? Hmmm.

Read a book called: "Insider Buy SuperStocks". He turned $46,000 into $6.8 million dollars in 28 months, a 14,972% increase. If he can do it, then why hasn't any mechanical trading system ever done it? The answer is...because of the reasons I stated above.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #1,353
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:22am Jul 13, 2019 10:22am
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...8&d=1561883366

How do we use it if we enter on green or red bars it is late signals it apears ?

Best regards
  • #1,354
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:36am Jul 13, 2019 10:36am
Sometimes i read TMS thread but i am bored of everyday fight between two members. Ones i found this thread about system with simple rules. I have to say i like it and i downloaded template and indis and watch charts in H4 TF. Every time i see potential setup on H4 i look at D1. And do you know what i see? Trend on higher TF is opposite to trend on H4.
It prove that it is no hope for me to trade trend based systems.
BUT.
Maybe better option would be to divide all pairs into 3 grups. 1st - in up trend on D1, 2nd - in downtrend on D1, 3rd - no trend.
Then pairs from group 1 scan on 4H chart for long setups, and pairs from group 2 scan for short setups.
This could eliminate trades on H4 couter to D1 trend
Quantitative Algorithmic King
Angel MichealBot (Old v1) All Time Return: 2,489.8%
  • #1,355
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:39am Jul 13, 2019 10:39am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} How do we use it if we enter on green or red bars it is late signals it apears ? Best regards
When a green bar or red bar appears it means all the indicators are above/below 50 as far as I understand.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #1,356
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:40am Jul 13, 2019 10:40am
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} When a green bar or red bar appears it means all the indicators are above/below 50.

And you have taken away some of the lines also ?

Best regards
  • #1,357
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:43am Jul 13, 2019 10:43am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} 1. On the 4 hr. charts and the Daily charts, did you first confirm EVERY TIME that the next higher time frame chart was moving in the same direction as the chart you used to enter on?? 2. Did you ONLY enter trades when ALL 7 indicators "agreed"? 3. Did you CONTINUOUSLY EVERY 4 hours move your stop to 2 bars back throughout EVERY trade OR do the equivalent when entering on the Daily chart? 4. Did you exit when EVERY TIME you saw 2-3 indicators change color and/or cross the Purple 50 Line? 5. Did you EVER enter after a very large bar? 6. Did...
It is so very interesting to me how a sound methodology can be given and some traders make it work and others can't After analyzing this week I took 8 trades with this methodology, won 4 and lost 4 and added 21% to my account because of my chosen money management strategy. Fascinating to see how other traders' results differ so widely.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #1,358
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:44am Jul 13, 2019 10:44am
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} And you have taken away some of the lines also ? Best regards
Yes. I don't think they are adding anything to the indicator and I don't like necessary clutter on my charts
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #1,359
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:45am Jul 13, 2019 10:45am
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} It is so very interesting to me how a sound methodology can be given and some traders make it work and others can't After analyzing this week I took 8 trades with this methodology, won 4 and lost 4 and added 21% to my account because of my chosen money management strategy. Fascinating to see how other traders' results differ so widely.
That's so true. It's always truly amazed me.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #1,360
  • Jul 13, 2019 10:49am Jul 13, 2019 10:49am
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} It is so very interesting to me how a sound methodology can be given and some traders make it work and others can't After analyzing this week I took 8 trades with this methodology, won 4 and lost 4 and added 21% to my account because of my chosen money management strategy. Fascinating to see how other traders' results differ so widely.
Trading is an art.
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