Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 109 | Forex Factory

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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #2,161
  • Jul 12, 2019 2:27am Jul 12, 2019 2:27am
Hereunder you will find the ” Nominal Model” listed in the Cyclitec Course expressed : – in calendar days (CD) (I have not taken into account the bi-sextiles years) – in theoretical trading days (TD) (5 trading days (TD) per week – in “real” trading days based on an average annualized count issued from a study of an american trader rounded to 256 Trading Days (TD) .

If you compare both Nominal Models the difference between the initial Model of Profit Magic and the Nominal Model proposed in the Cyclitec Course, you can observe that :

– the 3 years Cycle,
– the 1 year cycle .
– the 6 months cycle
– the 3 months cycle

have disappeared without explanation

Then you observe the appearance in the model of cycles expressed in days
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  • #2,162
  • Jul 12, 2019 2:29am Jul 12, 2019 2:29am
The Simplified Model (for the Dummies)
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  • #2,163
  • Jul 12, 2019 2:30am Jul 12, 2019 2:30am
The same “Simplified Model” expressed in calendar and trading days
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  • #2,164
  • Jul 12, 2019 2:31am Jul 12, 2019 2:31am
clemmo17,

not sure if you know that i use the Delta cycles and no Hurst stuff for my outlooks.

The NDX started a new cycle at the end of 2018 which will topp with the 3rd higher high in the pink count (SLTD-5 - not shown).

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,165
  • Jul 12, 2019 3:37am Jul 12, 2019 3:37am
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} I'm not sure if Sixer still frequents this thread but I'd be curious to know how he evaluates the usefulness of this forecast in light of recent events. Note that I believe David Hickson to be among the best pure Hurstonian practitioners, so it is not meant to be a criticism of the man. However I prefer the pragmatism that I find in PB's approach, where (it seems to me) he takes what is useful from several practitioners and applies it to a strategy that suits his personality. This approach seems to avoid overly formal, pedantic and confusing/contradictory/complicated...
Quote :

The practical result of this kind of variation is that the nominal cyclic model is useful (as are all the rest of the basic cyclic principles) as a necessary guide —but a specific, or current, cyclic model must be tailored to each issue in the process of analyzing a trading situation.

Hurst Course – Chapter 1 – How Price Action works
  • #2,166
  • Jul 12, 2019 4:00am Jul 12, 2019 4:00am
The Wilshire Index count from "Daneric" for comparison to my NDX outlook.

Sixer
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  • #2,167
  • Jul 12, 2019 4:52am Jul 12, 2019 4:52am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Quote : The practical result of this kind of variation is that the nominal cyclic model is useful (as are all the rest of the basic cyclic principles) as a necessary guide —but a specific, or current, cyclic model must be tailored to each issue in the process of analyzing a trading situation. Hurst Course – Chapter 1 – How Price Action works
And that is how I began my adventure with bands/envelopes. I have been adjusting a version of Mladen's TMA envelopes using the nominal model popularized by Hickson on his website; I am not sure how he picked his version. I create a different band with half-lengths corresponding to the 1day, 5day, 10day, 20day, 40day, 80day, 20week, 40week, 18month cycles and so forth, nest them, and then adjust as needed (arbitrarily/visually) so that the bands fit most of the data. Since the bands are costly to the CPU I put monthly bands on MN, weekly on W1, daily on D1 to H4, and so forth. It seems to work well enough, but...

I am wondering if it would be more effective to use your idea of dividing the tradeable range into 8 octaves. Not only can I then see the overall position of price on only one screen (instead of hopping up and down timeframes) but maybe it is more scientific.
  • #2,168
  • Jul 12, 2019 4:54am Jul 12, 2019 4:54am
Quoting Sixer
clemmo17, not sure if you know that i use the Delta cycles and no Hurst stuff for my outlooks. The NDX started a new cycle at the end of 2018 which will topp with the 3rd higher high in the pink count (SLTD-5 - not shown). Sixer {image}
I am not familiar with Delta Cycles. I don't think they came up on this thread unless I overlooked it somewhere in the last 100 pages or so? Where can I learn more about them?
  • #2,169
  • Jul 12, 2019 5:30am Jul 12, 2019 5:30am
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} I am not familiar with Delta Cycles. I don't think they came up on this thread unless I overlooked it somewhere in the last 100 pages or so? Where can I learn more about them?
Food for Thoughts
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Wilder, Welles - The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order In All Markets.pdf   9.3 MB | 3,167 downloads
  • #2,170
  • Jul 12, 2019 10:05am Jul 12, 2019 10:05am
DAX Closed Short position + 27 points
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  • #2,171
  • Jul 13, 2019 2:53am Jul 13, 2019 2:53am
Is this a good place to discuss Delta cycles? I don't mind creating a new thread if this will be disruptive.

My first reaction is to be scornful since so much of the book is a thinly veiled scheme to sell books. The Delta Society is something right out of a Dan Brown novel.
It appears to me that the core of the system is a modified Elliott count combined with astrology, neither of which I place much faith in for forecasting markets.

The book also claims that the Delta Phenomenon is not cyclical but on the Delta Society website they say,

"Each market, like a fingerprint, has its own unique solution.
These solutions are created for specific time frames. The time frames and solutions were first developed by Welles Wilder and Jim Sloman in 1984. They include a 4-day cycle, a 4-month cycle, a 1-year cycle, a 4-year cycle and finally, a 19-year cycle. " Which is consistent with Hurst's nominal model. Then there is Ray Frechette - who is this link to Hurst?

From experience I know it's dangerous to reject everything based on a single reading so I'm going to go through it again. Sixer, do you have much experience with them?
  • #2,172
  • Jul 13, 2019 3:29am Jul 13, 2019 3:29am
Quoting clemmo17
Is this a good place to discuss Delta cycles? I don't mind creating a new thread if this will be disruptive. My first reaction is to be scornful since so much of the book is a thinly veiled scheme to sell books. The Delta Society is something right out of a Dan Brown novel. It appears to me that the core of the system is a modified Elliott count combined with astrology, neither of which I place much faith in for forecasting markets. The book also claims that the Delta Phenomenon is not cyclical but on the Delta Society website they say, "Each...
Me too !
  • #2,173
  • Jul 13, 2019 3:49am Jul 13, 2019 3:49am
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} I'm not sure if Sixer still frequents this thread but I'd be curious to know how he evaluates the usefulness of this forecast in light of recent events. Note that I believe David Hickson to be among the best pure Hurstonian practitioners, so it is not meant to be a criticism of the man. However I prefer the pragmatism that I find in PB's approach, where (it seems to me) he takes what is useful from several practitioners and applies it to a strategy that suits his personality. This approach seems to avoid overly formal, pedantic and...
David is a nice guy and a great coder. David developed Sentient Trader Software which is a great Hurstonian software.

But David positioned himself as selling "Hurst" work.

For me Hurst is not an icon, it is just a man like me. His work was unfinished, partial, and he kept silent what he owes to the researchers of the FSC (Foundation for the Study of Cycles)

His "cycles principles" are all false in the real world, at the minimum ambiguous. And it is a guy who uses his tools everyday who says that !

Hurst book and Hurst Course are dated, of their time, produced for traders which did not have access to a computer. They are a very good compromise with reality between theory, methodology and reality.

As for Hurst Cyclic Model - it not a "model" as something ideal, but just the practical state of cycles in 1970 and 1975. Hurst Cycle "model" is something "relative" and not "absolute"

Any way Hurst Cyclic Model is a good entry point for cyclic status of an entity.

Hurst Cyclic Model is an AVERAGE model. IMHO It is a DISCOVERY model. If you test a financial entity with Hurst Model you will find variations - more or less important.

Let's say that you have a 10 % variation on a "9 year Cycle" = 108 months - what are you doing with an 11 months variation ?
  • #2,174
  • Jul 13, 2019 4:04am Jul 13, 2019 4:04am
Everyone interested in Cycles and in "Hurst Cyclic Model" should meditate this table issued from Profit Magic.

It is a data spectral analysis "explaining" how Hurst is reputed to have build his "Model"
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  • #2,175
  • Jul 13, 2019 5:10am Jul 13, 2019 5:10am
Well, I don't want anyone to think I am taking cheap shots because after all, I would prefer to look foolish and make a profit than to be right all the time.

So I attempted to make a chart of gold ( a commodity, and it seems that Wilder/Sloman focused mainly on them at least to start) and cross-reference it with the full moon phases that I found at https://www.calendar-12.com/moon_phases.

To its credit, the theory makes definite statements that are falsifiable, as any good scientific theory should, so it is already better than most technical analysis but it seems the statements are false nonetheless.

"Markets repeat directly or inversely every four lunar months."

I fail to see such repetition here, unless I have botched my chart, which is of course, likely, for a novice. I tried to place the first point at the all-time lows, as recommended, but it is often hard to know if a 'promontory' is significant enough to earn a number, so, like Elliott, different counts are possible. The 'inversion point' is also very handy when the count cannot be made to make sense.
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  • #2,176
  • Jul 13, 2019 5:10am Jul 13, 2019 5:10am
hello Parisboy,

thanks for all these information, have you had experience with John Ehler work or Brian Millard channel stuff?

best regards.

Quoting parisboy
{quote} David is a nice guy and a great coder. David developed Sentient Trader Software which is a great Hurstonian software. But David positioned himself as selling "Hurst" work. For me Hurst is not an icon, it is just a man like me. His work was unfinished, partial, and he kept silent what he owes to the researchers of the FSC (Foundation for the Study of Cycles) His "cycles principles" are all false in the real world, at the minimum ambiguous. And it is a guy who uses his tools everyday who says that ! Hurst book and Hurst Course are dated,...
  • #2,177
  • Edited 5:53am Jul 13, 2019 5:39am | Edited 5:53am
clemmo17,

pls. take into consideration that the Gold Matrix count you have presented in post #2175 is not correct.

Copan used for all underlyings the S&P count as basis with 11 turning points for the MC2/MTD time frame.
BUT: The Delta soultion for Gold has 10 turning points for this time frame (plus inversions).

I have added the MC3/LTD solution (black) too fyi.

Sixer

Edit:
The Delta count indicates an important High at the end of 2019 --> the completion of [b]wave
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  • #2,178
  • Jul 13, 2019 6:02am Jul 13, 2019 6:02am
GOLD 1 mn
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  • #2,179
  • Jul 13, 2019 6:07am Jul 13, 2019 6:07am
GOLD 5 mn
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  • #2,180
  • Jul 13, 2019 6:11am Jul 13, 2019 6:11am
GOLD 15 mn
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