Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

Thanks mate. Actually the H4 tf showed a very good bearish order flow and technical pattern and a small sell trade to the magenta line on the chart I atached in the initial post is feasible. But I usually look for higher R:R potential as I tend to leave my trades open for days, so I will await a pullback to an area of value on the D1, which is my setup time frame.Trade safe.KP

The situation turned out successful but the bearish momentum will benefit from a pullback.

KP

Quoting KeenPips

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Thanks mate. Actually the H4 tf showed a very good bearish order flow and technical pattern and a small sell trade to the magenta line on the chart I atached in the initial post is feasible. But I usually look for higher R:R potential as I tend to leave my trades open for days, so I will await a pullback to an area of value on the D1, which is my setup time frame.Trade safe.KP{quote}

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XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market on the weekly time frame has been bullish for quite a long while, breaching significant highs along the way. Presently, price action is located above the multi-year high created in July 2013. However, the bullish momentum appears to be in decline as the market printed an inverted hammer around the 1434.85 resistance zone last week. And we may see a retracement to an area of value soon.



A topping pattern is developing around the 1426.15 horizontal resistance area on the daily time frame but a rising trendline (red) is still in play. We may see further sideways of price action or a retest of the trendline. A target of any southward retracement of price action is the immediate horizontal support around the 1390 area.



A wedge pattern (blue) has formed on the H4 time frame and bearish prints are predominant within it. We may see a breakdown of the wedge foe a bearish pullback to an area of value. The 1390 area is such a likely place where price can pullback to. A breakdown of the rising trendline (red) seen on the daily time frame is likely going to see bears target the 1348 horizontal support area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPCAD market on the weekly time frame is basically in consolidation but presently with a bearish momentum. Bearish price action rejected a rising trendline (blue) seven weeks ago but there has been a limited follow-through since. Last week, price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick, but the small wicks at both ends indicated that bears were not fully in control. Trading is presently taking place around the 1.65730 horizontal support and we may see some sideways in the area.

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On the daily time frame, price action has moved to far from the value area without significant pullback and we may see a retracement to the immediate broken down previous horizontal support around 1.67830/1.68930 (bound by magenta horizontal lines).

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On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a sharply falling trendline (black). The candlesticks printed in the last four sessions on Friday favour the bulls and a northward breach of the falling trendline (black) may result in a retracement to, perhaps, the 1.67830/1.68930 area (bound by magenta horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPJPY market is in a corrective phase of an impulsive falling trend on the weekly time frame. Seven weeks ago, price action breached southwards a rising channel (blue) and is now in a sideways mode around the 136.430 horizontal support. The candlestick prints in the last two weeks are doji-like and ambivalent.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating within an inner falling channel (red) and presently located around the channel support trendline. In the last few days, bulls have shown more influence in price action than bears and we may see them take price action further northwards and within the channel.

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On the H4 time frame, price action has formed a triangular pattern (black) and presently operating near the upper trendline. Any northward breakout of the triangle is potentially a fading opportunity for a sell trade, giving the bearish impulsive trend on the weekly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDJPY market is in a consolidation mode on the weekly time frame. Last week, the market printed a bullish candlestick that pierced the above the middle of the bearish candlestick printed the previous week. Both candlesticks are between the 108.615 horizontal resistance and the 106.930 horizontal support, with last week’s candlestick inching towards the 108.615 horizontal resistance.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a falling channel (blue) and bullish prints are bearing northwards, perhaps to retest the channel resistance line. Technically there are barriers to any northward move, including the 108.450 minor horizontal resistance (magenta) and the 109.540 significant horizontal resistance. Nevertheless, any retracement is likely to be temporary and a sell trading opportunity is a more feasible option.

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On the H4 time frame, early price action on Friday favoured a bullish response but bears became influential later. So, we had an ambivalent situation. Therefore, how price action plays out in the early part of this week should be watched. I hold a bearish bias USDJPY but a feasible sell trade is not likely to materialize until a northward pullback to an area of value. I will wait for a favorable northward pullback before committing to any sell trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is still disposed positively although on the weekly time frame the bullish momentum is weakening. Recent price action has printed top-shadow wicks at a multi-year resistance zone on the weekly time frame.



A topping M-formation has formed on the daily time frame but a rising trendline (red) is still intact. Technicals on the daily time frame still favour the bulls.



On the H4 time frame, price action briefly breached a rising trendline (red) southwards but bulls have managed to take price back to keep the trendline in play. Although the candlestick printed in the last session of Friday is ambivalent, the bullish print a session earlier is an indication of the intention of bulls to be influential in the market. Should bulls succeed, we may see a retest of the multi-year horizontal resistance around the 1432.00 area. But they have to contend with the immediate horizontal resistance around the 1420.60 area. At any rate, bulls are likely to retain control of the market in the early part of this week.



I am bullish XAUUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

After ranging for the first four months this year, the GBPCAD market has disposed southward since May 2019. In June, the market printed a bearish continuation candlestick and technical on the monthly time frame favour more negative move. The 1.61080 is a significant horizontal support area.



Price action on the weekly time frame is disposed negatively and the technical are in sync. Last week it printed a bearish continuation candlestick and we may see bears target the 1.61080 horizontal support area as target.



The bearish move of price action on the daily time frame has been parabolic in nature and I expect a pullback to an area of value in the early part of this week. The 1.66070/1.66810 horizontal resistance is likely to be such a value area and may result in a role flip for a southward turnaround after such a pullback. We should also be aware of the falling trendline (blue) from May 6, 2019 which is still in play as resistance.



A minor resistance trendline (black) is in play on the H4 time frame but it is rather acute and likely to be breached for a northward pullback, perhaps to retest the outer trendline (blue).



I am bearish GBPCAD, but I will await a northward pullback to an area of value on the H4/D1 timeframe before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

Technically, the GBPNZDY market is still range bound on the monthly time frame. In June 2019, the market printed a bearish candlestick as follow-up of the bearish pinbar printed in May but price action is located just a few pips above the 1.87890 horizontal support, which is the lower part of the range. A breakdown of the 1.87890 area is likely to expose the 1.80890 handle.



The weekly time frame shows a GBPJNZD market operating in a consolidating, horizontal channel. An inner ascending channel (red) recently formed has been breached southwards. Looking left and judging by the preceding price action patterns, we are likely to see a bearish continuation with the 1.84030 inception area as target. The bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago broke down a minor horizontal range but there was no follow through last week leading to the printing of a doji-like candlestick which pierced but did not break the 1.87890 horizontal support. We may see a pullback to an area of value early this week, perhaps the 1.90605 monthly pivot, which adjoins the base of the horizontal range broken down two weeks ago, before a bearish continuation.



A falling trendline (black) is in play as resistance on the daily time frame. Bulls took price action northwards from a horizontal support are last week Thursday and had a follow-up on Friday. However, given the holidays in the USA and Canada last week we may have to await further price action in the early part of this week. A pullback to an area of value, say the 1.90605 area or the falling trendline (black) is likely to be temporary and may give way to a southward turnaround.



I am bearish GBPNZD on a medium-term basis. The short term is likely to be sideways or a bullish move and temporary in nature.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPJPY market is presently sideways on the monthly time frame. The bearish candlestick printed is May was apparently aimed to target the low (131.220) of the long-tailed bullish candlestick printed in January 2019. The indecision candlestick printed in May indicated a pause in directional momentum, but any bearish continuation will likely target the 131.220 zone.



On the weekly time frame, price action printed a bearish candlestick last week after the print of indecision candlesticks three and two weeks ago. However, the candlestick has a lower shadow and failed to breach the low of the candlesticks printed three weeks ago. Besides, the operation is located at the 135.560 horizontal support zone. Therefore, we may have to await how the market handles the 135.560 area in the early part of this week.



On the daily time frame, the technicals favour a bearish continuation. But a retracement is likely because a Tom-Demark falling trendline (black) is in play and its northward breach by price action is likely to lead to a retracement to an area of value.



A bottoming pattern can be seen on the H4 time frame. Price action is making a retest of the broken-down 135.880/137.230 horizontal channel (magenta). The pattern indicates a sluggishness in bearish momentum, and we may see a retracement to an area of value, perhaps the falling trendline (black) or the broken-down horizontal support around 137.670.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPJPY market is operating around a multi-month support zone. An indecision candlestick was printed in the zone in June. The May candlestick print was decisively bearish but was not able to breach the zone. Any bearish follow through after the present indecision is likely to break down the zone.

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The technicals on the weekly time frame favour bears but presently the bearish prints have been relatively insignificant. This indicates a weakening of bearish influence. We may see bulls attempt a northward pullback this week.

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A bottoming pattern has emerged on the H4 daily time frame. Given the most recent preceding pattern of price action, we may see a retest of the broken down rising trendline (magenta) or an area of value, say the 136.300 former horizontal support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

A symmetrical triangle (red) has formed on the GBPCAD monthly time frame with price action presently located at the proximal line around the 1.62850 horizontal support. A breach of the proximal line southward is likely to meet with contention around the 1.60750 horizontal support.



The market printed a small indecision candlestick on the weekly time frame around the proximal trendline of the symmetrical triangle (red) seen on the monthly time frame. This is indicative that bulls may likely step in to contend for market influence. As the 1.62850 horizontal support is a only about 120 pips below present price location, we may see bears test the area before any retracement northwards. At any rate, we may not see much bearish momentum until a significant breakdown of the 1.62850 area.



On the daily time frame both bulls and bears have recently been in contention of order flow. The parabolic move that earlier marked the descent from the 1.77340 area on May 6, 2019 has waned; and we may experience a pullback to retest a broken-down area of value. One such area is the 1.65100/1.66300 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is in consolidation. The weekly time frame shows a 300-pip horizontal channel (1.27680/1.24920) within which recent price action has been confined. Last week, a bullish pinbar was printed at the proximal channel line; a likely intention of bulls to challenge the bearish print of the previous week. A follow through is likely to see bulls target a value area, perhaps the high of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago.



On the daily time frame, the market printed three bullish candlesticks in the last three days of last week. This may see bulls attempt a retest of the broken-down horizontal support around the 1.27680 area.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bullish candlestick printed on the monthly time frame in June 2019 is acting as a reference or master candlestick, spanning a 248-pip range (1.11270/1.13650) that was initiated with a bearish print in March.



Price action is in a horizontal consolidation on the weekly time frame. The candlesticks printed in the last four weeks are within a smaller range with the range (1.12000/1.13650) seen on the monthly time frame. This has rejected the lower section of the monthly range and we may see bulls test the upper end this week. The market made a bullish print last week and we may see them following through in the early part of this week.



A rising channel (magenta) is apparent on the daily time frame. Recent price action favours bulls to move price action further northward in the channel. Nevertheless, there has been a lot of ‘wicky’ candlesticks in the channel that it will be better to step aside from this market until a directional momentum is established.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Very strong analysis, LIKE

Thank you.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting fadi66

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{quote} Very strong analysis, LIKE

Ignored

Here is what I'm looking at over the coming days/weeks aswell as my thinking. Let me know what you think..

AUDCAD - Bullish

W1: Positive divergence on MACD
W1: Price at bottom of Bollinger Band signifying potential reversal
D1: Price closed above strong resistance area held since 24 June
D1: Price closed above 20 SMA to upside
D1: Price pull back from 50 SMA
D1: Positive divergence on MACD
H4: Price pulled back into strong support area held since 24 June (old resistance, new support)
H4: Price pulling back to descending 200 SMA as potential dynamic support
H4: Price approaching rising 20 SMA as potential dynamic support







CADCHF - Bearish

W1: Price inside channel moving down from resistance
D1: Price at 20 and 200 SMAs as dynamic support, so caution here
D1: MACD line crossing below signal line histogram crossing below zero
H4: Price break below 20 SMA
H4: Price closed below support area
H4: Price retraced back to resistance area (old support, new resistance)
H4: Negative divergence on MACD against horizontal resistance area







XAUUSD - Bullish

W1: Various doji patterns over past month - which signifies potential market indecision and potential market pressure relief before pushing higher
W1: Moving averages in up trending order (20 > 50 > 200)
D1: Price closed above descending support
D1: Price retraced to support zone (old resistance, new support)
D1: Price at 20 SMA as rising dynamic support
D1: Moving averages in up trending order (20 > 50 > 200)
H4: Price closed as doji at descending support
H4: Price closed at 20 SMA as rising dynamic support
H4: Moving averages in up trending order (20 > 50 > 200)

Good contribution mate. Based on the recent candlestick prints on the weekly and daily time frames, I think XAUUSD is experiencing some bullish weakness and we may see a southward retracement in the early part of this week before a bullish recharge for a northward momentum.

Trade safe.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPCAD market printed a long-tailed doji candlestick on the weekly time frame at a horizontal support zone last week. This represents ambivalence or indecision of price action. Although technically the bears are favoured, we may see further sideways of price action in the early part of this week.



A morning star pattern was formed on the daily time frame this week at a horizontal support zone. A northward follow-through of price action in the early part of this week is likely to see a retest of a value area, say the 1.64880/1.65910 area, or the falling trendline (purple).



The H4 time frame shows price action respecting a minor rising trendline (blue), much likely in retracement for a temporary correction. A southward breakdown of the minor trendline with a retest for a role flip will likely result in a bearish momentum.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

A rising wedge pattern (red) is conspicuous on the GBPAUD monthly time frame. In April, the market printed a bearish pinbar rejecting the wedge resistance trendline and bears have made further progress towards taking price action near the wedge support trendline but there is still a long way to go.



On the weekly time frame, price action has rejected the high of the long-tailed bearish candlestick printed in the last week of December 2018 and bearing southwards within the rising wedge (red) seen on the monthly time frame. Presently, the order flow context favours bears and we may see further southward move within the wedge this week. The 1.71600 area is a horizontal support and may be exposed should bears manage to pierce the wedge support trendline.



On the daily time frame, price action is operating within a falling channel (black). Recent market prints favour bulls to retest a value area, perhaps the 1.79650/1.80930 breached horizontal resistance area (bound by magenta horizontal lines). Such a retracement is likely to be a temporary in nature, giving way to a southward turnaround.



On the H4 time frame, presently price action is grinding a consolidation and based on recent technical patterns, this may result in a retest of the immediate minor horizontal resistance around the 1.78870 area; should the area not hold for southward turnaround, we may see the 1.79650/1.80930 area witness a southward turnaround.



I hold a short-term bullish bias (a northward retracement to the 1.78870 area or the 1.79650/1.80930 zone) for the early part of this week, which is likely to give way to a southward turnaround for a medium-term bearish mode in the later part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP