EURUSD

or may rise to 1219 and stop

lets agree on 12155 half way between 1212 and 1219 LMAO

Ok, lion!

If a long does not work maybe a short in at 1.1198

1.1202 even better

Hi,

My view on tonight and the rest of the month...

Technical:

EUR/USA is still in its downward track since January and after Bulls failed to break up at 1.1347 the 1.1100 is an almost guarantee. MORE IMPORTANT for TODAY and this week, is the inverted Head-and-Shoulders forming on the USDOLLAR chart. Visible on D1 but clear on H1.
If FED CUT or After FED announce no cut for today, but sound more dovish for a cut later this year, the dollar will drop... depending on the cut or how dovish.
The EUR/USD will spike up strong and fast
BUT... will remain stuck in the downward track and as confirmed by Draghi yesterday, not in a good place. Strong Brexit is almost also confirmed with BoJo vote causing GBP to drop. The weakness of the EUR and GBP + the USD Bulls coming to their senses, that it is not yet an recession, will cause the dollar to rise and complete the Head-and-Shoulder. EUR/USD will come back down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1560925667


Fundamental:

Like all trades this could be wrong. Personally, for my current trade I'm in, I hope for a Hawkish statement causing the Dollar to rise /Euro to fall, and keeping my trade alive. I am ready though to take profit, wait for the spike to turn and sell again. The numbers coming out is not looking good, not yet declining, but weakening enough. Brexit is placing huge strain on Europe already struggling ,like the rest of the world, for growth. This is not my biggest concern.

I am from South-Africa and we had a corrupt president using something called "State Capture" to profit from the country's people. This caused a ripple effect that is throwing our country into an recession. This could be confirmed with another Moody's downgrade later this year.
The US is currently sitting with a president that could be abusing his power by using trade sanctions to manipulate currency to improve his own investments in the stock market? I am all in favor of somebody putting China in it's place. You cant just Sell Sell Sell without giving something back. The way Mr Trump is going about business, See-Sawing trade sanctions up and down.. then it's on, then It's off don't feel like the right way to take this on?
More important is the way he is trying to intimidate Powell? This brings back memories of the type of intimidation and cabinet shuffling Zuma practiced in his tenure as president. The US should be careful that they don't have something called "Market Capture" happening as we speak. It is not good for the world that any one person, who like all of us have personal interests at heart, to be controlling the worlds markets as he does.

I am an amateur and could not have a clue of what I am talking about? Your input on this.. Positive or Negative.. is welcome because I love to learn from this Forum.

Thanx and Happy Trading!
Johan

busted 4.5 pips

going long at 1200 sl at 1150 tp 1300

Daily or H4 resistance very possible

long 1.1202

Keeping my 1.1202 short, stop above 1.1220 ...let's see

They successfully locked up bear money, next Money Contest, see which side run out of money first, or feel too much risk

thoughts for upcoming FOMC


On the Fundamental side :

Inflation in the US remains low : YoY Core PCE Price Index (FED's preferred measure of inflation) is at 1.6%, well below FED's target (2%). As important, survey-based measures of LT inflation expectations keep falling. On the employment front, unemployment rate remains low. However last pay roll employment showed little changes and prior month's release was revised down. Business early indicators keep falling (Business confidence, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, ...) with some already on the edge. Economic activity raised at a strong rate at previous Q (yoy 3.1%) but GDP print was boosted by technicalities to avoid the upcoming tariffs. Expectations for Q2 growth are <= 2%. On the international front, Trade wars, tariffs, protectionism, uncertainty are expected to weigh more and more on US economy.

=> Expecting no change in the rate decision but a very very dovish FED acknowledging the macro deterioration with plenty of revision downs in their economic projections and - the real deal - hinting a new shift in forward guidance , from neutral to cut bias, that will guarantee a rate cut as early as next meeting (July) if inflation keeps disappointing and flip in macro is confirmed.

As a quick reference for later, and ceteris paribus in EUR :

- a 50bp cut later in the year will unlock FA level 1.161x in EURUSD
- a 75bp cut later in the year will unlock FA level 1.191x in EURUSD

(That explains a lot Draghi's move yesterday)


On the Technical side :

- In EURUSD, smart money has already started to preempt FED's shift with a ST reversal on D1 (cf. charts below). A ST reversal in Dollar Index (DXY) was triggered as well. Current legs all across the board are just retrace to last break point (1.118x and 97.7x for reference in EURUSD and DXY).

- These reversals have already unlocked 1.144x in EURUSD and 95.7x in DXY as final target of ST swing trading FED's shift fact.

- For the MT, breaking up these levels (will probably need a cut fact for that), will trigger reversals on W1, unlocking as high as 1.191x in EURUSUD and as low as 92.6 in DXY (with extrem at 1.215x and 91.0x respectively)

EURUSD D1



EURUSD W1



DXY D1

Woah, I love your thorough analysis, guys! ...but always remember, in days like these it's mostly a 50-50 game
Anyone palying roulette here?...

wwo EUR/USD bullish going to 1370. sl 11.11 long way FOMC as well as ECB same way to moon eur

Draghi might send a subtle answer to Trump ...again later, at the closing remarks at the ECB Forum in Sintra
That can possible sink the EUR/USD again ...a least for a little while... until Powell
Draghi: Oh, yeah...!
Donnie: Mommy, look, Mario has a bigger firechief toy car, waaah, wah, wah!
Draghi: Hey, Donnie, look here, ...vrrooommmm, weeeee, weeee!...
Donnie: Moooooommy!....

OUT + 2.4 PIPs

No? SL still holding...

We will see what President Trump tweets next after the FOMC event. He probably wants a big rate cut, which should help EUR.

He will fire Powell