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Trading Made Simple

  • #96,701
  • Jun 17, 2019 9:14pm Jun 17, 2019 9:14pm
EURUSD Jun 18 h4 example comparing Stochastics (8,3,3) and Stochastics(14,3,3)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Jun 18 H4 18-06-2019 10-08-52.png Size: 61 KB


Risk: H4 in now sideways ranging consolidation (MC3) but that can also be the opportunity for a breakout this week.

Note: remember what Big E said about RSI(13) cross its 50-level.****
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #96,702
  • Jun 17, 2019 11:51pm Jun 17, 2019 11:51pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11834080#post11834080 Market Type to trade Big E' TMS 5-Method: {image} You would need to use the First Key.... link, https://www.axitrader.com/au/market-...x-market-types have nice day!
You know what’s he problem with that?

The market condition is only visible to the past.

You enter a trade because you think you are in the „right“ market condition but you don’t know how long this type of conditions stays the same and
just after you placed your trade it switches it condition and you are screwed.
  • #96,703
  • Edited 3:24am Jun 18, 2019 3:07am | Edited 3:24am
watch out for EURUSD when it rally ...start in H4. "Emmanuel"


Sir , would you please expand on your thought here? I am new to trading , I'm shorting here in the 4h tf
pbnjm"The worst lie you can ever tell is the one you tell yourself"
  • #96,704
  • Jun 18, 2019 3:27am Jun 18, 2019 3:27am
Euro stumbles ...

https://www.forexlive.com/technical-...rency-20190618

so those holding shorts last week ... be happy!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #96,705
  • Jun 18, 2019 3:51am Jun 18, 2019 3:51am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Euro stumbles ... https://www.forexlive.com/technical-...rency-20190618 so those holding shorts last week ... be happy!

Thank you Emmanuel. I enjoy thread very much!
pbnjm"The worst lie you can ever tell is the one you tell yourself"
  • #96,706
  • Jun 18, 2019 4:14am Jun 18, 2019 4:14am
Quoting lddd
{quote} You know what’s he problem with that? The market condition is only visible to the past. You enter a trade because you think you are in the „right“ market condition but you don’t know how long this type of conditions stays the same and just after you placed your trade it switches it condition and you are screwed.

that is true.

therefore when we enter the market we must also know when we get out .. when the market type conditions has changed and not longer in our favour.

we always have capital protection as our top priority.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #96,707
  • Jun 18, 2019 4:40am Jun 18, 2019 4:40am
Another example when RSI Price Line crosses the Trade Signal Line when both lines are pointing in the same direction.

It all depends on the price and its momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HK50 green cross red in same direction 18-06-2019 14-24-49.png Size: 97 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #96,708
  • Edited 6:48am Jun 18, 2019 5:41am | Edited 6:48am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} that is true. therefore when we enter the market we must also know when we get out .. when the market type conditions has changed and not longer in our favour. we always have capital protection as our top priority.
Yes, sure but wouldn’t it make analyzing the right type of market condition before taking any entry setup a kind a unnecessary?

Also in a trending price environment (I guess that’s where we preferable want to trade TMS) such TDI entry signals (green/red crossover) are rare to find.

To me it looks like once you are inside of an established trending direction you won’t find these type of setups.

So let me ask you two questions

1.) How do you find a rule based approach first spotting the right kind of market condition like higher highs higher lows, how many swings or single candles you determine to be needed in making higher highs higher lows before you can finally say, „okay now you are in an uptrend“ and looking for a potential buy entry. Also it varies from timeframe to timeframe you look at which leads me to the next question

2.) For what time frame you do this, just the one
you trade on, the next higher one, the next two higher once? What if the time frame you want to trade for e.g. M15 is currently trending but H1, H4 looks like a complete mess, will you still enter on M15?

There are tons of variables left undeclared by the OP. Not saying I did read all of his posts yet but quiet a lot. Shame there is not much detailed information here maybe some videos of live trades of the TMS where price action on the right side of the chart wasn’t already there...

Maybe I am the only one here having problems with that „chaos“ ?

There is so much about the indicators and finding that perfect entry/exit, okay but everything around it left out at least looking at a setup from A-Z, not starting by Y...

Post 647 is therefor quiet a joke to every newbie trader as every little statement there is nearly not explained in detail with any chart, most of BigE‘s examples totally focused on the TDI.

I would wish some experienced long term trader having success with TMS (like tekkies o.O) could make a live video series for at least once month.

This would not even costs anything or takes a lot of extra work.

Start recording your screen while you start your trading day, stop the record for the end of your trading day. Simply cut out all inactive periods for the recorded video by the end of the day so it doesn’t get to big in file size for uploading and then do this day by day for 20 days...

i would even pay for this if anyone could do this so I maybe would learn from it instead of watching randomly picked “static“ winning trade chart examples which I think isn’t really efficient and quiet outdated, I mean we are in 2019, posting static images reminds me on 1990...
  • #96,709
  • Jun 18, 2019 6:22am Jun 18, 2019 6:22am
Quoting lddd
{quote} You know what’s he problem with that? The market condition is only visible to the past. You enter a trade because you think you are in the „right“ market condition but you don’t know how long this type of conditions stays the same and just after you placed your trade it switches it condition and you are screwed.
I've seen you ask this sort of question, in various ways but essentially the same question, quite a few times now. Let me try and explain something to you, with the greatest respect.

Trading is discretionary to a greater or lesser degree, depending on the method employed. But no matter the method, the essential ingredient that makes one person trading a method successful, and another person trading the same method a failure is 'discretion.'

For example....lets look at this from a 'checklist' standpoint by substituting the indicators and crosses etc for simple equations. Here we go:

Lets say we want to see abc in order to enter a trade. Here's a quick and dirty little equation:

if a == a
& b == b
& c == c

Then a + b + c == abc

So - Enter the trade and make pips

Q: So, in the above, we have got the abc that we wanted so why does that equal a good trade setup and pips sometimes, but not other times? Why when I follow the same set of rules do I not make pips every time?

A: Because, the market is dynamic and it doesn't (often) conform to the same set of 'rules' which is why we need to use an element of discretion. The only way to get good at this mysterious discretion element is by experience I'm afraid. Lots and lots of chart experience.

It's for the same reason that robots won't work without incurring massive drawdowns...because robots (EA's) cannot use discretion. If discretion were not needed, then the robots and simple entry equations would work and the market would not exist!!

So....you need to spend a LOT of time on the charts, there is no other way.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #96,710
  • Jun 18, 2019 7:53am Jun 18, 2019 7:53am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} I've seen you ask this sort of question, in various ways but essentially the same question, quite a few times now. Let me try and explain something to you, with the greatest respect. Trading is discretionary to a greater or lesser degree, depending on the method employed. But no matter the method, the essential ingredient that makes one person trading a method successful, and another person trading the same method a failure is 'discretion.' For example....lets look at this from a 'checklist' standpoint by substituting the indicators and...
Thanks for your kind reply. Yes don’t get me wrong i am not looking for a shortcut, I totally agree with you that it needs time like everything else in life.

I just wondered about all that market conditional stuff as like I said everything is relative here again watching price moving (or not) in different time periods and I could not found clear answers by the OP of this strategy how to deal with it.
  • #96,711
  • Jun 18, 2019 8:07am Jun 18, 2019 8:07am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks for your kind reply. Yes don’t get me wrong i am not looking for a shortcut, I totally agree with you that it needs time like everything else in life. I just wondered about all that market conditional stuff as like I said everything is relative here again watching price moving (or not) in different time periods and I could not found clear answers by the OP of this strategy how to deal with it.

I think that you're smart enough to know that there are no shortcuts in FX trading...unfortunately!

I also think that it's fair to say in the times of the OP, and up to maybe 5 years ago, or thereabouts, trading was much easier than it is now. The reason being that algorithms take care of a lot of trading for hedge funds and the like, whereas in the 'good old days' it was all done by the traders on the trading floor. Of course the floor traders are much more prone to bad decisions and mistakes, where the algorithms are much less likely to suffer this fate! In the 'good old days' NFP (for example) would move the market in swings of 200 pips in just the NY session. EU would move 150 each and (almost) every day......many pairs moved a lot. But now, I saw one day this week, maybe yesterday, GJ with an ATR of 65 at about this time. EU with an ATR of about 45!!!

It's still possible to make good pips, but it takes time. I have made +126 on Gold since Frankfurt today with an ATR of 156. I've had to wait 7 hours and add to winners (I don't add to losers because averaging down is stupid) to get that total. But that's what it takes, so that's what I have to do.

It ain't easy, but with patience, discipline and much time spent learning your craft, it IS possible. What isn't possible though, IMO, is to follow someone else and make the same returns as they do. Why not?.......DISCRETION is why not!!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #96,712
  • Jun 18, 2019 8:59am Jun 18, 2019 8:59am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} I think that you're smart enough to know that there are no shortcuts in FX trading...unfortunately! I also think that it's fair to say in the times of the OP, and up to maybe 5 years ago, or thereabouts, trading was much easier than it is now. The reason being that algorithms take care of a lot of trading for hedge funds and the like, whereas in the 'good old days' it was all done by the traders on the trading floor. Of course the floor traders are much more prone to bad decisions and mistakes, where the algorithms are much less likely to...
Yes. Would not say 5 years, I was first involved into trading forex markets with 18 years (now i am 35) and even when I started there were already a lot of algos trading.

Also i would not agree with that’s there are no automated systems doing good results for years in all kind of market dynamics.

I am also trading such automated system for nearly 4 years now but however you can’t can’t expect a 20-30% monthly return with a low drawdown for that. Mine is 2-3% on average per month with highest drawdown of 16% so far.
  • #96,713
  • Jun 18, 2019 9:06am Jun 18, 2019 9:06am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes. Would not say 5 years, I was first involved into trading forex markets with 18 years (now i am 35) and even when I started there were already a lot of algos trading. Also i would not agree with that’s there are no automated systems doing good results for years in all kind of market dynamics. I am also trading such automated system for nearly 4 years now but however you can’t can’t expect a 20-30% monthly return with a low drawdown for that. Mine is 2-3% on average per month with highest drawdown of 16% so far.

I'm not certain of the exact time, date or reason for the drop off in volatility, but when I started about 10 years back, trading was a lot easier.

Perhaps there are some EA's that work with some success....I should have said that 'I've never seen one one that works without huge dd.'
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #96,714
  • Jun 18, 2019 9:13am Jun 18, 2019 9:13am
I love this thread. I am just coming on but I think trading can be very simplified if you know how to manage an account. I am currently longing USDJPY and i think this pair is going to continue to rise for the next month. But I will trade it in a way that if it breaks the support it is on it wont hurt my account
  • #96,715
  • Jun 18, 2019 9:58am Jun 18, 2019 9:58am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} I'm not certain of the exact time, date or reason for the drop off in volatility, but when I started about 10 years back, trading was a lot easier. Perhaps there are some EA's that work with some success....I should have said that 'I've never seen one one that works without huge dd.'
Yes it used to be more volatile. I think for manually scalping forex for a few little pips per day i would agree that it’s incredible hard become consistently profitable.

Have you looked at the Bitcoin, perhaps that’s more volatile ;-)
  • #96,716
  • Jun 18, 2019 10:07am Jun 18, 2019 10:07am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes it used to be more volatile. I think for manually scalping forex for a few little pips per day i would agree that it’s incredible hard become consistently profitable. Have you looked at the Bitcoin, perhaps that’s more volatile ;-)

Noooooo not Bitcoin!!!

I trade the same few pairs every day. Never change the pairs as I have a reasonable understanding of their 'personality' now, which helps a great deal in making pretty consistent pips. If there's no pips on any given day, then so be it. Another day tomorrow, no?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #96,717
  • Jun 18, 2019 10:41am Jun 18, 2019 10:41am
Quoting realjumper
{quote} Noooooo not Bitcoin!!! I trade the same few pairs every day. Never change the pairs as I have a reasonable understanding of their 'personality' now, which helps a great deal in making pretty consistent pips. If there's no pips on any given day, then so be it. Another day tomorrow, no?
Yes good habits.
  • #96,718
  • Jun 18, 2019 1:02pm Jun 18, 2019 1:02pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} About migration from MT4 to MT5, it is hard work which I already started last year and will start forward testing until end of 2020. Best way and the cleanest is to re-write from scratch with the requirements specifications. As an example, to re-write my MEME trade manager about 3500 lines code into MT5 took about 9 months. Most time spent learning while coding and debugging. Indicators and scripts are straight forward and much easier, takes lesser time. Read this: Migration from MT4 to MT5 https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/81
I was starting to think about this likewise and dread the thought given the work involved converting the code. Like many I have been fond of Mt4 for years. Perhaps too many... but its time to move on.

With this in mind has anyone already made a start on conversion of the indicators? Any help or thoughts would be appreciated.

Thanks
Fig
  • #96,719
  • Edited 3:12pm Jun 18, 2019 2:54pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting figgsey
{quote} I was starting to think about this likewise and dread the thought given the work involved converting the code. Like many I have been fond of Mt4 for years. Perhaps too many... but its time to move on. With this in mind has anyone already made a start on conversion of the indicators? Any help or thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks Fig
the two indicator for TMS 5-Method have been migrated to MT5.

not more green cross red ... just look the cloud colour of the TDI.

interpreting Post#261 and Post#647 has become easier - to see what the short term and long term price momentum when we are have our trading timeframe all in one chart.
no longer need to flip chart timeframe up and down... no more repainting of lines ... just stay on once chart and make decision

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Edit.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #96,720
  • Jun 18, 2019 3:10pm Jun 18, 2019 3:10pm
look tdi, lucky
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