The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

1. Don't judge book by it's cover - Fat men can kick butt too :-)
2. Not all Fat men are couch potatoes (and not all forum members are Lazy)
3. Don't engage in fight unless you are getting paid (forum members can learn a lot lol)
4. Don't punch the referee lol

Nice!

QQ - Knowing what you know what algos do along with the infrastructure and access to whatever data you have, can YOU devise a 100% automated algo to "detect and beat" what another algo (or even SM algos) do? meaning, can an algo mimic/compete/beat another algo? i.e. battle of the algobots lol

EU H4:

EU M15:



I TAKE PROFIT on all my long EURUSD trades.........as expected, the SM Algos pushed EU UP against all the red bars; going for their MTS accumulations......



Stay safe,
FF

"

1. Don't judge book by it's cover - Fat men can kick butt too :-)
2. Not all Fat men are couch potatoes (and not all forum members are Lazy)
3. Don't engage in fight unless you are getting paid (forum members can learn a lot lol)
4. Don't punch the referee lol"

Nice one V!

;-)

Also;

in boxing, it is about who is actually better at BOXING; it is NO BEAUTY CONTEST..............a chubby fighter with the better TECHNIQUE can outperform a "good looking body builder"..............

FF

"can YOU devise a 100% automated algo to "detect and beat" what another algo (or even SM algos) do? meaning, can an algo mimic/compete/beat another algo? i.e. battle of the algobots lol "


I do trade manually, as well as in an automated fashion, also in a "hybrid" fashion......

While we on the buy side will never be on the same level as the SM Algos on the sell side, of course I on the buy side DO incorporate the manipulation principles in whatever strategy I employ. Yes, the SM Algos also have counter-strategies to these again; for example by conducting gaps etc. It IS a cat-and-mouse game; but then again, in trading, there will never be perfection.

You will never have a 100% win rate, and the few who do (for example by employing arbitrage strategies) only do so for a LIMITED amount of time.
Most ARB funds perfomed amazingly for some time until they blow up.
No coincidence.

It is a good idea to DIVERSIFY in terms of markets, time-frames, strategies, approaches.
Do not put all your eggs in one basket.


FF

"Don't judge book by it's cover - Fat men can kick butt too :-)"

As Taleb says, "Fat Tony" (=street smart) will beat an "empty suit academic" (= theoretical, incorrect knowledge); DESPITE a lack of "formal" education, clean language etc.

Applied to here;

a SMART trader UNDERSTANDING the SM Market Manipulation will outperform a "bookish" trader who believes in the "supply & demand fairy tale" and is further away from the actual market reality than the street smart.

Think about that. Then think again.

FF

I run this thread by EXPOSING the actual MARKET STRUCTURE; day by day. My charts are CLEAN; but all the essential info is there.
I explained the principles in intuitive videos.

If you one of the few who STILL does not get it;
even though I put the MARKET REALITY in nice colours; in this visually pleasing way; serving it to you on a plate;
then consider that you MAY not be up to the challenge of ever becoming a successful FX trader.
There is NO SHAME in coming to that conclusion; in fact; it may SAVE MANY A LOT OF MONEY AND SORROW (coming back to the "retiree example").

I wish someone would have done for me back then what I am doing here now.

Stay safe everyone,
FF

EJ H1:

Thanks for the details FF. I do want to expand a little bit on "Do not put all your eggs in one basket." because I have done some extensive research (but all in CRAPT4 so it really doesn't count in the real world practicability of the solution). One of my research efforts was "If given unlimited capital, How many positions will it take to ALWAYS end in positive expectancy?" during any accounting period day/week/month whatever.?

If anyone can learn how to create such a always-win "theoretical" model, we can learn a lot about who currencies are designed. It can never ever go up or down in one direction forever. I tried in one pair but the risk profile was unacceptable so moved to doing it across 28 pair correlated currency baskets and came across some fascinating observations. we are talking 10000s of open positions for such a model to always-win. so, here's my question.... Do You think these SM cartal algo has such a algo devised that will ALWAYS win using ONLY theoritical/mathematical correlations alone without any knowledge of DM positions? Do such a theoritical model exists in your opinion (with unlimited capital) ?

Edit: one of my models revealed how many positions will return 100% of equity in realized profits (with some floating loss ofc) and I put that to use in live and it works quite well under most conditions. This may be just voodoo in my mind but feel there is a "perfect mathematical balancing" formula as part of the overall global fiat currency design which was put in place to "GAIN trust" in the functioning of fiat floating currencies. I am of the early days on how fiat currencies were SOLD to the world economies? Would the finance minister simply accept global supply/demand/trade/gdp whatever as a reliable source to allow anyone to "speculate" their country's currency? I don't think they are stupid to leave their country's future on such a model. There has to be something concrete (from a mathematical standpoint) essential to the smooth functional of these inter-twined currencies. if not, EVERY currency would be forced to peg to the dollar. would it not?

Edit2: I have not read the black swan (by design and intention) but whenever we have a flash crash, recovery is also very soon. could it be that they use such a mathematical balance to trigger rapid recovery ?

EU H4:

"Do You think these SM cartal algo has such a algo devised that will ALWAYS win using ONLY theoritical/mathematical correlations alone without any knowledge of DM positions?"

I would not think so.

Indeed, the main driver in FX is the SM moving against the DM; subject to the principles as shown and meta-levels.

Now, that being said; the SM does definitely incorporate things such as "higher time frame patterns" and targets; which can over-rule the short-term bias etc. This is covered via the "meta-levels" I have not published here.


However; there are Algo Funds who do not conduct the price manipulation as the SM Cartel does. These are active in particular NICHE spaces; such as arbitrage, correlations etc. Most are in the high-frequency world and completely unavailable to retail. Some of these entities could be termed "semi-smart". They do not have to be price-movers..................and they neither need to depend on directional risk......

FF

"Would the finance minister simply accept global supply/demand/trade/gdp whatever as a reliable source to allow anyone to "speculate" their country's currency?"


Well, without question, the SMC price manipulation DOES have a SIGNIFICANT impact on whole economies; which may be shocking; and certainly on large corporations. In the world of economics (I studied economics); it is all explained with the "DEMAND-SUPPLY-LIE" and that is what politicians also assume.

Remember that the SMC and central banks will NOT fight each other; and that the SMC would incorporate CB trading activities. These are not DM bars.

On another note; economic news announcements are also massaged and manipulated, but that is another topic.

FF

"always-win "theoretical" model"

Careful with any "always in strategies"; most of the time these do not work in the real markets.

FF

"There has to be something concrete (from a mathematical standpoint) essential to the smooth functional of these inter-twined currencies. "

Well, central banks DO USE such models for their "monetary policy" and open market operations.

But CBs work quite long-term. They leave all the short-term manipulation to the SMC.

FF

" flash crash, recovery is also very soon. could it be that they use such a mathematical balance to trigger rapid recovery ? "

"Flash crashes" are nothing but exaggerated stop-runs.

I made a video about this:

QUESTION:

Does anyone have an MT4 script / indicator / EA which:

- places the trade arrow in the chart (object) for any position that is opened (for different magic numbers)
- makes sure that arrow STAYs (even if the platform is closed or the time frame changed)
- also keeps the "lines" (object) for any trades that were done

?

I experience that if I re-start MT4, some of the trade arrows get lost.

Thanks for PMing me.

FF

NoteL:

In the best case, the script should be able to place all the trade arrows of the trades done on the account in a separate chart window;
(even though these trades were done in different windows, but on the same account); and the respective arrows should be changeable in terms of colour.

So i.e. buy arrow from magic number 1, default blue.
Buy arrow from magic number 2, default light blue etc.

Thx.

EU M15: