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Staying In My Lane - A Read-Only Journ(al/ey)

  • #501
  • May 2, 2019 5:56pm May 2, 2019 5:56pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} OR tell me if I am offbase with my design to curtail DD and explode equity. Let's assume every trade possibility is 1R and 50% win/loss as the next tick is unpredictable WARNING: I am sharing my algo here so probably too much for your simplistic approach but perhaps for others to comment on TP=LimitDD: If this is enabled, exit trade when floating profitable ticks = realized ticks*2 when account is running in profit for the day - This will explode profits exponentially exit trade when floating profitable ticks = realized ticks/2 when account...
i have no idea what this is so you have nothing to worry about
  • #502
  • May 2, 2019 6:28pm May 2, 2019 6:28pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} though every trade is essentially a gamble we dont treat as a gamble but a way to score money. Take a job that yeilds say 100 an hour if i work 8 hours i make 800 if i work 16 hours i make 1600 if i work 24 hours a day i make 2400 a day and be dead in 72 hours enough to bury you. One thing you have discovered as day goes on the market seems to change from hour to hour. Trading is about accumulating money you were up 1100 yesterday why continue? Greed says i can make more. i am just sharing how i approach the market its totally up to you...
Thanks D. Believe me, I am digging deep into the inner bowels of my psyche to understand if this was
1) pure greed on my part
2) or just following my MM plan (3 contractx100T=$1500*200days=$300K times 3 wins (or 9contacts) = $1M/yr)
3) or I have some free time, let's make more as "opportunity still exists in the market"
4) gambler's attitude of "why stop.... today is my lucky day"

2 and 3 are acceptable. 1 is alright too but 4 is unacceptable!

EDIT: adding 5) over-leverage as 3 contracts / 10K capital is too aggressive. When I settle on a strategy, $10K/contract is more doable if I let my losses run up to 100T
Staying in my lane...
  • #503
  • May 2, 2019 6:51pm May 2, 2019 6:51pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks D. Believe me, I am digging deep into the inner bowels of my psyche to understand if this was 1) pure greed on my part 2) or just following my MM plan (3 contractx100T=$1500*200days=$300K times 3 wins (or 9contacts) = $1M/yr) 3) or I have some free time, let's make more as "opportunity still exists in the market" 4) gambler's attitude of "why stop.... today is my lucky day" 2 and 3 are acceptable. 1 is alright too but 4 is unacceptable! EDIT: adding 5) over-leverage as 3 contracts / 10K capital is too aggressive. When I settle on...
you're basically relying on "money management" to dictate your exit criteria? this is no different than trying to impose pnl goals in trading which what I said earlier to be pointless.

My belief is that market analysis has to be structural to begin with and your exit should also be based on similar analysis; either based on s/d, order flow,change in bias, etc. This is why i don't really believe in fixed target/sl. The exit has to be within context of market structure and volatility. So as the market's volatility changes, your exit strategy naturally adapts to that. The only thing you change is size to account for risk-even that you can impose rules (% of range for example)...
  • #504
  • May 2, 2019 6:55pm May 2, 2019 6:55pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} you're basically relying on "money management" to dictate your exit criteria? this is no different than trying to impose pnl goals in trading which what I said earlier to be pointless. My belief is that market analysis has to be structural to begin with and your exit should also be based on similar analysis; either based on s/d, order flow,change in bias, etc. This is why i don't really believe in fixed target/sl. The exit has to be within context of market structure and volatility. So as the market's volatility changes, your exit strategy...
screw my advice man..

i think you just can't get away from your pnl goal mentality..
  • #505
  • May 2, 2019 7:05pm May 2, 2019 7:05pm
i think he wants to find away to make 300000 a year not realizing he doesnt have to make 100 ticks a day to do it or putting on a ton of trades
  • #506
  • May 2, 2019 7:08pm May 2, 2019 7:08pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} screw my advice man.. i think you just can't get away from your pnl goal mentality..
I don't entirely rely on PnL goals. similar to you reaching your x% of ATR to stop trading during the session, I do have similar stop trading rules.... but only in my algo design. Yesterday was my first day of testing my 3contract MM equation to see if emotionally I can handle it.

I also have many many market structure based profit and loss exits (including fixed tick TP/SL which I hate and never use but it is there as part of the design). What I have shown in my screenshot is what I have tested and show merit to be "promoted". I have over a dozen more in "testing phase" currently. It really is an automation and not some algo that will run hands-free.
Attached Image
Staying in my lane...
  • #507
  • May 2, 2019 7:11pm May 2, 2019 7:11pm
Vee do the math and see if you can make the 300000 a year making less ticks and more contracts if the setups you use are of high probability
  • #508
  • May 2, 2019 7:13pm May 2, 2019 7:13pm
Quoting Divergence
i think he wants to find away to make 300000 a year not realizing he doesnt have to make 100 ticks a day to do it or putting on a ton of trades
Because I am not convinced that trade by trade performance will be exactly similar when trading 3 contract versus 30 contract/trade. And also because the scale-up model cannot be backtested and expect the same results in live environment. Order flow will always have a different signature with varying contract size imo

+ Emotions will play a huge factor in scaling up no matter at what pace you increase.
Staying in my lane...
  • #509
  • May 2, 2019 7:16pm May 2, 2019 7:16pm
all the setups i use i look at the same way high probabilty, do some of them lose yes but most win so i just keep putting them on with no emotion at all because most times they hit target
  • #510
  • May 2, 2019 7:18pm May 2, 2019 7:18pm
Quoting Divergence
Vee do the math and see if you can make the 300000 a year making less ticks and more contracts if the setups you use are of high probability
Math is what I do all day brother :-

30 contracts X 10T * $5 = $1500 *200 days = $300K/yr
or 3contracts x 100T $5 = $1500/day *200days = $300K/yr

10T is very easy if there is no risk or SL involved :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #511
  • May 2, 2019 7:22pm May 2, 2019 7:22pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Math is what I do all day brother :- 30 contracts X 10T * $5 = $1500 *200 days = $300K/yr or 3contracts x 100T $5 = $1500/day *200days = $300K/yr 10T is very easy if there is no risk or SL involved :-)
right now the way the market is moving i have reduced target to 12 ticks with 6contracts getting 2 wins and shutting down makes 720 a day2880 a week roughly 150000 yearly to make 300000 it just takes 12 contracts doing the same thing and most importantly trade only 1 HOUR 4 days a week
  • #512
  • May 2, 2019 7:24pm May 2, 2019 7:24pm
Quoting Divergence
all the setups i use i look at the same way high probabilty, do some of them lose yes but most win so i just keep putting them on with no emotion at all because most times they hit target
emotions are always involved in my case even when not trading, I see a setup with a good winrate and my optimism flies thru the roof until it fizzles into nothingness lol I dont know how you do this every day. Scaling up can be the answer but not from 3 to 30contracts in few months... it will take atleast 2-3 yrs to get there just like it took you a while to scale up to 6 contracts trading a goal of 2x25T.
Staying in my lane...
  • #513
  • May 2, 2019 7:28pm May 2, 2019 7:28pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} right now the way the market is moving i have reduced target to 12 ticks with 6contracts getting 2 wins and shutting down makes 720 a day2880 a week roughly 150000 yearly to make 300000 it just takes 12 contracts doing the same thing and most importantly trade only 1 HOUR 4 days a week
true but I will NEVER have 100% winning days. but I get your point but you haven't answered why the 3rd trade within the first hour on the same day is any different than the first trade on the following day? This is my struggle to get over
Staying in my lane...
  • #514
  • May 2, 2019 7:28pm May 2, 2019 7:28pm
it took me a few months to go from 2 to 4 to 6 you never need to go to 30 contracts 12 contracts can make you the 300000 with 2 wins a day thats the math and math never lies
  • #515
  • May 2, 2019 7:30pm May 2, 2019 7:30pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} true but I will NEVER have 100% winning days. but I get your point but you haven't answered why the 3rd trade within the first hour on the same day is any different than the first trade on the following day? This is my struggle to get over
just like my target is 2 wins my target is to make 5 to 700 a day i use to have a limo business and i worked on commission when i made 500 i went home could i have made more yes but life isnt about working all the time
  • #516
  • May 2, 2019 7:34pm May 2, 2019 7:34pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Math is what I do all day brother :- 30 contracts X 10T * $5 = $1500 *200 days = $300K/yr or 3contracts x 100T $5 = $1500/day *200days = $300K/yr 10T is very easy if there is no risk or SL involved :-)
do you know any verified retail futures trader that makes 300k/year?

let's start with that lol.
  • #517
  • May 2, 2019 7:35pm May 2, 2019 7:35pm
Quoting Divergence
it took me a few months to go from 2 to 4 to 6 you never need to go to 30 contracts 12 contracts can make you the 300000 with 2 wins a day thats the math and math never lies
Math never lies and you are correct if you are encountering 100% winning days that means your probability is very high. I am not there yet and frankly I can never expect myself to be way up there. 2-3 consecutive losses/days will upset the underlying math :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #518
  • May 2, 2019 7:39pm May 2, 2019 7:39pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Math never lies and you are correct if you are encountering 100% winning days that means your probability is very high. I am not there yet and frankly I can never expect myself to be way up there. 2-3 consecutive losses/days will upset the underlying math :-
today i had a win loss win win stopped as far as do i know any futures traders that make 300000 no i dont but there probably is i am not one of them 100000 + thats fine for me
  • #519
  • Edited 8:16pm May 2, 2019 7:39pm | Edited 8:16pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} do you know any verified retail futures trader that makes 300k/year? let's start with that lol.
It is irrelevant how much retail or professional futures trader make. 300K is how much I currently make and that is how much minimum I expect to make if I were to replace my income from trading :-) If I can't then trading is not a worthwhile endeavor for me. As I said, I come with a different perspective :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #520
  • May 2, 2019 7:47pm May 2, 2019 7:47pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} It is irrelevant how much retail or professional futures trader make. 300K is how much I currently make and that is how much minimum I expect to make if I were to replace my income from trading :-) If I can't then trading is not a worthwhile endeavor for me. As I said, I come with a different perspective :-
ok fine.

I mean you have a good job now, in your 50s right? so you got at least 10 years of good working life left before your brains starts to go lol. So just take it easy G.

I think we both started futures about the same time (about a year ago?), so we're total noobs here. So there's no need to hasten this beautiful process of trading to get to to your goal.

Just enjoy the process of learning and embrace setbacks. Trade 1-2 contracts max on that 10k. NQ is a monster as you know. You already know how fast you can lose your money even with few contracts if you're not careful

alright enough talk man...time to grind. GL
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