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Trading Made Simple

  • #95,421
  • Apr 30, 2019 10:30am Apr 30, 2019 10:30am
holy s*** GU took off without me ... LOL.

anyone caught that big move today with Trading Made Simple?
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,422
  • Apr 30, 2019 11:41am Apr 30, 2019 11:41am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi gj7rwt, How did you manage that H1 trade? I did a quick POMO review below and follow up today. Compare your H1 trade (A) and later another H1 setup (B) which I compare using the MACD(2,13,7) to replicate the TDI. study both the TDI cross and MACD cross. {image}
Hi Emmanuel 7788.

From memory the management of the trade went something like this.

TDI dash highlighted 1hr buy.
Checked 1 hour chart. Liked TDI angle and stocs confirming.
Checked 4hr chart, looked like TDI and stocs could be ready for turning
Took these signs as a good entry.
Set s/l (82.50) just below recent swing low, not the most recent as this was a bit too close to entry level
Set t/p just below recent swing high.
Took profit early as I wasn't going to be able to monitor the position this evening. I see my original t/p level would have just been reached !

I liked your macd indicator lining up with the 'b' entry. That's something worth looking in to further.

Cheers
Andy
  • #95,423
  • Apr 30, 2019 12:03pm Apr 30, 2019 12:03pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
holy s*** GU took off without me ... LOL. anyone caught that big move today with Trading Made Simple? {image}
I caught some of it on H1 but I left a lot on the table. I exited after a Double Top formed and price pulled back.... as it happened, price was just retracing and it then continued to rise during NY but I wasn't at my laptop to monitor my charts during these hours anyway.

In hindsight all the signs of a big move were there. We saw a fairly tight range yesterday, even for a Monday. Also, often on this pair, when price makes a clean break of the 200 EMA during a period of high volume, it can create some big moves.

I expect price could hover around the 800EMA (H4 200EMA) for a while now, particularly as volume will be dropping as NY draws to a close and we enter the Asian session. I'll be watching closely for a retracement back to the 23 or 38 Fib (white lines on my chart)
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Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #95,424
  • Edited 5:35am May 1, 2019 12:55am | Edited 5:35am
Position closed at 12:33 utc due to tdi and stocs turning

Just taken the reverse of yesterday's trade. Now gone short Cad/Jpy.
S/L 83.55
T/P 82.75
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  • #95,425
  • Edited 5:36am May 1, 2019 2:22am | Edited 5:36am
Position closed at 12:33 utc due to tdi and stocs turning

taken a short on EUR/JPY

S/L 125.35
T/P 124.80
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  • #95,426
  • May 1, 2019 2:53am May 1, 2019 2:53am
Quoting Tekkies
Question: Do you stay with the rules or do you bend the rules? ---- Blou dot > Perfect bounce trade. First chart: - M15 > green bounce red, angle above 1. - H1 > green has crossed red already, angle above 1. - Both Stoch confirm direction. ----- This bounce was a good one, what about those that did not bounce enough? ---- Second chart: V-Line > Fake bounce - M15 > Green bounce red, Stoch confirm direction, angle above 1 - H1 > Green flat, Stoch does not confirm direction {image} {image}
This is a good example where taking a bigger view from your higher time frame chart, H1 here, could help you decide if you really want to deal with finding setups. Look only to the left before your trade. There are equal highs but higher lows, clearly showing a consolidation. Also, look at the price action right after those highs are put in. Notice the large bear candles. This is a good sign that these are likely larger sell orders that commercial traders had unfilled from earlier attempts to sell at this level, plus some retail traders jumping in to sell as price fails to break to new highs. With only the images provided being considered, I would pass on this.

From what I have seen, this system performs best when trading within a strong trend. Price consolidation like in these examples needs much more experience and finesse to achieve reasonable levels of success. I either look at other pairs for good trends where simple rule following will give good results, or just simply stay out of the market during these consolidations.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #95,427
  • Edited 8:46am May 1, 2019 6:35am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, good post and example how to read the price action. ...example of PA and bounce setup. Quality post that is what we need in this thread for all to learn from. market made a very strong rally after 3 weeks of short range swings. strong rally to a new high but fails to make higher highs, then corrects with small candles, one small pull back and then the big candle ... a Bearish Engulfing Outside Bar BEEB/BEOB which is one of my favourite setup candle which show lots of momentum and the RSI price line will show. {image}...
Thank you emmanuel for the encouragement, im trying to learn this system for perfectness and setting an objective of 70% to 80% of success trades in long term.
here is some of my analysis for now, your comments will be appreciated very much.
1-i didnt enter the gbpcad trade because of the strong resistance there.
2-i didnt enter the gpbusd because of overbought.
3-i didnt enter USDCAD because the daily do not confirm it.
4-i took the euraud, everything is fine except the resistance, i took the risk.
5-a perfect one on the USDCHF.
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  • #95,428
  • May 1, 2019 7:45am May 1, 2019 7:45am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} DE30 Trades closed Apr 29 and 30 - Month End closing. Hi hikaru259, You asked for a better view of my trade entries and exits, I show them in M5 as most of my trades are done every 4-hours and when I am manually trading and managing, I wait for 4 hour candle period to close. below are examples of trade taken last week and closed yesterday and today - its month end, I close all and tomorrow start a new month clean. {image}
Thank Emmanuel,
I love it so much, I'm taking my time to build money management strategy. Beside mental psychology, money management (positioning and exit/cutloss & let's profit run plan) will be my core. TMS is only an entry and exit strategy, it can not be my winning edge. TMS will help me to enter the trade but to be able to manage it to become a wining trade, i need more. I know it when seeing the statistic of April 2019. Numbers say it all.

And again, thank for your help. I appreciate your knowledge.
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  • #95,429
  • May 1, 2019 12:01pm May 1, 2019 12:01pm
I closed it minutes before the disaster xD ...
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  • #95,430
  • May 1, 2019 12:02pm May 1, 2019 12:02pm
Hello Everybody,
Firstly let me thank you for so big effort everybody is putting into this thread. I am happy for it and try to implement it to my using. I am reading and studying BigE´s proposals to TMS. I am very open and try to figure it out. Nevertheless, I have some issues with understanding of trade time porposals.
As he wrote, that he was trading first three hours of USA session... In that time he was going to sleep. Maybe I misunderstood something. Could you please advice? See enclosed picture.

Quoting eelfranz
I prefer to trade the 4hr charts at night. My broker posts new 4 hr candles at 10pm my time (Pacific), 2am my time and 6am my time. My page when I open up my charts has 8 open charts. I just glance at the TDI for set ups when the new candle opens... If I see a set up... green just crossing red I'll take the trade, turn off the puter and go to bed. Four hours later (1:50am) my alarm goes off for the new candles and I take a peek... if I see a new set up I'll enter and go back to bed with the last alarm at 5:50am my time. I close all trades at that...
Best regards,
Tomas
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  • #95,431
  • May 1, 2019 4:44pm May 1, 2019 4:44pm
Quoting tbu84
Hello Everybody, Firstly let me thank you for so big effort everybody is putting into this thread. I am happy for it and try to implement it to my using. I am reading and studying BigE´s proposals to TMS. I am very open and try to figure it out. Nevertheless, I have some issues with understanding of trade time porposals. As he wrote, that he was trading first three hours of USA session... In that time he was going to sleep. Maybe I misunderstood something. Could you please advice? See enclosed picture. {quote} Best regards, Tomas {image}

Hallo,

The OP's local time is PDT/PST and his broker he used back then was FXDD .
FXDD server would print a new H4 candle every 4 hours and that happens is at his local time 10PM, 2AM, 6AM,....

Note the time difference between New York (EDT/EST) and his local time PDT/PST is 3 hours.

Since you are based in Germany and if you want to trade once every 4-hours, you must check your broker server time and know at the actual time (your local time) the server to print a new H4 bar/candle.

What is your broker server time? You then align your own trading time with your broker.

Besides trading H4, you can also trade the D1 and you can trade once a days only and at any hour of the day you choose.

If your broker offer MT5, you have other options to trade every 6,8,12 hours.

Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,432
  • May 1, 2019 4:49pm May 1, 2019 4:49pm
Quoting ladharimoham
I closed it minutes before the disaster xD ... {image} {image}

you got out at the right time before the TDI green line hook back....
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,433
  • May 1, 2019 4:59pm May 1, 2019 4:59pm
Quoting hikaru259
{quote} Thank Emmanuel, I love it so much, I'm taking my time to build money management strategy. Beside mental psychology, money management (positioning and exit/cutloss & let's profit run plan) will be my core. TMS is only an entry and exit strategy, it can not be my winning edge. TMS will help me to enter the trade but to be able to manage it to become a wining trade, i need more. I know it when seeing the statistic of April 2019. Numbers say it all. And again, thank for your help. I appreciate your knowledge. {image}

Hi hikaru,

Take your time to develop your own winning system that fits you. I may take 2 to 3 years because you need to forward tests and fine tune the trading rules and trading tasks. The TMS 5-Method is the core trading methodology and that is only 5 % of any trading system. The rest of 95% is your Money Management and the Mental strategies. Your biggest challenge would be in the Mental Strategy part which took me the most number of years.

Just to inspire you to work even harder from now onward, my trade results for 2019 Jan to April closing this week. I am in my Year_02 of my 3-years business plan 2018-2020.

CONSISTENCY is key to developing your WINNING EDGE.

You must have the DISCIPLINE in you as the trader to achieve and maintain your trading CONSISTENCY.
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,434
  • May 1, 2019 5:12pm May 1, 2019 5:12pm
Quoting ladharimoham
{quote} Thank you emmanuel for the encouragement, im trying to learn this system for perfectness and setting an objective of 70% to 80% of success trades in long term. here is some of my analysis for now, your comments will be appreciated very much. 1-i didnt enter the gbpcad trade because of the strong resistance there. 2-i didnt enter the gpbusd because of overbought. 3-i didnt enter USDCAD because the daily do not confirm it. 4-i took the euraud, everything is fine except the resistance, i took the risk. 5-a perfect one on the USDCHF....

Hi,

that 70% to 80% is difficult to achieve and maintain when you are trading Single Entry / Single Exit.
a CONSISTENT win rate between 45% to 55% for a start would boost your confidence and you work on positive EXPECTANCY and will be profitable long term. When you cut-loss, you lose only 1R but when you win, you want to win many times xR.

To improve the win rate to 60-65% is a money management entry and exit strategy to make your money work harder for you, how to scale-in and scale-out trades in trending market type conditions.

Have your financial goal in mind and trade your way to financial freedom.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,435
  • May 1, 2019 5:19pm May 1, 2019 5:19pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} This is a good example where taking a bigger view from your higher time frame chart, H1 here, could help you decide if you really want to deal with finding setups. Look only to the left before your trade. There are equal highs but higher lows, clearly showing a consolidation. Also, look at the price action right after those highs are put in. Notice the large bear candles. This is a good sign that these are likely larger sell orders that commercial traders had unfilled from earlier attempts to sell at this level, plus some retail traders...

Well the OP said many times, he look for trade setup that can run 3 to 8 candles. Post#647

If trading the H4 candles, a week has 29 H4 candles, if every swing it 3 to 8 candle, then we can trade wide ranging market condition during the week when the market can swing high and swing low.

But when the market is strong trending, then the swings can run 15 to 20 candles in one week. This is when we must take advantage of and make more money.

As active traders, we must learn and follow the changing market conditions and adapt our trading habits.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,436
  • May 1, 2019 5:27pm May 1, 2019 5:27pm
Quoting Ballistical
{quote} I caught some of it on H1 but I left a lot on the table. I exited after a Double Top formed and price pulled back.... as it happened, price was just retracing and it then continued to rise during NY but I wasn't at my laptop to monitor my charts during these hours anyway. In hindsight all the signs of a big move were there. We saw a fairly tight range yesterday, even for a Monday. Also, often on this pair, when price makes a clean break of the 200 EMA during a period of high volume, it can create some big moves. I expect price could hover...
Hi Ballistical,

very good trade

I love the 200EMA and 800EMA the way many traders use them and look at the price action.

The retracement Fib 23% and 38% was also something another trader used to talk about many years ago. He was a very disciplined trader during Big E time.

Good to see you post again and help others understand better what Keep It Simple trading is about.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,437
  • Edited 8:47pm May 1, 2019 8:34pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting tbu84
Hello Everybody, Firstly let me thank you for so big effort everybody is putting into this thread. I am happy for it and try to implement it to my using. I am reading and studying BigE´s proposals to TMS. I am very open and try to figure it out. Nevertheless, I have some issues with understanding of trade time porposals. As he wrote, that he was trading first three hours of USA session... In that time he was going to sleep. Maybe I misunderstood something. Could you please advice? See enclosed picture. {quote} Best regards, Tomas {image}
The market does not adhere to trading hours, (BigE's, your's, mine, their's, our's), there are to many factors that make price do what it does.
- Rather find the trading time that suite you the best.
- Pick the currency's you prefer' study them, take note when they move up and down a lot and try to trade during those times.
Google search will give better answer's.
- Follow TDI crossover on the time-frame of your choice and cherry pick the crossover's.
The best of all: Don't fret over the ones you missed, catch the next one that comes along.
  • #95,438
  • May 1, 2019 9:47pm May 1, 2019 9:47pm
Quoting tbu84
Hello Everybody, Firstly let me thank you for so big effort everybody is putting into this thread. I am happy for it and try to implement it to my using. I am reading and studying BigE´s proposals to TMS. I am very open and try to figure it out. Nevertheless, I have some issues with understanding of trade time porposals. As he wrote, that he was trading first three hours of USA session... In that time he was going to sleep. Maybe I misunderstood something. Could you please advice? See enclosed picture. {quote} Best regards, Tomas {image}

Moin moin,

It's your local time Berlin 7AM soon in 18 minutes and that is also Big E local time 10PM PDT.

Learn to trade the 8 pairs used to trade back in 2008 to 2011.

I see potential reversal H4 trades when this current H4 closes in few minutes.

Must wait till the H4 candle close and a new H4 candle open. Do Not refresh your chart when you use the TDI red Green version in Post#25.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMS Monitor May 02 pre-10PM 02-05-2019 12-43-34.png Size: 47 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,439
  • May 1, 2019 10:17pm May 1, 2019 10:17pm
Quoting tbu84
Hello Everybody, Firstly let me thank you for so big effort everybody is putting into this thread. I am happy for it and try to implement it to my using. I am reading and studying BigE´s proposals to TMS. I am very open and try to figure it out. Nevertheless, I have some issues with understanding of trade time porposals. As he wrote, that he was trading first three hours of USA session... In that time he was going to sleep. Maybe I misunderstood something. Could you please advice? See enclosed picture. {quote} Best regards, Tomas {image}
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Moin moin, It's your local time Berlin 7AM soon in 18 minutes and that is also Big E local time 10PM PDT. Learn to trade the 8 pairs used to trade back in 2008 to 2011. I see potential reversal H4 trades when this current H4 closes in few minutes. Must wait till the H4 candle close and a new H4 candle open. Do Not refresh your chart when you use the TDI red Green version in Post#25. {image}

Hallo Tomas,

we waited for the PDT 10PM candle and there was no trade. I did not see any reversal price action candle with strong momentum with a good RSI Price Line angle.

Now we wait until your local time Berlin 11AM and that would be PDT 2AM , another of Big E H4 candle time.

I am looking at the 4 JPY pairs.

Check your FF event calendar, we have a few PMI data and also GBP news/data events.

Stay tuned!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,440
  • May 1, 2019 10:36pm May 1, 2019 10:36pm
AUDJPY May 02 H4 example,

seeing the H-L, LH-LL price action, the higher probability is to look for sell trade setups later.

we need to see a bearish reversal candle with both Stoch and TDI signals.

the previous week's swing low is support and if that can be broken, we shall see.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY Week 18 May 02 H4 02-05-2019 13-29-44.png Size: 61 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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