Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 88 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #1,741
  • Apr 26, 2019 11:32am Apr 26, 2019 11:32am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 55 26 AVRIL 2019.png Size: 1.0 MB
  • #1,742
  • Apr 27, 2019 12:11pm Apr 27, 2019 12:11pm
Hi Parisboy,

So if you could share why you use a fixed 16 periods back for all 3 envelopes or perhaps lead me to the post where you describe this, that would be a good starting point. I use envelopes for a part of my trading. Pitchfork is good to help re-imagine the lines if angle of application is correct.

Kind Regards,
Paul
  • #1,743
  • Edited 2:59pm Apr 27, 2019 1:54pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting swd
Hi Parisboy, So if you could share why you use a fixed 16 periods back for all 3 envelopes or perhaps lead me to the post where you describe this, that would be a good starting point. I use envelopes for a part of my trading. Pitchfork is good to help re-imagine the lines if angle of application is correct. Kind Regards, Paul
Paul you will see the difference between both solutions in post 62

post 21, 25, 42,43,44 are also of interest and also the discussion with medici page 4 and 5

but it is better to read and re-read the beginning of the thread where most is explained in detail and where the link between Gann and Hurst is made and justified

Regards
  • #1,744
  • Apr 27, 2019 2:01pm Apr 27, 2019 2:01pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Paul you will see the difference betwween both solutions in post 62 post 21, 25, 42,43,44 are also of interest and also the discusiion with medici page 4 and 5 but it is better to read and re-read the beginning of the thread where most is explained in detail and where the link between Gann and Hurst is made and justified Regards
Yes thank you, found it all and reading, wet Saturday evening here in England, so something to do. Alot of what you have here already fits my understanding which is useful.

Kind Regards,
Simon Dexter
  • #1,745
  • Apr 29, 2019 2:51am Apr 29, 2019 2:51am
I will post here some exchanges I had recently on this thread :

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...911239&page=12

building "fractalized" Envelopes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD TMA Pressure Zone - H4 level example.png Size: 246 KB
  • #1,746
  • Apr 29, 2019 2:56am Apr 29, 2019 2:56am
comparing 2 similar charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD TMA Pressure Zone - M15 level example.png Size: 154 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD 23 27 AVRIL 2019.png Size: 4.1 MB
  • #1,747
  • Apr 29, 2019 2:59am Apr 29, 2019 2:59am
from "swd" : Your envelopes are not shifted back by half the period of each envelope, making them centred?

Regards,
Paul

Good remark Paul : it means that you have not studied the chart superficially.

a) theoretically Centered Moving Averages should have their end point placed by construction 1/2 (half) of their period back in the past

b) as I use CMA 256 (brown), 128 (ocre) and 32 (blue) teir respective end points should be placed 128, 64 and 16 points back the last available price

c) in practice I use the 3 Envelopes with only 16 points back for the 3 Envelopes so that they end at the same point

practically it is always a good compromise ( there are rational reasons why on which I could elaborate if necessary) between theory and practical needs for trading ( a little less for analysis)

"swd" answers : Thanks for the reply and clarification. I will read your thread I think, as no doubt the answers will be there and I don't want to clutter up someones else's thread. Always got me that once shifted back you have alot of "imagining" to do with regard to price and it's would-be intersections with the now shifted envelope.

Kind Regards,
Paul
1
  • #1,748
  • Apr 29, 2019 3:05am Apr 29, 2019 3:05am
from "robots4me" :

@parisboy -- looks similar to using TMA centered bands. Below is a screen shot using a TMA centered band indicator with @SwingMan's fractal indicator:

This combination gives a nice effect. However, be aware that the TMA centered band indicator is a "repainter" and shouldn't be used for signaling Entries and Exits.

The TMA centered band indicator is not mine and I don't recall where I downloaded it from. For anyone who is interested, here is the *.ex4:

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1556391365

commentary from "swd" :

Hi @robotsforme. The band is very badly named, not that it is your fault of course. In terms of envelope theory, it is not centred (i.e. there is no shift back of bars relating to half the period). Oddly the third dimension to the indicator is volatility through the use of the ATR which is shifted back by a fixed 10 bars. Anyway, just thought I would add that in in case others query it.

Kind Regards,
Paul

EDIT: Perhaps the data is retrospectively centred gradually with each new bar, hence why it repaints.... but the one george thread uses is not the repainting one and is not centred.
1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY triangular-centered-swingmans.png Size: 42 KB
  • #1,749
  • Apr 29, 2019 3:09am Apr 29, 2019 3:09am
Robots4me, IT IS very similar

with this system you can RATIONALLY identify and classify :

waves
cycles
harmonic patterns
M and W patterns

of the same ORDER, MAGNITUDE, DEGREE whatever you name it

all these figures above are partial views of the same serie of swings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ROBOT4 ME SERIE OF SWINGS.png Size: 2.8 MB
  • #1,750
  • Apr 29, 2019 3:10am Apr 29, 2019 3:10am
Various envelopes charts issued from Jim Hurst's "Profit Magic" (1971)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 102309750593.jpg Size: 93 KB
Attached Images
  • #1,751
  • Edited 4:01am Apr 29, 2019 3:16am | Edited 4:01am
from "swingman" :

Hi @parisboy,

only one question, because a long time ago I also dealt with the cycles :
did you also read the book by Brian Millard "Channels & Cycles: A Tribute to J.M. Hurst"
and the book by Al Gietzen "Advanced Cycle Trading - Cutting Edge Techniques for Profiting from Market Tops and Bottoms"?

There are some methods which I would like to have programmed at that time..

Hi Swingman

let us say that since 1998 I have read most printed books relative to Cycles, Waves and Gann.

I have read and own all books of Brian Millard

Unfortunately his book Channels and Cycles has very little to do with Hurst. Millard was mainly oriented on Channel Analysis. His books are great, very informative on various techniques : building an envelope template, isolating a cycle, masterig the pros and cons of centered moving averages.

But Millard has no trading methodology, he does not answer the 3 questions :

- when to enter
- when to exit
- where to position the Stop Loss

All his books are good and IMHO a must to read if you want to master Channel Analysis and Centered Moving Averages . It is necessary but not enough.

One of his best book is IMHO Profitable Charting Techniques

I have also read and have in my library the book from Al Gietzen but do not remember very specific methods .

Have you some in mind ? same question for Millard

it seems we have some common points !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Brian Millard Cycles a tribute to J.M. Hurst.jpg Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Brian Millard Profitable Charting Techniques.jpg Size: 40 KB
  • #1,752
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:03am Apr 29, 2019 4:03am
The key information IMHO given by the Channels is their Amplitude : it gives a very good approximation of where Price Action can go.

Not always 100 % perfect , "robust, but not bad" told us Jim Hurst
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: KEY INFORMATIONS THE CHANNELS AMPLITUDE.png Size: 2.7 MB
  • #1,753
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:05am Apr 29, 2019 4:05am
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  • #1,754
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:06am Apr 29, 2019 4:06am
Since the beginning I rate the Envelopes methodology as a "good enough trading methodology" - "good enough" is for me the equivalent of "robust, but not bad" defined by Jim Hurst !

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ASCENDING VTL.png Size: 1.3 MB
  • #1,755
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:09am Apr 29, 2019 4:09am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 1 MONTH 28 AVRIL 2019.png Size: 4.1 MB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY triangular-centered-swingmans.png Size: 42 KB


robots4me

you write

a) but I no longer attribute new price movements as being caused by previous price movements.

new price movements are not caused by previous price movements but are related with

b) At this point I'm not yet worried about Entry and Exit signals

Entry and Exit signals are key informations when you trade

c) Once we have confidence these TOPS and BOTTOMS are good enough

IMHO TOPS and BOTTOMS are not of the same nature, order, degree whatever you name it

The Envelope Triad system helps you to rationally classify and hierachize these Tops and Bottoms

Then you can generate patterns, waves, cycles, harmonic patterns, M and W patterns etc of the same nature.

This will clarify your understanding of Price Action , precise your Analysis and your Forecasts
  • #1,756
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:13am Apr 29, 2019 4:13am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY TOP T3 LOW B3 1 MONTH 28 AVRIL 2019.png Size: 4.2 MB
  • #1,757
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:15am Apr 29, 2019 4:15am
The real division by 8 of the GBPJPY price range

Price Range :

High 148,600
Low 143,800

Range 4,800 - 1 Octave = 4,800 / 8 = 0,600
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DIVISION BY 8 OF GBPJPY 1 MONTH 28 AVRIL 2019.png Size: 4.8 MB
  • #1,758
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:25am Apr 29, 2019 4:25am
Hi
I have seen some of your messages on another thread about envelopes.
The fist simple question I have is:
Does envelopes repaint?
I tested in the past different TMAs on same charts. The problem was that they were repainting so good on past data but useless on current data.
Thanks
  • #1,759
  • Edited 5:20am Apr 29, 2019 4:58am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting Merka
Hi I have seen some of your messages on another thread about envelopes. The fist simple question I have is: Does envelopes repaint? I tested in the past different TMAs on same charts. The problem was that they were repainting so good on past data but useless on current data. Thanks
Hi Merka thank you for your interest

Envelopes "repaint" only if you tell them to "repaint", more precisely if you in whatever way order them to calculate a projection (whatever the result of this projection is) for the missing part corresponding to the lag.

I use Centered Moving Averages 256 TU, 128 TU, 32 TU the the missing part is 128 TU, 64 TU, 16 TU = half of their period

I can use simultaneously TWO charts

one with the theoretical missing part
one where all 3 Enveloppes are calculated with a lag of 16 TU the lag of the Envelope 32 TU (blue)

I will post 2 charts so that you can see the difference
  • #1,760
  • Apr 29, 2019 5:18am Apr 29, 2019 5:18am
Quoting Merka
Hi I have seen some of your messages on another thread about envelopes. The fist simple question I have is: Does envelopes repaint? I tested in the past different TMAs on same charts. The problem was that they were repainting so good on past data but useless on current data. Thanks
Hereunder 2 charts

- the first where ALL 4 Envelopes are lagging by 16 TU - 1/2 period of the Centered Moving Average 32 TU

- the second where all 4 Envelopes are conformed to the normal / theortical building of Envelopes based on Centered Moving Averages ending at half of their period before the last price data point

imho I call this Triad Envelope System : SUPERB

- Simple
- Useful
- Practical
- Envelopes
- Reliable
- Beautiful
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ENVELOPES EURUSD WITH ALL ENVELOPES LAGGING BY 16 TU.png Size: 3.6 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: ENVELOPES EURUSD WITH ALL ENVELOPES LAGGING BY HALF THEIR PERIOD.png Size: 4.1 MB
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