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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #621
  • Mar 31, 2019 3:48pm Mar 31, 2019 3:48pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is operating in a descending channel (red) traceable to 2009. However, it has been in an ambivalent phase so far this year. After been stuck in a sideways operation since January 2019, the EURUSD market disposed southwards in March, printing a bearish continuation candlestick on the monthly time frame. Nevertheless, the lower shadow on the candlestick indicates that we may see bulls make some attempt to take price action northwards, much likely in the early part of April.

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Price action is operating in a descending wedge (blue) on the weekly time frame. Last week, the market printed a bearish candlestick, which was a few pips shy of the wedge support line. The horizontal support is around the 1.11300 area, which is less than 100 pips from present location of price action. Therefore, we may see reduced bearish momentum until either after a northward pullback to an area of value or a breakdown of the 1.11300 area on at least a daily closing basis. Nevertheless, elementary wave analysis and other technicals favour the bears on a medium-term basis.

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The daily time frame shows a market in a corrective phase of an impulsive downward trend. This operation is taking place in a descending wedge (blue). Currently, price action is located around a minor horizontal support, the 1.12330 area; and barriers to a southward movement include the wedge support (less than 30 pips away) and a major horizontal support at the 1.11300 area. Thus, bears may find it difficult to gain momentum for a southward continuation.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #622
  • Apr 7, 2019 3:02pm Apr 7, 2019 3:02pm
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

Like most of the markets, the EURAUD has been sideways for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is presently located around a support that has held since early January 2019. Last week, a doji-like candlestick was printed on the weekly time frame at the 1.57430 support area. This indicates a directional pause in the market.

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On the daily time frame, the market is still in consolidation. The wicky candlesticks printed in the past few days indicate that we may still expect further sideways, including a brief northward move – not decisive, in the early part of this week.

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On the H4 time frame, price action has moved southwards of a large ascending channel (blue) to within a narrower but sharper descending channel (red). This indicates an increase in a bearish disposition in the market. Presently, market operation is just a few pips below the channel resistance and a bearish candlestick was printed in the last session on Friday. Technically the market is still ambivalent but has a bearish tinge to it. It is also operating in a support area and so we need to watch how price action handles the area, particularly on a daily closing basis – perhaps after Monday. Besides, there is no clear-cut condition for a feasible reward-to-risk ratio now.

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I will step aside in the early part of this week and await directional clarity.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #623
  • Apr 7, 2019 3:12pm Apr 7, 2019 3:12pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market has been on the positive side for quite a while. On the monthly time frame, an ascending trendline traceable to 2013 is still intact. Since April 2018, the market has been trading above an inner ascending trendline (blue). The technicals on the monthly time frame are still in favour of a positive tone in the USDCAD market.

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On the weekly time frame, the market is operating in an ascending channel (blue) linked with the inner ascending line seen on the monthly time frame. However, the past five weeks have seen price action operate in a consolidating pennant but with bulls technically favoured. The immediate horizontal resistance is around the 1.34820 area. Should bulls manage to scale that area, they are likely to target the 1.36480 handle.

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On the daily time frame, a ‘W’ shape pattern was formed and thereafter price action rejected a Tom Demark-like trendline (magenta). We are likely to see price action take the USDCAD market further northward, respecting a recently formed ascending trendline (black). An outer ascending trendline (dark violet) traceable to September 2018 is still in play.

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I am bullish USDCAD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #624
  • Apr 7, 2019 3:49pm Apr 7, 2019 3:49pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish pinbar formed three weeks ago on the weekly time frame did not have much follow through price action. Presently, the market is operating near the horizontal support in the 1.11300 area and we may expect further southward move but not much of a momentum. A southward momentum is likely to materialize only after price action has broken down the 1.11300 area or upon a northward retracement to an area of value – a possible candidate being the 1.13350/1.13970 zone, which adjoins a broken-down horizontal resistance on the weekly time frame.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending triangle (blue) and has rejected the triangle support thrice. The most recent bearish candlesticks have been particularly weak, indicating lack of bearish momentum. Also, the sessions on Wednesday through Friday last week printed a double inside candlestick-pattern; another indication of a pause in momentum. We may have to await further clarity of price action in the early part of this week before having confidence in any directional bias.

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On the H4 time frame, the technical pattern supports a bearish continuation, after another northward pullback. Price action has been forming and breaking down a series of ascending channels. Four such channels (red) had been broken down and we may expect the fifth (black), where price action is currently operating, to break down – giving the bearish context on the higher time frames. This is likely to come after a retest of the most recent channel resistance.

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I am bearish EURUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #625
  • Apr 7, 2019 3:57pm Apr 7, 2019 3:57pm
Although I am bearish EURUSD, I will step aside for now and await a feasible bearish setup upon a northward retracement to an area of value or the breakdown of the 1.11300 area on a daily closing basis.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The bearish pinbar formed three weeks ago on the weekly time frame did not have much follow through price action. Presently, the market is operating near the horizontal support in the 1.11300 area and we may expect further southward move but not much of a momentum. A southward momentum is likely to materialize only after price action has broken down the 1.11300 area or upon a northward retracement to an area of value – a possible candidate being the 1.13350/1.13970 zone, which adjoins a broken-down horizontal resistance...
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  • #626
  • Apr 14, 2019 3:12pm Apr 14, 2019 3:12pm
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURAUD has been on a positive tone for quite a while but the momentum has been erratic as price action operates in an ascending channel (blue) on the weekly time frame. Recent price action is located around the channel support while the past two weeks have witnessed the printing of two indecision candlesticks. Generally, the market has been neutral or ambivalent, and we may not see much directional momentum in the early part of this week or until price action breaks down the channel support.

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On the daily time frame, price action has broken below a mini ascending channel (magenta). But the order flow context is not in favour of either buyers or sellers, thus producing a diminished bearish momentum. The market printed a bearish pinbar on Friday around a minor horizontal resistance, but the likely target of any bearish continuation is less than 100 pips southward, around the 1.56350 area.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a horizontal channel (chocolate) spanning 1.58495 and 1.57120, with the most recently printed candlestick located just about 35 pips above the channel support. We may have to wait for further price action in the early part of this week to see how the market handles the channel support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #627
  • Apr 14, 2019 3:32pm Apr 14, 2019 3:32pm
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPAUD is operating in an ascending channel (blue) on the weekly time frame and presently with a bearish mood. A bearish move started four weeks ago from the horizontal resistance around 1.88425. However, the bearish pinbar printed two weeks ago had limited follow-through. From elementary wave analysis, the ascending channel (blue) is a correction of an impulsive downtrend.

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Price action on the daily time frame has broken below an ascending trendline (magenta) traceable to December 2018. Recent candlesticks have been bearish and the technicals are in sync. However, price action will likely retest a mini descending trendline (green) from recent highs, or the recently broken-down horizontal support around 1.83890, before we can have confidence in a bearish momentum.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (green) aligned with the mini descending trendline seen on the daily time frame. Presently, the market is respecting an inner descending trendline (chocolate) within the channel, indicating an increase in bearish momentum. However, as price action is presently located at a minor horizontal support, we may see some sideways or a pullback before a bearish continuation.

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I am bearish GBPAUD.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #628
  • Apr 14, 2019 3:38pm Apr 14, 2019 3:38pm
I hold a bearish technical outlook on the EURAUD. However, I will wait for either a breakdown of the 1.57120 area on a daily closing basis or a northward pullback to the 1.58495 area followed by a role flip.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook The EURAUD has been on a positive tone for quite a while but the momentum has been erratic as price action operates in an ascending channel (blue) on the weekly time frame. Recent price action is located around the channel support while the past two weeks have witnessed the printing of two indecision candlesticks. Generally, the market has been neutral or ambivalent, and we may not see much directional momentum in the early part of this week or until price action breaks down the channel support. {image} On the daily...
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  • #629
  • Apr 14, 2019 3:45pm Apr 14, 2019 3:45pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD continues to operate sideways in a descending wedge (blue) on the weekly time frame and it lacks directional momentum.

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On the daily time frame, the short-term technical mood favours bulls but we may not expect much northward momentum unless the market produces another candlestick that breaks above the monthly pivot (1.12798) on a daily closing basis. Nevertheless, the 1.14320 area appears to be a barrier for any bullish ambition.

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On the H4 time frame, price action broke above a minor resistance around 1.12980 during last Friday sessions but retested it at the penultimate session with a bearish candlestick. The last session on Friday produced an indecision candlestick around the minor resistance. This is just 16 pips above the monthly pivot (1.12798), an area which we may see price action retest. A break above the monthly pivot, or the minor horizontal resistance of 1.12980, is likely to result in a bullish continuation, whereas a southward rejection is likely to see bears pursue a southward turnaround. We should also note the minor ascending trendline (chocolate) which is presently in play as support.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #630
  • Apr 21, 2019 3:15pm Apr 21, 2019 3:15pm
AUDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The bullish move seen on the weekly time frame in the AUDJPY market since the beginning of April 2019 declined last week with the printing of an indecision candlestick, an inside candlestick to the bullish candlestick printed two weeks ago. Price action is presently located around a horizontal resistance and we may have to wait for clarity of price action this week. However, a descending trendline (blue) traceable to November 2014 has been acting as a diagonal resistance for quite a while and is still in play; apparently, the longer-term technical bias favours bears.

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Until last week when price action went sideways, the technicals on the daily time frame was bullish. Should bulls follow-through on the indecision candlestick printed on Friday, it would likely result in maintenance of the sideways. Any bullish drive is likely to be hindered by the horizontal resistance around the 81.090 area. However, should bulls clear that area, the 82.010 area is a more significant horizontal resistance. Alternatively, we may see a retracement to a value area, perhaps breaking below the ascending trendline (magenta) from recent lows. Besides, an outer ascending trendline (red) traceable to January 2019 may be the next significant diagonal support should the inner ascending trendline (magenta) be breached southwards. But a breakdown of the 78.600 area, representing the monthly pivot, on a daily closing basis is likely to lead to a strong bearish continuation.

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The H4 time frame shows price action struggling for a bullish operation as a horizontal resistance in the 80.500 area is being tackled. Looking left, it is apparent that the southward move is potentially the impulsive trend and we are in a corrective phase at the moment. The ‘wicky’ tops on the recently formed candlesticks indicate a weakness of bullish momentum.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #631
  • Apr 21, 2019 3:28pm Apr 21, 2019 3:28pm
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the EURAUD market printed three indecision candlesticks around the 1.57180 area that has held as horizontal support for several weeks. The candlestick printed last week was at the intersection of the horizontal support and the support trendline of an ascending channel (blue) traceable to 2017. A break below this area is likely to expose the 1.53680 handle. Alternatively, should bulls seize the initiative, we may see a further move into the ascending channel (blue).

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Price action on the daily time frame has been sideways around the horizontal support in the 1.57180 area although the technicals slightly favour bears. But, as the market is operating in an ascending channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame, a bearish momentum is not likely to materialize until the breakdown of the channel support on a daily closing basis.

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The market on the H4 time has been grinding slowly southwards within a descending channel (red). Recently price action settled for a sideways around a significant horizontal support, the 1.57180 area. This area is also near the support trendline of an ascending channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. A breakdown of the area followed by a retest for a role flip is likely to lead to a bearish momentum, whereas a bullish retracement is likely to see a retest of an area of value (e.g. the 1.58070 area) before a southward turn around. Thus, we may have to wait for clarity of price action in the early part of this week before taking a directional stance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #632
  • Apr 21, 2019 3:33pm Apr 21, 2019 3:33pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market on the weekly time frame is operating within a wedge (red). Presently, price action is located around the monthly pivot in confluence with a horizontal support, the 1.30750 area. The area is experiencing some sideways operation which began three weeks ago and a bearish breakdown of the area is likely to expose the next horizontal support around 1.27260. Any bullish move is likely to find some difficulty around the wedge resistance or the 1.32920 area.

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The ‘wicky tops’ on the recent candlesticks printed on the daily time frame points to an exhaustion of bullish momentum. A descending triangle (blue) is visible on the daily time frame and recent price action is operating around the triangle. The technicals are in favour of bears but we may have to wait for a significant break below the triangle base before we can expect a bearish momentum. The 1.27960 area is technically a good target for any bearish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Apr._21,_2019_D1.png Size: 51 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #633
  • Apr 21, 2019 3:44pm Apr 21, 2019 3:44pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.13360/1.11920 zone has been difficult for bears to break down in the EURUSD market. The area has held as a horizontal support since early August 2018. On the weekly time frame, price action has been ranging in the area since the first week in March 2019. Technically, the larger picture is bearish, but the market mood is ambivalent. Only a break of price action below the 1.11055 area will embolden bears to drive the market further southward.

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Price action on the daily time frame has formed a large wedge from the ascending trendline (dark violet) traceable to December 2016 and an external descending trendline (red) traceable to March 2018. Presently, price action has shifted southwards of the descending trendline to respect an inner descending trendline (blue), leaving a channel of diagonal resistance between the two trendlines. This is apparently favorable to bears but it is not likely that bears can drive a southward momentum until the wedge support is broken down on a daily closing basis. Any bullish operational mode is likely to be temporary in nature.

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From the H4 time frame, it is apparent that the impulsive trend is downwards but the market is presently experiencing a correction.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #634
  • Apr 23, 2019 9:27pm Apr 23, 2019 9:27pm
It may not be necessary to get the monthly viewpoint in all cases but when such a viewpoint is likely to make the analysis more potent or clarify certain aspects of price action which may not be captured effectively on the weekly time frame, the outlook from the monthly time frame will be incorporated.
  • #635
  • Apr 24, 2019 6:07am Apr 24, 2019 6:07am
Very correct. Good to include the monthly at the beginning of each month.

KP

Quoting andylaudj
It may not be necessary to get the monthly viewpoint in all cases but when such a viewpoint is likely to make the analysis more potent or clarify certain aspects of price action which may not be captured effectively on the weekly time frame, the outlook from the monthly time frame will be incorporated.
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  • #636
  • Apr 28, 2019 3:28pm Apr 28, 2019 3:28pm
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURNZD market has formed a descending triangle (blue) on the weekly time frame. Last week, a bearish pinbar was printed around the 1.68080 horizontal resistance area in confluence with the triangle resistance trendline

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On the H4 time frame, price action has breached southward an ascending trendline (magenta) traceable to March 26, 2019. Last week Friday, bulls attempted to take price further northward, but their effort lacked momentum. Should bulls succeed in taking price action further northward, we may see them hit a barrier around the 1.67900 area. An upward move that retests the broken down trendline (magenta) may result in a role flip of the trendline for a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #637
  • Apr 28, 2019 3:40pm Apr 28, 2019 3:40pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD continues its positive tone but with a sluggish momentum. On the weekly time frame, an outer ascending trendline traceable to August 2017 (red) has given way to an inner one (blue) which formed an ascending channel (blue) within which price action is operating. The technicals favour further northward move but the 1.37190 area is a horizontal resistance.

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The daily time frame shows that price action is presently operating around the 1.34930/50 resistance zone and bears are challenging them for market influence. The technicals still favour bulls and any bearish move is likely to be corrective. The 1.35710 area is the next horizontal resistance.

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The order flow context on the H4 time frame is presently more influenced by bulls. The 1.34475 area has been a resistance zone for quite a while and was breached last week Thursday. Bears retested the area in the second and third sessions on Friday. Although bulls seized the initiative in the last 4H-session their effort was feeble, resulting in the printing of an inside bar. We may see a sideways in the area before any directional move. Should bulls seize the initiative, we may see a bullish drive in line with the technical outlook on the W1 and D1 time frames.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I am bullish USDCAD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #638
  • Apr 28, 2019 3:49pm Apr 28, 2019 3:49pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market continues to grind slowly southward within a descending channel (blue) on the weekly time frame. Presently, price action is located near a horizontal support but a more significant horizontal support – at the 1.10480 area, is about 80 pips southward.

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On the daily time frame, recent price action is predominantly sideways. The candlesticks printed last week Thursday and Friday indicated a lack of bearish momentum. We may see some bullish move in the early part of this week before a southward turnaround.

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The H4 time frame shows that bulls have lately been keenly contesting market influence with bears. The bullish pinbar printed in the second session last Friday may see bulls follow up with further move despite the bearish candlestick printed in the last session. At any rate, such a bullish move is likely to be temporary. But bears have to breach the horizontal support around the 1.10470 area before we can have confidence in a bearish drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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  • #639
  • May 5, 2019 3:21pm May 5, 2019 3:21pm
NZDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the NZDJPY market is operating in a descending channel (red) on the weekly time frame. It is presently located at a horizontal support, the 73.510 area. The area has remained firm as barrier to bearish breakdown since January 2019 despite attempt by bears in the last two weeks to breach it. We may expect some sideways of price action in the early part of this week. Should bears succeed to break down the area, the 72.820 area may be exposed. On the flip side, should bulls seize the initiative, we may see them target the horizontal resistance in the 75.150 area.

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A descending triangle pattern (blue) can be seen on the daily time frame, with recent price action operating at the base area around the 73.510 horizontal support; an area that has held as support for quite a while. Bears made a strong attempt to break down the area on Wednesday last week with a strong bearish candlestick but there was no follow-through on Thursday and Friday; both days seeing the market printing two doji-like candlesticks. An implication of the two doji-like candlesticks recently printed is that bulls are trying to give bears a good fight for market control. Should they succeed in their attempt, we may see them take price action to a value area, such as the 74.210/74.628 zone – which is a confluence of a horizontal resistance and the monthly pivot. We can expect a strong bearish response and determination to break down the 73.510 and, so, any northward move is temporary.

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The ‘low-wick’ candlesticks printed around the 73.510 area on the H4 time frame indicates a rejection of the area by the market and we may see some corrective pullback to an area of value, such as the broken down support around 74.620, an area which adjoins the monthly pivot. Thereafter, we may see a southward turnaround. I am bearish NZDJPY.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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  • #640
  • May 5, 2019 3:41pm May 5, 2019 3:41pm
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, since November 2018, the 0.66950/0.69220 zone has acted as a horizontal range/channel (magenta) for price action on the NZDUSD to operate within. That zone is still very much in tact despite several attempts by bears to break it down. The latest of such attempts, which happened in the last two weeks, were feeble; with price action printing two ambivalent candlesticks in the 0.66890 support area. We may even see bulls take price action back to within the horizontal channel if they manage a follow-up on the bullish pinbar printed two weeks ago. However, any bearish influence may see a move towards the 0.65250 horizontal support area.

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A wedge pattern (blue) has been formed by recent price action on the daily time frame. Presently, the order flow context favours a bullish move to retest the broken-down horizontal support around 0.66950.

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On the H4 time frame, the low wicks on the candlesticks printed around the wedge support trendline indicate attempts by bulls to resist a bearish breakdown of the wedge (blue) seen on the daily time frame. Recent price action is in favour of bulls as they have taken price action into within the wedge. We may see them retest the 0.66950 horizontal resistance or the wedge resistance trendline.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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