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Trading Made Simple

  • #95,041
  • Mar 30, 2019 5:27am Mar 30, 2019 5:27am
Quoting neosqualls
I tested EUR/USD, M15 & H1 with rules : - TDI M15 cross green angle between 12/2 or 4/6 - M15 stochastic going in TDI direction - TDI H1 green same angle as TDI M15 - H1 stochastic going in TDI direction Using only above rules it's not working, but on DE30, for the last three months it's working well. No attack here, i like your idea so wanted to try on forex pairs

This will not work long term. many people have tried all kinds of approaches the last 7 years after Big E died. None have posted positive results trading in live market conditions. Unless some0ne can post and show us that he has consistent profitable results for at least 36 months, then I can say the M15 and H1 TDI angle approach is a 'holy grail' method.

Instead, why don't you consider using H4 setup and then place entries in M15?
- First, wait for a H4 setup like what Big E has described in Post#261 and #Post#647.
- Then, on your M15 TMS chart, look for the price action pull back and then place your trades the same TMS setups.

I have done many different simulations during our system development and here is EU below for live data from Jan 01, 2019 to Mar 29, 2019.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H1 M15 Jan to Mar 2019.png Size: 57 KB


My conclusion is still the same:

We should not spend too much time on TDI and Stochastics,
We should spend more on Price Action and Support/Resistance.
And we must spend even more time on Money Management, Risk Management for entries and exits, When and How to Let Profits Run.
Eventually, you need to find your WINNING EDGE and with the right mental strategies, you will realize the TDI is not in the winning edge equation.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,042
  • Mar 30, 2019 5:40am Mar 30, 2019 5:40am
Quoting neosqualls
{quote} Hi Tekkies, I am not sure you get the same results on forex pairs, DE30 seems to have better reaction. no ?

You need to know what instrument ( stocks vs forex vs indices, etc. ) you are trading and apply your knowledge and experience how to trade.

If you swing trade DE30 looking at H4 or D1 for setups and place small trades using lower timeframe entries and use position sizing with average entry price,
the results can be very good and there will be days when you hit home runs using the Lotto model.

below putting DE30 through my strategy tester,

looks tempting but you need mental fitness to trade with averaging down and position sizing and to deal with floating drawdown/losses.
can you handle a cut-loss of $5k with a deposit of $10k?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DE30 H4 M15 Jan to Mar 2019.png Size: 58 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,043
  • Mar 30, 2019 5:45am Mar 30, 2019 5:45am
Anyone with other new ideas and you want me to put through strategy tester for you?

I have some free time on my computer tonight while I watch soccer.

Let me know.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,044
  • Mar 30, 2019 7:16am Mar 30, 2019 7:16am
@Emmanuel,Thank you.
  • #95,045
  • Mar 30, 2019 7:19am Mar 30, 2019 7:19am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Take note: - TDI M15 cross green angle between 12/2 or 4/6. - M15 stochastic going in TDI direction. - TDI H1 green same angle as TDI M15. Do not wait for TDI H1 green to cross red. Only the angle must confirm M15 TDI cross over - H1 stochastic going in TDI direction. You should be in profit at the end of the month (01/03/2019 to 29/03/2019) This hindsight trading show that the blue trend-lines are more and longer then the losing yellow trend-lines. {image} {image} Post some of your trades please. (both time-frame next two each other like...
Tekkies,

Thanks for the screenshot. Vertical lines on your M15 chart does not correspond to TDI cross, what is the point ?
  • #95,046
  • Mar 30, 2019 7:33am Mar 30, 2019 7:33am
Quoting neosqualls
{quote} Tekkies, Thanks for the screenshot. Vertical lines on your M15 chart does not correspond to TDI cross, what is the point ?

its all nonsense gimmick M15H1 V-lines .

the TDI repaints all history bars.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,047
  • Mar 30, 2019 7:35am Mar 30, 2019 7:35am
Quoting neosqualls
I tested EUR/USD, M15 & H1 with rules : - TDI M15 cross green angle between 12/2 or 4/6 - M15 stochastic going in TDI direction - TDI H1 green same angle as TDI M15 - H1 stochastic going in TDI direction Using only above rules it's not working, but on DE30, for the last three months it's working well. No attack here, i like your idea so wanted to try on forex pairs
Hi, this one took a bit longer.
Took the M15 chart posted and named it Tester.tpl
a Very crude back test. Weekend spread took a big bite out of profit, no break-even to limit loss, Sup/Res level to increase profit had a big effect on the test.
Trade like this every month with Post 94,406 advice put BigE's method with TDI crossover in a class of it's own.
Member's can post what they want, TDI used in this way is a winning indicator.
-----
Please post some of your losing trade's so that we can try and find way you had difficulty to achieve a account growth.
----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30032019Saterdag backtest 4.PNG Size: 28 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30032019Saterdag backtest 3.PNG Size: 59 KB
  • #95,048
  • Mar 30, 2019 7:37am Mar 30, 2019 7:37am
Emmanuel, thanks for the share of your knowledge, but you post too much and doesn't let any place for others here.
  • #95,049
  • Edited 8:36am Mar 30, 2019 7:54am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting neosqualls
{quote} Tekkies, Thanks for the screenshot. Vertical lines on your M15 chart does not correspond to TDI cross, what is the point ?
Have posted that it is hindsight. To do a thorough test will take all day.
Did you take in to account that:
- Every M15 crossover will not be a valid entry.
- That all four indicator must confirm each other.
Some examples:
- blou dots show why V-lines don't match TDI cross-over.
- a mistake blue line show that H1 confirm M15 TDI cross-over.
- how about a trailer stop at green line.
- can add break-even + profit (BE): Almost all yellow trend lines will be eradicated with a BE.
Back testing only show that a method has potential.
To many point's are not taken into consideration like: fear, greed, confusion, inability to apply Post#647
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30032019Saterdag backtest 5.PNG Size: 51 KB
  • #95,050
  • Mar 30, 2019 12:49pm Mar 30, 2019 12:49pm
Ok Tekkies, will have a closer look to it.
  • #95,051
  • Mar 30, 2019 6:19pm Mar 30, 2019 6:19pm
Quoting neosqualls
Emmanuel, thanks for the share of your knowledge, but you post too much and doesn't let any place for others here.

There is no limit to learning and acquiring knowledge. One needs to know when there is overload of information and must know when to stop on his own.

I always emphasize that member must read all the OP posts and follow his trading journey from a newbie to the time he stopped posting.

You either read & study all his 463 posts in this thread OR you can read & study EVERYTHING he posted. I read EVERYTHING because I do trading systems development and I wanted to learn the way he did his from 2008 till 2011. There is a wealth of knowledge and experience to learn from his system development.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Read ONLY Big E posts in FF.png Size: 422 KB


The OP's last post is a good reminder:
So many new traders... Do not think you can trade with us without reading the thread and taking notes. READ & STUDY.

Quoting eelfranz
So many new traders... Do not think you can trade with us without reading the thread and taking notes. READ & STUDY. Snarlyjack - Good to hear from you old friend. We have stood back to back in battle more than a few times. May your trades be blessed buddy. Come visit more often. Big E
Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,052
  • Mar 30, 2019 6:29pm Mar 30, 2019 6:29pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Hi, this one took a bit longer. Took the M15 chart posted and named it Tester.tpl a Very crude back test. Weekend spread took a big bite out of profit, no break-even to limit loss, Sup/Res level to increase profit had a big effect on the test. Trade like this every month with Post 94,406 advice put BigE's method with TDI crossover in a class of it's own. Member's can post what they want, TDI used in this way is a winning indicator. ----- Please post some of...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tekkies MT4 strategy tester 31-03-2019 06-32-21.png Size: 169 KB


So some0ne wants to take with $50K to Las Vegas... LOL.

You need to need realistic even when you run back-testing with your expert advisor.

Big E was a financial independent retired person, and he took only $10K to Las Vegas. ( Post#557) I don't see him as a gambler.
The money I put into my last trading account ($10,000) I don't even think about it. It's like the money you take to Las Vegas.


Quoting eelfranz
Klops... (503) I'm not looking for 15 pips profit... more like 150 ! The money I put into my last trading account ($10,000) I don't even think about it. It's like the money you take to Las Vegas. You hope to win but don't often... Your taking money for entertainment and relaxation... So I don't give it a second thought... It's entertainment money as I said... Besides It always grows larger... I REMEMBER THE DAYS WRINGING OUT MY HANDS FOR MY $500 ACCOUNT... THE SKIES FALLING ! Help, help, help. If I enter a trade lets say and I'm monitoring the trade...

My conclusion is still the same:
even when some0ne does back-testing, he must consider the Money Management, Risk Management for entries and exits,
....
We should not spend too much time on TDI and Stochastics,
We should spend more on Price Action and Support/Resistance.
And we must spend even more time on Money Management, Risk Management for entries and exits, When and How to Let Profits Run.
Eventually, you need to find your WINNING EDGE and with the right mental strategies, you will realize the TDI is not in the winning edge equation.
....
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,053
  • Mar 31, 2019 6:52am Mar 31, 2019 6:52am
@Tekkies, considering spread and money management i am not sure you could make money, but anyway you have found a way that pleased you so keep like that

@Emmanuel
I agree, after so many times watching charts, no matter the entry point, we are all looking for the best entry, but in reality it's just to prevent a bad money management.
  • #95,054
  • Mar 31, 2019 7:30am Mar 31, 2019 7:30am
Hi guys, Can anyone re-summarize the rule to enter trade? I see the initial post is very nice and clean set up but after 4k pages, the chart you are posting is too complicated for a new bie like me now?
Thanks in advance.
  • #95,055
  • Mar 31, 2019 7:45am Mar 31, 2019 7:45am
Quoting will.cyan259
Hi guys, Can anyone re-summarize the rule to enter trade? I see the initial post is very nice and clean set up but after 4k pages, the chart you are posting is too complicated for a new bie like me now? Thanks in advance.
Hi Will,

well, let me try:

just read these One, Two and Three

then you write your own summary and post it here. I'll try help you verify if you have understood the method.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,056
  • Mar 31, 2019 8:07am Mar 31, 2019 8:07am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Have posted that it is hindsight. To do a thorough test will take all day. Did you take in to account that: - Every M15 crossover will not be a valid entry. - That all four indicator must confirm each other. Some examples: - blou dots show why V-lines don't match TDI cross-over. - a mistake blue line show that H1 confirm M15 TDI cross-over. - how about a trailer stop at green line. - can add break-even + profit (BE): Almost all yellow trend lines will be eradicated with a BE. Back testing only show that a method has potential. To many point's...

Quoting neosqualls
Ok Tekkies, will have a closer look to it.
No need for those complicated M15 V-lines and H1 V-lines on two charts.

When you trade M15, just use only M15 chart for all trade entry and exit decisions.

Read Big E Post#731 trading M15 chart timeframe
Quoting eelfranz
Training Chart.... Entries The timeframe is 15min... I think there ar 21 trades here...all winners (?)... Well if you were trading on a 15min and not paying close attention you would probably have a few losses... However if this was a 1hr/4hr chart even 1 candle produces many pips and gives you time to get out if necessary... with profit in hand... see the difference? Note the blue boxes on the chart... burn that into your mind... these are crap areas to enter any trade... when you see this go to another pair to find a...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E training chart M15 ENTRIES.png Size: 124 KB


Read Big E Post#746 Exits on M15 chart timeframe
Quoting eelfranz
Speaking of wall hangers... here is a training chart... same as the other except it's TDI Exits only... {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E training chart M15 EXITS.png Size: 127 KB


Then read Big E Post#2617, strip all those things he mentioned from you charts,

Quoting eelfranz
Alright all you party animals trying to recover from last night... or longer... Last couple of pages has covered many different topics... well, touched base anyway.... 2scoops... on post 2594... 2scoops asked me a long time ago what would be the most beneficial to learning this method for higher success... The answer was simple... study old charts for set ups... now strip down everything on that chart at that point... trends, angles, S/R levels, News times, Stoch angle within the 20-80 lines..etc. Burn it into your memory... I spent 2...
.....
now strip down everything on that chart at that point... trends, angles, S/R levels, News times, Stoch angle within the 20-80 lines..etc. Burn it into your memory... I spent 2 years doing that.... so what does that mean?

It takes me 15 seconds to strip a chart down to nothing including the TDI & Stoch's. Taking clean trades is a breeze for me... why?
.....
Then read Post#8703, take the hint from that post.
Take trades only when the candles are medium size and bigger. This apply to all chart timeframe you trade.

More back-testing done today:

Trading M15 following Big E's post above.
Apply Money Management to Position Size,
use ''Set and Forget" with fixed SL and TP
Risk:Reward 1: 1.5
Re-entry next bar/candle after stopped.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DE30 M15 Jan01-Mar 29 2019.png Size: 74 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,057
  • Mar 31, 2019 9:26am Mar 31, 2019 9:26am
Quoting heispark
{quote} As I said earlier, visual back testing has a limitation. Real time view and hind sight view look different.
Attached Image
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #95,058
  • Mar 31, 2019 6:19pm Mar 31, 2019 6:19pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} {image}


There is a flaw in this TMS thread is that the OP used historical charts to explain entries and exits while he knew that the TDI version repaints the bars in history. The only way for people to learn is perform forward test in live market conditions.

<>
LIMITATIONS OF BACKTESTING

One of the primary downsides of back testing is that it can lure the trader into overconfidence about a system based on how it performed in the past. There is always a real danger of curve fitting and data mining to find a perfect system that worked with a set of past market conditions in the past but will never occur again in the future.

The market is a complex, adaptive system that never shows traders the same face twice. Even when traders perform a backtest rigorously and with full knowledge of the limits of its ability to forecast into the future, they will commonly see a large discrepancy between backtest results and actual results from live trading.

There are several potential causes for this discrepancy. Sometimes, traders will backtest a system in isolation and not as part of a full portfolio of strategies. Often back tests may use unrealistic values for slippage and commissions. Many times the backtest will not take into account the human dimension of executing a set of trading rules. Experience shows that this is one of the most overlooked aspects in back testing. Backtesting specifically, and any forecasting method in general, has limits and that’s perhaps the biggest challenge for traders to understand. Some traders place so much reliance on their back testing that the evidence of divergent actual results will not convince them that they missed something important. They might persist in trading a system that will simply not work in the real world. (Attribute this to the overconfidence bias combined with the need to be right.)

Professional engineers and doctors are especially prone to this common problem because of their ingrained belief systems from their professions. Those professions in particular place a premium on being right to be successful, yet in the trading profession, the ability to act with incomplete knowledge and a willingness to be wrong often leads to the best results. While back testing offers many powerful advantages, the professional trader concurrently recognizes the limits of its usefulness.
The professional trader should take back testing results into consideration as a way to select a system to prototype with real money, in real markets with the human factors fully engaged to see what the real world results look like before committing to full production system risk.

<>

*** New York is still Sunday Mar 20, 2019. New month starts in 4H 50M.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,059
  • Mar 31, 2019 6:36pm Mar 31, 2019 6:36pm
Weekend Price Gap DE30

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DE30 Mar 30 NY Open 01-04-2019 07-28-47.png Size: 285 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #95,060
  • Mar 31, 2019 10:52pm Mar 31, 2019 10:52pm
Quoting neosqualls
@Tekkies, considering spread and money management i am not sure you could make money, but anyway you have found a way that pleased you so keep like that @Emmanuel I agree, after so many times watching charts, no matter the entry point, we are all looking for the best entry, but in reality it's just to prevent a bad money management.
How come?
With a method that does provide a "best" entry and a "best" profitable exit the need for "bad" money management does not exist. Impulsive trading will cause a trader to use "bad" management to rectify those trading mistakes.

Inanimate objects (trading itself) cannot be good or bad they are just objects.
(An inanimate object by definition has no will of its own it can not be bad)

There are only good or bad trader's
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