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  • #1,152,201
  • Mar 23, 2019 6:49am Mar 23, 2019 6:49am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} {quote} Well, that's an old trick used on all forums, guys People can't possibly have more than 50% chances to get it right when we talk about a precise prediction for the next day! ...basically any prediction in trading. At first, people are taking options on both sides. In the end, when the market has spoken, those who were right are showing up proud, and those who get it wrong stay silent for a while... It's actually common thing in life as well. Because history doesn't care about losers, it is only acclaim the winners! It's human...
Good observation ! Assume 50 % correct chance at any time for both sides but can assume only oneway yes or no with range as probable support and resistance may easily probabilities higher ,say 75%. And when practice avoid 25 % risky trades can have much better outcome. Say 75+12.5%=87.5%
So just taking probabilities in oneway and avoid anytime or any risky trades we can improve our odds in winning .rest killing any bad /negative ones beyound limit without mercy !!
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,152,202
  • Mar 23, 2019 8:19am Mar 23, 2019 8:19am
Quoting fontu
{quote} Good observation ! Assume 50 % correct chance at any time for both sides but can assume only oneway yes or no with range as probable support and resistance may easily probabilities higher ,say 75%. And when practice avoid 25 % risky trades can have much better outcome. Say 75+12.5%=87.5% So just taking probabilities in oneway and avoid anytime or any risky trades we can improve our odds in winning .rest killing any bad /negative ones beyound limit without mercy !!
Let's use this 87.5% as true, so we have this:

Big players ( banks, brokers and ....) = 87,5% chance to win the trade

Small players ( we ) = 12,5% chance to win the trade

The big players earn money hunting the stop loss of the Small players.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #1,152,203
  • Mar 23, 2019 8:44am Mar 23, 2019 8:44am
Quoting fontu
{quote} Good observation ! Assume 50 % correct chance at any time for both sides but can assume only oneway yes or no with range as probable support and resistance may easily probabilities higher ,say 75%. And when practice avoid 25 % risky trades can have much better outcome. Say 75+12.5%=87.5% So just taking probabilities in oneway and avoid anytime or any risky trades we can improve our odds in winning .rest killing any bad /negative ones beyound limit without mercy !!
Hey, we can't do calc like this, think other way: we already get the safety 75%, why bother to increase risky 12.5%, 75% is enough.
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #1,152,204
  • Mar 23, 2019 8:52am Mar 23, 2019 8:52am
Quoting palpite
{quote} Let's use this 87.5% as true, so we have this: Big players ( banks, brokers and ....) = 87,5% chance to win the trade Small players ( we ) = 12,5% chance to win the trade The big players earn money hunting the stop loss of the Small players.
Big players bite each other, small players are only side dish
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #1,152,205
  • Mar 23, 2019 8:55am Mar 23, 2019 8:55am
Quoting palpite
{quote} Let's use this 87.5% as true, so we have this: Big players ( banks, brokers and ....) = 87,5% chance to win the trade Small players ( we ) = 12,5% chance to win the trade The big players earn money hunting the stop loss of the Small players.
why would the big players be after your small micro lot account? lol
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,152,206
  • Mar 23, 2019 8:56am Mar 23, 2019 8:56am
Quoting palpite
{quote} Let's use this 87.5% as true, so we have this: Big players ( banks, brokers and ....) = 87,5% chance to win the trade Small players ( we ) = 12,5% chance to win the trade The big players earn money hunting the stop loss of the Small players.
Look how the small players leave the life of the big players easier. We can see it in the sentiment of the FF. In the most of time, the sentiment is around of 50%. Whatever the side where the big players will open the trades, they will kill 50% of the Small traders.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: palpite.png Size: 6 KB
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #1,152,207
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:05am Mar 23, 2019 9:05am
Quoting palpite
{quote} Look how the small players leave the life of the big players easier. We can see it in the sentiment of the FF. In the most of time, the sentiment is around of 50%. Whatever the side where the big players will open the trades, they will kill 50% of the Small traders. {image}
if so how the big player will do with USDCAD sentiment.
So I think FF sentiment is only sentiment of small traders, nothing more that.
Attached Image
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #1,152,208
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:10am Mar 23, 2019 9:10am
Quoting palpite
{quote} Look how the small players leave the life of the big players easier. We can see it in the sentiment of the FF. In the most of time, the sentiment is around of 50%. Whatever the side where the big players will open the trades, they will kill 50% of the Small traders. {image}
https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...nts-post-esma/

I think it is more accurate to look at the percentage of winning/losing clients of brokers and it should tell you something.

Those who are able to consistently profit are swing traders and not day traders or scalpers since they are not impatient, gamblers, or emotional. These forums promote scalping and gambling. Even brokers attract beginners from these forums to trade as scalpers on lower time frame charts. In the end, people lose money and they stop visiting this forum.

If you trade with a 10pip stop loss, then you will almost always be stopped out due to random noise and volatility.
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,152,209
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:11am Mar 23, 2019 9:11am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} why would the big players be after your small micro lot account? lol
No, they not want accounts of micro lots, they want the account of assholes with big lot. lol
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #1,152,210
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:20am Mar 23, 2019 9:20am
the so called "big guys" (or rather their traders) are usually as dumb as the majority of the "small" ones in terms of their average level of market knowledge and the ability to profit from speculative trading... not much difference indeed...
  • #1,152,211
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:21am Mar 23, 2019 9:21am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...nts-post-esma/ I think it is more accurate to look at the percentage of winning/losing clients of brokers and it should tell you something. Those who are able to consistently profit are swing traders and not day traders or scalpers since they are not impatient, gamblers, or emotional. These forums promote scalping and gambling. Even brokers attract beginners from these forums to trade as scalpers on lower time frame charts. In the end, people...
So, is easy for you earn money. Just copy the trades of them. But why you are wrong in the most of the time ?
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #1,152,212
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:24am Mar 23, 2019 9:24am
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} if so how the big player will do with USDCAD sentiment. So I think FF sentiment is only sentiment of small traders, nothing more that. {image}
Read again my post.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #1,152,213
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:28am Mar 23, 2019 9:28am
Quoting Igrok
the so called "big guys" (or rather their traders) are usually as dumb as the majority of the "small" ones in terms of their average level of market knowledge and the ability to profit from speculative trading... not much difference indeed...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tempsnip.png Size: 221 KB
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,152,214
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:32am Mar 23, 2019 9:32am
Quoting palpite
{quote} So, is easy for you earn money. Just copy the trades of them. But why you are wrong in the most of the time ?
i'm right since my account equity went up over the last year

you are more wrong than me though since you scalp and lose 3x or more per day
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,152,215
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:37am Mar 23, 2019 9:37am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} i'm right since my account equity went up over the last year you are more wrong than me though since you scalp and lose 3x or more per day
Show me where i lose 3x or more in 1 day and show me the post where you earn all this money as you are saying ?
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #1,152,216
  • Edited 9:50am Mar 23, 2019 9:40am | Edited 9:50am
I'm familiar with the internal statistics of some banks, dealers and hedge funds... for the small guys it looks like this:
This is some approximate statistics from the dealer’s point of view, which I believe should be true for the industry in general. This statistics shows a dealer being an obvious winner while trading against its own clients. (Over 24-month period)
Winning months – 15. Losing months – 9.
1. Total annual profit – 63% (this is what the customers lost in the market of the total amount of all their funds in trade).
2. Average monthly profit – 5% ( profit of the dealer in relation to the total capital of the clientele)
3. Max monthly gain – 37% (means that the clients lost in just one month this percentage of the total capital)
4. Max monthly loss – 10% (this is what the dealer paid in one month period to its customers out of its own pocket)
5. Total customers’ loss over 24 months period – USD 41 million. Average customer monthly loss – USD 1,8 million.
6. Roughly 40-50% of customers’ losses can be attributed to spreads and slippages.
7. Average “life expectancy” for an active individual trader without him sending additional funds to the trading account ~ 2 months.

this is the actual stats coming directly from the back office of one of the major London based FX dealers with over 20 years in this business...
  • #1,152,217
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:55am Mar 23, 2019 9:55am
My respects, guys ...but is always 50-50%

First, S/R levels use to work as hurdles against the trend and they really pull back more then 50% situations indeed.
Same with oscillators' overbought/oversold. Same with average trend ranges, or MAs crossings or divergences... all patterns...
That tells something about the entries.

But how many pips pull back after a good entry ? How many pips ? How many pips is everything ! Target and stop is everything!!!
1. Tudor say EUR/USD is going up through resistance. Aim +15 pips.
2. Fontu say EUR/USD is going down, after hit resistance. Aim +30 pips.
3. Mr. Swine say EUR/USD is going up through resistance. Aim +45 greedy pips (stop also at -45 pips)
Altough Tudor and Fontu are in contradiction about the same resistance level which works fine, they both win in the end!!!

Conclusion: Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered !

That makes it a 50-50% game as long as nothing guarantees more than 50% that if the price will hit a certain level then the price will pull back 15 pips, or 30 pips, or 45 pips, or 65 pips, or 77 pips, or 88 pips, or 121 pips, or 512 pips, or 1024 pips ...............
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Member
  • #1,152,218
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:56am Mar 23, 2019 9:56am
General rule of thumb : Banks and brokers ( big traders ) are usually buying when everyone else(small traders) is selling and generally selling when everyone else is buying. There are several way to confirm this,among them being price action on a major bank holiday when the absence of bank trades translates into highly volatile markets that lack the counter balance and price equilibrium that their trades provide. Of course thin markets and wide spreads as well contribute to some degree of volatility but not significantly enough to fully explain the exaggerated price moves normally experienced on such days
  • #1,152,219
  • Mar 23, 2019 10:03am Mar 23, 2019 10:03am
Quoting eyeball
General rule of thumb : Banks and brokers ( big traders ) are usually buying when everyone else(small traders) is selling and generally selling when everyone else is buying. There are several way to confirm this,among them being price action on a major bank holiday when the absence of bank trades translates into highly volatile markets that lack the counter balance and price equilibrium that their trades provide. Of course thin markets and wide spreads as well contribute to some degree of volatility but not significantly enough to fully explain...
That means the banks and brokers communicate with each other! Agree?
How else do they know when to dump all shit against helpless retail players?
If they are not dumping in the same time results they fuck each other out!!!
...come ooon!
Member
  • #1,152,220
  • Mar 23, 2019 10:09am Mar 23, 2019 10:09am
Quoting eyeball
General rule of thumb : Banks and brokers ( big traders ) are usually buying when everyone else(small traders) is selling and generally selling when everyone else is buying. There are several way to confirm this,among them being price action on a major bank holiday when the absence of bank trades translates into highly volatile markets that lack the counter balance and price equilibrium that their trades provide. Of course thin markets and wide spreads as well contribute to some degree of volatility but not significantly enough to fully explain...
not true... the actual reason for buying or selling must be absolutely anything at any given moment... including virtually no apparent and no conscious reason at all... once I sold 1.4 billion contract on USD/JPY at once while taking profit on a longer-term accumulated position just because I was running late for a private jet to attend a party in Vegas... then it caused a quick drop of about 120 pips on the USD/JPY by also triggering someone else's stops below the market and the subsequent landslide and chain reaction... under normal circumstance I would have rather closed my position gradually and cautiously...
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