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The Really Useless Thread

  • #157,441
  • Mar 12, 2019 8:32am Mar 12, 2019 8:32am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... As it looks, considering where EU is sitting now, odds for ECB flow visiting 1.11 handle (=>1.118x => 1.112x) are quite high. ...
Quoting Replicant
{quote}... In any case, hedging all eu longs for ECB ...
Quoting Replicant
{quote} All in all, expectations were a dovish ECB, and ECB was very dovish imo TA wise, usual suspect 1.125x is still holding => giving the benefit of the doubt and deleveraging 25% of my hedge here => keeping the remaining for 1.118x (50%) and 1.112x (25%)...
Quoting Replicant
{quote} as it stands, ECB flow with an inline NFP/AHE tomorrow looks set to test the bottom of the new range 1.112x with intermediate target at 1.118x only a big miss tomorrow will short circuit the flow imo after, there is still that potential bullish combo pending from newt week onwards to aim the flip 1.131x ad the new top 1.142x
Quoting Replicant
yes that's big miss, almost flat FED dovish in 2 weeks is guarantee imo I will keep the 25% remaining of my hedge in EU until tuesday though ...
hedge works well so far

still holding the remaining 25% ; had itchy fingers to clear it as Cox sounds quite positive and constructive during Q/A at the Commons but I have just read gossips the DUP won't back the deal



Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... TA wise, a break to lower low won't reshuffle the cards that much if bulls manage to take back 1.128x/1.131x via the bullish combo expected from next week onwards : Brexit deal vote by UK parliament (on March 12, yes = eu bullish) , or no deal brexit vote (on March 13, no = eu bullish) and vote to delay Brexit (on March 14, yes = eu bullish), FED (on March 20, dovish on rates & inflation = eu bullish), US-China deal (end of march, deal = eu bullish) Meaning we could set the low of the quarter (and year ???) in EU with that ECB...
we are there now ...
  • #157,442
  • Mar 12, 2019 9:10am Mar 12, 2019 9:10am
Map I have in EURUSD :
1.112x (ST Bottom) <== 1.118x <== 1.122x (intraday only) <== 1.128x (FA Level) <==> 1.131x (Flip) ==> 1.136x (intraday only) ==> 1.142x (ST Top)
breaking up 1.151x unlocks as high 1.1650

in EURCHF :
1.122x <== 1.127x <== 1.131x (Flip) ==> 1.141x ==> 1.150x
breaking up 1.150x unlocks as high 1.1640

a flop tonight will short circuit current flow but I will use that to clear the remaining hedge and buy the dip ahead of second and third vote scheduled for tomorrow (vote against no deal brexit) and thursday (vote to extend article 50)
  • #157,443
  • Mar 12, 2019 1:28pm Mar 12, 2019 1:28pm
latest projection, no suspense a priori

345 MPs indicated they will vote against the deal
220 MPs will vote for the deal
72 unknown
  • #157,444
  • Mar 12, 2019 1:47pm Mar 12, 2019 1:47pm
The fact price is sitting so high ahead of the vote intrigued me as rejection of the agreement is now a done deal.

Expected flow is zigzag :

zig down via bad news are bad news (perfect to clear the remaining hedge + hopefully TP 110.2x in USDJPY)
zig up via bad news unlock good news (tomorrow and thursday votes + soft brexit/2nd ref having higher odds)
  • #157,445
  • Mar 13, 2019 7:49am Mar 13, 2019 7:49am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} JUVE broke down a soft support today but in my chart real reversal down will only come with the break of 1.20x (closing there now) could trigger -20%/-25% if lost {image}
JUVE managed to get through (against a surprisingly weak Atletico)
Gap up was hammered though : price is capped by last october reversal down (all locked above 57.xx)
Back to square one now (1.42xx)

I still think their current economic model and outlook are poor and that they will struggle marketing wise

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  • #157,446
  • Mar 13, 2019 7:52am Mar 13, 2019 7:52am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} JUVE managed to get through (against a surprisingly weak Atletico) Gap up was hammered though : price is capped by last october reversal down (all locked above 57.xx) Back to square one now (1.42xx) I still think their current economic model and outlook are poor and that they will struggle marketing wise {image}
you speak to Sisse ever? where does he hang his hat now?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #157,447
  • Mar 13, 2019 8:16am Mar 13, 2019 8:16am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} you speak to Sisse ever? where does he hang his hat now?
No, not recently. He owns a discussion platform now where he organizes some trading competitions.

Quoting Replicant
The fact price is sitting so high ahead of the vote intrigued me as rejection of the agreement is now a done deal. Expected flow is zigzag : zig down via bad news are bad news (perfect to clear the remaining hedge + hopefully TP 110.2x in USDJPY) zig up via bad news unlock good news (tomorrow and thursday votes + soft brexit/2nd ref having higher odds)
EURUSD flow stalling and struggling to take ST flip (1.131x), level that coincides whith H4 Reversal down and beginning of ECB flow.

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  • #157,448
  • Mar 13, 2019 11:22am Mar 13, 2019 11:22am
hmm very tricky

FA wise :

- yesterday, rejection of the agreement was heavily expected
- today, overwhelming majority is again expected against a no deal brexit
- tomorrow, extension or Article 50 is expected as well

a lot of technicalities only ahead now imo on Brexit front

as it stands, the only appropriate reading I see now is that whole UK bullish combo has been priced in with the flow to 1.131x
meaning there might be only crumbs left ...

Next important mover, FED - dovish expected - is still "far away" (one week ahead)

TA wise :

H4 is a screaming sell
flow can extend briefly as high as 1.136x (the crumbs left ?), bears will keep the upper hand

Meaning, all in all, we look set to sell the news...

=> All longs of the never ending swing cleared at entry price 1.131x
=> remaining hedge (prior to ECB) becomes my main position in EU
=> will had shorts if price pops up to 1.136x
=> target 1.122x
=> continuation down will be triggered if price breaks down that SL
  • #157,449
  • Mar 13, 2019 12:28pm Mar 13, 2019 12:28pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Flop. Only possible entry I see now is in the SH resistance (aggressive entry or wait for extension/rejection).
We are there now. Waiting for extension/rejection of the SH now.

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  • #157,450
  • Mar 14, 2019 6:09am Mar 14, 2019 6:09am
Quoting Replicant
UJ daily quick chart : {image} map in a nutshell imo : rejection of the SH is aiming 110.2x for a test breaking down 110.2x will mean continuation down if it breaks down, next target will be 109.2x, with 111.6x the one to fade on any retrace/dead cat bounce in between if plan fails, I will try again at 112.4x

111.6x last SH break down point, we are there now, crunching time ...

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  • #157,451
  • Mar 14, 2019 6:17am Mar 14, 2019 6:17am
Quoting Replicant
hmm very tricky FA wise : - yesterday, rejection of the agreement was heavily expected - today, overwhelming majority is again expected against a no deal brexit - tomorrow, extension or Article 50 is expected as well a lot of technicalities only ahead now imo on Brexit front as it stands, the only appropriate reading I see now is that whole UK bullish combo has been priced in with the flow to 1.131x meaning there might be only crumbs left ... Next important mover, FED - dovish expected - is still "far away" (one week ahead) TA wise : H4 is a screaming...


EURUSD on daily flow capped so far by last broken SH + last SH break down point
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  • #157,452
  • Mar 14, 2019 6:34am Mar 14, 2019 6:34am
on H4, last broken SH + last SH break down point are at 1.136x, that's why I wanted to add shorts there but by the look of it, D1 resistance has the upper hand

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  • #157,453
  • Mar 14, 2019 9:36am Mar 14, 2019 9:36am
Cac daily

No short signal, but bigger picture allows aggresive entry imo, in at 5341


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  • #157,454
  • Mar 14, 2019 2:04pm Mar 14, 2019 2:04pm
Verdict in UK : back to square one ...
They are just wasting everybody's time.

New try next week (20th) to approve the (same...) brexit deal

=> if it's approved (why would it be if nothing changes ?), asking technical delay till EU elections (June 30th) won't be a problem
=> if not, UK will ask a longer delay (delay that will force them to participate to EU parliamentary elections !) ==> 99.99% sure, ceteris paribus, EU will refuse that. They made it clear only big changes reshuffling UK internal policy (like general elections, new referendum, etc.), will push them to agree.
  • #157,455
  • Mar 15, 2019 6:04am Mar 15, 2019 6:04am
Quoting Replicant
Cac daily No short signal, but bigger picture allows aggresive entry imo, in at 5341 {image}

Aggressive entry is a flop. Waiting for a rejection now.

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  • #157,456
  • Mar 15, 2019 6:31am Mar 15, 2019 6:31am
EURUSD stuck at the ST flip 1.131x via latest Brexit developments

Gossips Attorney general Cox might change his analysis/conclusions on brexit deal ; DUP and Tory brexiteers might then back the deal next Wednesday

Benefit of the doubt seems to prevail, didn't have my expected pullback from the flip to 1.122x

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  • #157,457
  • Mar 15, 2019 8:01am Mar 15, 2019 8:01am
Lower SH capped by last SH break down point and rejected on H4

A L SL looks cooked in this TF, maybe I'm going to have my 1.122x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #157,458
  • Mar 15, 2019 11:17am Mar 15, 2019 11:17am
Quoting Replicant
Lower SH capped by last SH break down point and rejected on H4 A L SL looks cooked in this TF, maybe I'm going to have my 1.122x {image}
Nope. It's just more chop with a breach to HH on H4, still no pullback.

As it looks, UK combo has still the upper hand on the flows (stuck) and benefit of the doubt continue to prevail : there are right now discussions with the DUP and Cox to see how they could back the deal next Wednesday (!) ... with Tory Brexiters expected to follow their decision.

The Guardian has also just reported this :

We’re hearing suggestions that Nigel Dodds, the DUP’s deputy leader, is going to be saying something in a while about his party’s talks with the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox,
Dodds and colleagues are locked in intensive talks with Cox and the chancellor, Philip Hammond, try to reach an agreement to allow them to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
When he’s going to appear, or what he’ll say.. ‘Ulster says Yes?’ .. ‘we’ll keep talking?’ .. we don’t know yet.


In any case, I'm clearing now my remaining shorts loaded before ECB : range of possibilities over the weekend is too wide for my taste.

Completely flat in EURUSD now, first time since Powell's shift in NYC last Nov 28th .
Been 3 months long, one week hedged and 48 hours short .

All ST/MT/LT maps are still the same. MT/LT is still a no brainer imo but the very ST is too tricky.

Meanwhile, WW Equities all happy keeping pricing in a US-China deal, a long-delayed brexit (at worst) and ignoring global slowdown.
  • #157,459
  • Mar 28, 2019 1:04pm Mar 28, 2019 1:04pm
Quoting sisse
For those still kicking around that haven't seen in the last few months. Best wishes and all the best for 2018. sisse
Hope to read your new comments. I've read your post from the very start, dated April 2010. Still reading and understanding your S/R&price action method. I combine it with BB setup, and apply on Daily chart.

Setio
wish me pips
  • #157,460
  • Mar 29, 2019 9:17am Mar 29, 2019 9:17am
thank you for sharing with us. I think this is very useful.
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