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Break of 2764 big bearish D close
EURUSD daily

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Quoting goosebone
Break of 2764 big bearish D close
Yup
What a dick on this one, snubbing the aggresive entry !
Agree 2764, smart area to fade any retrace

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  • Post #157,424
  • Quote
  • Edited Mar 8, 2019 7:21am Mar 7, 2019 7:11pm | Edited Mar 8, 2019 7:21am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yup What a dick on this one, snubbing the aggresive entry ! Agree 2764, smart area to fade any retrace {image}
Without news I imagine 2764-2767 should provide only slightly more expensive tickets if chop isn't the way forward and we got the start. NFP could throw it all in the blender ST.
Wages up, headline # down but 20k!? Lol
yes that's big miss, almost flat
FED dovish in 2 weeks is guarantee imo

I will keep the 25% remaining of my hedge in EU until tuesday though

I have started to build short positions in UJ :
FA wise, double whammy = FED + WW slowdown
TA wise, retrace completed on W1 (111.7x), and rejection on D1 (111.6x)
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UJ daily quick chart :

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map in a nutshell imo :

rejection of the SH is aiming 110.2x for a test
breaking down 110.2x will mean continuation down
if it breaks down, next target will be 109.2x, with 111.6x the one to fade on any retrace/dead cat bounce in between

if plan fails, I will try again at 112.4x
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ES completing minimum flow (272x) after the rejection
losing this level unlocks 268x/9x
still empty handed on this one sadly

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Quoting Replicant
UJ daily quick chart : {image} map in a nutshell imo : rejection of the SH is aiming 110.2x for a test breaking down 110.2x will mean continuation down if it breaks down, next target will be 109.2x, with 111.6x the one to fade on any retrace/dead cat bounce in between if plan fails, I will try again at 112.4x
UJ ST Map

==> 110.2x ==> 109.2

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UJ MT Map

==> 109.2 ==>107.9 ==> 106.2

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UJ LT Map

==> 104.8x ==> 100.xx

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S&P To Do List:
2764/67.
Quoting goosebone
S&P To Do List: 2764/67.

Yes, I have a pending there but important nuance is : we haven't yet triggered any continuation down, meaning selling the break point could be dangerous as it's not guarantee the flow is/ will be only a retrace/dead cat bounce from 272x. But I've booked my ticket anyway, will see.
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Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yes, I have a pending there but important nuance is : we haven't yet triggered any continuation down, meaning selling the break point could be dangerous as it's not guarantee the flow is/ will be only a retrace/dead cat bounce from 272x. But I've booked my ticket anyway, will see.
What's your confirm for continuation lower? Break of 2729 ? Now extended 2726?
Quoting goosebone
{quote} What's your confirm for continuation lower? Break of 2729 ? Now extended 2726?

Yes that's SL.



Quoting Replicant
{quote}... And EURCHF is back to its flip (1.131x) after clearing bull target at 1.141x. ...
1.131x again confirmed as strong support and flip for EURCHF

Revisions down in EZ growth for 2018 will have no impact on the pair (outlook is not better for Switzerland and SNB perma dovish)
Only no brexit deal will shortcircuit the map imo

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What a mess in the UK
ranges from a last minute "new" deal in Strasbourg today to a no meaningful vote finally tomorrow

as it stands, without deal updates, it looks set for a No tomorrow (and a No on Wednesday and Yes on Thursday)
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Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yes, I have a pending there but important nuance is : we haven't yet triggered any continuation down, meaning selling the break point could be dangerous as it's not guarantee the flow is/ will be only a retrace/dead cat bounce from 272x. But I've booked my ticket anyway, will see.

Flop. Only possible entry I see now is in the SH resistance (aggressive entry or wait for extension/rejection).
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Quoting Replicant
{quote} Flop. Only possible entry I see now is in the SH resistance (aggressive entry or wait for extension/rejection).
Yup. Didn't pan out that way. Guess a close of the week under 2775 would be encouraging. Seems miles away right now. Someone tell Bob Mueller he's up.
last minute new Brexit deal or just cosmetic changes ?
latest developments/statement imminent :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

direct impact in EURUSD and EURCHF

EURUSD H4

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EURUSD Daily

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Quoting goosebone
{quote} Got the ST fade at 2798. Already some confirmation there and retest. Might take more than one, and certainly may not hold, it's not a hard barrier
Definitely more than once lol. 2798 again. I'd love to say I saw it coming but.. not really.
DUP and Tory brexiters verdict expected in the upcoming hours
If negative, it will be enough to kill any chance for tonight's vote
If positive, uncertainty will remain (Corbyn told MPs to vote deal down) but will be quite low imo

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lol, Financial Times :

"The Conservative party has been captured by demagogues, economic illiterates, provincial nationalists and wild-eyed free marketeers."
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