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  • #157,421
  • Mar 7, 2019 3:48pm Mar 7, 2019 3:48pm
Break of 2764 big bearish D close
  • #157,422
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:03pm Mar 7, 2019 4:03pm
EURUSD daily

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  • #157,423
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:09pm Mar 7, 2019 4:09pm
Quoting goosebone
Break of 2764 big bearish D close
Yup
What a dick on this one, snubbing the aggresive entry !
Agree 2764, smart area to fade any retrace

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  • #157,424
  • Edited Mar 8, 2019 6:21am Mar 7, 2019 6:11pm | Edited Mar 8, 2019 6:21am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yup What a dick on this one, snubbing the aggresive entry ! Agree 2764, smart area to fade any retrace {image}
Without news I imagine 2764-2767 should provide only slightly more expensive tickets if chop isn't the way forward and we got the start. NFP could throw it all in the blender ST.
  • #157,425
  • Mar 8, 2019 7:37am Mar 8, 2019 7:37am
Wages up, headline # down but 20k!? Lol
  • #157,426
  • Mar 8, 2019 8:03am Mar 8, 2019 8:03am
yes that's big miss, almost flat
FED dovish in 2 weeks is guarantee imo

I will keep the 25% remaining of my hedge in EU until tuesday though

I have started to build short positions in UJ :
FA wise, double whammy = FED + WW slowdown
TA wise, retrace completed on W1 (111.7x), and rejection on D1 (111.6x)
  • #157,427
  • Mar 8, 2019 8:33am Mar 8, 2019 8:33am
UJ daily quick chart :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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map in a nutshell imo :

rejection of the SH is aiming 110.2x for a test
breaking down 110.2x will mean continuation down
if it breaks down, next target will be 109.2x, with 111.6x the one to fade on any retrace/dead cat bounce in between

if plan fails, I will try again at 112.4x
  • #157,428
  • Mar 8, 2019 9:29am Mar 8, 2019 9:29am
ES completing minimum flow (272x) after the rejection
losing this level unlocks 268x/9x
still empty handed on this one sadly

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  • #157,429
  • Mar 10, 2019 7:02pm Mar 10, 2019 7:02pm
Quoting Replicant
UJ daily quick chart : {image} map in a nutshell imo : rejection of the SH is aiming 110.2x for a test breaking down 110.2x will mean continuation down if it breaks down, next target will be 109.2x, with 111.6x the one to fade on any retrace/dead cat bounce in between if plan fails, I will try again at 112.4x
UJ ST Map

==> 110.2x ==> 109.2

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UJ MT Map

==> 109.2 ==>107.9 ==> 106.2

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UJ LT Map

==> 104.8x ==> 100.xx

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  • #157,430
  • Mar 11, 2019 7:27am Mar 11, 2019 7:27am
S&P To Do List:
2764/67.
  • #157,431
  • Mar 11, 2019 7:48am Mar 11, 2019 7:48am
Quoting goosebone
S&P To Do List: 2764/67.

Yes, I have a pending there but important nuance is : we haven't yet triggered any continuation down, meaning selling the break point could be dangerous as it's not guarantee the flow is/ will be only a retrace/dead cat bounce from 272x. But I've booked my ticket anyway, will see.
  • #157,432
  • Mar 11, 2019 8:06am Mar 11, 2019 8:06am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yes, I have a pending there but important nuance is : we haven't yet triggered any continuation down, meaning selling the break point could be dangerous as it's not guarantee the flow is/ will be only a retrace/dead cat bounce from 272x. But I've booked my ticket anyway, will see.
What's your confirm for continuation lower? Break of 2729 ? Now extended 2726?
  • #157,433
  • Mar 11, 2019 8:36am Mar 11, 2019 8:36am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} What's your confirm for continuation lower? Break of 2729 ? Now extended 2726?

Yes that's SL.



Quoting Replicant
{quote}... And EURCHF is back to its flip (1.131x) after clearing bull target at 1.141x. ...
1.131x again confirmed as strong support and flip for EURCHF

Revisions down in EZ growth for 2018 will have no impact on the pair (outlook is not better for Switzerland and SNB perma dovish)
Only no brexit deal will shortcircuit the map imo

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  • #157,434
  • Mar 11, 2019 8:59am Mar 11, 2019 8:59am
What a mess in the UK
ranges from a last minute "new" deal in Strasbourg today to a no meaningful vote finally tomorrow

as it stands, without deal updates, it looks set for a No tomorrow (and a No on Wednesday and Yes on Thursday)
  • #157,435
  • Mar 11, 2019 12:36pm Mar 11, 2019 12:36pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yes, I have a pending there but important nuance is : we haven't yet triggered any continuation down, meaning selling the break point could be dangerous as it's not guarantee the flow is/ will be only a retrace/dead cat bounce from 272x. But I've booked my ticket anyway, will see.

Flop. Only possible entry I see now is in the SH resistance (aggressive entry or wait for extension/rejection).
  • #157,436
  • Mar 11, 2019 2:09pm Mar 11, 2019 2:09pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Flop. Only possible entry I see now is in the SH resistance (aggressive entry or wait for extension/rejection).
Yup. Didn't pan out that way. Guess a close of the week under 2775 would be encouraging. Seems miles away right now. Someone tell Bob Mueller he's up.
  • #157,437
  • Mar 11, 2019 5:02pm Mar 11, 2019 5:02pm
last minute new Brexit deal or just cosmetic changes ?
latest developments/statement imminent :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

direct impact in EURUSD and EURCHF

EURUSD H4

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EURUSD Daily

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  • #157,438
  • Mar 11, 2019 6:32pm Mar 11, 2019 6:32pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Got the ST fade at 2798. Already some confirmation there and retest. Might take more than one, and certainly may not hold, it's not a hard barrier
Definitely more than once lol. 2798 again. I'd love to say I saw it coming but.. not really.
  • #157,439
  • Mar 12, 2019 7:30am Mar 12, 2019 7:30am
DUP and Tory brexiters verdict expected in the upcoming hours
If negative, it will be enough to kill any chance for tonight's vote
If positive, uncertainty will remain (Corbyn told MPs to vote deal down) but will be quite low imo

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  • #157,440
  • Mar 12, 2019 7:41am Mar 12, 2019 7:41am
lol, Financial Times :

"The Conservative party has been captured by demagogues, economic illiterates, provincial nationalists and wild-eyed free marketeers."
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