Trading the GBP pairs during the Brexit decision | Forex Factory

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Trading the GBP pairs during the Brexit decision

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 7:20pm Mar 10, 2019 10:25am | Edited 7:20pm
This thread is only for those who are trading the GBP pairs during the Brexit decision. Discussion will be focused on establishing high probability trades from key technical levels.

The Brexit timetable for this week is shown with the key dates.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47514248

I will be posting my charts to show from where I think it would be best to buy the GBP since I do not think that the U.K will leave without a deal.

That pairs that I will be trading this week are:

GBP/USD
GBP/CAD
GBP/CHF
GBP/AUD
GBP/NZD
GBP/JPY

Strategy:

1. If the vote by March 12 passes, then buy GBP.

2. If the vote by March 12 fails, then wait for the March 13 vote. If the March 13 vote fails, then wait for March 14 vote. If the March 14 vote passes, then buy GBP.

GBP pairs can be very volatile and it is required to have a wide stop. The price can also be influenced by economic data releases or other news this week.
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Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #2
  • Edited 4:22pm Mar 10, 2019 4:11pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting SheldonCoops
Dear MrPresident, do you consider GBP/JPY to be severely under-valued? A good friend of mine who is very good tells me that she believes the fair value of GBP/JPY should be around 152 at least.
That will depend on the short or long term. In the short term of this week, I consider it to be undervalued. Over the longer term with the BOJ monetary policy change, I consider it to be overvalued due to the need to raise interest rates if the economy in Japan improves.
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #3
  • Edited 5:48pm Mar 10, 2019 5:24pm | Edited 5:48pm
I think it will test 1.308-31 today then drop.
next day will drop and break today’s low may be around 1.292-3
And then we go make new high to forming three drives

edited: possible go lower
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  • #4
  • Edited 5:24pm Mar 11, 2019 5:12pm | Edited 5:24pm
All of the GBP pairs are moving right where my targets are. But I expect the price to sharply reverse if the meaningful vote on March 12 fails.

The price spikes at the start of the day are just based on rumors.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/...rexit-donohoe/

Quote
They point out that there could be something in place now that would give British Prime Minister Theresa May "a better chance" of getting the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement passed in Westminster tomorrow.
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #5
  • Mar 11, 2019 6:52pm Mar 11, 2019 6:52pm
When the brexit decision will start??
  • #6
  • Mar 11, 2019 9:25pm Mar 11, 2019 9:25pm
Quoting andie04
When the brexit decision will start??

May says that she'll trigger art. 50 on the 29th of March at noobtime, oh sorry noontime.

Get the resign after that for letting Britain go down the toilet.
  • #7
  • Mar 11, 2019 9:40pm Mar 11, 2019 9:40pm
the bank of England sentiment its sideway so the pound it will not move alot dependent the vote if they reject it that mean uk there is other option like extend the leaving date or new referendum like may said before so lets wait and see what coming tomorrow
  • #8
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:44pm Mar 11, 2019 10:44pm
Quoting kingzboleto
the bank of England sentiment its sideway so the pound it will not move alot dependent the vote if they reject it that mean uk there is other option like extend the leaving date or new referendum like may said before so lets wait and see what coming tomorrow
The possibilities are endless...it could be a buy the rumor sell the news which explains why GBP gained so much. But some people see GBP as severely undervalued at the moment, so even if the vote is rejected, we might see a fall followed by buying from long term bulls. Basically, we have as good a guess as the man playing roulette right now.
  • #9
  • Mar 12, 2019 5:50am Mar 12, 2019 5:50am
The negotiations so far lead to nothing new and the Brexit deal may be rejected by parliament today.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47533666

The vote on the deal will be after 19:00 London time.
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #10
  • Edited 1:56pm Mar 12, 2019 1:44pm | Edited 1:56pm
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-tonight.html

Quote
What will happen if May's deal fails tonight? Brexit could be delayed or 'cancelled', Remainers might trigger a second referendum... and the PM could be forced to QUIT

I expect the meaningful vote to be defeated which will be initially negative for GBP. We will have to see how it plays out today. I think that the strong support levels will hold on GBP pairs since the market is betting against a no-deal scenario. A no-deal would be a catastrophe to the U.K and EU economies and the politicians do not want that if they are sane.

Inserted Video
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #11
  • Mar 12, 2019 2:04pm Mar 12, 2019 2:04pm
Quoting MrPresident
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-tonight.html {quote} I expect the meaningful vote to be defeated which will be initially negative for GBP. We will have to see how it plays out today. I think that the strong support levels will hold on GBP pairs since the market is betting against a no-deal scenario. A no-deal would be a catastrophe to the U.K and EU economies and the politicians do not want that if they are sane. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4UmQBK3aS0
What level do you think it will hold?
  • #12
  • Mar 12, 2019 2:08pm Mar 12, 2019 2:08pm
Quoting Aratap
{quote} What level do you think it will hold?
i'm trading multiple pairs and I have provided charts earlier to show where I think the price will hold, i marketed at most three levels for each chart based on my analysis
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #13
  • Mar 12, 2019 2:10pm Mar 12, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} i'm trading multiple pairs and I have provided charts earlier to show where I think the price will hold, i marketed at most three levels for each chart based on my analysis
Oh sorry. I forgot to mention the pair.
I bet GU at 1.29.

Thank you.
  • #14
  • Mar 12, 2019 2:24pm Mar 12, 2019 2:24pm
Meaningful vote defeated.
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #15
  • Mar 12, 2019 3:27pm Mar 12, 2019 3:27pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} i'm trading multiple pairs and I have provided charts earlier to show where I think the price will hold, i marketed at most three levels for each chart based on my analysis
Prices are doing exactly what you said it will, I am currently following with a open trade on GbpJpy. Let's see how it all plays out
Always ontop
  • #16
  • Mar 13, 2019 7:33am Mar 13, 2019 7:33am
Next vote today.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47548498
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #17
  • Mar 13, 2019 9:33am Mar 13, 2019 9:33am
Who is supporting the idea of bottoming at 1.2650 on Friday's close? (No fundamental BS, just pure technicals)
  • #18
  • Mar 13, 2019 9:54am Mar 13, 2019 9:54am
Quoting ninjakiller
(No fundamental BS, just pure technicals)
Fundamentals lead the market, not technicals.
  • #19
  • Mar 13, 2019 2:07pm Mar 13, 2019 2:07pm
No deal Brexit vote soon

https://youtube.com/watch?v=sU3qOTMyiiI
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #20
  • Mar 13, 2019 2:31pm Mar 13, 2019 2:31pm
So another vote for tomorrow right?
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