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ReadtheMarket - Supply and Demand with Price Action

  • #4,961
  • Mar 8, 2019 10:46am Mar 8, 2019 10:46am
Quoting TraderNZ
{quote} Hmm... S/D traders hope flags hold. Are we S/D traders? Also zoom out on 1 hour, there was a beautiful long there, it may not respect that 5m flag? Cheers
Thank you very much for the response I know I should be looking for a nice approach to the edge and a pattern to validate my trade there at the top. Also about that NZDUSD long that you mentioned on the Hourly I took a look at it but I don't understand why long when it did not touch the demand? Hope I makes sense
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  • #4,962
  • Mar 8, 2019 10:55am Mar 8, 2019 10:55am
Quoting Copis
{quote} Hi i will try (i never trade NZDUSD i made now an fast painting) {image} {image}
Thank you very much @Copis I went back and checked the things you have highlighted and made a lot of sense.I see that a trick has been played but why would you identify it as a one is there a rule I missed?Hope that the question is not stupid
  • #4,963
  • Mar 8, 2019 11:40am Mar 8, 2019 11:40am
Quoting premiumEntry
{quote} Thank you very much @Copis I went back and checked the things you have highlighted and made a lot of sense.I see that a trick has been played but why would you identify it as a one is there a rule I missed?Hope that the question is not stupid
Ok i hope the 5M is not to big (4k) and 1Min for Detail
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aka Liquinvest
  • #4,964
  • Mar 8, 2019 12:36pm Mar 8, 2019 12:36pm
Quoting Copis
{quote} Ok i hope the 5M is not to big (4k) and 1Min for Detail {image} {image}
Great so basically you consider the FTR a trick being played?
  • #4,965
  • Mar 8, 2019 1:35pm Mar 8, 2019 1:35pm
Quoting premiumEntry
{quote} Great so basically you consider the FTR a trick being played?
it's not about the patterns. it's about where volume could be. in the example you see that only the first target price was reached (eurusd the same). i didn't look at the nzdusd in its entirety because i didn't trade it, the example was based on your chart.
aka Liquinvest
  • #4,966
  • Mar 8, 2019 1:52pm Mar 8, 2019 1:52pm
Quoting Copis
{quote} it's not about the patterns. it's about where volume could be. in the example you see that only the first target price was reached (eurusd the same). i didn't look at the nzdusd in its entirety because i didn't trade it, the example was based on your chart.
I found a similar example of what you are talking about hopefully. Can you confirm it
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  • #4,967
  • Edited 11:19pm Mar 8, 2019 9:54pm | Edited 11:19pm
Quoting premiumEntry
{quote} Thank you very much for the response I know I should be looking for a nice approach to the edge and a pattern to validate my trade there at the top. Also about that NZDUSD long that you mentioned on the Hourly I took a look at it but I don't understand why long when it did not touch the demand? Hope I makes sense {image}
Would you go to the movies, and take out a pair of binoculars? You wouldn't see the whole picture.

Try EURNZD daily analysis see if anything interesting is coming up, maybe next week.

I know it's cryptic, but as fxyogi would say, this is not mine to teach.

Cheers
  • #4,969
  • Mar 8, 2019 10:57pm Mar 8, 2019 10:57pm
Quoting mica
Ahdat, I actually have a good one to show off too... EU/US. I got the entry somewhat based on the confirmation and it worked out well in hindsight. You might also notice on the chart that there is a pending order that never got filled. For the sake of studying chart, I'd like to have your insights how you would mark the chart. - Usually, I look at the extreme of the edge, in this case, I placed a pending order. Since it never got filled, I think I marked it wrongly. Do you think the position 3 is a legit level to work? If yes, what would you do...
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  • #4,970
  • Mar 8, 2019 11:18pm Mar 8, 2019 11:18pm
Quoting premiumEntry
{quote} Thank you very much for the response I know I should be looking for a nice approach to the edge and a pattern to validate my trade there at the top. Also about that NZDUSD long that you mentioned on the Hourly I took a look at it but I don't understand why long when it did not touch the demand? Hope I makes sense {image}
Agree, it didn't touch the 'demand zone'
  • #4,971
  • Mar 9, 2019 3:23am Mar 9, 2019 3:23am
Quoting premiumEntry
{quote} I found a similar example of what you are talking about hopefully. Can you confirm it {image} {image}
it will good to hear from RTM Professionals if this is valid or not im only an rookie.
aka Liquinvest
  • #4,972
  • Edited 4:32am Mar 9, 2019 3:24am | Edited 4:32am
Quoting clay.fxp
{quote} {image} {image}
my analysis (4K maybe you must scroll) i traded here the second qm Level ;-)
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HFT for Final Target
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similar decisions in this chart there is one more inside maybe you find it
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aka Liquinvest
  • #4,973
  • Mar 9, 2019 6:01am Mar 9, 2019 6:01am
Hi....
Actually just find my self,
Not sure about this
"Why we touch trade? What happen with PA m.o.?"
RIP RTM
  • #4,974
  • Mar 11, 2019 12:14pm Mar 11, 2019 12:14pm
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  • #4,975
  • Mar 11, 2019 1:44pm Mar 11, 2019 1:44pm
Here is my take on SP500. What do you guys think about it ?

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  • #4,976
  • Mar 11, 2019 2:49pm Mar 11, 2019 2:49pm
Quoting Zyon
Here is my take on SP500. What do you guys think about it ? {image} {image}
Hi Zyon,

For me the down trend has hit its target. Purple box on my chart.
Id' look above red box for short, wait for blue box to be hit.
Price has pierced compression (green) and trapping traders to go long on breakout of the red box
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  • #4,977
  • Mar 11, 2019 4:51pm Mar 11, 2019 4:51pm
Quoting MTL Trader
{quote} Hi Zyon, For me the down trend has hit its target. Purple box on my chart. Id' look above red box for short, wait for blue box to be hit. Price has pierced compression (green) and trapping traders to go long on breakout of the red box {image}
While I do agree that on that scale we might have reached the target I still take into account that there were some orders left below.
Nevertheless you have valid point that we might jump from here towards and through stops around 2820 area so that orders around QM level are filled.

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Those "scales" are still bothering me
  • #4,978
  • Mar 11, 2019 9:22pm Mar 11, 2019 9:22pm
better wake up, and the sooner, the better

i mean your thought of "there were some orders left below"
whose orders? you retailer or they market makers (MM)?

if yours, then when price drop back, are you gonna long from down there becoz of retailer buys pending are there wait for you?
even if it is true, so you buy with the retailer's buy? we all know retailers are pigs in the market, and you are trading the same direction with retailers' rest of BUY???
don't we all know that MM are trading AGAINST retailers?

so it must be MM's?
so this (or these) MM is so freaking stupid, when SP500 rise almost 25%, and drop all the way back again, it still wish to buy? regardless of the drop is from where? regardless of how long/fast the drop is? Do you truly believe those MM, who employs smartest mind, and can see most of market depth, would just sit down there with their PO buys waiting for months or years?

it is time to get rid of some stupid sayings or belief that came from the very earlier origin of this whole methodology.

to trade effectively, we still have two options:
1. either we don't think abt MM's operation, but focus only on the price action
2. or understand MM's operation as possible as we can, and trade the guess

remember, even the most powerful MM, it still has to change his phucking plan when earlier today's BREXIT news is not fitting its PO orders........ and when the MM can change, why would a retailer believe in "there must be orders"?

Quoting Zyon
{quote} While I do agree that on that scale we might have reached the target I still take into account that there were some orders left below. Nevertheless you have valid point that we might jump from here towards and through stops around 2820 area so that orders around QM level are filled. {image} Those "scales" are still bothering me
  • #4,979
  • Mar 12, 2019 6:51am Mar 12, 2019 6:51am
Quoting charvo
better wake up, and the sooner, the better i mean your thought of "there were some orders left below" whose orders? you retailer or they market makers (MM)? if yours, then when price drop back, are you gonna long from down there becoz of retailer buys pending are there wait for you? even if it is true, so you buy with the retailer's buy? we all know retailers are pigs in the market, and you are trading the same direction with retailers' rest of BUY??? don't we all know that MM are trading AGAINST retailers? so it must be MM's? so this (or these)...
Charvo,
Thanks for your input. In fact contrary to what you posted I was thinking about getting short and liquidating my position around mentioned level (be it origin of the up move and/or QM level below). I must be honest though that the size and the vigor of the "retrace" surprised me (still nothing which wouldn't fit RTM framework - mentioned by me on the charts). However as MTL Trader pointed out we might have reached the targer

What I got from your message is that we should focus on (hidden) agenda behind the moves, not only PA itself. There are times were ITs, even big ones, might be forced to adjust their positions either because of the some unexpected accident/news or just because fakeout is needed to confuse the biggest group of people.

In other words it's not just flag-being-engulfed-so-that-it-is-free-to-go-to-another one. It is rather ITs maneuvering their portfolio in that fashion so that cost of doing so is the lowest .... and the best way for doing this is opening positions where other (retail/uninformed) traders are (forced) to sell/buy (hint stop orders) and closing them on the opposite side (repeat step 1)
  • #4,980
  • Mar 12, 2019 10:04am Mar 12, 2019 10:04am
yes, your inference is correct.

my personal belief is MM's manipulation is very complicated, and highly variable during the realtime trading. we cannot 100% rely on a simple and highly specific "if... then it must" rule, simply due to the variables.

if i have to believe only 1 thing in the market, i believe it is NEVER 100% controllable.

but on the other hand, there's one thing MM definitely needs: the liquidity, that is, the retailer's positions (including small IT players)
then next question is where are the retailers' positions? since that's where the price will go (or even turn later).

my guess needs a prerequisite: the whole price chart we see everyday, is drawn by the dominating MM. every support/resistance, supply/demand zone, FTR, FL, PAZ, you name it, it is drawn by the MM. wherever there are orders, we can call them order pockets. most obvious order pockets are SR/SD; FL/FTR might be a bit hidden.

and don't think FL/FTR is some secret weapon, instead, i reckon pretty much most experienced traders (and MM) know there are (or used to be) orders. Hence, the MM's job is to manipulate the price to the easier / closer order pockets, and use them to drive oppositely to MM's real target.

we often observed momentum run to a FL, and instantly reversed. it is simply because the MM is the only one dominating the market space (after killing all small player/retailers), and the MM knows that at the FL, there will likely EMERGE new players, so the MM's safest action would be exit with profit.
If there are indeed new players showing up at the FL, the momentum approach to the FL will be slow down, and price consolidating near the FL.
If there are very few new players showing interest, the momentum approach to the FL may often quickly reversed, and the MM may even unable to unload all its positions, so the MM has to initiate 2nd run to the FL.

this is a topic that i cannot cover in a post, as it is too deep, and i'm only guessing most of it (very likely wrong)......
but hope you be aware that many early claims on this thread are mistaken, imo. those FTR/FL/Engulf, we have to consider in the context, the whole price structure, higher TF, in order to interpret its true intention.

some recent posts saying "stop trading", that is close to the essence of the price action, because the MM always need the small players' stops triggerred and then go to the opposite way -- the MM's target.

Quoting Zyon
{quote} In other words it's not just flag-being-engulfed-so-that-it-is-free-to-go-to-another one. It is rather ITs maneuvering their portfolio in that fashion so that cost of doing so is the lowest .... and the best way for doing this is opening positions where other (retail/uninformed) traders are (forced) to sell/buy (hint stop orders) and closing them on the opposite side (repeat step 1)
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