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ReadtheMarket - Supply and Demand with Price Action

  • #4,941
  • Mar 7, 2019 7:06am Mar 7, 2019 7:06am
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  • #4,942
  • Mar 7, 2019 7:19am Mar 7, 2019 7:19am
Quoting ahdat
{quote} this is what i see. Looking left more would be helpful as well. btw i generally try to be careful trading against a strong trend. They can break rules and just keep going in trend direction. {image}
You are right , Ahdat. To show you how wrong I was in marking up the chart, here is the follow up chart.

This is what happened

when you have chance, can you elaborate some of your thought in putting those boxes to the left? From what you marked there, I would have TP.

need a lot more understanding of the charts.....
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  • #4,943
  • Mar 7, 2019 7:41am Mar 7, 2019 7:41am
Quoting ahdat
{quote} this is what i see. Looking left more would be helpful as well. btw i generally try to be careful trading against a strong trend. They can break rules and just keep going in trend direction. {image}

Ahdat, I have another failed trade USD/JPY. what could be your take in marking the chart on this one?

As you can see, all my marks were all around a lower FTR, however when the price came back, it shot all the way up to the upper FTR.

I'd like to see how you would mark this chart that could lead to our expectations at least to the closest level.
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  • #4,944
  • Mar 7, 2019 11:24am Mar 7, 2019 11:24am
Quoting mica
{quote} You are right , Ahdat. To show you how wrong I was in marking up the chart, here is the follow up chart. This is what happened when you have chance, can you elaborate some of your thought in putting those boxes to the left? From what you marked there, I would have TP. need a lot more understanding of the charts..... {image}
Ah yea what you thought was an engulf is now obviously a FO. Yea the reaction wasn't looking good, I would have considered tp1 when price was starting to turn over around your FO area. Even if you don't get 1:1 on your tp1, its better to get something if that's what price is telling you.

Hmmm its hard to explain. I just did a lot of practicing finding and flipping these FLs. Usually I'll see somewhere that looks like it was holding price. And if things align as i go left and right, then its probably right. In this case the pole/gap stood out to me.
RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
  • #4,945
  • Mar 7, 2019 11:48am Mar 7, 2019 11:48am
Quoting mica
{quote} Ahdat, I have another failed trade USD/JPY. what could be your take in marking the chart on this one? As you can see, all my marks were all around a lower FTR, however when the price came back, it shot all the way up to the upper FTR. I'd like to see how you would mark this chart that could lead to our expectations at least to the closest level. {image}
Here you go, basically we need a higher TF view of what's going on. Looks like you were trapped in the LTF and forgetting the HTF view (it happens to me all the time too).

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RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
  • #4,946
  • Mar 7, 2019 12:50pm Mar 7, 2019 12:50pm
Quoting ahdat
{quote} Ah yea what you thought was an engulf is now obviously a FO. Yea the reaction wasn't looking good, I would have considered tp1 when price was starting to turn over around your FO area. Even if you don't get 1:1 on your tp1, its better to get something if that's what price is telling you. Hmmm its hard to explain. I just did a lot of practicing finding and flipping these FLs. Usually I'll see somewhere that looks like it was holding price. And if things align as i go left and right, then its probably right. In this case the pole/gap stood...
In retrospect, there was actually a confirmation to warn me to get out before it was to late. Yup, TP at the mentioned level should be a rule to follow all the time
  • #4,947
  • Mar 7, 2019 12:51pm Mar 7, 2019 12:51pm
Quoting ahdat
{quote} Here you go, basically we need a higher TF view of what's going on. Looks like you were trapped in the LTF and forgetting the HTF view (it happens to me all the time too). {image}
Thanks, Ahdat. I'll read this chart again ....
  • #4,948
  • Mar 7, 2019 1:01pm Mar 7, 2019 1:01pm
Ahdat, I actually have a good one to show off too... EU/US.

I got the entry somewhat based on the confirmation and it worked out well in hindsight.

You might also notice on the chart that there is a pending order that never got filled.

For the sake of studying chart, I'd like to have your insights how you would mark the chart.

- Usually, I look at the extreme of the edge, in this case, I placed a pending order. Since it never got filled, I think I marked it wrongly.

Do you think the position 3 is a legit level to work? If yes, what would you do when price is approach there?
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  • #4,949
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:04pm Mar 7, 2019 2:04pm
Nice one! I wouldn’t say you marked it wrong. When you have the right trade direction, price can really turn anywhere. You can be safe and cover all flags near the origin (for lower R), wait for the absolute mpl (which you might miss), or do what you did at put some at a safe entry, then another at the absolute mpl). Just depends on how you want to trade.

Quoting mica
Ahdat, I actually have a good one to show off too... EU/US. I got the entry somewhat based on the confirmation and it worked out well in hindsight. You might also notice on the chart that there is a pending order that never got filled. For the sake of studying chart, I'd like to have your insights how you would mark the chart. - Usually, I look at the extreme of the edge, in this case, I placed a pending order. Since it never got filled, I think I marked it wrongly. Do you think the position 3 is a legit level to work? If yes, what would you do...
RIP RTM - long live Nonsense Trading
  • #4,950
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:45pm Mar 7, 2019 2:45pm
Todays trade. AU short. Engulf of 4hr FL/Demand, wait for retrace, then entry on 15 min QM- 8R.
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  • #4,951
  • Edited 4:51pm Mar 7, 2019 4:39pm | Edited 4:51pm
Quoting mica
{quote} Ahdat, I have another failed trade USD/JPY. what could be your take in marking the chart on this one? As you can see, all my marks were all around a lower FTR, however when the price came back, it shot all the way up to the upper FTR. I'd like to see how you would mark this chart that could lead to our expectations at least to the closest level. {image}
Mica,

When trying to learn all this, the failed trades are so valuable, they have the biggest learning opportunity. You know that you read the market incorrectly.

Successful trades can sometimes be misleading. You may have, may have not read the market correctly.

Cheers
  • #4,952
  • Mar 7, 2019 4:54pm Mar 7, 2019 4:54pm
Quoting FoolishGames
{quote} Try looking at the 1hour or htf to get more realistic flag limit levels etc. Theres too many insignificant movements on ltf to be reassured. Otherwise nice entries. As for your position 3, its just placed a tiny bit too high, the most recent high took the stops for that level. I can only tell after the fact, but clearly institutions had enough buyers in the market, and didnt want to take the higher stoplosses because they were planning on going down. Above the area of your position 3 will be many more stops because people now see a clear...
Yea, after reviewing the chart, it appears that it was placed too high up. The turning point of price did took all the stops
  • #4,953
  • Mar 7, 2019 5:28pm Mar 7, 2019 5:28pm
Quoting snipergang
Todays trade. AU short. Engulf of 4hr FL/Demand, wait for retrace, then entry on 15 min QM- 8R. {image} {image}
Wow that's a tiny retrace you may have caught!
  • #4,954
  • Mar 7, 2019 5:41pm Mar 7, 2019 5:41pm
I have no idea how If figured it out. Must have taken in the tens of thousands of hours chart time. Mad respect for him.

Reminds me of this scene in A Beautiful Mind...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLj8WCO-2QI

Cheers
  • #4,955
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:15pm Mar 7, 2019 10:15pm
With more practice, confidence does grow a bit. Really appreciate all the help here...

This is a trade with confirmation. The trade off is to stare at the screen and enter market order.
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  • #4,956
  • Mar 8, 2019 2:15am Mar 8, 2019 2:15am
@TraderNZ can you give me you opinion on this little analysis I tried to do on NZDUSD. Would be much appreciated.
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  • #4,957
  • Edited 4:32am Mar 8, 2019 3:56am | Edited 4:32am
Quoting premiumEntry
@TraderNZ can you give me you opinion on this little analysis I tried to do on NZDUSD. Would be much appreciated. {image}
Hmm... S/D traders hope flags hold. Are we S/D traders? Also zoom out on 1 hour, there was a beautiful long there, it may not respect that 5m flag?

Cheers
  • #4,958
  • Mar 8, 2019 4:11am Mar 8, 2019 4:11am
Red vs. Blue...

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  • #4,959
  • Mar 8, 2019 7:03am Mar 8, 2019 7:03am
Quoting premiumEntry
@TraderNZ can you give me you opinion on this little analysis I tried to do on NZDUSD. Would be much appreciated. {image}
Hi i will try (i never trade NZDUSD i made now an fast painting)
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aka Liquinvest
  • #4,960
  • Mar 8, 2019 8:27am Mar 8, 2019 8:27am
NZD/JPY - For two days, this pair gave good trade.
Both sell and buy worked out well. Both got entered by confirmation. Right now my chart reading is focus on clear levels, what appears messy level would require a great deal of time and effort to figure it out. A reminder for myself every time - Reading only clear level would mean patience, not trade until the chart tells there is. It is kind of counter intuitive and the urge to jump in should be controlled vigorously. It is so hard.
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