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The Really Useless System 25 replies

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The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

The Really Useless Thread

q/q annualized GDP coming
consensus was revised down this week from 2.6% to 2.2%, which is below FED's lower end of central tendency projection for 2019 (but still above their lower end of range though)

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2.6% better than last days expectations but confirming slowdown projections for 2019
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Quoting Replicant
{quote} ...One I like to follow, Juventus FC, is sitting now at important levels...
JUVE broke down a soft support today but in my chart real reversal down will only come with the break of 1.20x (closing there now)
could trigger -20%/-25% if lost

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I like following TSLA too, aiming 19x/20x for the MT (TA wise)

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updating ES on daily:

"aggresive entry" was the right call so far but it looks really doubtful to me, looks too easy and that US-China deal is still pending

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EURUSD H4

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EZ printing its lowest unemployment rate since 2008
EZ overall inflation at 1.5%, that's very decent considering current energy prices and current growth slowdown
Core inflation still struggling though, but I'm still expecting that one to tick up in the year (labour market pressure => wages growth => pushing up inflation)
Manufacturing sector still soft (but that is WW via the clown's trade war impacting global trade)

Overall, and if we include also the last GDPs, EZ data are a mixed bag, slowdown is obviously still there but that doesn't look getting worse.
If EZ economy can hold these levels (paticularly on inflation and employment front), rate path should not be impacted imo, I still see 1st hike by dec19/mar20 (a zero rate policy being not a sustainable policy)

EURUSD H4

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Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i hope your saving for our French Chateau.. {image}
still waiting for my wine.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
ES tasting 2818 today. Crunch time for my map. Maybe you get your 291 @Replicant. Popping corn.
2818 behaving nicely. Watching for NY to close sub 2798. Would be bear enough for me. Looks like it maybe better than that though.
Quoting goosebone
2818 behaving nicely. Watching for NY to close sub 2798. Would be bear enough for me. Looks like it maybe better than that though.
Great call to the tick goose ! I don't have anything in my chart though ; could that flow just bode an upcoming chop zone between [272x;28xx] until that US-China deal pans out (or not), expectations, at the earliest, being for end of March ?

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Quoting Replicant
I like following TSLA too, aiming 19x/20x for the MT (TA wise) {image}
and TSLA hammered on the resistance.
It's at a support right now but looks soft, next ones I have are 274 (main bear target, PT expected) and 260/263 a strong bull support.

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Quoting Replicant
{quote} JUVE broke down a soft support today but in my chart real reversal down will only come with the break of 1.20x (closing there now) could trigger -20%/-25% if lost {image}

JUVE holding 1.20x, no brainer, need to clear UCL last 16 2nd leg first

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EURUSD Monthly

Still in an uptrend, reversal down is out of scope
Both TA level 1.131x and FA level 1.128x held again on Feb close (1.137x)

Nov 2017 SL (15 months old), still holding, breached but never broken

next TA support are 1.108x and 1.095x (extrem), next FA support 1.098x

above, FA resistance is 1.161x ; that one was lost when markets started to price in a 2.25% rate differential last summer (with ECB QE still running and FED's outlook super hawkish)

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EURUSD Weekly

nothingness, accumulation
still in a downtrend, reversal up at 1.182x

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EURUSD daily

Last 2 months ebb and flow are threatening, but strong bull hands look still accumulating around 1.131x (ST Bottom) and have never disappointed so far. Couldn't clear intermediate target at 1.142x/3x (ST Flip) last week, been a dick for a tick on this one (same in EURCHF smh). Still waiting for that reversal up at 1.1570 (extended ST Top) to unlock a wide MT neutral range (1.12/1.18). Policy monetary wise, all clear, don't expect anything at next ECB and FED March meetings (both dovish on rates, neutralizing each other). Slightly better number than expected keep coming from France ; that's no surprise as ongoing protests, which were weighing heavy, are fading away. But more important imo for EZ are potential Brexit deal and US-China deal, that might do the trick for the reversal up.

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EURUSD H4

flow stalled, capped by last reversal down

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Quoting Replicant
{quote} Great call to the tick goose ! I don't have anything in my chart though ; could that flow just bode an upcoming chop zone between [272x;28xx] until that US-China deal pans out (or not), expectations, at the earliest, being for end of March ? {image}
Got the ST fade at 2798. Already some confirmation there and retest. Might take more than one, and certainly may not hold, it's not a hard barrier in my books, just D closes under make me like a break of 2764 better than a break of 2818 (or whever you show that small overshoot of it reached).
Not over yet. Won't be shocked to see your 291. Don't want to. As gator says it would "pee in my cheerios" now that I'm loaded in from just under 2818.
Wide chop is likely. Especially ever since sideways became the new down. I like your MT targets too. 260 and Dec lows seems like a great place for a smaller bull trap to fuel continuation. But that's crystal ball at this point. My whole premise here could be dead wrong. Quite possibly I'll learn that the hard way between 291 and ATH.
As far as China/US news goes I say Trade the Fade deal or Fade the Trade deal however you like it.
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Quoting goosebone
{quote} Got the ST fade at 2798. Already some confirmation there and retest. Might take more than one, and certainly may not hold, it's not a hard barrier in my books, just D closes under make me like a break of 2764 better than a break of 2818 (or whever you show that small overshoot of it reached). Not over yet. Won't be shocked to see your 291. Don't want to. As gator says it would "pee in my cheerios" now that I'm loaded in from just under 2818. Wide chop is likely. Especially ever since sideways became the new down. I like your MT targets too....

lol

The clown would need a Bouteflika-like constitution to stay so long

Quoting Replicant
{quote} and TSLA hammered on the resistance. It's at a support right now but looks soft, next ones I have are 274 (main bear target, PT expected) and 260/263 a strong bull support. {image}
274 cleared in TSLA

Quoting Replicant
EURUSD daily Last 2 months ebb and flow are threatening, but strong bull hands look still accumulating around 1.131x (ST Bottom) and have never disappointed so far. Couldn't clear intermediate target at 1.142x/3x (ST Flip) last week, been a dick for a tick on this one (same in EURCHF smh). Still waiting for that reversal up at 1.1570 (extended ST Top) to unlock a wide MT neutral range (1.12/1.18). Policy monetary wise, all clear, don't expect anything at next ECB and FED March meetings (both dovish on rates, neutralizing each other). Slightly better...
EU tripping at the lows ahead of ECB leaves bulls with very few margin ... smells crunching time ...

Expectations are a dovish ECB, acknowledging a bigger slowdown than expected, highlighting trade tensions and no deal brexit as main threats, but balancing the picture with labour market strength and inflation still holding. Plus, dovish on rates until at least end of 2019.
Timing wise and macro wise, ECB has no reason to say anything else.

As it looks, considering where EU is sitting now, odds for ECB flow visiting 1.11 handle (=>1.118x => 1.112x) are quite high.

! TA wise, a break to lower low won't reshuffle the cards that much if bulls manage to take back 1.128x/1.131x via the bullish combo expected from next week onwards : Brexit deal vote by UK parliament (on March 12, yes = eu bullish) , or no deal brexit vote (on March 13, no = eu bullish) and vote to delay Brexit (on March 14, yes = eu bullish), FED (on March 20, dovish on rates & inflation = eu bullish), US-China deal (end of march, deal = eu bullish)

Meaning we could set the low of the quarter (and year ???) in EU with that ECB flow.
Potentially, by next ECB press conference in June, we will have cleared brexit noise and trade tensions, and will be 6 to 9 months ahead of first rate hike.

In any case, hedging all eu longs for ECB.

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US Trade balance = - 59.8 B
That is the biggest US trade deficit since Sept 2008

Trade war benefit = None.

Bullying the whole world with threats, gangster-like negociations and illegal tariffs have only triggered a global slowdown that is now starting to hit US shores. Economy 101 and reality check for the clown.
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