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CCFp weekly signals (set and forget basket trading)

  • #16,861
  • Feb 12, 2019 7:46am Feb 12, 2019 7:46am
Quoting Contadino
{quote} Hi Jess, removed all filters everything. For the majority of pairs i've got error send order reason 0 What does it means?
Aha!! Yup it's her broker. Let me see there have been a coupec of people that experience that. Most moved on to another broker but I can't recall what they did to wotw with it.

Let me see what I can find in my notes....
J
Our AWESOME IMAGINATION is the true holy grail!
  • #16,862
  • Feb 12, 2019 7:50am Feb 12, 2019 7:50am
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} Well guys I have some unfortunate news. After literally over a year of testing and searching for a profitable and consistent daily basket I have failed. I tested week after week all kinds of settings you could imagine, but nothing was consistent enough to trade daily and make a profit. Some days and weeks were good and some were not, and when adding up and compiling all the data, the baskets had not made a profit long term which showed inconsistency so it was not successful. Looking at the screenshots you can see how many...
Yessssss. Pure gold..real forward testing data is the reality.. not dreamed up ideas.. ideas are good but ya gotta do the work and let the market tell you exactly what to expect for what you think will work...
Our AWESOME IMAGINATION is the true holy grail!
  • #16,863
  • Feb 12, 2019 9:01am Feb 12, 2019 9:01am
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} After literally over a year of testing and searching for a profitable and consistent daily basket I have failed. I tested week after week all kinds of settings you could imagine, but nothing was consistent enough to trade daily and make a profit. Some days and weeks were good and some were not, and when adding up and compiling all the data, the baskets had not made a profit long term which showed inconsistency so it was not successful.
I prefer trading weekly baskets. From my experience trading baskets for over 1-1/2 years, I have seen how the baskets almost always recover from big drawdowns if given enough time. Almost all of my experience has been using the CCFp-Diff indicator instead of the CMSM indicator, which is the one that is used by almost all posters in this thread.

Four weeks ago I started a test using CMSM. I wanted to compare results using the same settings that you and Xmess7 use in your method. The only difference is that I would not use a SL and allow my basket to remain open longer than one day. You close your baskets on the same day. Since I am opening my CMSM basket on Monday, I am only comparing the Monday results that you have posted.

On Monday 28 Jan, you reported a loss of -189 pips. My basket reached a low of -584 pips, but eventually recovered and I closed it a break even for +18 pips 3 days later on Thursday.

On Monday 04 Feb, you reported a loss of -184 pips. My basket reached a low of -528 pips, but recovered nicely and I closed it for +356 pips the very next day.

This week you closed your basket at +16 pips. My basket is still open as I write this. It has gone from a low of -129 pips to a high of +196 pips and back down to its current -75 pips.

I admit this is a very small sample size but I have seen similar swings during my regular trading using CCFp indicator. It is very unnerving to see my real account with real dollars going down more than 500 pips, and quite a relief to see it recover. I just had to learn to trust the basket to recover from the drawdown. I am going to continue testing CMSM weekly and possibly add it to my regular trading if it continues to be profitable.
  • #16,864
  • Feb 12, 2019 9:13am Feb 12, 2019 9:13am
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} Well guys I have some unfortunate news. After literally over a year of testing and searching for a profitable and consistent daily basket I have failed. I tested week after week all kinds of settings you could imagine, but nothing was consistent enough to trade daily and make a profit. Some days and weeks were good and some were not, and when adding up and compiling all the data, the baskets had not made a profit long term which showed inconsistency so it was not successful. Looking at the screenshots you can see how many...
I stopped trading daily baskets because of inconsistent results. After a very good initial period a pattern emerged, that is, several good weeks were often followed by several bad. Still, I think some profit may be made trading daily baskets, depending on method. Yet, I must say your research appears very conclusive, and weekly appears the way to go. Excellent contribution.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #16,865
  • Feb 12, 2019 9:30am Feb 12, 2019 9:30am
Quoting yohec
{quote} I prefer trading weekly baskets. From my experience trading baskets for over 1-1/2 years, I have seen how the baskets almost always recover from big drawdowns if given enough time. Almost all of my experience has been using the CCFp-Diff indicator instead of the CMSM indicator, which is the one that is used by almost all posters in this thread. Four weeks ago I started a test using CMSM. I wanted to compare results using the same settings that you and Xmess7 use in your method. The only difference is that I would not use a SL and allow my...
Looks like I may just go back to the first EA which basically dealt with opening a basket with no TP and SL, and using the ccfp-diff indicator and just letting profit popup.

Looking forward to what your tests reveal in the months to come.

Thnx
Our AWESOME IMAGINATION is the true holy grail!
  • #16,866
  • Feb 12, 2019 9:45am Feb 12, 2019 9:45am
Quoting yohec
{quote} On Monday 28 Jan, you reported a loss of -189 pips. My basket reached a low of -584 pips, but eventually recovered and I closed it a break even for +18 pips 3 days later on Thursday.
Following up on this point I made in my previous post, I see that -189 pips was -10% for your trade. Had you let it run to -584 pips as I did, it would have meant a -30% drawdown for you! That is way too much. In my case it was less than -10% because I am using 50:1 leverage. I can understand why you would close the trade sooner. High leverage can hurt sometimes.

Anyway, I agree with Pippopotamus. Your experimentation and results with daily baskets are very useful information. Thanks for posting.
  • #16,867
  • Feb 12, 2019 10:41am Feb 12, 2019 10:41am
Quoting yohec
{quote} I prefer trading weekly baskets. From my experience trading baskets for over 1-1/2 years, I have seen how the baskets almost always recover from big drawdowns if given enough time. Almost all of my experience has been using the CCFp-Diff indicator instead of the CMSM indicator, which is the one that is used by almost all posters in this thread. Four weeks ago I started a test using CMSM. I wanted to compare results using the same settings that you and Xmess7 use in your method. The only difference is that I would not use a SL and allow my...
I remember when I first found this thread and started to participate (The reason I actually signed up on FF lol) I tested all kinds of weekly baskets. At that time weekly baskets was the main focus and I had 20-30+ different charts going with all kinds of weekly settings and basket settings you could imagine, trying to find the best combination of both.

I tried CCFp on TF, TT, TF, FF, different levels and combinations of each etc, and different basket open times etc, literally hundreds of variations I think. I didn't use any TP or SL back then as I wanted to see and gauge the range that a basket would have in a week. I would strictly run the basket from Monday and close Friday and then compare the results. Attached is an excerpt of one of my weekly test results from late 2017 of some baskets, and you can see how many pips some of them made for that week. On a good week a basket could swing from -700 pips to +1000 in a cpl of days depending on how many pairs were on the list. Things were a lot more simple back then as the EA was not as developed as it is now with so many more options.

The thing though with running these weekly tests with no TP or SL was that it was all on demo and if I saw a basket go down -700-1000 pips I didn't sweat it as it was all demo testing, however in a live account I would never ever let a basket go that far in DD, so it was difficult to find a basket that had acceptable DD and decent profits suitable for live trading.

Then last year I changed my approach to weekly baskets and instead of chasing those monster pip baskets like the guys were doing in 2017, I looked for shorter baskets with lower DD and lower profit, but still a profit non the less. I looked at what I would like to make per week on a basket and what would be an acceptable loss if the SL was hit. This is where I came up with 5.5% TP (.5% for the spread & comms) and 10% SL. So on a good month that could be over +20% profit. Yes the SL of 10% was not the best R:R and one week hitting SL could knock out the potential profits, but we also need to allow room for the basket to breathe and swing, and based on my weekly forward testing results it seemed highly unlikely that it would get hit so frequently.

My weekly approach might not make monster pips, but its safe and is pretty consistent long term. I do miss seeing those weekly baskets with hundreds of pips though but those are not realistic for live trading IMO.

I look forward to seeing your test results and also when you will post more updates about your weekly approach. Cheers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #16,868
  • Feb 12, 2019 12:54pm Feb 12, 2019 12:54pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} My weekly approach might not make monster pips, but its safe and is pretty consistent long term. I do miss seeing those weekly baskets with hundreds of pips though but those are not realistic for live trading IMO.
Exactly, slow and steady is the way to go. Almost all of my winning baskets close between 150 pips to 250 pips, rarely higher. The average win is about 2.5%. I don't hold out for those big pip winners.
  • #16,869
  • Feb 12, 2019 12:59pm Feb 12, 2019 12:59pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} Tuesday basket hit TP. It took some time today, but finally hit profit. This makes it 3 in a row, 1 more week and I will take this live as an extra weekly approach. {image}
The Tuesday basket VB did not trigger so no trade today.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #16,870
  • Feb 12, 2019 1:01pm Feb 12, 2019 1:01pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} I remember when I first found this thread and started to participate (The reason I actually signed up on FF lol) I tested all kinds of weekly baskets. At that time weekly baskets was the main focus and I had 20-30+ different charts going with all kinds of weekly settings and basket settings you could imagine, trying to find the best combination of both. I tried CCFp on TF, TT, TF, FF, different levels and combinations of each etc, and different basket open times etc, literally hundreds of variations I think. I didn't use any TP or SL back...
Great testing mrdfx
  • #16,871
  • Feb 12, 2019 4:14pm Feb 12, 2019 4:14pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} Exactly, slow and steady is the way to go. Almost all of my winning baskets close between 150 pips to 250 pips, rarely higher. The average win is about 2.5%. I don't hold out for those big pip winners.
What is your lots per balance on your 50:1 account? When your -500 pips your down roughly 5%? How many pips are you down before you decide to open your second basket? It seems like I remember you posting your stats and seeing multiple times where you were down -600 to -800+ pips
  • #16,872
  • Feb 12, 2019 7:37pm Feb 12, 2019 7:37pm
So the NZD econews shook the market a bit and stopped out the Pos. trigger basket with considerable slippage. The Neg. trigger basket migrated from a high of 193 pips to trigger a basket at about -300 pips. The team is plowing... The Neg. trigger basket has a position size at 2x that of Pos. trigger basket. We'll see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FOREX.com US.png Size: 94 KB
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #16,873
  • Feb 12, 2019 7:59pm Feb 12, 2019 7:59pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} What is your lots per balance on your 50:1 account? When your -500 pips your down roughly 5%? How many pips are you down before you decide to open your second basket? It seems like I remember you posting your stats and seeing multiple times where you were down -600 to -800+ pips
It is not that simple for me to use a "lots per balance" because the margin requirement will depend on the number of pairs and which pairs specifically. For example, with Oanda with 50:1 leverage, the margin requirement to trade 0.01 lots of EUR/USD is $23. The margin requirement for 0.01 lots of GBP/JPY is $64. So if I look at all 28 pairs, the average is $36 per pair for 0.01 lots. During 2018, the average basket was 12 pairs. So using those numbers, the "average" basket has a margin requirement of $432 per 0.01 lots.

On my real accounts I calculate the margin requirement for all of the pairs suggested by CCFp. Then I calculate the maximum position size based on my account value.

For me, -500 pips is about -10%.

I posted my rules for "2 Baskets System" in posts #13,314 and 13,316. I've made some minor modifications but it is basically the same. I changed the trigger levels for the second basket to:

5 or less pairs: -150 pips
6 - 10 pairs: -250 pips
11- 14 pairs: -350 pips
15 or more: -450 pips
  • #16,874
  • Feb 12, 2019 11:56pm Feb 12, 2019 11:56pm
Hey everyone, I usually don't post, but this EA is probably the first promising EA I've seen. I've been trading for awhile - my biggest successes were back in the spike trading days in 2006 making $50k per trade on ECN and in 2017 banking on GBP after Brexit, but never had too much success with technicals even though I understand the mechanics of mostly all of them. I've got a day job and career now, so this seems perfect for automated trading. I've got $1k on microlots with live Oanda MT4 to test based on my understanding of the inputs and will let you all know how it goes on a weekly basis. So far so good, up 3.1% this month; I'm just looking for 5% per month. I would have exceeded my goal, but starting out last week and playing around with the inputs costed me 2.5%. Thanks for contributing to this winning tool ya'll!
  • #16,875
  • Feb 13, 2019 1:50am Feb 13, 2019 1:50am
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} I remember when I first found this thread and started to participate (The reason I actually signed up on FF lol) I tested all kinds of weekly baskets. At that time weekly baskets was the main focus and I had 20-30+ different charts going with all kinds of weekly settings and basket settings you could imagine, trying to find the best combination of both. I tried CCFp on TF, TT, TF, FF, different levels and combinations of each etc, and different basket open times etc, literally hundreds of variations I think. I didn't use any TP or SL back...
Hi mrdfx, thanks for the huge contribution.
May i ask you, what are you going to do now?
You will continue to test, give up, or go live with something?

Thanks again for the awesome work
  • #16,876
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:11am Feb 13, 2019 9:11am
Wednesday basket VB did not trigger so no trade today.

Monday here we come!
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #16,877
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:13am Feb 13, 2019 9:13am
Quoting Contadino
{quote} Hi mrdfx, thanks for the huge contribution. May i ask you, what are you going to do now? You will continue to test, give up, or go live with something? Thanks again for the awesome work
Hi Contadino, continue to test? Of course! Give up? Never! Go live with something? I've been trading this strategy live for nearly 2 years now lol.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #16,878
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:13am Feb 13, 2019 9:13am
Quoting Contadino
{quote} Hi mrdfx, thanks for the huge contribution. May i ask you, what are you going to do now? You will continue to test, give up, or go live with something? Thanks again for the awesome work
Contadino,
For the most part mrdfx is already live. Many of the "results" he reports on are using a live accounts.

As it had been stated before the presets on pg1 are successful.

The best testing results are captured with live accounts. Back testing and or forward demo testing is basically good for ensuring your approach or an EA is operating properly. There is some merit to forward testing on demos but as is always the case the real circumstance are usually not captured by a demo.

Peace
J
Our AWESOME IMAGINATION is the true holy grail!
  • #16,879
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:23am Feb 13, 2019 9:23am
Wednesday Basket (Demo on US Broker Oanda, low leverage 50:1)

In process of opening another live account. Decided to withdraw funds from previous broker due to suspension of US bank wire transfers.

Below are the settings I used. For the EA use the mrdfx preset. The preset is adjusted to low leverage requirement.

MT4 EA v44.7 (will change to v44.8 soon)

EA: TP: 30% SL: 5%
LotsPerBalance 0.02/500
MaxTrades 6
TakeProfit manual strategy with Manual_lock to begin at 5% to lock 1%. VbVtrigger @ +30pips,.
Basket is closed if I AM ABLE TO SEE PROFIT Or I will manually move lock up 5% for certain levels.

Indicator: CMSM v17.01 level 2@ PERIOD_W1, MA(3,5,MODE_EMA,PRICE_WEIGTHED). MA x [1,2,3,4,8,12]

Profit: 0%
Profit: for the week: +1.26%

Real basket did not trigger. After 3 hours VB profit had tanked and never went above trigger. So decided to hit the reset button and call it a week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oanda_test.jpg Size: 140 KB
Our AWESOME IMAGINATION is the true holy grail!
  • #16,880
  • Feb 13, 2019 12:39pm Feb 13, 2019 12:39pm
Quoting mrdfx
Wednesday basket VB did not trigger so no trade today. Monday here we come!
Hi Mr. Mrdfx are you change you weekly trade level to 2?
If I'm not worng last year trade level for weekly Monday and Wednesday is 4 ?
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