EURUSD

I have a stupid question. If eur/usd has negative correlation to usd/chf and on usd/chf I see on 1h head and shoulder does it mean that eur/usd is going to go up this week? Stoch on 1d eur/usd is on the bottom but not crossed yet and red candles are still having fair size...

Hello
I think you should study eurusd-usdchf better.
trade eurchf.

On Friday, I was banned from the Ata branch, for an elementary remark to a young trader with a red rag. I decided to send everyone with the rags from the Ata branch, to ignor. To distinguish them in our branch, if they come here. To not see them with their crazy schedules.

it doesn't mean anything

EUR/USD can go up or down or nowhere next week, it all depends on what the market does and correlations don't work to predict market movement, if it was that easy, then it would be very simple to make billions of dollars

i got banned from there too for revealing that a scammer was posting on his thread and also for criticizing his trading methods

he can't take criticism and reminds me of the current Turkish president who can't be criticized either since the secret police in Turkey puts journalists in prison

Despite weak data, the euro holds above $ 1.13 due to unidentified demand.

The euro is on its way to its largest weekly decline in the last four months, as data have shown that the slowdown in European growth is spreading across countries, which leads to a decrease in government bond yields. The euro consolidated at a two-week low in quiet trading on Friday. Some traders say that large purchase orders are around $ 1.13, offering currency support.

Due to the fact that this week, China has gone on vacation, market volatility has fallen. Investors summed up the first weeks of the year, and most consensus transactions initiated at the end of 2018 suffered losses. The dollar is expected to weaken in 2019, especially in relation to the euro and the yen. But so far it has grown by more than one percent against the euro and has not changed against the Japanese currency.

The European Commission on Thursday lowered its projections for growth and inflation, as the unexpected decline in German and Spanish industrial orders raised concerns about an accelerated economic slowdown. These data are reflected in the bond markets. Yield on major government bonds in Europe is at its lowest level in the last two years. The benchmark, German yield, is only 10 basis points from zero percent.

Mystery shopper
Despite the weak data, traders did not want to aggressively sell the euro below 1.13 dollars. Having reached a minimum of 1.1323 dollars on Thursday, the euro ended the day at 1.1338 dollars. He was stuck at this level on Friday.
“We are all puzzled over who is the mysterious euro / dollar buyer,” said Kenneth Brau, currency strategist at Societe Generale in London.

One analyst pointed to the presence of large currency options worth nearly $ 1 billion about $ 1.1280, which expires at the end of the day, as another possible reason for the euro's stability. Other traders said that option structures from $ 1.12 to $ 1.16 kept the currency in a narrow range, as banks try to curb volatility. Implied volatility in euros or expected fluctuations in a single currency fell to below 4%, the lowest since late January.

Philip Wee, currency strategist and analyst at DBS, believes that the euro is likely to fall below $ 1.10 this year, given the weaker growth in Europe and the inflation outlook, when compared with US figures.

However, the dollar could not make the most of the weakness of the euro. It was trading slightly higher in relation to its main competitors, as trading tensions remained dominant. Concerns about the global economy also intensified after comments by US President Donald Trump, who said he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before March 1 to conclude a trade deal. This helped spur demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. They hold more confidently against the dollar.

Sterling is also slightly reduced - to the level of $ 1.2941. Traders expect the pound to remain volatile due to the uncertainty associated with Brexit. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar will meet with British Prime Minister Teresa May on Friday in Dublin.

Wheels of bears on EUR / USD were set by the pigeon rhetoric of James Bullard, who said that the federal funds rate should not increase anymore, and the consensus forecast of 62 Wall Street Journal experts about the US GDP slowdown to 2% in the first quarter. In fact, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is the most ardent “dove” of the FOMC, and the Congressional Budget Committee and Morgan Stanley give even worse estimates to the American economy at 1.8% and 1.7%.

I think this scenario will be good.
zone trade.

Monday 11 February
09:30 (GMT) GBP GDP for the 4th quarter (preliminary release)

GDP is considered an indicator of the general state of the British economy. The growing trend in GDP is considered positive for GBP. GDP remains one of the highest in the world in annual terms, although its growth slowed down after the Brexit referendum held at the end of June 2016. In the second quarter, GDP growth was + 0.4% and + 1.2% in annual terms, and in Q3 + 0.6% and + 1.5%. If the data for the 4 quarter will be better than the previous values, then the pound will be strengthened. Forecast: UK GDP growth in Q4 declined to + 0.2% (+ 1.4% in annual terms), which could have a negative impact on the pound, which is already under pressure due to ongoing negotiations between London and Brussels according to Brexit and the remaining probability of the “hard” Brexit, i.e. without any trade agreement with the EU. UK exit from the block is scheduled for March 29.

Last Thursday, the Bank of England kept its current monetary policy unchanged, but lowered its forecast for UK GDP growth in 2019 to 1.2% versus 1.7% earlier, citing a slowdown in the global economy and increased uncertainty around Brexit.

The attention of traders in the new week will attract the publication of important macro statistics from the UK, USA, Eurozone, China, as well as the meeting of the RB of New Zealand devoted to issues of monetary policy.

1.1650 will produce a batt Crab* pattern.

Bullish Morning Doji / shooting star formation on the 1 Hour chart.

I think EURUSD is in downtrend. The price will test 1.13175 first if it breaks then it can move downward.

It's just making an ending diagonal to end the move down...

Oanda charts showing a diagonal triangle, other broker showing tweezer bottom and a shooting star. Got the move down terminating at it's core projection target, I feel these are all signs for the bull to continue, it's still early days for the move up I feel.

Can even throw in 38/50% support for good measure.
Wave counts look nominal.
Now have a morning doji star on the 1 m.
Possible reverse symmetrical triangle in play here on the 1m.

13179 needs to hold or my bull stuff will be invalid.
I'm missing 1 more wave down to 13179..

Update: Possible Ending diagonal in play. The D probably lower than in my picture here. 13179 in play.

May love break the wicks 1317/13/1289 to have new one, not bad if!

If we go lower now, I would think to close buys.

4.1 months
17 Weeks
119 days

1.1300 we never leave this place

My Intraday Outlook.
(ahead London)

New lows. 1.1314 (WS38) bounced a little but the intraday view is still bearish.
Although oversold, the euro fundamental issues seem to be worse than the USD's
so there is no strong reason for a major bounce on EUR/USD so far.


Intraday resistance :
- 1.1324 - 35 - 50
Intraday support :
- 1.1310 - 1.1300(MS1) - 1.1281(WS61.8) - 75(WS1)

Have a great trading day, you all!

I'm not sure if this is a valid reverse symmetrical triangle. It does not look valid for a bear reverse symmetrical but worth noting.
USDX Has touched upper trend line and 10 pips away from a gartley REVERSAL point