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Over complicate - and you lose

  • #21
  • Feb 9, 2019 9:49am Feb 9, 2019 9:49am
Quoting MXT
{image}
Is this at the open session?
Seems a stop hunt (false breakout)

POW!
  • #22
  • Feb 9, 2019 9:53am Feb 9, 2019 9:53am
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} Is this at the open session? Seems a stop hunt (false breakout)
just at the open POW
  • #23
  • Feb 9, 2019 1:48pm Feb 9, 2019 1:48pm
I have heard someone saying, Don't try to pick a needle with a crane. It holds good in trading. Don't over complicate things. Keep it simple, but just be consistent.
  • #24
  • Feb 9, 2019 2:13pm Feb 9, 2019 2:13pm
Quoting hilmy83
Just curious..what's everybody's IQ around here? anybody have taken the mensa test? i'm curious to know what the IQ to pnl graph looks like...
Studies have shown that, at least initially, more intelligent people tend not to be good traders. They have too hard a time with the reality that they cannot "always be right". If you've graduated from Harvard, Yale, Standford, MIT, et all, without ever having received a grade less than an "A", it's difficult to understand that in trading you can be right 4 out 10 (40% -an F in any of those schools) and still make a tremendous amount of money in the markets.

The PNLs we should be looking to compare would show the results of a trader who thinks he knows more than the Market and can beat it, versus the trader who thinks he knows nothing about the Market and is willing to surrender to it, to follow it. Both would be intelligent, but only one is truly smart.............
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #25
  • Feb 9, 2019 2:46pm Feb 9, 2019 2:46pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote}

a trader who thinks he knows more than the Market and can beat it, versus the trader who thinks he knows nothing about the Market and is willing to surrender to it, to follow it. Both would be intelligent, but only one is truly smart.............
bravo my friend , that's a gold nugget and an excellent quote
  • #26
  • Edited 10:19pm Feb 9, 2019 4:27pm | Edited 10:19pm
Process- 1. Watch and wait for setup.
2. Setup arrives - initiate trade
3. trade management system - stop out , BE or hits profit targets
4. Trade closed go to step 1.

OP makes some excellent points and as traders we need to work on an aspect of trading that we prefer - enjoy working on (mines orderflow) , make it yours and then apply it in a simple setup .

I define a setup as a single candlestick or formation that occurs 2 or 3 times in a 100 bar sequence that gives me a low risk entry (profits tend to flow to low risk entries) .

If your not getting the results then you're not following your process or you need to do more work as results are the direct manifestation of the quality of knowledge gained.
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #27
  • Feb 10, 2019 12:06am Feb 10, 2019 12:06am
Quoting dkrock
I guess you never got the memo that past performance is not an indication of future performance. S/R is connecting dead trades together, LOL. That is ridiculous.
Not necessarily. It may as well mark existing orders
Check profile for my blog
  • #28
  • Feb 10, 2019 12:24am Feb 10, 2019 12:24am
Quoting dkrock
As I said, Best of Luck to you and your theories.
Thank you very much, my friend
Attached Image
Check profile for my blog
  • #29
  • Feb 10, 2019 2:25pm Feb 10, 2019 2:25pm
Simplicity comes with acquiring the correct mindset and not chasing the next hyped thing to try.

My charts use to have every shiny object on them, drove me mad.

Simple chart /price action and consistency followed!
  • #30
  • Feb 10, 2019 3:51pm Feb 10, 2019 3:51pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Studies have shown that, at least initially, more intelligent people tend not to be good traders. They have too hard a time with the reality that they cannot "always be right". If you've graduated from Harvard, Yale, Standford, MIT, et all, without ever having received a grade less than an "A", it's difficult to understand that in trading you can be right 4 out 10 (40% -an F in any of those schools) and still make a tremendous amount of money in the markets. The PNLs we should be looking to compare would show the results of a trader who...

One of the most "intelligent" posts I have read here in a long time.. Exactly what my thoughts and experiences are as well.

Reminds me of certain posts that I read ..that I grasp maybe 10% of what is being written.. just paragraphs of complicated ideas theories etc etc...

Then those same people will chastise others for saying trading is simple !!! LoL...

They just can't wrap their 150IQ around the fact that simple is the best... And losses are part of business... Their subjectivity is skewed when looking at a chart ..and complicate what really is a simple business...

Curve fitting the f*** out of EAs yada yada yada... All an utter waste of time and thus why they never move FWD...

Always searching for the perfect Moving Averages... The perfect entry Indi...

NONE EXIST !!!! STOP THE INSANITY !!!!

Me personally ...I like the Weekly charts..also look at Monthlies.. But weekly and drill down to D and 4Hr for entry. Simple PA and patterns... Old school Blue...

SIMPLE does work very well.. but it's not easy and most lack the discipline to methodically stick it out....

Sunday ramblings
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #31
  • Feb 11, 2019 6:49am Feb 11, 2019 6:49am
Although new to this, I completely agree to only having the absolute basics on the chart. For me it's Volumes, EMA (50) and an Oscillator only for divergence. However, I am really struggling with the order of things...

Is S&R more respected by the market or the channels/trend lines? Is there any way we can know in any given time what does the market appear to respect more?
  • #32
  • Last Post: Feb 12, 2019 10:28am Feb 12, 2019 10:28am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} One of the most "intelligent" posts I have read here in a long time.. Exactly what my thoughts and experiences are as well. Reminds me of certain posts that I read ..that I grasp maybe 10% of what is being written.. just paragraphs of complicated ideas theories etc etc... Then those same people will chastise others for saying trading is simple !!! LoL... They just can't wrap their 150IQ around the fact that simple is the best... And losses are part of business... Their subjectivity is skewed when looking at a chart ..and complicate what...
No one knows anything beyond the right hand side of the screen - if all the smart guys/gals with their theories, Lines and flashing lights were really that smart then trading would be easy. Take a best guess -
And then get in the trade and manage it. Keep a journal.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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