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  • #1,148,601
  • Jan 31, 2019 8:52am Jan 31, 2019 8:52am
Guys/gals! I have been reading some posts regarding who is right or wrong and to what degree of certainty we can predict the markets. These kind of back-and-forth arguments won't help new members who desire to learn from this thread. We need to always remember that we deal with probabilities and that we trade differently.

If you make good money trading, I'm happy for you but avoid the temptation of boasting on this forum. Besides, the markets can play some sneaky one on you, so stay humble.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,148,602
  • Jan 31, 2019 8:53am Jan 31, 2019 8:53am
Quoting msniper
{quote} if you are Elliott wave trader and you tell me there is no drawdown prove it to me. how can you know if wave 2 will correct 50% fibo or 61% fibo or even 100% retracement before wave 3 take over and do the impulsive !? if you are not Elliott wave trader and u have super secret analysis that gives u less than 10pips drawdown this would be impressive and I don't care if u nailed it many time in the past. past is past we are the present now so this is the field and we are waiting for your wonderful 10pips drawdown calls and I will be the first...
I know a vast amount of tech' analysis - I could boldly say I know more than any one individual here does - one does not just learn a singular thing after 3 decades, they utilize everything to make ones prediction more robust and founded to pull the trigger... I say this because you will see most of the posts here made by others only use one method of trading. Sadly.

Any way mate, I think you misread my post.

I never stated such thing that E.W.A do not have draw-down - I said it dooes, so your view on what i said is quite the opposite actually and I stated as such re: DD in that post. I mentioned you have to look at other factors on top of E.W.A and not rely on it all by itself, which you seem to do, hence your huge draw-downs.

I'm just saying that if you used E.W.A as a guide, then find confluences; liquidity zones, drilling down a compression to find laser focused sentiment areas, your draw-down would be way way less... that's all

ATB

-------

BTW... to answer your question how to find wave 2 of 5, is pretty simple!

First, count your order block levels to know exactly where the bias/sentiment is.
Second, use HH, LL, HL, LH to see if the sequences have changed to confirm a reversal to form wave leg 1 to 2
Third, locate common fibo retracement levels - then find confluence levels of candle sentiment to predict where price will stop.

If you know the basic's of E.W.A, you will see that each time a corrective wave is made, it does not surpass a harmonic level (more often than not, it'll create an order flow level at 24% and 42% fibo areas - these are your banking accumulation zones), and shoots back up while breaking wave 1's leg's pivot high, once this wave has been broken, wave 2-3 is easily predicable. Then you will know what side the market bias is on.

If the correction is 100% of its move, it will NOT retrace back. The bias will change.

And please don't be silly "past is the past", hello? the past knowledge is what makes us what do we in the future - of course if the analysis we apply works more often than it don't, why would one do something that's the opposite if its working? That logic makes no sense to me


History repeats itself, that's why we always look left before looking right then we cross the road so we dont get run over
Advanced Price Action Trader -MY STUFF IS FREE! JOIN ME!
  • #1,148,603
  • Jan 31, 2019 8:54am Jan 31, 2019 8:54am
Quoting KeenPips
Guys/gals! I have been reading some posts regarding who is right or wrong and to what degree of certainty we can predict the markets. These kind of back-and-forth arguments won't help new members who desire to learn from this thread. We need to always remember that we deal with probabilities and that we trade differently. If you make good money trading, I'm happy for you but avoid the temptation of boasting on this forum. Besides, the markets can play some sneaky one on you, so stay humble. Trade safe and prosper. KP
No body is arguing, we're having a constructive debate on T.A, that's all

ATB
Advanced Price Action Trader -MY STUFF IS FREE! JOIN ME!
  • #1,148,604
  • Jan 31, 2019 9:03am Jan 31, 2019 9:03am
Quoting KeenPips
Guys/gals! I have been reading some posts regarding who is right or wrong and to what degree of certainty we can predict the markets. These kind of back-and-forth arguments won't help new members who desire to learn from this thread. We need to always remember that we deal with probabilities and that we trade differently. If you make good money trading, I'm happy for you but avoid the temptation of boasting on this forum. Besides, the markets can play some sneaky one on you, so stay humble. Trade safe and prosper. KP
The main thing to remember is that we trade what we perceive to be probabilities at a certain moment in time. The `picture`we are looking at can change on a dime. Those who have it in their power (especially the guys who are in control of the algorythms) do their best to give us the wrong impression. Don`t forget: if it looks too good to be true, it usually is.
  • #1,148,605
  • Jan 31, 2019 9:03am Jan 31, 2019 9:03am
Quoting frankjibe
{quote} ouch, this is becoming interesting. So no, I don't know you, but you seem to be an expert. Can you please tell me how often an "head and shoulder" turns to actually deliver what it predicted in the last 10 years? Also there is plenty of rethorical fallancies in your post (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies) ....i.e. you state top 1% can predict....well, if you take top 1% they beat the market by definition otherwise they will not be in the top 1%, still this is saying nothing about the effectiveness of technical...
That all depends if you are asking if the H&S / H&S Inverted formation is in a down-trend, or in an uptrend. Of course a H&S Inverted will not be respected as much in a down-trend and vise versa than a H&S in a down-trend would. That's just basic logic / Pattern recognition.

Question for you.. How do you predict the TP level of a H&S formation once the neck line has been broken? Let's see, because you said no one can predict the market move - So I'm assuming you don't know?

BTW, you can leave your links in your bookmarks, they mean diddly squat on raw experience and wiki-pedia articles aren't always written by professionals - so they should be taken with a grain of salt.
Advanced Price Action Trader -MY STUFF IS FREE! JOIN ME!
  • #1,148,606
  • Jan 31, 2019 9:43am Jan 31, 2019 9:43am
I think H&S IH&S need to terminate at significant highs and lows to have success.

As for targets it is just symmetry as with many other patterns

Traditional TA sucks imo

I'm retired I use the markets to keep my brain cells going

It is by far the most fascinating thing I have ever studied

I have John Murphy's book T A of the Finacial Markets going cheap if anyone wants it.
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #1,148,607
  • Jan 31, 2019 10:14am Jan 31, 2019 10:14am
Quoting sponge
I think H&S IH&S need to terminate at significant highs and lows to have success. As for targets it is just symmetry as with many other patterns Traditional TA sucks imo I'm retired I use the markets to keep my brain cells going It is by far the most fascinating thing I have ever studied I have John Murphy's book T A of the Finacial Markets going cheap if anyone wants it.
Hey, FX is definitely fascinating, what makes it more appealing with the 5.3 trillion on the table up for grabs each day

What do you mean by symmetry. not the definition, i know what it means, I'M referring from a T.A stand point.. how do you know how far it will go, where do you calculate the PIPS to aim for?

BTW, his book is here
https://fxborssa.com/wp-content/uplo...y-fxborssa.pdf
I've not read it. So I can't really comment on it. But I bet I could find some stuff that's a load of bollox. lol I'd be surprised if I can't... So I might give it a read
Advanced Price Action Trader -MY STUFF IS FREE! JOIN ME!
  • #1,148,608
  • Jan 31, 2019 10:16am Jan 31, 2019 10:16am
closed shorts to see if limit 1449 respect or not , if respect bull next may start , breaks 1400 to target next . Take care
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,148,609
  • Jan 31, 2019 10:21am Jan 31, 2019 10:21am
Quoting MrPresident
sell limit 1.149, stop 1.156
The pair is struggling above 1.15, it falls faster than going up

Market is cautious about being bullish
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #1,148,610
  • Edited 10:52am Jan 31, 2019 10:25am | Edited 10:52am
current move looks nice....
Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,148,611
  • Jan 31, 2019 10:51am Jan 31, 2019 10:51am
Quoting FXCyborg
{quote} Hey, FX is definitely fascinating, what makes it more appealing with the 5.3 trillion on the table up for grabs each day What do you mean by symmetry. not the definition, i know what it means, I'M referring from a T.A stand point.. how do you know how far it will go, where do you calculate the PIPS to aim for? BTW, his book is here https://fxborssa.com/wp-content/uplo...y-fxborssa.pdf I've not read it. So I can't really comment on it. But I bet I could find...
I will usually use the right hand side from a top and the left from a bottom but not always.

We have one on 15 min chart atm target 1.1430 but I will consider fibs inbetween
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #1,148,612
  • Jan 31, 2019 10:54am Jan 31, 2019 10:54am
Long 1.1456 .. stop 1.1419 .. target open
  • #1,148,613
  • Jan 31, 2019 11:17am Jan 31, 2019 11:17am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} I disagree. I still reckon price will plummet down sharply and can't see it going any higher to be honest. But I'm not willing to put money on the table until there is more clarity.

Watching 1424 for a long opportunity.
  • #1,148,614
  • Jan 31, 2019 11:25am Jan 31, 2019 11:25am
Quoting HumbleLearne
OKIEE GUYS I AM SHORT NOW AT 1.14947 and going to sleep hopefully will in green when i wake up
GUYS YESTERDAY I WAS SHORT AT 1.14947 STILL IN
  • #1,148,615
  • Jan 31, 2019 11:29am Jan 31, 2019 11:29am
Quoting HumbleLearne
{quote} GUYS YESTERDAY I WAS SHORT AT 1.14947 STILL IN
I'm in with you, just at a better price.
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  • #1,148,616
  • Jan 31, 2019 11:33am Jan 31, 2019 11:33am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} I'm in with you, just at a better price. {image}
cool brother happy for you
  • #1,148,617
  • Jan 31, 2019 12:13pm Jan 31, 2019 12:13pm
Quoting FXCyborg
{quote} That all depends if you are asking if the H&S / H&S Inverted formation is in a down-trend, or in an uptrend. Of course a H&S Inverted will not be respected as much in a down-trend and vise versa than a H&S in a down-trend would. That's just basic logic / Pattern recognition. Question for you.. How do you predict the TP level of a H&S formation once the neck line has been broken? Let's see, because you said no one can predict the market move - So I'm assuming you don't know? BTW, you can leave your links in your bookmarks,...
thank you for the explanation, I have quite some literature on tech analysis but that details are appreciated.
I was anyway just asking for a number. I' d like to know if you can say what has been relaiability of H/S - whatever definition you want to give to it or any other formation you like- in the last 10 years.I'm a professional coder and I did. whoever is using them clearly didn't. That is the only point I was trying to make for everyone's benefit.

On your question, as I've been writing in other posts, I do mathematical trading, so I dont have tp or sl levels, I just have trade baskets and profit target.

Im here suggestin anyone to challenge the conventional, dig into the status quo and ask for statistically significative proofs for every sigle thing you read about technical analysis. I can tell you righ now you will not find there more proofs than about the existence of superpowers.

happy trading everyone, I feel I served giving back to this forum for what I took in the past. To bright minds this should be enough, I'll let you find out the rest. for close minds it really doesnt matter how much logical and fact based my argument will be :their desire to "win" the argument will keep their eyes close. Fine with me, I call it "survival of the fittest". I'll drop this thread here.
  • #1,148,618
  • Jan 31, 2019 12:39pm Jan 31, 2019 12:39pm
Should have just stuck with my short. I think this is the move that's gonna get to 1.13 area. I'm gonna try to find a good spot to get in short again.
I wanna be a billionaire so freaking bad!
  • #1,148,619
  • Edited 2:28pm Jan 31, 2019 2:07pm | Edited 2:28pm
Here you can find my full HEW-update on FF

It looks like we finally saw the darkblue wave-b today (the wave I'm searching for since a week....).... so that means the foundations waves (wave-i and ii) in this bearish move currently are forming.

I saw a lot of Bullish talk and discussion on the thread today.....but also after the big move what happened yesterday....I'm still strongly bearish for the EURUSD....sorry....

In overview:
I think this evening or tonight we will reach the wave a/i (orange) around 1,1424-15. Then we must see tomorrow the wave-b/i possibly around 1,1465-70 and then finally the wave-c/i towards roughly 1.1379 before the correction in wave-ii must form. So the 1,1515 looks to me as the high now...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,148,620
  • Edited 10:45pm Jan 31, 2019 2:31pm | Edited 10:45pm
Quoting HappyMe
Here you can find my full HEW-update on FF It looks like we finally saw the darkblue wave-b today (the wave I'm searching for since a week....).... so that means the foundations waves (wave-i and ii) in this bearish move currently are forming. I saw a lot of Bullish talk and discussion on the thread today.....but also after the big move what happened yesterday....I'm still strongly bearish for the EURUSD....sorry.... In overview: I think this evening or tonight...
OK, mission 1.1300, nice black descending hawk pattern .similarly in gbpusd may be mission 1.3000 next day if all ok!! let's see.
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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