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  • #1,148,561
  • Jan 31, 2019 2:42am Jan 31, 2019 2:42am
Quoting frankjibe
Cognitive bias is the inability to see the reality because there is a strong bias. I abandoned tech analysis long time ago, and that was by fare the best choice of my trading life, but I'm still amazed to see how many cases people just don't see what is in front of their eyes. Using one of last published charts as an example (this message is not - by any mean - directed to the author of that post), I find funny how strong the statement is about USD dropping because of the Head/shoulder formation, but just few bars back there was a very similar setup...
of course you cannot depend on technical analysis and pattern they do fail sometimes but I am confident that USD will be weak for the next 3 weeks at least and we will see DXY going down and that head & shoulder will work.

sometimes u have to correlate other currencies to know where DXY going and by watching EURO and DXY I know that DXY will break that neckline and fall

the question is if DXY break my neckline and start falling what are you going to say ? u will say its just luck ? or u will try to find a reason here and there to justify the drop ?

I said it since November that EURO will reach to 1.17 to 1.20 and in order to reach these numbers the DXY will go below 94 100%
  • #1,148,562
  • Jan 31, 2019 2:45am Jan 31, 2019 2:45am
Quoting FXCyborg
{quote} Mate, more you talk, the more I'm less likely to believe you... 100 pip DD? are you kidding me? That's irresponsible trading. You have a LONG way to go before you can really read price correctly... So it's good that you're still on your Demo account, they're there to practice on. Once you get to my level, you wont see DD's of 100 pips man, or even 600 pips (as you claim yours have been in the past)... most of mine are less than 10 pips and in some cases, my DD is the brokers pip spread and ONE POINT!
Good luck Mate. Seems you are a great trader after all. But by the way I read your post, it sounds amateurs making profits for the first time.

Never mind.

By the way, I don't rely on charts or any indicators. I have received age old formulas from my Grandfather and that's it. According to them, 1517 level is to watch out. I am within the 10pip range of it. I am short EUR for today. I will clear at end of day. It's ok for me. If profits I am humbled, if loss, I will try again. I am never 100 percent right.

Apart from this, I will not respond to any of your comments.

Make fun, be happy, God bless.
Just retired from University
  • #1,148,563
  • Jan 31, 2019 2:47am Jan 31, 2019 2:47am
Quoting msniper
{quote} when you trade using Elliott waves its normal to have a drawdown because the waves can stretch the main point u exit the position with great profit if you want BIG TARGETS then you need to accept BIG DRAWDOWN and if you say that you get not more than 10pips drawdown this is great and professional please share ur trade here so we can see if you are telling the truth about your drawdown limits
My thoughts exactly.
  • #1,148,564
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:03am Jan 31, 2019 3:03am
Come on, guys, don't scare restless teenagers!
We can use morons to get more visibility for this thread! (wow, 100 viewers )
Sane people doesn't care of idiot's attitude, but they will value good traders real work shared here
Member
  • #1,148,565
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:08am Jan 31, 2019 3:08am
No selling sign just yet. Still going with the trend. I'll take a long here at 1.1490. SL 1.1450. TP 1.1549.
I wanna be a billionaire so freaking bad!
  • #1,148,566
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:13am Jan 31, 2019 3:13am
Quoting msniper
{quote} of course you cannot depend on technical analysis and pattern they do fail sometimes but I am confident that USD will be weak for the next 3 weeks at least and we will see DXY going down and that head & shoulder will work. sometimes u have to correlate other currencies to know where DXY going and by watching EURO and DXY I know that DXY will break that neckline and fall the question is if DXY break my neckline and start falling what are you going to say ? u will say its just luck ? or u will try to find a reason here and there to justify...

that by itself is a logical fallance. I can be "confident" on anything I like, but data is what really counts and the fact you predicted something that happened doesnt by itself test your ability to predict, because we didn't keep track of all the time your prediction was wrong. Lastly, "technical analysis fail sometime" is very generic...it migh be very well that they succeed sometimes, and we should measure standard deviation to check if what we are seeing is just random behaviour or something significant. I posted a lecture some days ago, someone really took some time in doing proper measuring on how much technical trading has an edge against random trading. The result is surprising...not only the don't differ in the long run, but random seem to be more stable in return.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3708927/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkna.../#6c1e90855136
  • #1,148,567
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:30am Jan 31, 2019 3:30am
1500 seem a very strong weekly resistance :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Member
  • #1,148,568
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:34am Jan 31, 2019 3:34am
Quoting frankjibe
{quote} that by itself is a logical fallance. I can be "confident" on anything I like, but data is what really counts and the fact you predicted something that happened doesnt by itself test your ability to predict, because we didn't keep track of all the time your prediction was wrong. Lastly, "technical analysis fail sometime" is very generic...it migh be very well that they succeed sometimes, and we should measure standard deviation to check if what we are seeing is just random behaviour or something significant. I posted a lecture some days...
I have never checked any Data or news I only read chart and I trade what I see inside the chart and things been great and successful.

if you are against my idea that euro will fly to 1.20 then u must be a bear. would u mind telling me whats ur bearish targets ? and share with us ur chart analysis. I don't want news or bad data in Europe and Brexit stuff cause I cant understand it. I only understand charts
  • #1,148,569
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:47am Jan 31, 2019 3:47am
Quoting msniper
{quote} I have never checked any Data or news I only read chart and I trade what I see inside the chart and things been great and successful. if you are against my idea that euro will fly to 1.20 then u must be a bear. would u mind telling me whats ur bearish targets ? and share with us ur chart analysis. I don't want news or bad data in Europe and Brexit stuff cause I cant understand it. I only understand charts

this is a pretty generic statement from someone with so much support info. Tell me by when you think you'll hit that 1.20 target and then we can start measuring. I'm sorry, I only understand facts and maths.
  • #1,148,570
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:48am Jan 31, 2019 3:48am
Quoting Miracleforex
Selling 40 standard lots, clear end of day
TP created at 1465
SL at BE at 1507.

Not trading tomorrow. See you Monday.
Chao
Just retired from University
  • #1,148,571
  • Jan 31, 2019 3:50am Jan 31, 2019 3:50am
Quoting frankjibe
{quote} this is a pretty generic statement from someone with so much support info. Tell me by when you think you'll hit that 1.20 target and then we can start measuring. I'm sorry, I only understand facts and maths.
I cannot know the time I don't do time analysis

why do u have dates ? if yes share with us the date and the price u expect to see

price now 1.1490 which one is closer my 1.2000 or the 1.1080 everyone waiting for ?
  • #1,148,572
  • Jan 31, 2019 4:15am Jan 31, 2019 4:15am
Not many timers around but here's mine

I have Feb 11th for a major turn, intra minor Feb 1st /6th

They don't all work on the date sometimes you need to allow +/- so need to use along with TA / confimation
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #1,148,573
  • Jan 31, 2019 4:22am Jan 31, 2019 4:22am
Quoting NuNix
{quote} closed 14 of them right at 1.1505. leave the rest till end of the week. Don't need to analyze the chart. Up or down, I'm happy. but, think that this week will be closed in strong bullish. never make a panic decision, panic will kill your account. ciao... {image}
ok, I change my mind as it seems hourly can't close above 1.1505, meanwhile, it closes below 1.1495.

close them all. open sell 1.1484, stop-loss 1.1520.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,148,574
  • Jan 31, 2019 4:34am Jan 31, 2019 4:34am
Quoting thirdforex
No selling sign just yet. Still going with the trend. I'll take a long here at 1.1490. SL 1.1450. TP 1.1549.
Closed at 1.1475
I wanna be a billionaire so freaking bad!
  • #1,148,575
  • Jan 31, 2019 4:38am Jan 31, 2019 4:38am
buy limit 1.14622
tp 1.15747
sl 30pips
Know The Presence Of The Market
  • #1,148,576
  • Jan 31, 2019 4:43am Jan 31, 2019 4:43am
Short at 1.1476. SL 1.1515. TP 1.13
I wanna be a billionaire so freaking bad!
  • #1,148,577
  • Jan 31, 2019 4:49am Jan 31, 2019 4:49am
Good traders are sharing their trading and their work here!
Member
  • #1,148,578
  • Jan 31, 2019 4:50am Jan 31, 2019 4:50am
Quoting msniper
{quote} I cannot know the time I don't do time analysis why do u have dates ? if yes share with us the date and the price u expect to see price now 1.1490 which one is closer my 1.2000 or the 1.1080 everyone waiting for ?
I'm stating the opposite actually. Market is completely unpredictable and the best approximation to that is a random walk. Lines, candles formations, "feelings" haven't proved more successful than random trading. What is funny to me is that people that are so much into "tec analysis" and that are so much into measuring and data, don't actually measure the rate of success. Generation after generation traders mimic what others have done without really understanding why.

I'd challenge you doing an historical analysis of whatever makes you think that the price will go to 1.20 (or any other value & direction) and come to me with a result that is positive and at least two standard deviation away from purely random. That would be a proof. The rest is guesswork. Just scroll the last 100 posts, you'll see people saying anything and the opposite of it. Guess what...some of them will nail it and will get a confirmation of their thesis...others will look back and either reconsider their assumption finding something that was wrong in their analysis, or archive it as "tech analysis isn't always correct" or "market misbehaviour".

My post is a warning for newbies, that too often spend way too much time trying to understand something closer to alchemy than science and having very little support fact.

Support reading: https://www.amazon.it/Misbehavior-Ma...SIN=0465043577

(no, I don't get any commission from amazon or anything else)
  • #1,148,579
  • Jan 31, 2019 5:00am Jan 31, 2019 5:00am
!.1475 is a thing.

damn too close to my pos.
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #1,148,580
  • Jan 31, 2019 5:03am Jan 31, 2019 5:03am
Quoting msniper
{quote} when you trade using Elliott waves its normal to have a drawdown because the waves can stretch the main point u exit the position with great profit if you want BIG TARGETS then you need to accept BIG DRAWDOWN and if you say that you get not more than 10pips drawdown this is great and professional please share ur trade here so we can see if you are telling the truth about your drawdown limits
I'm really sorry mate...No it's not... You only get draw-down on E.W.A when you don't read the underlining price and previous prices (history) properly. It doesn't matter if you're trading on a 1 Minute or a Monthly Compression... the draw down can be reduced as little as ONE POINT - I've done it many times. And those who I trade along side with do the same too. So I'm very sorry, you're just way off base here mate. More than you care to admit.

Once you understand how to read price correctly in its truest form, you can then use E.W.A to give you an idea where the PRZ is regardless where you place your Fibonacci's.

E.W.A is just a guide, it's not a proven technical - there's only a small handful of E.W Patterns that have the strongest and most reliable outputs of expectations - while the others will break and overshoot the setup. So it has to be taken with a pinch of salt. And this is why you're getting HUGE draw-downs because you rely on them all too much. You're being too linear in your thinking. You gotta be more robust in your breakdowns of T.A and find the confluences, otherwise you're just taking a guess than an educated, well formed educated guess based on what works.

You can NOT rely on once piece of technical to make your choice from, whether that be Supply & Demand (There's several ways to find them), Order Blocks, RBS Flips, SBR Flips, Compression Channels, hidden liquidity zones, etc,etc... You have to combine as many as you can until your analysis tells you the truth that backs up every other element of Tech' Analysis. IF they don't and you still go take the trade on... you're essentially gambling and not trading. Having a 150 lot standard and stomaching a $150,000 draw-down would turn any investor away, regardless if you had a million or a billion in your account - it's just reckless, plain and simple.

But hey, each to their own I guess?

There is no single holy grail of Technical Analysis... However, when you put several pieces together that are showing confluence of events - then and only then do you have something that can come close to the Holy Grail.

And I already did share my "to the POINT" DD here the other day (please dont be so ignorant) - I showed these images live well before the event took place, just ask the others here or read my posts in the GBP/USD thread - it hit the liquidity zone, 0.8 pip draw-down and hit the TP shortly after to the PIP before taking off back the other way to find the other sell zone which got hit again for easy money... that day I made 97.44%.

If you want to see more of my posts in the future - simply subscribe to my F.F profile.

All the best

GL
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