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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #561
  • Jan 27, 2019 3:36pm Jan 27, 2019 3:36pm
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The southward drop of price action in the EURNZD market on the weekly time frame from the high of September 2018 to the low of December 2018 saw a 61.8 Fib tetracement four weeks ago. Since then, bears have manged to make a follow-through and price action is presently located around a support zone (around the 1.66300 area). The technicals are still favorable to bears and the 1.63900 area is a potential target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Jan._27,_2019_W1.png Size: 53 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has retraced to a congestion area and is generally in a consolidation mode. Two descending trendlines, an outer (red) and an inner (black) are potentially acting as resistance. A minor ascending trenline (magenta) is acting as support to recent price action and its break on a daily closing basis is likely to expose the 1.63200 handle. I am bearish EURNZD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Jan._27,_2019_D1.png Size: 56 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #562
  • Jan 27, 2019 3:42pm Jan 27, 2019 3:42pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Since dropping southward and snapping back northward to print a long-tailed candlestick four weeks ago, the northward momentum on the EURJPY has waned. On the weekly time frame, the past three weeks of price action have produced less than 250 pips move to the north. This is a general reflection of the ambivalent nature of the market. But presently price action is located near a resistance zone. We should watch how price action handles that zone this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Jan._27,_2019_W1.png Size: 50 KB


On the daily time frame, after the northward move in early January, price action has largely been sideways in operation. Bulls pushed price action a bit northward last Friday but there is a resistance zone a few pips northward and we may have to see how the zone is handled in the early part of this week. An upward retest of the zone (125.500), followed by a rejection, is likely to produce momentum for a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Jan._27,_2019_D1.png Size: 49 KB


I will be interested in how price action handles the 125.500 area. So, I will step aside from the EURJPY market in the early part of this week.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #563
  • Jan 27, 2019 3:48pm Jan 27, 2019 3:48pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market continues being ambivalent and non-directional. Presently, bulls are still intent on taking price action northward, judging from the candlestick printed on the weekly time frame. However, there is little room for a northward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Jan._27,_2019_W1.png Size: 47 KB


The daily time frame shows a market in consolidation and may be of interest to scalpers and intra-day traders.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Jan._27,_2019_D1.png Size: 46 KB


The H4 time frame shows a northward directional operation of price action. Technically, this may be followed up in the early part of this week. But the 1.14900 area is a potential resistance zone, followed by the 1.15600 zone. I prefer to wait until the bullish mode peters out. Should a rally northward yield to a sell setup at an area of value, this will pique my interest and I will look for a sell trading opportunity offering a profitable reward-to-risk ratio.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Jan._27,_2019_H4.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #564
  • Jan 29, 2019 7:50am Jan 29, 2019 7:50am
Here's a technical update on the EURUSD. Price action is still ambivalent. On the daily time frame, the market is trading around a mini resistance zone. We may expect a southward turnaround in the zone or around the descending trendlines (black and red) from the high of September 24, 2018.

I am still bearish EURUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Jan._29,_2019_D1.png Size: 47 KB


Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The EURUSD market continues being ambivalent and non-directional. Presently, bulls are still intent on taking price action northward, judging from the candlestick printed on the weekly time frame. However, there is little room for a northward drive. {image} The daily time frame shows a market in consolidation and may be of interest to scalpers and intra-day traders. {image} The H4 time frame shows a northward directional operation of price action. Technically, this may be followed up in the early part of this week....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #565
  • Jan 31, 2019 6:08am Jan 31, 2019 6:08am
Here is where I am at the moment

1. EURGBP (daily chart below) - Long
DY: Bullish Engulfing Pattern
DY: Support holding since APR 2018
H4: Bullish Engulfing at support,
H4: 20MA was resistance since pivot high, is now appearing to be support after reaching low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_WB28JAN.png Size: 465 KB



2. GBPCHF (daily chart below) - Short
DY: Box range formed (Confirmed Support/Resistance
DY: Bearish Engulfing, Doji, Dark cloud cover patterns at resistance
DY: Overbought on RSI
H4: Divergence on RSI
H4: Doji and dark cloud cover at last resistance
H4: 20MA was support, is now resistance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF_WB28JAN.png Size: 434 KB
  • #566
  • Jan 31, 2019 6:30am Jan 31, 2019 6:30am
Another direct, sound analysis.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting monit0r
Here is where I am at the moment 1. EURGBP (daily chart below) - Long DY: Bullish Engulfing Pattern DY: Support holding since APR 2018 H4: Bullish Engulfing at support, H4: 20MA was resistance since pivot high, is now appearing to be support after reaching low {image} 2. GBPCHF (daily chart below) - Short DY: Box range formed (Confirmed Support/Resistance DY: Bearish Engulfing, Doji, Dark cloud cover patterns at resistance DY: Overbought on RSI H4: Divergence on RSI H4: Doji and dark cloud cover at last resistance H4: 20MA was support, is now resistance...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #567
  • Jan 31, 2019 6:44am Jan 31, 2019 6:44am
Thank you sir - Fingers crossed it plays out as per plan.
  • #568
  • Jan 31, 2019 8:24am Jan 31, 2019 8:24am
Very good!

KP


Quoting monit0r
Thank you sir - Fingers crossed it plays out as per plan.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #569
  • Feb 3, 2019 3:00pm Feb 3, 2019 3:00pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market apparently still has a northward sentiment. The monthly time frame shows a market still under the control of bulls after the bullish candlestick printed in January 2019 and the immediate horizontal resistance is still at least 200 pips away. Presently, price action is located near the monthly pivot and around the 38.2 Fib zone of the downward swing from the high of October 2012 to the low of December 2015. Should bulls push further northward in the days ahead, how market handles the 1369.00 area is likely to determine where medium-term momentum will sway.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_Feb._3,_2019_MN.png Size: 40 KB


The weekly time frame shows a market in a consolidating ascending channel (black). The channel support was broken southward in July 2018 but bulls took control of the market for a strong drive northwards and returned price action to within the channel in late December 2018. The horizontal consolidation immediately after bulls took price action into within the channel gave way to the printing of a strong bullish candlestick two weeks ago. Although a follow-up bullish candlestick was printed last week, it is apparently weaker than the one printed two weeks ago as bears appeared to be wrestling for market control. We should note the horizontal resistance around the 1333.00 area. Should bulls overcome that area, we may see a momentum for a bullish continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_Feb._3,_2019_W1.png Size: 53 KB


The daily time frame shows a market with a bullish sentiment. Price action has rejected an outer ascending trendline (red) and is respecting a steeper, inner ascending trendline (blue), indicating an increase in bullish momentum. The trendline angle appears to be too steep and we may have price action head southwards for a corrective operation, perhaps to retest a value area before a northward continuation. Such an area is the horizontal support around the 1304.00 area. We should also note that price action is presently located around the 78.6 Fib retracement of the downward swing from the high of April 11, 2018 to the low of August 16, 2018; which is a technical reason for a potential southward retracement.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_Feb._3,_2019_D1.png Size: 63 KB


Technically, I hold a short-term bearish bias on XAUUSD, while my medium-term bias is bullish.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #570
  • Feb 3, 2019 3:13pm Feb 3, 2019 3:13pm
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The markets are generally ambivalent. Last month, the EURAUD market printed a long-tailed bearish candlestick on the monthly time frame. The print indicated a strong bearish intent, the candlestick breaking through two monthly support zones. However, this formation often leads to a northward pullback before any southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_Feb._3,_2019_MN.png Size: 41 KB


Apart from the strong bearish drop five weeks ago, the weekly time frame shows a EURAUD in a sideways operation around an S/R zone. The candlestick printed last week on the weekly time frame is largely an equilibrium candlestick and we may have to wait for the market to show further clarity next week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_Feb._3,_2019_W1.png Size: 43 KB


An ascending channel (red) is indicated on the daily time frame. The channel experienced two southward breakouts recently but, in the main, there is little directional momentum. We may have a northward pullback into the channel in the next few days, perhaps, initially to the immediate resistance zone on the daily time frame around 1.60150. This is what I will be looking forward to seeing, given the pattern on the MN time frame. By extension, we may see a further bullish drive to the monthly pivot, which is in confluence with a monthly resistance zone around the 1.61300 area, before a southward turnaround. Nevertheless, how price action handles the emerging ascending trendlne (black) on the daily time frame should be watched.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_Feb._3,_2019_D1_001.png Size: 55 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #571
  • Feb 3, 2019 3:25pm Feb 3, 2019 3:25pm
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURNZD market is largely ambivalent. The bearish mode of November 2018 was negated by the bullish operation of price action in December 2018, which itself has been sidelined by the bearish print on the monthly time frame in January 2019. Are we going to see a bullish operation in early February 2019? We should note that the Fibonacci pattern of the downward decline from the peak of August 2018 to the trough of February 2017 was at 78.6 Fib in October 2018. Therefore, we may expect a southward continuation at some point, particularly should price action break below the 1.63600 handle, which has held for quite a while.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Feb._3,_2019_MN.png Size: 48 KB


On the weekly time frame, price action broke below an ascending trendline (red) traceable to February 2017 and is now respecting an emerging descending trendline (black) from recent highs. The market is operating around a weekly reaction zone and the technicals are disposed in favour of bears. However, there is limited southward momentum and we may have to wait for the early part of this week to see which direction the market decides to build momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Feb._3,_2019_W1.png Size: 50 KB


On the daily time frame, the long doji candlestick printed on January 3, 2019 has been a controlling influence for quite a while. Price action significantly broke below its low on January 30, 2019. However, bulls took price action northwards for some distance last week Friday. We may see them retest the broken lower part of the January 3, 2019 candlestick and, perhaps, inch further northwards towards the nearby monthly pivot (1.67898) in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Feb._3,_2019_D1.png Size: 51 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #572
  • Feb 3, 2019 3:44pm Feb 3, 2019 3:44pm
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The monthly candlestick print of GBPNZD in January 2019 was an indecision one. This should be seen in the context of the bullish candlestick printed in December 2018 and the fact that the candlestick printed in February 2019 was around a monthly support zone and in confluence with the monthly pivot. A congestion area is also nearby and the technicals are neutral. Therefore, it is likely that we see some limited momentum, or a sideways of price action, on the GBPNZD at the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Feb._3,_2019_MN.png Size: 32 KB


Last week, price action printed a bearish candlestick on the weekly time frame. We should note that this came about after a retest of an ascending trendline (red) traceable to February 2017 which had been breached southward in November 2018. However, the candlestick printed last week has a longer wick at the bottom than the top, meaning that bulls were struggling with bears for market control. Besides, it is located at a monthly support zone. So, we may not have momentum for a southward continuation in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Feb._3,_2019_W1.png Size: 47 KB


The H4 time frame shows a market operating in an ascending channel (black). This is apparently a corrective operation in the context of downward impulse trend. In the last three sessions on Friday, bulls managed to take price action further northward of the breached channel support. However, we should note the horizontal resistance around 1.91000, which may hinder momentum of any bullish drive. However, a break of the channel support is likely to meet some challenge around the 1.86100 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD_Feb._3,_2019_H4.png Size: 54 KB


I am bearish GBPNZD but will wait for the market to show clarity of its intent after Monday or Tuesday. A sell trading setup around the 1.91000 area will pique my interest. Also, a breakout of price action from the channel support on a daily closing basis will equally be welcoming. At any rate, I am not entering the market right away.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #573
  • Feb 8, 2019 9:14pm Feb 8, 2019 9:14pm
Here are my 2 scents.
Tell me what your thoughts are
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD DAILY AND 4HR ANALYSIS.JPG Size: 501 KB
  • #574
  • Feb 9, 2019 3:52am Feb 9, 2019 3:52am
Thanks for posting the trade you took. It will be much appreciated next time that you give us the reason or setup for taking the trade.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting richswiss
Here are my 2 scents. Tell me what your thoughts are {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #575
  • Feb 9, 2019 9:24am Feb 9, 2019 9:24am
I have a bearish mindset on all long term GBP pairs. I am using Elliot Wave theories with standard ABC swings.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD DAILY AND 4HR ANALYSIS.JPG Size: 566 KB
  • #576
  • Feb 9, 2019 10:03am Feb 9, 2019 10:03am
I saw the Elliot wave analysis. In future, may be you can speak briefly on your charts so that more people can benefit from your analysis.

Trade safe and prosper .

KP

Quoting richswiss
I have a bearish mindset on all long term GBP pairs. I am using Elliot Wave theories with standard ABC swings. {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #577
  • Feb 9, 2019 2:47pm Feb 9, 2019 2:47pm
I believe a swing trader should have more pairs or items to trade than an intraday trader or scalper. As a swing trader, I currently have 12 Forex pairs (including XAUUSD) on my watch list. This week, I will start watching 10 additional pairs over the next few weeks before deciding which ones (about 3-5) to add to my current watch list. This week, based on my weekly technical analysis, I will be tracking CADJPY, a pair that that was not my watch list, in addition to four other pairs: EURJPY, EURNZD, GBPNZD and XAUUSD, which are currently on my watch list. My weekly technical analysis tomorrow will be featuring these five pairs.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #578
  • Feb 9, 2019 3:28pm Feb 9, 2019 3:28pm
Thanks for your analysis. I do refer your analysis.... and match with my PA.

May you share some of your charts for coming week.

Thanks
Swagat
  • #579
  • Feb 9, 2019 4:01pm Feb 9, 2019 4:01pm
Thanks mate. The weekly analyses appear on this thread every Sunday just before the market resumes for the week.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting swagat555
Thanks for your analysis. I do refer your analysis.... and match with my PA. May you share some of your charts for coming week. Thanks Swagat
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #580
  • Feb 10, 2019 3:00pm Feb 10, 2019 3:00pm
CADJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The CADJPY market has been operating in a multi-year triangle (red) on the monthly time frame. Most recently, the market has moved further southward to respect a lower descending trendline (black) which gives a price action squeeze within a smaller triangle. In January 2019, the market printed a bullish pinbar on the triangle support but a reaction zone (a horizontal resistance) is about 100 pips away from current location of price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY_Feb._10,_2019_MN.png Size: 52 KB


On the weekly time frame, recent order flow has been under the control of bulls but the market printed an ambivalent candlestick last week. Nevertheless, bulls are still favoured to be influential this week. But how far they can go is the issue. A congestion zone is around the 83.890/84.900 area and may be a challenge for bulls to overcome. Two descending trendlines (black and blue) traceable to the high of June 2015 may be more significant as a resistance zone, particularly should bulls breach northwards the ascending trendline (magenta) from the low of September 2016. But this trendline (magenta) is the support of a broken down ascending channel (magenta) and is amenable to a role flip (a southward turnaround) should price action retest it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY_Feb._10,_2019_W1.png Size: 60 KB


On the daily time frame, last week Monday, price action breached northwards a descending trendline (Yellow Green) from recent highs and then snapped back below it on Thursday to respect it. Technically, the 82.900/83.880 zone is a major resistance zone and we should watch how price action handles the area in the early part of this week. The area is also in confluence with the 68.2 Fib retracement of the most recent swing down on the daily time frame, neglecting the recent false flash crash.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY_Feb._10,_2019_D1.png Size: 61 KB


The H4 time frame shows a market in consolidation but the impulse trend and order flow context favour bears. The space between two descending trendlines (Navy and YellowGreen) from recent highs is acting as a resistance zone and the technicals favour a southward move. However, we may see a brief pullback to the resistance zone within the trendlines or around 83.800.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY_Feb._10,_2019_H4.png Size: 51 KB


I am favourably disposed towards bears on this market but I will wait for a northward pullback to an area of value before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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