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  • #81
  • Oct 13, 2006 2:39pm Oct 13, 2006 2:39pm
Just a last thing, and probably you already know that but a good way to have some news in live:
http://www.tradingfloor.com/en/tradi.../trading_floor
You create a demo account and presonaly after you instal the software just keep the tab "analysis". The news are in direct (8h30 NYT is exactly 8H30
NYT). And for exemple today, the headline on the retail sales report arrive in the same minute that the number itself.

Good weekend for everyone
  • #82
  • Oct 13, 2006 2:47pm Oct 13, 2006 2:47pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Lesson learned: Learn the facts.

I should not have sold USD thinkning Retail Sales number was BAD. I should
have sticked with my 2 week old buy USD for the carry. Even with small mini lot, its earning $50-$150 a day!



Rest will come peacefully once I am darn ready for the next trade.
That's why I, amongst others, respect you.....you're always trying to learn and help people out at the same time......plus you're in the black..........it's still one in the "W" column

But get some rest......it's good for the body and soul. Per the fortune cookie I received at the chinese buffet today (and taped to the bottom of my screen):

"A focused mind is one of the most powerful forces in the universe"

The rest will do your mind good my man
  • #83
  • Oct 13, 2006 3:15pm Oct 13, 2006 3:15pm
No wonder this Retail Sales was a killer to those who went Long upon the release: Its FRIDAY THE 13th!

Have a nice weekend to you all! Its time to GOOF OFF!
  • #84
  • Oct 13, 2006 3:16pm Oct 13, 2006 3:16pm
Quoting learningtheropes
Check out BK.....he doesn't want to waste time with this banter between News and Summit, he just wants more raw data so he can set up more pins to knock down!!!!!

For BK, the market re-open can't come soon enough!!!!

You are a player Burger King

Good week overall, but definitely choppy at times.....hopefully a smoother ride next week. have a good weekend all!!
Love That Burger :
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #85
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:02pm Oct 13, 2006 8:02pm
I went short for EURUSD last night (during the retail sales news), got a clean 30 pips and the system automatically took the profit for me. no regret thought I supposed to get about 50-60 pips if I was still around for the consumer sentiment report(Its better to play safe than to lose all the chance if the price bounce back). Anyway, I went short after putting a lot of things into consideration, seeing that USD kept going strong even when the news against it, looking back at daily chart told me that USD will keep going strong and yes the oil news last week and the fact it is Friday was also taken into account. I was very confident that I didn't even put a stop loss and focus all my trade on that one currency, it sounds risky and stupid but experience told me I wouldn't be that wrong on this...
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #86
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:20pm Oct 13, 2006 8:20pm
This is my trade, it closed right at my target...
Attached Image
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #87
  • Oct 14, 2006 12:26am Oct 14, 2006 12:26am
Quoting BurgerKing
Can anyone explain to me the importance of Lowered Imported Prices?

Other than Fuel, what else should be considered POSITIVE for Lowered Imported Prices?

a) does it imply lower importation demand and therefore more expenditure on "domestic/local" products?
b) the price simply dropped like the Fuel?
c) something else?
d) inflation

any indicator that has "price" as part of the title has to do with one major thing...INFLATION. this goes for CPI, PPI, anything-PI. cause PI stands for price index.

inflation is what the currency market watches. everything comes back to inflation eventually, becaues that is what causes the fed to move interest rates. the fed says outright that price stability is their main objective. they use interest rates to stabilize price (when prices are high, they raise rates) and interest rates are what account for most of a currency's value, especially the dollar. if rates are high in a country, everyone goes out and converts their money so they can invest in that country, and this "demand" is what moves the value of the currency. and that, my friend, is the full circle of why import prices are important
Relax and be happy.
  • #88
  • Oct 14, 2006 8:45am Oct 14, 2006 8:45am
Some further considerations on the topic of inflation and exchange rates:

- as Merlin says, if a country has high inflation this equates to higher rates and increased demand for a currency.
- inflation affects exchange rates, but exchange rates also affect inflation rates (which in turn affect exchange rates, which in turn ... and on and on)
- if inflation spirals out of control, it risks destabilising the economy from all angles and this may be currency negative.
- This week saw signs of firmer economic activity in the US (and with it higher moderately inflationary expectations), while across the pond in Europe, inflation data from France was a shocker, coming in at just 1.5%, suggesting the ECB may have to revise it's already low estimate for headline inflation lower (from 1.8%). Surely, this bad for EUR/USD, right?

Woah, not so fast cowboy. Assume there are two countries (A and B), with equal rates of inflation (say a rate of zero to keep things simple), and say the exchange rate is simply 1:1. Then hypothesise that inflation in country B doubles. Now a can of Coke in country B costs twice as much as in country A. Clever exporters of Coke in country A see an opportunity and start shipping loads of Coke over to country B, while clever importers in country B see the same opportunity and happily take on all these imports, knowing they can sell them at twice the price domestically. This activity increases the demand for country A's currency relative to country B's (country B's importer need to buy country A's coke and so demand more of country A's currency. Meanwhile, country A's exporters receive country B's money and convert it back to their home currency). This Coke arbitrage continues until the exchange rates have moved to 1:2, exactly offsetting the change in inflation. The great Coke arbitrage opportunity of 2006 is no more. So what? Well, note that the exchange rate of the higher inflation country has depreciated in this example. So, higher relative inflation is actually bad for a currency. This is the cornerstone of purchasing power parity (PPP). Thisconclusion directly opposes to the first point, or can the two be reconciled?

food for thought...to be washed down with a Coke!
"Always bet on black"
  • #89
  • Oct 14, 2006 9:07am Oct 14, 2006 9:07am
Quoting abobtrader
(country B's importer need to buy country A's coke and so demand more of country A's currency. Meanwhile, country A's exporters receive country B's money and convert it back to their home currency).
Why does B demand A's Currency if A is being paid in B's Currency?
  • #90
  • Oct 14, 2006 9:58am Oct 14, 2006 9:58am
Hi Bemac...sorry, like a dunce, I complicated the example by having exporters and importers as seperate entitities. I should have just used on or the other.

'Why does B demand A's Currency if A is being paid in B's Currency?'

Importers in country B want to buy the cheap coke from country A and sell it domestically to make a tidy profit. They have to buy country A's currency to pay them for the Coke.

PS - This example would be more exciting if it was Cocaine and not Coca Cola.
"Always bet on black"
  • #91
  • Oct 14, 2006 10:18am Oct 14, 2006 10:18am
Quoting abobtrader
Hi Bemac...sorry, like a dunce, I complicated the example by having exporters and importers as seperate entitities. I should have just used on or the other.

'Why does B demand A's Currency if A is being paid in B's Currency?'

Importers in country B want to buy the cheap coke from country A and sell it domestically to make a tidy profit. They have to buy country A's currency to pay them for the Coke.
  • #92
  • Oct 14, 2006 3:16pm Oct 14, 2006 3:16pm
I love analysis on fundamentals...but I think that sometimes we can go on overload.

Sometimes the Currency does exactly opposite of the news...

So imho, you have to have a balance of analysis, discipline and patience, and experience with price action.

For example, with 1/2 an hour of news analysis (Bloomberg, and Dailyfx), a brief review of past habits with the pending reports, and a conservative strategy, you can make money most of the times.

Friday with the retail sales I use 2 brokers. It does NOT matter which ones.

One did NOT widen the spread. After my analysis I determined that I would not straddle this report because the real history on whipsaw. My research on the above news sites indicated a stronger dollar after all was said and done...so I put a SELL ENTRY ORDER in on one broker. (I did NOT straddle)

On my second broker...this broker widened the market, which is fine. I then let the report come out, and it whipsawed. (I wonder how many get in on the quick movement just to get knocked backed out with a loss...too emotional)

When the price came back down to the entry sell level that I had already set in my other platform I entered with my second broker @ market...nice...no slippage. (This is why I use this broker)

With all of this strategy I made 3 lots @ 10 pips...2 lots @ 21 pips...and oh yeah my entry sell...1 lot @ 25 pips.

The bottom line is it does not take hours and hours of reading and analyzing all this headspinning data to make good trades. I think that is sometimes the problem with TA traders....ANALYSIS OVERLOAD.

I just thought I would say all of this to add something positive and give some of the frustrated traders something to think about.

BTW...please don't ask me who my brokers are...it really doesn't matter. And they are both sponsors of FF anyway.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #93
  • Oct 14, 2006 3:52pm Oct 14, 2006 3:52pm
market is always a step ahead, actually is looking the other way, analist expect a cut on inteterst rates, when some are still waiting for a haike.late data dont support a cut but brings some concern about inflation

the medicine is making effect (rate hikes) that gives confidence to U.S. economy.
bad news is good news. meaning the so called "soft landing" also latin american markets are taking soft landing as a positive sign because U.S. is their main bussines partener.
So if future rate cuts came becuase the fed consider that is time to re-start growing that will be good for dollar.
But if rate cuts came as a consecuence of a incipiente recession. that will be bad, very bad
so will have to look to the big picture and not be simplistic. some times good news is bad news and the other way.
and some times any news is good and the other way, it depends how it contributes to the general sentiment of a currency
well, thats what i belive
Argue with your wife, not with the market, it´ll always win
  • #94
  • Oct 14, 2006 8:23pm Oct 14, 2006 8:23pm
I think some of you analyze things too much that it sounds very complicated. Maybe it is just my opinion. I prefer something simple but can give me a good $$$

I normally put TA and FA data into consideration before trading, but not too much of them as what matter for me is the current trend. The previous NFP would be enough to tell us that TA and FA data can be useless sometimes.
I am just here to talk nonsense =D
  • #95
  • Oct 15, 2006 2:57am Oct 15, 2006 2:57am
Drcole1, where can I find those news analysis on Bloomberg or Daily Fx ? These are not forecasts but analysis after the reports?
  • #96
  • Oct 15, 2006 4:40am Oct 15, 2006 4:40am
Quoting Trial
Drcole1, where can I find those news analysis on Bloomberg or Daily Fx ? These are not forecasts but analysis after the reports?
No Trial...these are prerelease reports that give you insight into what the numbers will mean.

On the Retail sales report Bloomberg indicated that the number that was really going to mean anything was the one that excluded gas and auto numbers. Those numbers came out bad....and the market whipped up.
The underlying numbers were much better and this is what Bloomberg said. With that in mind selling the GBP/USD AFTER the fact was what to watch for.

You can just go to Bloomberg site and Dailyfx site and snoop around. Get to know how to find these reports. This is what I did.

There are also other sites that offer good information. There is a fundamental section on Forexstreet that is good, etc. etc.

The point is that you need to educate yourself to your level of ability and then structure a TRADING PLAN for each trade. Yes, you will lose sometimes, but with good money management you will hang in there and begin seeing growth in your account. Don't follow the crowd....they are the ones losing.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #97
  • Oct 15, 2006 2:15pm Oct 15, 2006 2:15pm
Quoting drcole1
I love analysis on fundamentals...but I think that sometimes we can go on overload.

.....

BTW...please don't ask me who my brokers are...it really doesn't matter. And they are both sponsors of FF anyway.

DC
And since most don't like reading entire threads, they'll never figure it out!!!

  • #98
  • Oct 15, 2006 2:20pm Oct 15, 2006 2:20pm
Quoting drcole1
You can just go to Bloomberg site and Dailyfx site and snoop around. Get to know how to find these reports. This is what I did.

There are also other sites that offer good information. There is a fundamental section on Forexstreet that is good, etc. etc.

The point is that you need to educate yourself to your level of ability and then structure a TRADING PLAN for each trade.

DC
Why can't you experienced, successful traders just spoon feed us noobies, after all somebody helped you along the way!!! Why do you expect me to do all this work?? Why do I have to reinvent the wheel? What kinda doctor are you anyway?? Where is Bloomberg's site? What is Forexstreet? Is that www.com??

Forgive me doc, I just couldn't help myself. Slap my hand: "bad trader".
  • #99
  • Oct 15, 2006 5:18pm Oct 15, 2006 5:18pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Why can't you experienced, successful traders just spoon feed us noobies, after all somebody helped you along the way!!! Why do you expect me to do all this work?? Why do I have to reinvent the wheel? What kinda doctor are you anyway?? Where is Bloomberg's site? What is Forexstreet? Is that www.com??

Forgive me doc, I just couldn't help myself. Slap my hand: "bad trader".
Man, I have wanted to say it but you did ! ! LOL
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #100
  • Last Post: Oct 15, 2006 6:30pm Oct 15, 2006 6:30pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Why can't you experienced, successful traders just spoon feed us noobies, after all somebody helped you along the way!!! Why do you expect me to do all this work?? Why do I have to reinvent the wheel? What kinda doctor are you anyway?? Where is Bloomberg's site? What is Forexstreet? Is that www.com??

Forgive me doc, I just couldn't help myself. Slap my hand: "bad trader".
LOL.
LOL.



I just refuse to give them the fish. They MUST learn to fish for themselves.

Can I help them along the way? I hope so. But the only people who will be helped are those who will learn and do it for themselves. If someone wants me to do it for them they have no hope for true success.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
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