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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #79,841
  • Jan 23, 2019 12:27pm Jan 23, 2019 12:27pm
Quoting pensivepanda
Was anyone expecting such a huge reversal at this point?
Not before we cleared the stops @ 110, no. I still believe we'll see another run @ or through 110 this week. Recent pivot around 109.4xx doesn't seem like a bad place to long with that expectation. Stop in the low 109's offers great R:R. Good enough for me to take a measured bet.
  • #79,842
  • Jan 23, 2019 8:31pm Jan 23, 2019 8:31pm
Testing hourly Bull TL. Either a bounce/spike through 110.xx or a slow grind down to 108.9xx.

Still bullish biased
  • #79,843
  • Jan 23, 2019 8:35pm Jan 23, 2019 8:35pm
This pair bearish. Going down to 108.000 area.
  • #79,844
  • Jan 23, 2019 8:43pm Jan 23, 2019 8:43pm
Question why it does not go down further giving the fact now the shut down will hurt the economy
  • #79,845
  • Jan 23, 2019 8:47pm Jan 23, 2019 8:47pm
Quoting dk58198
Question why it does not go down further giving the fact now the shut down will hurt the economy
Because the BoJ is supporting USD to weaken the Yen
  • #79,846
  • Jan 23, 2019 9:06pm Jan 23, 2019 9:06pm
The forex "markets" are supposedly free-floating, but in practice all we have are Central Bank policy tools expressed through "markets".

Heck the SNB prints Francs from nothing to sell to purchase dollars, supporting, USD, which it in turn uses to purchase US equities. This accomplishes the two-fold purpose of defending "King Dollar", while artificially supporting the S&P/DOW policy tool of the Fed.

If you are still using standard fundamental or technical analysis good luck...

Better to target psychological stop levels that enhance policy tool price targets.
  • #79,847
  • Jan 23, 2019 9:27pm Jan 23, 2019 9:27pm
Quoting Mwfinad1211
The forex "markets" are supposedly free-floating, but in practice all we have are Central Bank policy tools expressed through "markets". Heck the SNB prints Francs from nothing to sell to purchase dollars, supporting, USD, which it in turn uses to purchase US equities. This accomplishes the two-fold purpose of defending "King Dollar", while artificially supporting the S&P/DOW policy tool of the Fed. If you are still using standard fundamental or technical analysis good luck... Better to target psychological stop levels that enhance policy tool price...
Thank you for explaining
  • #79,848
  • Jan 23, 2019 10:19pm Jan 23, 2019 10:19pm
Quoting Mwfinad1211
The forex "markets" are supposedly free-floating, but in practice all we have are Central Bank policy tools expressed through "markets". Heck the SNB prints Francs from nothing to sell to purchase dollars, supporting, USD, which it in turn uses to purchase US equities. This accomplishes the two-fold purpose of defending "King Dollar", while artificially supporting the S&P/DOW policy tool of the Fed. If you are still using standard fundamental or technical analysis good luck... Better to target psychological stop levels that enhance policy tool price...
Not right about stop loss. You always use stop loss even if you have to stretch it a bit. It is psychologically easier. If you are a scalper than sure you open a trade and let's say you are targeting 10 pips but 5 pips stop loss. If it gets to 5 pips loss than you close it. Even than I would recommend to always use stop loss to protect the profit. When you enter the position at the right place you will profit. Technical analysis, price action is the best strategy for retail traders. There is no other way. IF you are trading strictly news than you are just gambling. That is a fact. Every trader uses technicals, banks, financial institutions and so on. Every trader, investor use it.
  • #79,849
  • Jan 24, 2019 10:39am Jan 24, 2019 10:39am
Well said I agree
  • #79,850
  • Jan 24, 2019 11:03am Jan 24, 2019 11:03am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Not right about stop loss. You always use stop loss even if you have to stretch it a bit. It is psychologically easier. If you are a scalper than sure you open a trade and let's say you are targeting 10 pips but 5 pips stop loss. If it gets to 5 pips loss than you close it. Even than I would recommend to always use stop loss to protect the profit. When you enter the position at the right place you will profit. Technical analysis, price action is the best strategy for retail traders. There is no other way. IF you are trading strictly news...
I don't think you understood what I was saying... I never said not to use a stop. That would be stupid... what I said was to target where retail traders have their stops, for profit targets. Most retail traders trade a basic level and haven't put much if any multidimensional thinking into their strategy so they trade only price. Its like amateur poker players who play only the cards they are given. If you are good at poker, you play your opponents AND your cards. Its the same with trading. News is simply a catalyst for price to move. Large buyers/sellers know which side they want to be on BEFORE news comes out. The news event is just the liquidity providing event to fill their positions. Hence target and trade the psychology of other (usually) retail traders. Their stops are usually in obvious locations. Hence easily exploited. When combined with Central Bank price targets it becomes even easier.

I said yesterday that 109.4xx was a good level with a reasonable stop to target the stops above 110.

110.xx soon to clear all the retail short stops.
  • #79,851
  • Jan 24, 2019 11:13am Jan 24, 2019 11:13am
Quoting Techanalyst
This pair bearish. Going down to 108.000 area.
I wouldn't mind trying some longs near 108.50, even for a scalp....seems far away, maybe next week...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #79,852
  • Jan 24, 2019 11:19am Jan 24, 2019 11:19am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
{quote} . 110.xx soon to clear all the retail short stops.
perhaps, then what, where do we stop....I have 110.65 market as a spot to try some shorts....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #79,853
  • Jan 24, 2019 11:42am Jan 24, 2019 11:42am
Quoting Mwfinad1211
The forex "markets" are supposedly free-floating, but in practice all we have are Central Bank policy tools expressed through "markets". Heck the SNB prints Francs from nothing to sell to purchase dollars, supporting, USD, which it in turn uses to purchase US equities. This accomplishes the two-fold purpose of defending "King Dollar", while artificially supporting the S&P/DOW policy tool of the Fed. If you are still using standard fundamental or technical analysis good luck... Better to target psychological stop levels that enhance policy tool price...
one of the most quality comments regarding this issue. btw the price begs for 110 and beyond. have open buy with SL 109.30 TP open
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #79,854
  • Jan 24, 2019 11:45am Jan 24, 2019 11:45am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} perhaps, then what, where do we stop....I have 110.65 market as a spot to try some shorts....
Hard to say where the price stops. Depends how many stops are above 110 and how far momentum carries. I can't predict tops or bottoms. Ive learned that the hard way lol

Edit to add: I could be wrong. I'm far from infallible, however 110 is what psychology and probability tell me.
  • #79,855
  • Jan 24, 2019 11:50am Jan 24, 2019 11:50am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} perhaps, then what, where do we stop....I have 110.65 market as a spot to try some shorts....
I would be trying at 111.45 region..
  • #79,856
  • Jan 24, 2019 11:55am Jan 24, 2019 11:55am
the only thing that worries me is the 10y yield, today in red ( -1.7%)
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #79,857
  • Jan 24, 2019 12:26pm Jan 24, 2019 12:26pm
Quoting Mwfinad1211
{quote} I don't think you understood what I was saying... I never said not to use a stop. That would be stupid... what I said was to target where retail traders have their stops, for profit targets. Most retail traders trade a basic level and haven't put much if any multidimensional thinking into their strategy so they trade only price. Its like amateur poker players who play only the cards they are given. If you are good at poker, you play your opponents AND your cards. Its the same with trading. News is simply a catalyst for price to move. Large...
I see what you mean. True.
  • #79,858
  • Jan 25, 2019 12:09am Jan 25, 2019 12:09am
Kind of surprising that even with all this bullish strength we haven't hit 110 yet. Getting bored waiting to take profit.

I'd even be nervous under normal circumstances considering price action if I didn't suspect BOJ put a floor on this market targeting low 111's...

Regardless, looking to close longs as soon as 110 is breached and bullish momentum slows.
  • #79,859
  • Jan 25, 2019 3:27am Jan 25, 2019 3:27am
sticky area up here, important hour this one, bulls have to shit, or get off the pot....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #79,860
  • Jan 25, 2019 3:59am Jan 25, 2019 3:59am
The daily 200 SMA is aroeund 111 level, but there are restiances between 110.30-110.70 area.
A lot of direction depends on US stocks.
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