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Trading Made Simple

  • #93,441
  • Jan 22, 2019 7:11am Jan 22, 2019 7:11am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} {image} if you trade M15 and had taken that trade setup, you should have exited that trade. {image}
Hi can you sahre yours indicators and template from this post, thanksin advanced
  • #93,442
  • Edited 7:49am Jan 22, 2019 7:26am | Edited 7:49am
@Tekkies

Here´s another TDI buy signal i took on EUR/USD M15. But what about the "longer term trend". H1 candle at time of the M15 crossover not closed yet + the candle before was bearish one. Overall EUR/USD for me seems to be in sideways/down trend state if looking at H4, Daily... doesn´t matter?

If you trade such signals it seems to me like you have a 50/50 chance at BEST, nothing better... Looking back on what ever chart i can find 1 of such setups which did not work under the same conditions at time of the signal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No matter how good the TDI angle, price action, market structure or the longer term trend looks like. So i ask my self, where is the "edge" here exactly?

See this:

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  • #93,443
  • Jan 22, 2019 9:07am Jan 22, 2019 9:07am
Quoting amiralifx
live trading buy gbpusd h1 @ 1.29215 sl: 1.28900 tp:1.29833 {image}
exit with +34 pips
  • #93,444
  • Jan 22, 2019 9:24am Jan 22, 2019 9:24am
Quoting lddd
@Tekkies Here´s another TDI buy signal i took on EUR/USD M15. But what about the "longer term trend". H1 candle at time of the M15 crossover not closed yet + the candle before was bearish one. Overall EUR/USD for me seems to be in sideways/down trend state if looking at H4, Daily... doesn´t matter? If you trade such signals it seems to me like you have a 50/50 chance at BEST, nothing better... Looking back on what ever chart i can find 1 of such setups which did not work under the same conditions at time of the signal. {image} {image} No matter...


Iddd, are you sure trading is really for you?

Perhaps there is something else you are skilled at in life

I say this because you have been at this for a while and are still making the most basic or error's. Those are not the same market conditions.
From looking at the points you marked it took me two seconds to see that on one entry the TDI was under the 32, and on the other the TDI was approaching the 50

You should know by now what it means about sentiment when the TDI is below 32. It's been mentioned many many times.
  • #93,445
  • Jan 22, 2019 10:43am Jan 22, 2019 10:43am
Quoting kain775
{quote} Iddd, are you sure trading is really for you? Perhaps there is something else you are skilled at in life I say this because you have been at this for a while and are still making the most basic or error's. Those are not the same market conditions. From looking at the points you marked it took me two seconds to see that on one entry the TDI was under the 32, and on the other the TDI was approaching the 50 You should know by now what it means about sentiment when the TDI is below 32. It's been mentioned many many times.
Where does it says TDI has to be below/above these levels? Even if they are always at the same levels i can show you a setup that failed for another setup that worked, it will be still 50/50 at best. Feel free to proof me wrong and go back through past price action for what ever market for at least 1 year for exactly the same TDI signal and you will see what i mean.

If you think these are basic errors i make, okay your opinion. I never said i am a technical chart analyse expert. I am continously learning, so if you feel bored by my questions why not just ignore them?

By the way, technical analyse is no proofed science bro, so you cannot even say that i am doing somethig wrong. Otherwise please show only 1 "signal" which resulted into same results since markets exist until today? If this would be there, we would be all bleeding money...
  • #93,446
  • Jan 22, 2019 11:28am Jan 22, 2019 11:28am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Where does it says TDI has to be below/above these levels? Even if they are always at the same levels i can show you a setup that failed for another setup that worked, it will be still 50/50 at best. Feel free to proof me wrong and go back through past price action for what ever market for at least 1 year for exactly the same TDI signal and you will see what i mean. If you think these are basic errors i make, okay your opinion. I never said i am a technical chart analyse expert. I am continously learning, so if you feel bored by my questions...



It's been mentioned many times about the 32 level in this thread and also likica's thread.
I'm sure i've seen emmanuel mention it several times also.
It's also mentioned in many other indicator threads [with levels] that when the indicators start to reach their extremes do not open a counter trend trade.

if you get a valid setup where it worked under the 32 level it was a low probability trade with a low chance of success. If low probability setups are what you want then continue to take buy setups under the 32 level.

You are asking for one "signal" that works. TDI signals are worth NOTHING unless they are accompanied by the correct price action.
  • #93,447
  • Jan 22, 2019 1:46pm Jan 22, 2019 1:46pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
USDCAD Jan 22 M15 pre-NYO A risky M15 TDI cross now. You trade against the H1, H4 and D1 and that 50EMA below current PA. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Week 04 Jan 22 M15 NYO.png Size: 38 KB


Let's review what happened to that M15 TDI cross above. Why was that risky?


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Week 04 Jan 23 M15 NYO update0515.png Size: 62 KB


Observe how price reacted at M15 50EMA and H1 10EMA.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #93,448
  • Jan 22, 2019 1:54pm Jan 22, 2019 1:54pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Where does it says TDI has to be below/above these levels? ...

Quoting eelfranz
Last night I was reviewing one of Dean Malones videos (the creator of the TDI Indicator). He recommends only taking trades if: Long Trade Entry: Green crossing above the 50 line, above yellow, above red. Short trade Entry: Green crossing below the 50 line, below yellow, below red. This is the safest rules for entry into a trade using the TDI. Go to your charts and look for these conditions....
watch those videos on the TDI by its creator.
Post#2748 in the old thread.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #93,449
  • Jan 22, 2019 2:05pm Jan 22, 2019 2:05pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} It's been mentioned many times about the 32 level in this thread and also likica's thread. I'm sure i've seen emmanuel mention it several times also. It's also mentioned in many other indicator threads [with levels] that when the indicators start to reach their extremes do not open a counter trend trade. if you get a valid setup where it worked under the 32 level it was a low probability trade with a low chance of success. If low probability setups are what you want then continue to take buy setups under the 32 level. You are asking for...

what I did say was:

Traders Dynamic Index aka TDI is just one of those fancy names created for marketing reasons to sell, sell, sell,.......

Ask yourself why use 68-level and 32-levels on the TDI?

Why not simply use the most common defaults in the RSI like 70 and 30 levels.

Is 68 more accurate than 70 and is 32 more accurate than 30?

Long before the TDI was MA on RSI not long after J Welles Wilder developed the RSI. MA on RSI later became Fozzy-RSI.

John Hayden did not invent the Fozzy-RSI. He wrote that RSI book.

Before him was another well know trader/author/coach ... in the 1970's

Read this book
RSI: The Complete Guide by John Hayden [download]

learn price action trading and you never have to worry about depending on any technical indicators in future.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #93,450
  • Jan 22, 2019 2:19pm Jan 22, 2019 2:19pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
USDJPY Week 04 Jan 22 Tomorrow is big event for UJ, I have targets below. We shall see if it triggers 109.25 for sell. {image} Hope you all got some good trades so far and make money. Good night.

USDJPY Week 04 Jan 23 update:

It made a new day low 109.14 but did nit close below 109.25 so no trigger to sell. A lot of orders must have been filled in the last 5 hours.
How this week will close will determine the market type for next week.

Today is big day with BoJ events.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Week 04 Jan 23 D1 BPP targets.png Size: 31 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FF BoJ news jan 23.png Size: 52 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #93,451
  • Edited 5:49pm Jan 22, 2019 5:34pm | Edited 5:49pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} {quote} watch those videos on the TDI by its creator. Post#2748 in the old thread.
Yes i know all the videos. Also i know about the 68 and 32 level on the TDI indicator. I also agree with you it doesn't much matter if you look at this or a standard rsi.

My point was simple. Even if it will increase the chances respecting the overbought/oversold levels its still a 50/50 at best. So i would not agree with kain or anyone else saying this will drastically make any impact on the quality of a trade like that it will become "high probability" instead of "low probability".

Price action is probably the most important part to get right on no matter what signal you will receive by any indicator you can put on a chart.

However the problematic with price action is pretty much the same i feel with any indicator, there is no real continuity in it.

Let's say you trade completely naked without any indicators by only focusing on price. How do you create any repeating procedure you can follow on a daily base leading to constant probability (besides the facts of any money management or emotional factors).

So your "entry signal" for your naked trading strategy is then maybe to find a special candle stick pattern like a Doji, Hammer or maybe a chart pattern like a double top, double bottom or a head and shoulders (doesn't matter what).

Now how do you know the Doji Candle that gave great results last day will give the same results tomorrow? You probably looked back at past price action to calculate how many times since markets are open for trading this Doji setup for the time frame you wish to trade gave X percentage winning rate right?

The second problem is, even if you found out now this Doji setup gave a 60% winning rate on average here. How do you repeat this for tomorrow? You as "manual" trader will try to do the same but you are not a computer. It's almost insane to believe you will also get this 60% winning rate with cherry picking such Doji setups.

And last but not least what about support and resistance levels which are continuously changing too? Market condition which is continuously changing? Fundamentals may also play in. Otherwise you will trade these "price action" patterns in a isolated fashion.

You only have to make any little mistake in your "manual analyse" here and what ever you calculated and "hoped" for becomes invalid, boom.

So isolated price action trading is even more "subjective" and harder to build any routine from you can make use of in the long run, emotions that may change on a daily base not even included.

I am sorry to say that, but a lot of you guys here seems to be pretty naive thinking they could make constant profitable trading results with randomly doing something they can not even backtest or make any detailed explanations how they will repeat this day in day out. So if such backtests are not possible for what ever reasons and results will depend only on price action and market conditions you should at least be able to explain how you repeat this if you don't know what the market will look like tomorrow.
  • #93,452
  • Jan 22, 2019 6:01pm Jan 22, 2019 6:01pm
Quoting kain775
{quote}TDI signals are worth NOTHING unless they are accompanied by the correct price action.
Wonder if this thread would grow so big did BigE made that statement the first sentence in the first post in this thread.
  • #93,453
  • Jan 22, 2019 6:38pm Jan 22, 2019 6:38pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Where does it says TDI has to be below/above these levels? Even if they are always at the same levels i can show you a setup that failed for another setup that worked, it will be still 50/50 at best. Feel free to proof me wrong and go back through past price action for what ever market for at least 1 year for exactly the same TDI signal and you will see what i mean. If you think these are basic errors i make, okay your opinion. I never said i am a technical chart analyse expert. I am continously learning, so if you feel bored by my questions...
Iddd
The advice Kain gave you about 78/38 would have been the same from me. Asked you to read TDI Cross.pdf where the same advice is given. Whether a order will go into profit or not is beside the point. Kain's advice is most likely based some painful loss he suffered because he was thinking like you.

Couple of post's back you ask me to explain to you why I said "Don't trade." here Kain said "Don't trade" Reading your response is going to be a attempt in futility to even to try and explain the reasons for "Don't trade".

Please find a forex trader nearby you for hands on live coaching.
  • #93,454
  • Jan 22, 2019 10:39pm Jan 22, 2019 10:39pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes i know all the videos. Also i know about the 68 and 32 level on the TDI indicator. I also agree with you it doesn't much matter if you look at this or a standard rsi. My point was simple. Even if it will increase the chances respecting the overbought/oversold levels its still a 50/50 at best. So i would not agree with kain or anyone else saying this will drastically make any impact on the quality of a trade like that it will become "high probability" instead of "low probability". Price action is probably the most important part to get...
Quoting kain775
{quote} It's been mentioned many times about the 32 level in this thread and also likica's thread. I'm sure i've seen emmanuel mention it several times also. It's also mentioned in many other indicator threads [with levels] that when the indicators start to reach their extremes do not open a counter trend trade. if you get a valid setup where it worked under the 32 level it was a low probability trade with a low chance of success. If low probability setups are what you want then continue to take buy setups under the 32 level. You are asking for...

You are asking for one "signal" that works. TDI signals are worth NOTHING unless they are accompanied by the correct price action.

Here, read this book "High Probability Trading Techniques for Trading without Indicators" [download]

It takes me 15 seconds to strip a chart down to nothing including the TDI & Stoch's. Taking clean trades is a breeze for me...why? Post#2617

Read the book and you will know why.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #93,455
  • Jan 23, 2019 2:34am Jan 23, 2019 2:34am
Thanks for all your help guys.

I know about the indicators facts and price action in general, however i will read through all this again and again.

The reasons for the pain i suffer has probably more to do with finding a constant routine i can follow with such strategy.
Everything described by BigE within the TMS strategy and most of what you told me mainly focuses on the right indicators condition and/or
the correct price action picture.

What i feel missing is how to build any real "trading plan" out of this chaos can be repeated every day.

I know markets are looking different each new day and you cannot predict what they will look like tomorrow, how does price action look, what is the condition like a trending, range-bound or consolidating market.

Not even that, then there are multiple time frames and when ever you think you got things right and post some winning results you will most likely hear from people: - "Hey, well done!".

But if the trade failed, you most likely hear:

- "Hey, you missed that there is support or resistance" or
- "Hey, you missed that H4/Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart is in a down trend, so why do you go long".
- "Hey, you missed that there is support or resistance"
- "Hey, you missed there is bank holidays today"
- "Hey, you missed there is XYZ what you did wrong"

And then i ask my self for e.g, "I trade plan/execute/exit my trade for only a few pips on a lower time frame like the M15", so why looking at all this information? Can it get even more complicated?

What also makes it hard is the fact most currency pairs i can and would like to trade nearly not moving at all, not even on a tick chart you can try to learn price action without wasting a lot of time doing nothing only waiting for some condition to establish".

So you maybe go back to past price action (what else option you have..) and study old charts like suggested by BigE.

I did all that, but it didn´t really help me to solve even 1 of the problems i will have under live market trading conditions, all the questions come up again.
  • #93,456
  • Jan 23, 2019 2:50am Jan 23, 2019 2:50am
Quoting Tekkies
Please find a forex trader nearby you for hands on live coaching.
Good idea, is there some "traders-job-offers24-near-by-me.com" where you could find such traders?

I live near to Berlin and there is not one person i know or heard of working as a "professional" trader no matter if on a retail base trading his own money or for some bank/hedge or what ever for at least some years with proven constant profitable results.

Probably if such people really exit they would have also something better to do instead of coaching/mentoring any newbies.

I mean i would even spend a lot of money for this, traveling or what ever but there is nothing...

Only some online marketers and self claimed "experts" trying to make money from you.
  • #93,457
  • Jan 23, 2019 3:30am Jan 23, 2019 3:30am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Good idea, is there some "traders-job-offers24-near-by-me.com" where you could find such traders? I live near to Berlin and there is not one person i know or heard of working as a "professional" trader no matter if on a retail base trading his own money or for some bank/hedge or what ever for at least some years with proven constant profitable results. Probably if such people really exit they would have also something better to do instead of coaching/mentoring any newbies. I mean i would even spend a lot of money for this, traveling...
Ask your broker.
Is Frankfurt close, then go to Stock Exchange.
Iddd online tutor of any kind won't help much. (You have to many questions). The person must be able to look over your shoulder or you sit right next to him while he is trading. (Would not know if he will survive all the questions)
  • #93,458
  • Jan 23, 2019 5:18am Jan 23, 2019 5:18am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote}(Would not know if he will survive all the questions)
Haha.
  • #93,459
  • Jan 23, 2019 7:54am Jan 23, 2019 7:54am
Follow the rules of the method in use.
- M15 crossover.
- H1, Stoch confirm direction
- Long term down / short up
- Top entry below Resistance
- Bottom entry below Resistance
- Below area of consolidation
- Bar are not clear
- Wicks are long and mostly top side
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #93,460
  • Edited 10:10am Jan 23, 2019 8:08am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting pips29
{quote} bad choice I think
Attached Image


and TP!

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