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Retail Sentiment Fallacy? 19 replies

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Attachments: US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment
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US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

Quoting summitfx
I don't make predictions. I only trade the obvious. I think anyone who follows this market would agree that the $ is bullish and that there will be some short term profit taking soon unless we seem some fundamental -$ at which point the $ will reverse. Duh! I enjoy your posts- keeps me in the grins

Hey- I posted this in the "What really works" thread

It's as simple as going long when the currency is rising and going short when the currency is falling. Any system or indicator you use will only be profitable if you use it coreectly. Ever notice how all of the indicators rise and fall with price!This is my contribution~hope it helps![img]images/smilies/wink.gif[/img]
<!-- / message --><!-- sig --> __________________
Right and picking the "when" is just as simple as that huh? You're kidding right? Did you go long in the EURO when it was rising right after the report?

You can't make money in forex without a good opinion about what the smart money is doing. What I've said may be obvious to you, but it isn't to many people, especially the newbs. Let me give u a subtle point that may not have been so obvious regarding yesterday's Trade Balance number.

We saw the dollar get shorter when the number was first released then gain strength. I'll give you my opinion of why this happened and u tell me what you think.

IMHO-the trade bal doesn't really amount to much as it pertains to the US economy. When the EUR and GBP gained after the release, what we saw was all the professional money that has been long the $ since last friday protect their positions by buying more $'s. It didn't retrace because of some candles, charts, fibs, EW's, resistance levels, profit taking or any other reason but that.

We got people posting trades they made after the retail number was released based on candle counting! Ridiculous IMHO even if they made a couple of bucks. It spiked up because of a mis-reading of the number; when it became established that the sales were very strong, the $ moved as it should have. The market read it wrong to begin with, then corrected based on a correct reading of the info, just like what happened last week with the jobs number.

This was an excellent trade for anyone who waited, listened to bloomberg, heard the full analysis then did the right thing. The EUR was still in the 40's 2 minutes after the release.
I'm at a loss for words Newstraderfx-You got this shit figured
out bro' Go have some Fun- there's more to life than Economics!

Take shit for example..
Well, shit.....

Shit may just be the most powerful word in the English language. You can be shit faced, shit out of luck, or have shit for brains. With a little effort, you can get your shit together, find a place for your shit or decide to shit or get off the pot.

You can smoke shit, buy shit, sell shit, lose shit, find shit, forget shit, and tell others to eat shit and die. Some people know their shit while others can't tell the difference between shit and shineola.

There are lucky shits, dumb shits, crazy shits, and sweet shits. There is bull shit, horse shit and chicken shit. You can throw shit, sling shit, catch shit, or duck when shit hits the fan.

You can give a shit or serve shit on a shingle. You can find yourself in deep shit or be happier than a pig in shit. Some days are colder than shit, some days are hotter than shit, and some days are just plain shitty.

Some music sounds like shit, things can look like shit, and there are times when you feel like shit. You can have too much shit, not enough shit, the right shit, the wrong shit or a lot of weird shit. You can carry shit, have a mountain of shit, or find yourself up shit creek without a paddle.

Sometimes everything you touch turns to shit and other times you swim in a lake of shit and come out smelling like a rose. When you stop to consider all the facts, it's the basic building block of creation. And remember, once you know your shit, you don't need to know anything else!

Trade what you see - Not what you think
Quoting summitfx
I'm at a loss for words Newstraderfx-You got this shit figured
out bro' Go have some Fun- there's more to life than Economics!

Take shit for example..
Well, shit.....
Sounds like George Carlan to me. Is it?
I think it probably is- found it on this site http://www.jokefile.co.uk/
I was looking for a little jonny joke for the newsman lol
Best I sign out for the weekend-Cheers All

Quoting Bemac
Sounds like George Carlan to me. Is it?
Trade what you see - Not what you think
How did u become such an authority on shit? Which market should I use to trade shit? Are you bullish or bearish on shit? Where can I get more info on shit? Is there a shit website? Is the supply of shit rising or falling? Is there a difference between US shit, Chinese shit, NZD shit etc? Is there a future for me in shit? What do you use shit for? Should I continue to flush my shit? Do they sell shit on EBAY? Should I start a shit thread? Why does corn show up in shit? Do YOU have your shit together-if so what do you use to hold it together with? If it smells like shit and looks like shit is it really shit? Does your shit smell?
I digress..
Who's in charge?

All the organs of the body were having a meeting, trying to decide who was in charge.

"I should be in charge", said the brain, because I run all the body's systems, so without me nothing would happen".

"I should be in charge", said the blood, "because I circulate oxygen all over, so without me you'd all waste away".

"I should be in charge", said the stomach, "because I process food and give all of you energy".

"I should be in charge", said the rectum, "because I'm responsible for waste removal".

All the other body parts laughed at the rectum and insulted him, so in a huff, he shut down tight. Within a few days, the brain had a terrible headache, the stomach was bloated, and the blood was toxic.

Eventually the other organs gave in. They all agreed that the rectum should be the boss.

The moral of the story?

You don't have to be smart or important to be in charge... just an asshole
Trade what you see - Not what you think
Finally, the most disgusting site on the internet just for you News-

http://www.ratemypoo.com/

Summitfx's final post at FF~
Trade what you see - Not what you think
Quoting NewstraderFX
How did u become such an authority on shit? Which market should I use to trade shit? Are you bullish or bearish on shit? Where can I get more info on shit? Is there a shit website? Is the supply of shit rising or falling? Is there a difference between US shit, Chinese shit, NZD shit etc? Is there a future for me in shit? What do you use shit for? Should I continue to flush my shit? Do they sell shit on EBAY? Should I start a shit thread? Why does corn show up in shit? Do YOU have your shit together-if so what do you use to hold it together with? If it smells like shit and looks like shit is it really shit? Does your shit smell?
ROFL
The little rascals were in school one day. The teacher asked spanky to use the words "different" and "today" in the same sentence so spanky said "I want to do a different thing today". Very good said the teacher.
She asked alfalfa to use the words "something" and "today" in a sentence and alfalfa said "I want to learn something today". Very good said the teacher.
Then she asked buckwheat to use the words "dictate" and "today" in a sentence. Buckwheat turned to darla and said "darla, how my dic-tate today?"

Have a nice week end!
Quoting NewstraderFX
This was an excellent trade for anyone who waited, listened to bloomberg, heard the full analysis then did the right thing. The EUR was still in the 40's 2 minutes after the release.
I have a terrible feeling that the forex market of today is moved by just what Bloomberg says...no matter how irrational to traders who are not listening to Bloomberg they are.
Today's retail sales was one and the revision on the NFP was another last week.

Based on this, I predict there will be more irrational moves to come in the future, their subscription fee will keep going up, fat men will keep getting fatter, and suckers will keep getting slaughtered.
Good one NewstraderFX!!!
Quoting NewstraderFX
Why does corn show up in shit?
everything shows up in shit, its just the yellow is easy to spot LOL
Relax and be happy.
Quoting summitfx
Summitfx's final post at FF~


summit quit trying to use FF to drive traffic to your shit website! this is considered spam dude!! LOL
Relax and be happy.
I want to start by saying that I don't think that the bullish period for the dollar this last week was really justify.

However, for the first time, I think that the retail sales report is really a positive point for the dollar. The number itself is sure not a good one (and the dollar went down the first minute) but when you read the detail you can see that it is not really what it seems to be.

First, only 2 on the 13 sector are down ("gasoline stations", who represent 10% of the total of the retail sales, it's down by -9,3% and " food and brevage stores" by -0,3%), for the other sector, "clothing" up by 3%, five sector up by 0,8% to 1,1%, three are up by 0,2% and another one is stable. However, "building material & garden eq and supplies dealers" is up by 0,6%. In a context where the home market is suppose to go down, the expense in house furniture resist quite well I think.
In general, this rapport is a good one because if you forget the number of the gasoline (58$ by barrel is not a price you see every day), the retail sales look really good.

Secondly, the consumer didn't save the money he had economised on the gasoline. It's where the consumer sentiment of today is important, the consumer is happy, so he spend his money even on some sector who should have some "difficulty" like "home furniture". In an economy where one of the most important part of the GDP is the consumer spending, the growth perhaps is slowing down but at a rythme who are better than expected and the slow down of the house market has a relative small impact on the consumption.

The big question will be the core CPI, next week(not really PPI I think). In an environement where the consumer spend more than anticipate, it can increase the pression on the inflation (thing that many fed's president have said).
In conclusion, the economy grows at a rythme probably better than expected, with presure on the inflation, that mean no decrease of the interest rate this year (and probably before a long time), and most important, the question of on more increase this years come back on the table.

Anyway, that is my opinion and forgive me for my english (who are not my native language) and for the length of this reply.
Where in the Internet do we get to know the details on Retail Sales?

ie, I want to know the components of it when it is released... sure beats knowing what is happening when trying to fade it.

BLS does not seem to have this piece of number online.
http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/fulpubwk.html
and sorry, the exact adress for the report (it's just the number) :
http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html
Quoting BurgerKing
Where in the Internet do we get to know the details on Retail Sales?

ie, I want to know the components of it when it is released... sure beats knowing what is happening when trying to fade it.

BLS does not seem to have this piece of number online.
Check out BK.....he doesn't want to waste time with this banter between News and Summit, he just wants more raw data so he can set up more pins to knock down!!!!!

For BK, the market re-open can't come soon enough!!!!

You are a player Burger King

Good week overall, but definitely choppy at times.....hopefully a smoother ride next week. have a good weekend all!!
Can anyone explain to me the importance of Lowered Imported Prices?

Other than Fuel, what else should be considered POSITIVE for Lowered Imported Prices?

a) does it imply lower importation demand and therefore more expenditure on "domestic/local" products?
b) the price simply dropped like the Fuel?
c) something else?
Quoting BurgerKing
Can anyone explain to me the importance of Lowered Imported Prices?

Other than Fuel, what else should be considered POSITIVE for Lowered Imported Prices?

a) does it imply lower importation demand and therefore more expenditure on "domestic/local" products?
b) the price simply dropped like the Fuel?
c) something else?
BK, I wish I knew the above stuff, but an economist I am not.........however, I just wanted to say to you again, that you are the man!!!!!!! Market is closed and your researching like a mo' fo'.......love ya man!!!

Get a little rest please?!
Quoting learningtheropes
Check out BK.....he doesn't want to waste time with this banter between News and Summit, he just wants more raw data so he can set up more pins to knock down!!!!!

For BK, the market re-open can't come soon enough!!!!

You are a player Burger King

Good week overall, but definitely choppy at times.....hopefully a smoother ride next week. have a good weekend all!!
I was an IDIOT trying to BUY EURUSD and GBPUSD earlier THINKING that it was just market sentiment that the USD rallied. Lost some money on those stupid longs.

Im still in the black for the day though but I WAS STUPID to trade blindly!

Lesson learned: Learn the facts.

I should not have sold USD thinkning Retail Sales number was BAD. I should
have sticked with my 2 week old buy USD for the carry. Even with small mini lot, its earning $50-$150 a day!
Quote
Get a little rest please?!

Rest will come peacefully once I am darn ready for the next trade.
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