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Trading Made Simple

  • #93,141
  • Edited 5:11am Jan 15, 2019 4:56am | Edited 5:11am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Iddd Based on what you have posted. H1 - TDI green cross red up, stoch confirm direction D1 - TDI and Stoch confirm direction. See how many false H1 crossover the D1 TDI has canceled out. Look at the GBP/USD you posted: - Long term trend is up. - That entry is placed on the short term trend. - Few bars left a small Resistance. - W1 is in a strong uptrend (not part of TMS H1 stoch is already approaching OB.) I would put a trailer stop on that trade it is not going down far. {image}
Yes thanks Tekkies, thats exactly the problem. Sure you can filter out a lot of bad trades like this way but thats exactly what is leading me to the question how to make serious amounts of pips each week if you probably end up in a month thanks to brexit not even giving you 1 valid signals according to all rules per day.

So you end up trading against the trend just to make some pips at all or you need to monitor a dozens of other markets at the same time.

OR you need a win ratio of almost 100% and never ever hit a few losing trades in a row.

The GU trade is currently 40 Pips in profit by the way. So i would say this is already a lot to expect from a M15/H1 trade. So even if this is a trade against the trend you are almost FORCED to take this trade because if you look to the left such moves are rare to find. So how long to you want to wait and watch your charts for the month to end up in some pips profit if there are simply not enough entry setups respecting all rules.

Sure if you donīt have any goals or pressure to make money here this is easy to compensate but what if not?...
  • #93,142
  • Jan 15, 2019 5:17am Jan 15, 2019 5:17am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thats what i was meaning. And in times of brexit you even find less of such trades... So i asked how people able to keep beeing constantly profitable in terms of (making serious amounts of money worth spending the time in front of the screens) you need to invest here obviously to filter out these huge amounts of false signals you get here on just one chart. If you then even try to day trade this with 10 different charts open, well good luck... If you say H4/Daily gives far better results here. I just looked back on GU for the last month...


Big E traded H4 but he was an aggressive trader taking both with trend and counter trend trades. Most likely he was getting more than 3 trades a month

but to anyone who is getting 2-3 trades a month who hopes to use forex to support himself i would recommend a starting balance of at least Ģ40k GBP.
unless someone is pretty well off and happens to have that kind of money lying around, you cannot expect to do forex for a living trading 2 or 3 times a month.

the higher up the tf's you go the less trading opportunities you get so the more likely you are to be pushed into counter trend trading to make ends meet
  • #93,143
  • Jan 15, 2019 5:20am Jan 15, 2019 5:20am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Iddd Based on what you have posted. H1 - TDI green cross red up, stoch confirm direction D1 - TDI and Stoch confirm direction. See how many false H1 crossover the D1 TDI has canceled out. Look at the GBP/USD you posted: - Long term trend is up. - That entry is placed on the short term trend. - Few bars left a small Resistance. - W1 is in a strong uptrend (not part of TMS H1 stoch is already approaching OB.) I would put a trailer stop on that trade it is not going down far. {image}
Could you explain why the Daily here should have canceled out the last short signal i took? To me, the last daily candle printed is red/bearish one. So for me there is no reason why i should not take a short signal i get on H1/M15 here.

If you wait here until the daily chart has formed more red bearish candles before taking any short signal you probably end up never ever beeing able to enter.
  • #93,144
  • Jan 15, 2019 5:46am Jan 15, 2019 5:46am
Quoting kain775
{quote} Big E traded H4 but he was an aggressive trader taking both with trend and counter trend trades. Most likely he was getting more than 3 trades a month but to anyone who is getting 2-3 trades a month who hopes to use forex to support himself i would recommend a starting balance of at least Ģ40k GBP. unless someone is pretty well off and happens to have that kind of money lying around, you cannot expect to do forex for a living trading 2 or 3 times a month. the higher up the tf's you go the less trading opportunities you get so the more likely...
Yes thats right. Based on my manual trading account capital i would need to make at least 5% per month to cover the most important expenses for everything (so have a living in case of no luxury goods but everything paid).

So actually nothing better than working full time in the industry somewhere with nearly ZERO risk instead your are not doing something completely stupid or getting sick.

But i cannot see any way so far to be able to solve this by trading the TMS strategy. No matter what time frame. With only taking the A+++ setups booking you in maybe a 200-300 Pips on H4 for e.g i would not even able to cover half of the costs while trading full lots on these few setups per month.

So you have to monitor a dozens of more markets like many doing here. Which leads to a lot of other problems, which leads to a lot of time spend in the end again (even if you trade H4).

Trading only one currency pair like GU on a quicker timeframe you need far higher amount of VALID setups per week to end up positive by the end of the month. And how realistic to catch up with all these setups perfectly on time? Its still a lot of chart time needed here otherwise you miss out such signals or you donīt make enough pips by the end.
  • #93,145
  • Jan 15, 2019 6:07am Jan 15, 2019 6:07am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Could you explain why the Daily here should have canceled out the last short signal i took? To me, the last daily candle printed is red/bearish one. So for me there is no reason why i should not take a short signal i get on H1/M15 here. If you wait here until the daily chart has formed more red bearish candles before taking any short signal you probably end up never ever beeing able to enter.
Which post, which chart, which entry?
  • #93,146
  • Jan 15, 2019 6:46am Jan 15, 2019 6:46am
Quoting okoso
{quote} Hi Emmanuel, My BPP also said sell EZ this week, so opened my first position on Monday open and as I am still trading MEME manually, I had my next sell limit just under H1 resistance at around 1.6880 which was not filled, so I am not in the money yet, while you have made some goods pips already. Game manual trading vs auto trading? Can you explain to me what are the red and blue "moving average looking" lines on your chart are? Thanks, okoso {image}

Hi okoso,

Your ME2 limit order is too far away and did not get filled. Did you use 0.5 ADR as the ME order distance?
You can consider using 0.25ADR when the market is narrow range and the retracement is shallow.

The blue line is not moving average. It is a 2 x ADR(10) distance from the last highest Close and when the price did not make higher Close, this price level remains horizontal. I use this in BP planning to help visualize the market type condition.

Below my updated charts with 2 more positions closed earlier with some profits. Will keep following the price action to see if there will be break lower and I would consider increasing my position sizing.

I am looking at 1.6700 as the next target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD Week 03 D1 trade update02 Jan 15.png Size: 40 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #93,147
  • Jan 15, 2019 6:53am Jan 15, 2019 6:53am
Quoting AkronD
{quote} If you look at the last hour or so EU / GU / AU have all moved almost 20 pips. If you were to trade TMS - shouldn't people be in those trades?

You don't need TMS to be in those trades.

I am in all 3 pairs with locked in profits.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #93,148
  • Jan 15, 2019 7:25am Jan 15, 2019 7:25am
It was a challenge to short GBPCAD and make 40 pips.

First we have news environment every one in the globe is waiting for it. Second PA on Daily is in an obvious range and price is in the middle of it (middle of no where).
However, TMS for me is to try to make pips in such environment. At least this is what I hope for and why I am here. I want to take the trades that are not obvious or those that couldn't be easily taken by any strategy with PA. I want to trade the small fluctuations on H4/H1 within bigger structures.
see below

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADDaily.png Size: 23 KB


For me this would be a trading challenge and is great for practising the TMS system. I want to find pure TMS setups and not to try influence my trading strategy into it.

Any way, On H4, Price found small Resistance at 50 fib and then I observed TMS crossing down. Note that the entry candle is the one with the TMS cross. So the cross did not occur in the previous candle. Stochastic was good.

see below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADH4.png Size: 29 KB


I went to M5/M15 where I found a two candle rejection to a trend line and a long wick in M15, so I shorted where the blue vertical line is.
see below M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADM5.png Size: 29 KB


It went well for 40 pips with a stop of 26.
  • #93,149
  • Jan 15, 2019 7:47am Jan 15, 2019 7:47am
CADCHF

I went long on the 11th and exited first target and the second one is still running. I entered based on PA with some indis.

Any way, I thought of checking this last move with TMS to see if it would have given a signal or not on the H4 retest to the daily breakout.


Starting with daily, it may make a slight difference how you would draw the trend line so either it is a break out or a pre-breakout.
see below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADCHFDaily.png Size: 26 KB


On H4: we had a retest to the TL. Now, watch the entry candle where TDI was crossing. Same example as previous post. The cross did not occur at previous candle.

see below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADCHFH4.png Size: 28 KB


On H1/M15 London session started at the second vertical line, so the entry would have been there with the break of the small LTF TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADCHFM15.png Size: 25 KB
  • #93,150
  • Edited 8:21am Jan 15, 2019 8:07am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting kain775
{quote} Big E traded H4 but he was an aggressive trader taking both with trend and counter trend trades. Most likely he was getting more than 3 trades a month but to anyone who is getting 2-3 trades a month who hopes to use forex to support himself i would recommend a starting balance of at least Ģ40k GBP. unless someone is pretty well off and happens to have that kind of money lying around, you cannot expect to do forex for a living trading 2 or 3 times a month. the higher up the tf's you go the less trading opportunities you get so the more likely...

Based on what I have read from his posts, Big E did not restrict himself iOn H4 TFs. Actually he did trade H1 at any session. Yes, you read right. He said that when he does not find setups on H4 he moves to H1.

From my observation, I have found good pip movements on non Asian session pairs. you may find EURCAD is moving for good 30-40 pips for example.

Iam not promoting for trading in low volatile sessions because our biggest enemy is low volatility. But if you watch Asian session for example, you will find some moves at certain hours through the session. The move could take half an hour for example and that's it.

Big E did advise traders to record and write down those hours during the day when there is relatively high volatility at any session.

I have noticed this before I read his posts but have not traded this that much. It is not an easy decision to make for any trader.
  • #93,151
  • Jan 15, 2019 8:16am Jan 15, 2019 8:16am
A question here to TMS traders with NZDCAD

Would you take this trade or wait for a break of H4 TL?


On Weekly, price bouncing off TL

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADWeekly.png Size: 25 KB


Daily, Price reacting to a smaller TL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADDaily.png Size: 21 KB


H4, Would you wait for a break or trade now?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADH4.png Size: 22 KB
  • #93,152
  • Jan 15, 2019 10:13am Jan 15, 2019 10:13am
Quoting lddd
but do you really think this will help anyone one bit here?
Would not know Iddd. Maybe, Maybe not.
Know the method, learn the method, follow the rules and somewhere after many chart hours and many tears (despair) you will succeed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1012019Dinsdag rule.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #93,153
  • Jan 15, 2019 10:37am Jan 15, 2019 10:37am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Would not know Iddd. Maybe, Maybe not. Know the method, learn the method, follow the rules and somewhere after many chart hours and many tears (despair) you will succeed. {image}
Your entries are based on PA, not the TDI. You may not be aware of it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #93,154
  • Jan 15, 2019 10:39am Jan 15, 2019 10:39am
Quoting mtharwat
CADCHF I went long on the 11th and exited first target and the second one is still running. I entered based on PA with some indis. Any way, I thought of checking this last move with TMS to see if it would have given a signal or not on the H4 retest to the daily breakout. Starting with daily, it may make a slight difference how you would draw the trend line so either it is a break out or a pre-breakout. see below {image} On H4: we had a retest to the TL. Now, watch the entry candle where TDI was crossing. Same example as previous post. The cross...
Carefull Iddd is going to post that you also only posting winning trade's.
===
Nice trading mtharwat.
  • #93,155
  • Jan 15, 2019 10:43am Jan 15, 2019 10:43am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Your entries are based on PA, not the TDI. You may not be aware of it.
How come jmn?
I try and follow TDI and Post#647. Coincident?
  • #93,156
  • Jan 15, 2019 10:51am Jan 15, 2019 10:51am
We have to try to find what we can make profits from....... not look to see how we can fail.
  • #93,157
  • Jan 15, 2019 12:45pm Jan 15, 2019 12:45pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well, the problem is there are no trends. Lets say you only want and can monitor one currency pair like GU or even EU or some other major pair. Have you looked back on them just for the last recent 3 monthes? Now would you say there are a lot of clear "trending" structures to identify? Honestly man, there is NOTHING. 90% of the time its ranging or going sideways for little moves maybe 30 Pips if you are lucky (4-5 HA candles). Even if you would only trade H4 or Daily i really canīt find a lot of good trades here in clear trending market...

Hi Iddd,

GBP/USD has 30 to 50 Pips Ranges, as an Average, and an Average Daily Range in excess of 100 Pips

By Trading M1 I can take advantage of these relatively small Ranges.

My SL is usually 10 Pips and my TP is between 20 and 30 Pips I'm in and out quickly.

I want to be Exposed to Market Fluctuations for as little Time as possible.
  • #93,158
  • Jan 15, 2019 1:07pm Jan 15, 2019 1:07pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} I am not looking for a strategy/system to scalp the markets soley by my own eyes. Even if this might work out for high experienced traders with lots of screen time watching and analysing charts to its bones for years. First. I donīt have the time to repeat this and draw a picasso on my chart each new day. With HH/HLs, trendlines, S/R and so on... Secondly and far more important i donīt think its even necessary to make money by trading the financial markets. So it probably all comes down to my personal goals and needs again, which are To...

Hi Iddd,

If Price and Structure isn't something you are interested in just ignore it and carry on with what you are doing.

At the end of the day it's either something you can "see" and make sense off or not.

I certainly don't try to force my Style of Trading onto anyone, like I said in a previous post, we are all on an Individual Journey and must find our own way.

By the way, I only mark my Charts, with Information, when posting them to try and help others understand what I am seeing, it's not something I have to do in my everyday Trading. Keeping things as clean and simple as possible is my "Mantra" I assure you.
  • #93,159
  • Jan 15, 2019 1:09pm Jan 15, 2019 1:09pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} You don't need TMS to be in those trades. I am in all 3 pairs with locked in profits.
I meant in the spirit of the TMS thread, trading these on H1/M15 would have got you in those trades. For some nice profits.
  • #93,160
  • Jan 15, 2019 1:13pm Jan 15, 2019 1:13pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Iddd, GBP/USD has 30 to 50 Pips Ranges, as an Average, and an Average Daily Range in excess of 100 Pips By Trading M1 I can take advantage of these relatively small Ranges. My SL is usually 10 Pips and my TP is between 20 and 30 Pips I'm in and out quickly. I want to be Exposed to Market Fluctuations for as little Time as possible.
Thats an interesting way to look at it. How many trades would you say are setup (a day) so that you can be out in minutes claiming +20 pips?
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