USD/JPY Discussion

Fibs - 15 seconds - 13:30 CPI m/m - 2019-01-11 - Chart Time: London (winter) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tight stops, tight spreads and extreme trade vetting and only under ideal conditions required - one or two sniper shots - if unsuccessful ruthless disciplined retreat* regardless of further considerations - trigger happy compulsive over trading and 'scalping' will result in fast losses - separate sideline account suggested - no time for further comment - go figure for self required.

*Definition of retreat - (of an army) withdraw from enemy forces as a result of their superior power or after a defeat. Oxford Dictionaries

M5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 seconds concluding comment:

1. Charts are merely indicative of market direction to enhance visual perspective.
2. In the heat of battle there is no fully formed chart for hindsight reference.
3. 'Blind-sight' is reliant on - in brevity - defined markers, PA, basic TA, bar metrics, identification of session impulse moves, avoidance of chaotic volatility and merciless discipline to restrict risk expenditure* to money management limit.
4. * maximum risk per session, day, week, etc., as applicable
5. A key fallacy is to include margin in risk management. Margin is dead animal - none working trading funds. Any number divided by 50 gives a result of 2% of the original number (150/50 = 3, (3/150)*100 = 2%). If 2% risk is selected, 2% risk is calculated against free margin which excluded margin collateral.
6. More info - https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11169008
7. A tight maximum stop expenditure can yield, on occasions, x15 and greater return. Indiscriminate and/or compulsive squandering of 15 maximum stop expenditures will render profits null and void. Discriminate selective trading required.
8. Suited to auxiliary side-line account complimenting longer time frame accounts.
9. No time for further comment - Go figure for self required.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Posts are personal reference notes (for private audience) ↓ - We do not discuss tradings strategies or methods.

My 5 second assessment of UJ on waking today . Unless it tanks in the next 90min we have a triple candle daily reversal next stop 110.
As I say that's my 5 second.. well more like 2 second assessment and not backed by anything other than " wow US finished strong / yen weak, up we go". I havent even looked at the other yen pairs yet. I was surprised EU has LH, I thought it would find better support. Glad I've gone back to scalping atm. So many pairs bounced back from the flash crash eg AU, looks like UJ might be bringing up the rear.
UDX possible daily tweezer bottom, and reversal, but nothing to get too excited about

week of profit.. thanks to USD JPY

Nice! This really is the best pair lately. The sell-off made it rain.

Edit & Omission (15 seconds concluding comment)

Omission:
Preceding chart examples cover, on the fly, Mon, Tues, Wed, Thu, Fri for second week 2019, 7-11/Jan/2019.
Suited to sideline account traded only under ideal trading conditions. Non trading conditions can persist for session/s, day/s or week/s.

Edit:
Charts red/white candles are indicative of general market direction to enhance visual perspective and change of color does not represent definitive entry or exit signals.

Omission:
A contributing assist (every indicator always works - except when it doesn't) to green-light/red-light analysis for lower than M1 TFs may be found to be the prevailing bar size foot-print. See below charts comparisons for visual descriptive of relevant indicator. We do not have a comparable MT4/5 indicator for distribution.

Green-light - Possible-get-in indication ↓ // 06:00 - 2018-07-05 - pre-London open - Chart Time: London - winter Red-light - Stay-out* indication ↓ // 15:18 - 2018-07-05 - Chart Time: London - winter

* Although experienced hands may have found a one shot snipe opportunity off the bounce of the dash green High line - due to considerable chop and safety in trading only ideal conditions the indicator is considered Red-light.
Omission:
Reference additional multiple higher timeframes in accordance with own research.

Edit:
A key fallacy is to calculate risk against Capital without separating margin from risk calculation**. Margin is dead animal - none working collateral reserve, is not at risk and is considered at 100 % margin Stop Out.

Any number divided by 50 gives a result of 2% of the original number (150/50 = 3, (3/150)*100 = 2%)***. If 2% risk is selected, 2% risk is calculated against free margin which excludes margin collateral.

This logic implies that in a perfect world of zero slippage a squandering of 50 consecutive risk expenditures (failure to close a losing trade at risk expenditure limit) will result in a bankrupt account with 100 % margin remaining.

Thus, risk of 2% and maximum stop of 200 points calculates -,
- example - Lots x Points x Exchange Rate = £# Risk. £# x 50 = £~ Free Margin. £# Risk = 2% of £~ Free Margin
- example - 0.01 lots x 200 points x 0.71788 = £1.435 = £1.44 Risk. £1.44 x 50 = £72 Free Margin. £1.44 Risk = 2 % of £72 Free Margin.

Free Margin + Margin = Final Required Capital per 0.01 lot.

Final Required Capital per @ 1:30 ..@ 2% = FM £72 + M £26.18 = £98.18 per 0.01 lot. Margin @ 1 lot = £2,618. FM @ 1 lot = £7,200. FRC = £9,818.
Final Required Capital per @ 1:500 @ 2% = FM £72 + M £1.57 ..= £73.57 per 0.01 lot. Margin @ 1 Lot = £157. ..FM @ 1 lot = £7,200. FRC = £7,357.

For simplicity of illustration the above equation does not include trading costs. Due to scarcity of selective trading and no overnight swaps trading cost should be minimal and modelling results are considered within acceptable practical limits. For easy of reference a progressively incrementing table can be displayed in a spread sheet.

It will be noted that while in both cases FM risk % is the same (£72), margin (£1.57 vs £28.18) leverage is the variable that decides the difference of final required capital.

It should not be hard to figure resulting error when margin is not separated from risk calculation.

** While a margin of 1:2,000 is negligible, an account requiring FSCS protection will fall under ESMA 1:30 - a considerable difference. Margin calculation - https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...25#post8896625

***
x = any number.

x/50 = y, y =2% of x;
x/100 = y, y = 1% of x;
x/200 = y, y = 0.5 % of x;
x/25 = y, y = 4% of x;
x/33.33 = y, y = 3% of x.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Free PA Starter Resource
- https://www.forexschoolonline.com/ho...epth-tutorial/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Posts are personal reference notes (for private audience) ↓ - We do not discuss tradings strategies or methods.

UJ

Are you tracking the USDJPY market this week? Consider this technical perspective from a short-term swing trader.

On the weekly time frame, the 104.050/114.230 zone has clearly provided a channel within which much of price action has operated since 2017. Within the channel, presently price action is largely disposed southwards. The long-tailed bearish candlestick formed two weeks ago is likely to be an opportunity for reprogramming price action to retest a value area northward and we may see a southward continuation this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

I think you may be right.. I am a buyer but but much lower unless i seesomthing patten wise to change my mind

In my chart analysis view I see a second test of the 105.xx aera in next 4 weeks. In case of a new drop down of the DJ/ S&P500 it will come sooner.
First indication is a daily break of 108. A strong restistance level is 110.30 area.
I am short (swing trade).

to trade or not to trade the Brexit vote on January 15?

what happened during the Brexit referendum vote last time on June 23, 2016

i'm sitting out of the market until things become more clear

Thanks for sharing

Betting on a short term stop clearing move through 108.6xx

Easy money...

Betting on a short term stop clearing move through 108.7xx

With continued higher lows, many trend breaks and a continued push higher, 109.3 is on the horizon. Start this journey Jan 10th, I did. and now the images are becoming much clearer for direction.

$

looks like it is about to top out to me

Technically, we are likely to have a further southward move. But we need a breakout of the triangle on the monthly time frame for a sustainable directional move.

KP

Possibly,


What I am watching, here is the trend break, hmmm, followed by the retouch bounce, large wick formed, new trend line created.

Guide my way, this new trend line will

4 hr looks like setting up for hier ground.. 1 hr looks a bit hairy.. THKS for monthly chart