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US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

  • #41
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:33am Oct 13, 2006 8:33am
"Quote originally posted from Pipstar:Here's something to study. You made a fundamental mistake to put a 50 pips stop loss; it should be no more than 20 pips stop loss for a news trade. Some traders put a 10 pip stop loss but I think that it's too tight if your broker widens the spread. Otherwise you will destroy your account. If you only take a small loss there is always the next news trade to recover; if you take a big loss you have no funds left to trade. Just trying to help."

Thanks Pipstar.
These too shall pass away.
  • #42
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:34am Oct 13, 2006 8:34am
Ultimately. profits drive the economy. Gas sales make up about 10% of retail sales. As long as people keep buying gas, profits are normally locked in at a minimum run rate. Look at some of Bloomburg's reports on retail sales for mechants (i.e. departent stores ,etc.) very strong.......that'y why the postive run for the dollar.....

Look at the charts...most of the $$ pairs fell on the original news BUT when the x gas number came out the market knew that was good for growing economy and the USD
  • #43
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:35am Oct 13, 2006 8:35am
Quoting waf_1988
for Achilles heel,
What do you suggest about today's trading? Is it to follow trend or we're still waiting for US Consumer Sentiment data?
I'm trading it on the trend, regardless the data that seems very confusing?!!
Hi waf_1988,

I am out of the market now, out till next week. I dont really like scalping but when I do I am in and out, 20-30 minutes max. As far as the trend goes I would think we will get a little retracment due to technicals on the daily charts (dollar bear), before the trend continues for the dollar. But I dont know what this 9:45 report will do, and I have not looked at the news for next week for GBP or USD.

Best Regards,
Ah.
  • #44
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:36am Oct 13, 2006 8:36am
guys, the consumer sentiment report is at 10am, not 945. they changed this last month, im not sure if it is a permanent time change or what. but for today, it will come out at 10am for sure.
Relax and be happy.
  • #45
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:46am Oct 13, 2006 8:46am
Quoting merlin
guys, the consumer sentiment report is at 10am, not 945. they changed this last month, im not sure if it is a permanent time change or what. but for today, it will come out at 10am for sure.
Darn!! I have a meeting at 10am.
  • #46
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:52am Oct 13, 2006 8:52am
So true!

Quoting SeekingLight
Exactly
When will the fundamental traders learn that the price is always right, not the "supposed to" of data releases and news?
What happens on your chart is (FX) reality, not the figures and estimates =)
-soso
  • #47
  • Oct 13, 2006 9:01am Oct 13, 2006 9:01am
Traded Consumer Sentiment

Straddle +/-5 SL:10 TP +20 (Exit at 100% Fib level)

IBFX Delayed more than 2 min to let me exit
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Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #48
  • Oct 13, 2006 9:02am Oct 13, 2006 9:02am
Well the Eur/Usd and the Chf/Usd broke out.

Can the Gbp/Usd and the Jpy/Usd break out too?
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #49
  • Oct 13, 2006 9:03am Oct 13, 2006 9:03am
Better View
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Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #50
  • Oct 13, 2006 9:08am Oct 13, 2006 9:08am
consumer confidence 92.3 ...

Its easy to make the $ stronger when needed !

What is that US needs to buy from abroad ?
  • #51
  • Oct 13, 2006 9:17am Oct 13, 2006 9:17am
Quoting trucco
consumer confidence 92.3 ...

Its easy to make the $ stronger when needed !

What is that US needs to buy from abroad ?
Direct quote from an online trading buddy I IM with each day:

"Who would sell the dollar now...."

I gave him a for that one....
  • #52
  • Oct 13, 2006 9:20am Oct 13, 2006 9:20am
Quoting SeekingLight
When will the fundamental traders learn that the price is always right, not the "supposed to" of data releases and news?
What happens on your chart is (FX) reality, not the figures and estimates =)
:-)

Oh come on now...that's a funny thing to say...how can the "price" ever be wrong?

With that said, I don't think the fundamental numbers vs. price created a conundrum. I think the direction seen today was rather appropriate based on the entire picture. What we saw was the USD-bulls wrestling the fundamental data in their direction...plain and simple. Basically, with the majority of traders in the USD-bull direction, they wanted every excuse they could find to move the price further in their direction. Seems like the numbers today gave them more fodder.

I stayed out, only because I knew the numbers might be confusing (at least to me). I probably should have traded, but you can't keep a good win/loss ratio on guesses.

Until there are universally dollar-negative stories in the market, I can't see the bulls letting up until we reach strong technical resistance. So, I'll keep the runners running, and look to get in to a trade when the opportunity presents itself for a reversal.
  • #53
  • Oct 13, 2006 9:58am Oct 13, 2006 9:58am
[quote=mrmikal]:-)

Oh come on now...that's a funny thing to say...how can the "price" ever be wrong?
QUOTE]

LOL. Well, regardless of rather the price is right or wrong. I only get paid by where it is at. So, I will be looking to stay on the right side of Mr. Price rather I agree with him or not.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #54
  • Oct 13, 2006 10:01am Oct 13, 2006 10:01am
No doubt what we have seen is strong retail sales and CC numbers furthering the $ bulls. There has been an overall $ bullish sentiment in the market since last friday's jobs report. I absolutely agree that until some strong $- fundamentals come out, except for temporary profit taking, te $ will remain bullish.
  • #55
  • Oct 13, 2006 10:15am Oct 13, 2006 10:15am
That explains it!!

Thanks Pal!


Quoting NewstraderFX
No doubt what we have seen is strong retail sales and CC numbers furthering the $ bulls. There has been an overall $ bullish sentiment in the market since last friday's jobs report. I absolutely agree that until some strong $- fundamentals come out, except for temporary profit taking, te $ will remain bullish.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #56
  • Oct 13, 2006 10:19am Oct 13, 2006 10:19am
After learning what was inside the Retail Sales number, I have to agree, it was indeed USD Positive. The negativity was skin deep - based mostly on the drop in fuel expenditure.

Increase expenditure on most other area, Fed may raise hike anew? Watch the 10yr bond,, its 4.8% now and climbing...

No wonder a lot are buying usd... I bet jpy money is thrown overboard seeking usd.
  • #57
  • Oct 13, 2006 10:38am Oct 13, 2006 10:38am
Quoting merlin
if gas dropped so much, shouldnt the consumer be spending that money elsewhere?
Maybe they are using it to Re-Fund their FX account after numerous failed attempts to TTN.
  • #58
  • Oct 13, 2006 10:46am Oct 13, 2006 10:46am
Quoting summitfx
That explains it!!

Thanks Pal!
Your sarcasm is appreciated, but when will you have something useful to post? If you've looked at my thread, you'll see i've been on this vein for awhile. Today was just a further confirmation.

I'll give you something else and you've read it here first; we are at or very close to a bottom in the housing market. When it's established, absent other $- fundamentals, we'll see 2000 in the EURO within 2-4 weeks after that. What's your opinion?
  • #59
  • Oct 13, 2006 10:55am Oct 13, 2006 10:55am
I don't make predictions. I only trade the obvious. I think anyone who follows this market would agree that the $ is bullish and that there will be some short term profit taking soon unless we seem some fundamental -$ at which point the $ will reverse. Duh! I enjoy your posts- keeps me in the grins

Hey- I posted this in the "What really works" thread

It's as simple as going long when the currency is rising and going short when the currency is falling. Any system or indicator you use will only be profitable if you use it coreectly. Ever notice how all of the indicators rise and fall with price!This is my contribution~hope it helps![img]images/smilies/wink.gif[/img]
<!-- / message --><!-- sig --> __________________


Quoting NewstraderFX
Your sarcasm is appreciated, but when will you have something useful to post? If you've looked at my thread, you'll see i've been on this vein for awhile. Today was just a further confirmation.

I'll give you something else and you've read it here first; we are at or very close to a bottom in the housing market. When it's established, absent other $- fundamentals, we'll see 2000 in the EURO within 2-4 weeks after that. What's your opinion?
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #60
  • Oct 13, 2006 11:14am Oct 13, 2006 11:14am
Quoting summitfx
I don't make predictions. I only trade the obvious. __________________

<------that's two thumbs up
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
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