US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Retail Sentiment Fallacy? 24 replies

Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales? 3 replies

difference between consumer confidence and consumer sentiment 0 replies

Consumer Sentiment (p) 12 replies

Consumer Sentiment Repot today 2 replies

Attachments: US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment
Exit Attachments

US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

  • #21
  • Oct 13, 2006 7:52am Oct 13, 2006 7:52am
Quoting BurgerKing
Though this number is very USD Short, it ended bull instead..
so whats new? we've been hollaring about this for weeks now!
Relax and be happy.
  • #22
  • Oct 13, 2006 7:59am Oct 13, 2006 7:59am
Watch out for the Consumer Confidence Number..

After everything calmed down after that, I call that people will be shorting USD just like yesterday!

Besides, there is TOTALLY nothing good for the USD on the retail. All were very NEGATIVE
  • #23
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:00am Oct 13, 2006 8:00am
burger you are crazy thinking anything can put the dollar down. if a horrible retail sales number cant do it, what makes you think some stupid consumer survey can?
Relax and be happy.
  • #24
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:01am Oct 13, 2006 8:01am
Quoting BurgerKing
Though this number is very USD Short, it ended bull instead..

I read that Options are guarding the 1.2500 level as well as 1.8560/35 agressively!

Will we see an up move later instead?

I wonder how the asians and Europeans would react?
I agree with you BK, chinese are eur/usd buyers now.

Quote
10/13/2006 08:56
OFF SESSION LOWS OF 1.2507 ON REPORTED BUYING FROM CHINESE, BANK OF INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS (BIS)
- The 1.25 level remains intact as a result.
  • #25
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:01am Oct 13, 2006 8:01am
Quoting merlin
so whats new? we've been hollaring about this for weeks now!
Exactly

Also see attached chart with PA, I was long an hour before the news.
Was also short cable and got stopped out for 3 pips for a too tight stop, else would have had a rather quick +40 as my limit got hit there as well

<3 James16

See attached chart.

When will the fundamental traders learn that the price is always right, not the "supposed to" of data releases and news?
What happens on your chart is (FX) reality, not the figures and estimates =)
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #26
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:03am Oct 13, 2006 8:03am
I am trying ripple trading after report, not in spike. I put deviation for today's report on EX-Auto 0.3% and when I see report worse than 0.5, I put buy order with 50 pips stop loss. My stop loss was hit, lost 50 pips. I do not have patience to wait atleast 2 minutes to see where market is going. I lost too much. I will quit for 1 month, will study and come back. Any suggestion what I should study and where I can get fx education?

Thanks guys, nice prediction here.
These too shall pass away.
  • #27
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:06am Oct 13, 2006 8:06am
I am amazed!



Quoting SeekingLight
Exactly

Also see attached chart with PA, I was long an hour before the news.
Was also short cable and got stopped out for 3 pips for a too tight stop, else would have had a rather quick +40 as my limit got hit there as well

<3 James16

See attached chart.

When will the fundamental traders learn that the price is always right, not the "supposed to" of data releases and news?
What happens on your chart is (FX) reality, not the figures and estimates =)
Target: Trading naked.
  • #28
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:09am Oct 13, 2006 8:09am
Quoting merlin
burger you are crazy thinking anything can put the dollar down. if a horrible retail sales number cant do it, what makes you think some stupid consumer survey can?
That report is a joke. Unfortunatley, it doesn't mean people wont play it. LOL

I will be watching to see if the dollar can break out today. If not next week will be an interesting set up.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #29
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:11am Oct 13, 2006 8:11am
Quoting fspirani
I am trying ripple trading after report, not in spike. I put deviation for today's report on EX-Auto 0.3% and when I see report worse than 0.5, I put buy order with 50 pips stop loss. My stop loss was hit, lost 50 pips. I do not have patience to wait atleast 2 minutes to see where market is going. I lost too much. I will quit for 1 month, will study and come back.

Thanks guys, nice prediction here.
Here's something to study. You made a fundamental mistake to put a 50 pips stop loss; it should be no more than 20 pips stop loss for a news trade. Some traders put a 10 pip stop loss but I think that it's too tight if your broker widens the spread. Otherwise you will destroy your account. If you only take a small loss there is always the next news trade to recover; if you take a big loss you have no funds left to trade. Just trying to help.
  • #30
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:12am Oct 13, 2006 8:12am
I still think, there might be a run on 2500 barrier, before day's over or early next week.
If you want to short dollar, wait till it hits 2460/80 and 8440/60.

Quoting Shafii
I agree with you BK, chinese are eur/usd buyers now.


[/size]
  • #31
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:13am Oct 13, 2006 8:13am
Quoting BurgerKing
Watch out for the Consumer Confidence Number..

After everything calmed down after that, I call that people will be shorting USD just like yesterday!

Besides, there is TOTALLY nothing good for the USD on the retail. All were very NEGATIVE
I'm not sure it was all bad, the number went down because gas prices in the US plummeted recently which dragged the number down. The hidden thing here is that most US consumers spent this money elsewhere which is what caused the bull move for dollar.

Best Regards,
Ah.
  • #32
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:13am Oct 13, 2006 8:13am
I suggest to follow the market trend today. It is already bearish for GBP/USD although the data is negative for dollar. I don't understand it either. But, for the saver trading. I believe most of you guys will agree that we should trade following the market trend. So, let the market goes as it should, then, we can trade it savely...^^

Have a nice trading...
Hello World
  • #33
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:17am Oct 13, 2006 8:17am
for Achilles heel,
What do you suggest about today's trading? Is it to follow trend or we're still waiting for US Consumer Sentiment data?
I'm trading it on the trend, regardless the data that seems very confusing?!!
Hello World
  • #34
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:18am Oct 13, 2006 8:18am
For those that didn't already know the retail less gas came out at +.6%. Gas prices dropping drove the overall raw sales number down but the report does not include profits...just gross sales. Obviously if gas pricess fell....so did the cost to buy.....that is why the .6% increase was so important this morning. Retail sales are very strong....look at some of reports....very positive....less money for gas means positive spending elsewhere......which could mean (along with Moskow statements last night) the Fed could make 1 more increase as it doesn't look as though the economy is cooling as fast as originally thought....that why the bull run.....Damn Chineese though....I was looking for a break through 1.5000
  • #35
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:23am Oct 13, 2006 8:23am
Quoting ccmike
For those that didn't already know the retail less gas came out at +.6%. Gas prices dropping drove the overall raw sales number down but the report does not include profits...just gross sales. Obviously if gas pricess fell....so did the cost to buy.....that is why the .6% increase was so important this morning. Retail sales are very strong....look at some of reports....very positive....less money for gas means positive spending elsewhere......which could mean (along with Moskow statements last night) the Fed could make 1 more increase as it doesn't look as though the economy is cooling as fast as originally thought....that why the bull run.....Damn Chineese though....I was looking for a break through 1.5000
Do you think it will also have an impact in consumer spending reading today?
Hello World
  • #36
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:26am Oct 13, 2006 8:26am
Quoting merlin
burger you are crazy thinking anything can put the dollar down. if a horrible retail sales number cant do it, what makes you think some stupid consumer survey can?
Im not referring that this survey will short the USD.

but rather the "later" reaction to it... ie, after the frenzy sips in.

yesterday, Trade balance balooned, usd rallied, but later shorted.. beige book did not do anything to it.
  • #37
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:27am Oct 13, 2006 8:27am
Quoting ccmike
For those that didn't already know the retail less gas came out at +.6%. Gas prices dropping drove the overall raw sales number down but the report does not include profits...just gross sales. Obviously if gas pricess fell....so did the cost to buy.....that is why the .6% increase was so important this morning. Retail sales are very strong....
if gas dropped so much, shouldnt the consumer be spending that money elsewhere? i see many using this gas price drop as an excuse for the dollar strength, but i think its a bit of a stretch. another thing to consider, we KNEW gas prices went down in september, right? so why didnt the economists predict retail sales would go down? this number was worse than expected, i cant see any way around it.
Relax and be happy.
  • #38
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:29am Oct 13, 2006 8:29am
A direct impact....No...the report is so subjective im my opinion....although I do so see a correlation...with stong sales numbers ususally breed confidence...we'll see the market reaction in a few minutes
  • #39
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:29am Oct 13, 2006 8:29am
Quoting BurgerKing
.. beige book did not do anything to it.
beige book never does anything! its a bunch of fluff, the fed wont let us see the blue book so they try to make us feel better by giving us the beige book.
Relax and be happy.
  • #40
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:30am Oct 13, 2006 8:30am
Quoting merlin
if gas dropped so much, shouldnt the consumer be spending that money elsewhere? i see many using this gas price drop as an excuse for the dollar strength, but i think its a bit of a stretch. another thing to consider, we KNEW gas prices went down in september, right? so why didnt the economists predict retail sales would go down? this number was worse than expected, i cant see any way around it.
I think, by spending the money elsewhere, consumer's point of view for economy will be good. Then, again, will support the dollar, right?! It's still moving following the market trend then...
Hello World
0 traders viewing now