US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

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[IFR Forex Watch]


[11:52 US ECON: Data on Tap - Import Prices, Retail Sales, Michigan] Boston,
October 13.
[Import & Export Prices (Sep)] A major correction in petroleum product
prices should ease the import price index by 1.0% in September, the biggest drop
since November 2005 (-1.9%). Net of petroleum we expect the index to rise by
0.1%, down from a 0.5% increase in August. Capital goods prices should be flat
while prices for imported autos, parts and engines should be negative for the
first time in eight months. Prices consumer goods ex-autos, which jumped by 0.4%
in July but were unchanged in August, should rise by 0.1%.
[Retail Sales (Sep)] Impressive same-store sales and better-than-expected
motor vehicle sales should lift retail receipts by 0.6% in September. Gasoline
prices sank in September so station sales will be lower unless the volume of
purchases increased. So far this year, gasoline stations represented 10% of
total retailer sales, 25% more than in 1996.
Look for furniture and home furnishing store sales to rise for the first
time in three months while sales at building materials and garden equipment and
supply dealers should have their best month since March. Clothing and accessory
stores should claw back from a 0.3% drop in sales in August.
Net of autos and gasoline, retail sales should be about 0.5%, consistent
with the growth rate over the prior six months.
[U of Michigan Sentiment (pOct)] The strong links between gas and equity
prices and sentiment has pushed up our forecast for the University of Michigan s
consumer sentiment index to 89 from 86 (and 86.5 last). Note also the rebounds
in the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index and the ABC/Washington Post weekly index
to the highest readings in 18 months.
[Business Inventories (Aug)] After rising by 0.6% in July, the least in five
months, business inventories should accelerate again in August. Factory
inventories rose by 0.4% and we are factoring in a 0.8% rise in wholesale
inventories and large rise in retail inventories owing to autos.
[DATE ET RELEASE UNIT PER IFR EST LAST MEDIAN RANGE ]
13Oct 12:30 Import Prices %m/m Sep -1.0 0.8 -1.2 -2.5 0.1
13Oct 12:30 Retail Sales %m/m Sep 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.6
13Oct 12:30 ex Autos %m/m Sep 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.5
13Oct 13:45 Michigan Sentiment Idx pOct 89.0 85.4 86.5 86.0 90.0
13Oct 14:00 Business Invent. %m/m Aug 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7
-- [email protected]

Quoting Shafii

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I'm just going to sit and watch on this one
Straddling this news proven to be dangerous in the past, large whipsaws unless the actual is 0.3% or more from expected.

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Quoting zaid

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I have information the US retail will be worst from previous, This data has been collected from source we can belive, the data accurate more 80% before this, I can't tell the source but some economist has use this indicator to predict US retail and unbelieveable the accurate more 80%. So I will go long for GBP/USD a few second before news release. Just put Stop loss 10-15 pips.

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Quoting BurgerKing

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But I prefer it to be very USD bull

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Quoting FXopportunist

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Out of all of the analysis I have read on this release, I found Commerzbanks the most specific as related to strategy. The readers digest version is that they expect the Retail sales less auto to be less than predicted. If that proves true they will be watching the advanced retail sales for direction.

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Quoting BurgerKing

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Something from IFR Squawk:

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