Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 1873 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #37,441
  • Jan 4, 2019 12:18pm Jan 4, 2019 12:18pm
Quoting billytt
t 17-18 Cable .. High made 0f adr 127 who cares if it goes higher Before {image} after {image}
Hi Billytt.
Thanks for the walk-throughs for the last few days, it has been really interesting.
Have a great weekend
Regards
Kev
  • #37,442
  • Jan 4, 2019 12:32pm Jan 4, 2019 12:32pm
Quoting kevin1959
{quote} Hi Billytt. Thanks for the walk-throughs for the last few days, it has been really interesting. Have a great weekend Regards Kev
True, I second that. Very interesting insights, thanks.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #37,443
  • Edited 3:53pm Jan 4, 2019 3:26pm | Edited 3:53pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} TAKE STATS AND STATS AND STATS. STATS OF 00-00 & 04-00 4 HOUR BARS.... If you have ideas check them too. Check different pairs, but ideally you want the big movers/volatility.so you can get in and get out.
Hey billy, sorry if this has been asked before, but I'm starting to analyze frequency distributions and I'd like to know how far should I go when doing this. Like, what's a decent sample size for these type of FDs? For example, if I look at a specific H4 bar during the day, how many days should I be looking at? Is "recent" data more useful than older data (like, this year vs 2 years ago) or is it better yo have a bigger sample including some older data as well?

In case anyone's interested, I'm looking at the frequency distributions of ranges, and the way they "expand" towards the next probable range (if it reverses or expands in the same direction).
  • #37,444
  • Jan 4, 2019 4:53pm Jan 4, 2019 4:53pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} lol, if I had a child, no trading forums for the kid, that is for sure ... you see what people post here ...
Wadda ya mean?!!!

It's just the normal noises in here...

Attached Image


(With a drink to anyone who picks up on the reference - No Google!)
  • #37,445
  • Jan 4, 2019 4:55pm Jan 4, 2019 4:55pm
Right, have a good weekend, all. I should be back on track on Monday...or Tuesday.

...or Wednesday
  • #37,446
  • Jan 5, 2019 3:03am Jan 5, 2019 3:03am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} lol, if I had a child, no trading forums for the kid, that is for sure ... you see what people post here ...
the weird thing is, she could trade lol and i let her.
Then a couple of weeks later she just stopped..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,447
  • Jan 5, 2019 3:03am Jan 5, 2019 3:03am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Wadda ya mean?!!! It's just the normal noises in here... {image} (With a drink to anyone who picks up on the reference - No Google!)
stop posting pics of my ex wife plz.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,448
  • Jan 5, 2019 3:15am Jan 5, 2019 3:15am
Quoting Rfs199
{quote} Hey billy, sorry if this has been asked before, but I'm starting to analyze frequency distributions and I'd like to know how far should I go when doing this. Like, what's a decent sample size for these type of FDs? For example, if I look at a specific H4 bar during the day, how many days should I be looking at? Is "recent" data more useful than older data (like, this year vs 2 years ago) or is it better yo have a bigger sample including some older data as well? In case anyone's interested, I'm looking at the frequency distributions of ranges,...
Hi Rfs,
Keep asking questions. That is why i am here.
I used to take stats going back years and years and years (20 years) but i honestly believe this is not necessary.
But why not put a chart/s up from 15 years ago just to check and validate.
You do need a few months of charts so you can see happenings throughout the year.

Once you comprehend the idea that certain things happen at certain time/levels you can then trade with confidence.
You can use your own method, example trade off 20 Moving Average in conjunction with the break of the 00-00 4 hour bar. inside bar break etc.
Collate the stats and use to your own advantage.
i will stick a few 00-00 4 hour bar charts up.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,449
  • Jan 5, 2019 3:33am Jan 5, 2019 3:33am
When we trade Monday 7th Jan,
Cable average daily range is 152. ( my calculations for the previous 5 days ) Sunday is not in the calculation.


edit. i would personally use a modest daily Range.
But lets see what the 00-00 4 hour bar is first..UK Time.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,450
  • Edited 4:08am Jan 5, 2019 3:57am | Edited 4:08am
Cable average daily range.
chart shows the 5 daily candles ,mon to fri. my calculations are High 12875 & Low 12571
Attached Image


Sun night we usually have a gap, blah blah. let it close blah.

Then we have the Monday 00-00 4 hour candle...
with the range of this candle we will then adjust my daily range calculation so it is still 152.

THEN WE WILL CHASE THE ADR YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY.
I prefer to let the 00-00 4 bar break and hopefully retrace to break the opposite end, this makes chasing the adr better oods.

Of course we might then lose the first break but hey ho.
Lets see........
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,451
  • Jan 5, 2019 4:07am Jan 5, 2019 4:07am
Cable...
then we can add mini levels ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.mini level sat 5th B.PNG Size: 30 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,452
  • Jan 5, 2019 4:29am Jan 5, 2019 4:29am
Quoting billytt
{quote} TAKE STATS AND STATS AND STATS. STATS OF 00-00 & 04-00 4 HOUR BARS.... If you have ideas check them too. Check different pairs, but ideally you want the big movers/volatility.so you can get in and get out.
Morning!

Which pair would you recommend starting with?

Green pips!
Buy low, sell high.
  • #37,453
  • Jan 5, 2019 4:39am Jan 5, 2019 4:39am
Quoting HappyMan
{quote} Morning! Which pair would you recommend starting with? Green pips!
If you looking for volatile pairs as Billy suggests then any GBP pair next week should fit the bill.

Remember Brexit vote a week on Monday. Be careful.
  • #37,454
  • Jan 5, 2019 4:51am Jan 5, 2019 4:51am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} If you looking for volatile pairs as Billy suggests then any GBP pair next week should fit the bill. Remember Brexit vote a week on Monday. Be careful.
Wonder what Eurusd will do ... maybe liquidity "safe haven" for now ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #37,455
  • Jan 5, 2019 5:20am Jan 5, 2019 5:20am
Quoting billytt
Cable average daily range. chart shows the 5 daily candles ,mon to fri. my calculations are High 12875 & Low 12571 {image} Sun night we usually have a gap, blah blah. let it close blah. Then we have the Monday 00-00 4 hour candle... with the range of this candle we will then adjust my daily range calculation so it is still 152. THEN WE WILL CHASE THE ADR YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY. I prefer to let the 00-00 4 bar break and hopefully retrace to break the opposite end, this makes chasing the adr better oods. Of course we might then lose...
Hi Billytt
Sorry I seem to have got a bit of brain fog here, and I know you have explained this several times.
I understand how you are getting the ADR at 152, but can't see how you are getting the figures of 12861 and 12657.
I have tried adding and subtracting the ADR from the close of the Friday daily candle but cant come up with the same figures.
I promise to write it down this time lol
Regards
Kevin
  • #37,456
  • Jan 5, 2019 5:54am Jan 5, 2019 5:54am
Quoting kevin1959
{quote} Hi Billytt Sorry I seem to have got a bit of brain fog here, and I know you have explained this several times. I understand how you are getting the ADR at 152, but can't see how you are getting the figures of 12861 and 12657. I have tried adding and subtracting the ADR from the close of the Friday daily candle but cant come up with the same figures. I promise to write it down this time lol Regards Kevin
Kev am I missing some thing here. Billy quotes 12875 and 12571 - where are you getting your numbers from ?
  • #37,457
  • Jan 5, 2019 7:59am Jan 5, 2019 7:59am
Quoting HappyMan
{quote} Morning! Which pair would you recommend starting with? Green pips!
As Claudia pointed out G/U is the nuts but Brexit can/will make it scary.
E/J & E/U are good contenders.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,458
  • Jan 5, 2019 8:09am Jan 5, 2019 8:09am
Quoting kevin1959
{quote} Hi Billytt Sorry I seem to have got a bit of brain fog here, and I know you have explained this several times. I understand how you are getting the ADR at 152, but can't see how you are getting the figures of 12861 and 12657. I have tried adding and subtracting the ADR from the close of the Friday daily candle but cant come up with the same figures. I promise to write it down this time lol Regards Kevin
Hi Kev,, maybe i should not of posted the adr so early but this is how i did it...

G/U closed Fri evening at 12723....

adr for previous 5 days is 152.

SO adr High is 12723 + 152 = 12875

adr Low is 12723 - 152 = 12571
like i said, after the 00-00 4 hour bar on Monday, these figures will be adjusted ...
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #37,459
  • Jan 5, 2019 9:29am Jan 5, 2019 9:29am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Kev am I missing some thing here. Billy quotes 12875 and 12571 - where are you getting your numbers from ?
Hi Claudia
Sorry about the delay in replying.
My close on GBP/USD is at 12709, I was trying to work it out with pencil and paper and got a bit confused.
I got a bottle of whiskey bought for Christmas, and opened it last night which I think added to the confusion lol,
Thanks for the reply though
Regards
Kev
  • #37,460
  • Jan 5, 2019 9:49am Jan 5, 2019 9:49am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Kev,, maybe i should not of posted the adr so early but this is how i did it... G/U closed Fri evening at 12723.... adr for previous 5 days is 152. SO adr High is 12723 + 152 = 12875 adr Low is 12723 - 152 = 12571 like i said, after the 00-00 4 hour bar on Monday, these figures will be adjusted ...
Hi Billytt
Sorry about the late reply, I've just been finishing my fence, and just got back in.
My close on Friday is 12709, so I would have had 12709 + 152 = 12861 high
12709 -152 = 12557 Low

I got further confused this morning as I tried googling the answer before I asked questions here, and the website I wa on stated to take the ADR from the previous daily low, and add the ADR to the previous daily low.

I was scribbling numbers down on an old envelope, and by the time I had finished it looked like a ransome note or secret formula lol

Thanks for the answer
Regards
Kev
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