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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #79,621
  • Dec 27, 2018 7:39pm Dec 27, 2018 7:39pm
Quoting arncap
I have been heavily invested in USDJPY short for a long time -- some trades as long as 5.5 years running with swap losses as high as negative $8,300. Take a look at the screenshot of my platform and you'll see what I mean! This is a real live account, not a demo! Any ideas which direction this pair is headed in the coming months? I would love to see a turnaround of sorts!!! Does anyone see the pair move into the 90s in the near future? I look forward to hearing the outlook from other traders... {image}
If you're down $200k on UJ, are you that much in profit in other trades keeping you afloat? The fact that you are still in play is quite amazing, and I am curious about your big picture. Please tell me you're holding 5 years of longs in something else that's sitting at 1million profit, and I'll tell you to cut your UJ losses and move on..
  • #79,622
  • Dec 27, 2018 7:40pm Dec 27, 2018 7:40pm
Quoting arncap
I have been heavily invested in USDJPY short for a long time -- some trades as long as 5.5 years running with swap losses as high as negative $8,300. Take a look at the screenshot of my platform and you'll see what I mean! This is a real live account, not a demo! Any ideas which direction this pair is headed in the coming months? I would love to see a turnaround of sorts!!! Does anyone see the pair move into the 90s in the near future? I look forward to hearing the outlook from other traders... {image}
This is typical I-want-to-break-even-because-i-cant-admit-my-mistakes.
You even added shorts again!"(This is typical mistakes too.)

Just cut losses,now.
You would be wiped out if you dont.
In these situations,cutting losses is always right.

But,if you can cut losses,you didnt ask questions about future outlook in the first place,did you.
  • #79,623
  • Dec 27, 2018 7:42pm Dec 27, 2018 7:42pm
Quoting Ra.
{quote} 2013 is when they introduced QE, which can mpletely devalued their Yen.... so unless the States does something to drastically offset this... I.E Oil is no longer traded in USD or Japan develops Fusion.... might be a while. Just my thoughts, but I’ll be first to admit I know nothing.
Man you got some shit ton money there. Hope u have good risk management and that losses means nothing to you. i think when in doubt get out which you obviously dont want to hear and you already know.
  • #79,624
  • Dec 27, 2018 8:22pm Dec 27, 2018 8:22pm
Quoting arncap
I have been heavily invested in USDJPY short for a long time -- some trades as long as 5.5 years running with swap losses as high as negative $8,300. Take a look at the screenshot of my platform and you'll see what I mean! This is a real live account, not a demo! Any ideas which direction this pair is headed in the coming months? I would love to see a turnaround of sorts!!! Does anyone see the pair move into the 90s in the near future? I look forward to hearing the outlook from other traders... {image}
Interesting article here by Ray Dalio

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/12/da...cycle-economy/

With Powell and Trump in charge who knows

Kuroda would not be a happy man if there is too much upward pressure on the Yen

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1OI2JY

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1OP09M

Hence one of the reasons we have been strength in the euro.

Personally, I think it would take a while to get there.
I think Diane Swonk said that we should have a recession in 2020

So if you have two of the smartest economists with the same view......really this can only drive assets to safe havens- but its going to take some time.


Anyway good luck
  • #79,625
  • Dec 27, 2018 9:07pm Dec 27, 2018 9:07pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Interesting article here by Ray Dalio https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/12/da...cycle-economy/ With Powell and Trump in charge who knows Kuroda would not be a happy man if there is too much upward pressure on the Yen https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1OI2JY https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKCN1OP09M Hence...

Some fascinating reading there, I think I'll print the first article out as it's like economics for idiots. I didnt study economics At school. Not sure what its like for everyone else in the world, but it's super hot here (just north of sydney, Australia) like 33deg/ 91F and after a swim catching up on FF in the air con is a great option
  • #79,626
  • Dec 27, 2018 9:15pm Dec 27, 2018 9:15pm
Quoting hellsbells
{quote} Some fascinating reading there, I think I'll print the first article out as it's like economics for idiots. I didnt study economics At school. Not sure what its like for everyone else in the world, but it's super hot here (just north of sydney, Australia) like 33deg/ 91F and after a swim catching up on FF in the air con is a great option
hell yea its too hot here i am in air con 24/7
  • #79,627
  • Dec 28, 2018 12:43am Dec 28, 2018 12:43am
Quoting arncap
I have been heavily invested in USDJPY short for a long time -- some trades as long as 5.5 years running with swap losses as high as negative $8,300. Take a look at the screenshot of my platform and you'll see what I mean! This is a real live account, not a demo! Any ideas which direction this pair is headed in the coming months? I would love to see a turnaround of sorts!!! Does anyone see the pair move into the 90s in the near future? I look forward to hearing the outlook from other traders... {image}
If you're trading that size, and asking FF forums for advice, I would liquidate those holdings and reassess my investment decisions.

A
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #79,628
  • Dec 28, 2018 1:23am Dec 28, 2018 1:23am
Inserted Video
  • #79,629
  • Dec 28, 2018 1:29am Dec 28, 2018 1:29am
Quoting 4xjunkie
One Possibility, if is dose not get rejected at 109.00{image}.
Good to see your back, its been some time.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #79,630
  • Dec 28, 2018 11:38am Dec 28, 2018 11:38am
Does anyone agree? > Long position in USD/JPY
Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat...
  • #79,631
  • Dec 28, 2018 6:01pm Dec 28, 2018 6:01pm
Quoting darksize
Pending buy order on 110.866 {image}
Stop loss hit at 110,200
-._.-
  • #79,632
  • Dec 28, 2018 10:49pm Dec 28, 2018 10:49pm
Happy New Year to ALL.
  • #79,633
  • Dec 29, 2018 12:19am Dec 29, 2018 12:19am
CannonScout, that's a great point, however, I am just looking for the general consensus from other trades / the general public out there. I am in the predicament I am in but certainly not feeling bad about it. It looks awful, but I know how much money I have put into the account and I am fortunate to be ahead of where I started by about $35k. No, that's piss all in 8 years but the only thing I have lost is other investment opportunities while this money has been tied up in forex. There are no guarantees in another investments I could have chosen anyway.

I have a system that has been like a roller coaster. The thing about where I am now is that I am in a safe place from an account standpoint. Worst-case scenario, the USDJPY heads north and I have to wait it out or close trades. Based on history, there will likely be a world event, even some type of tragedy that will cause the JPY to be a safe-haven again. Then, the USD will take a dive against it. Probably just a matter of time. I am already planning to get out of my EURJPY.

People often ask why I do what I do and question my trading practices. The only way to explain that would be to show someone my entire trading history so that they could see how I operate. The risks I take have allowed me to make a ton of money as well as lose money. I believe that it is the only way to make big money in forex. If I chose to take the odd loss instead of hanging on to bad trades, I might still be able to turn some pretty good profits. But the way I have rolled has given me opportunities to have greater success with a bigger risk of failure.
  • #79,634
  • Dec 29, 2018 1:04am Dec 29, 2018 1:04am
Quoting Up-trend
Does anyone agree? > Long position in USD/JPY
Agree, I do not! Trend is strong, never fight the trend, a trader uses the trend for knowledge and defense, never attack the trend, a trader must.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY244.jpg Size: 233 KB
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #79,635
  • Dec 29, 2018 1:46am Dec 29, 2018 1:46am
BUY on RED (MAJOR) / GRAY (MINOR) : possible BOTTOM
SELL on GREEN (MAJOR) / BLUE (MINOR) : possible TOP
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYmicroH4_TopsBottoms.png Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYmicroH1_TopsBottoms.png Size: 42 KB
We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #79,636
  • Dec 29, 2018 4:41am Dec 29, 2018 4:41am
Quoting dweb
BUY on RED (MAJOR) / GRAY (MINOR) : possible BOTTOM SELL on GREEN (MAJOR) / BLUE (MINOR) : possible TOP {image} {image}
the indi ... sounds interesting ...


P.S.
Does it work at low Tf(m15,m1)?
... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #79,637
  • Dec 29, 2018 5:01am Dec 29, 2018 5:01am
Quoting arncap
I have been heavily invested in USDJPY short for a long time -- some trades as long as 5.5 years running with swap losses as high as negative $8,300. Take a look at the screenshot of my platform and you'll see what I mean! This is a real live account, not a demo! Any ideas which direction this pair is headed in the coming months? I would love to see a turnaround of sorts!!! Does anyone see the pair move into the 90s in the near future? I look forward to hearing the outlook from other traders... {image}
What tenacity! Did you really plan on being a position trader from the outset, arncap?

Here's my take, fwiw (and since you asked). Based on my reading of the monthly chart. I think that the U/J could head further down long-term to even below 75.

The question, though, is this: How much are you prepared to risk if that scenario does not play out? Would you be willing to wait for price to NOT GO beyond the invalidation levels at ~136 or at the very least ~126 ?
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #79,638
  • Dec 29, 2018 5:11am Dec 29, 2018 5:11am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Agree, I do not! Trend is strong, never fight the trend, a trader uses the trend for knowledge and defense, never attack the trend, a trader must. {image}
Yea man do u think it will bounce up 100 pips up and come crashing down? What do u think will happen?
  • #79,639
  • Dec 29, 2018 5:22am Dec 29, 2018 5:22am
Quoting arncap
I have been heavily invested in USDJPY short for a long time -- some trades as long as 5.5 years running with swap losses as high as negative $8,300. Take a look at the screenshot of my platform and you'll see what I mean! This is a real live account, not a demo! Any ideas which direction this pair is headed in the coming months? I would love to see a turnaround of sorts!!! Does anyone see the pair move into the 90s in the near future? I look forward to hearing the outlook from other traders... {image}
Inserted Video
POSTMASTER
  • #79,640
  • Dec 29, 2018 10:51am Dec 29, 2018 10:51am
Quoting mag00
{quote} the indi ... sounds interesting ... P.S. Does it work at low Tf(m15,m1)?
this could help #post 17
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post11829682
We err, and err, and err again, but less.
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AndriiOrlov