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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #79,581
  • Dec 22, 2018 1:14pm Dec 22, 2018 1:14pm
Quoting Tanu76
Expecting 112 soon I have longs built up
Me too it’s probably going to 112.400
ex nihilo
  • #79,582
  • Dec 24, 2018 1:33am Dec 24, 2018 1:33am
hey guys what do you think about longs here even though stock and bonds are falling usd has raised the interest rates and wasnt dovish as expected Us economy is strong. eurusd has corrected. Maybe usd jpy might just go up little bit 100 pips maybe. Not a trading advice just my opinion
  • #79,583
  • Dec 24, 2018 3:42am Dec 24, 2018 3:42am
Quoting MrAashir
hey guys what do you think about longs here even though stock and bonds are falling usd has raised the interest rates and wasnt dovish as expected Us economy is strong. eurusd has corrected. Maybe usd jpy might just go up little bit 100 pips maybe. Not a trading advice just my opinion
I'm not trading over Christmas as I think a break is in order, but this morning I looked at the nice little uturn eurusd did with the hour candles and thought a eurusd long might've been ok. UJ on the other hand had the nasty gap down and then small unconvincing hour candles trying to crawl up, then the bear candle back to the start. I'd want to see UJ have a convincing HL with a few good bull hour candles And hour confirmation of higher support before going long. In short I wouldnt be racing to go long UJ atm. I've been trying to get my head around the fundamentals too but it seems trump's presidency and his decisions are throwing uncertainty and unpredictability around. If unsure about a trading decision, dont trade . That's where I'm at atm
NB looks like the current hour candle is doing it's best to be bullish and drive up off 111.000, but the hour isnt over. It would be a good start. Be careful.
  • #79,584
  • Dec 24, 2018 7:29am Dec 24, 2018 7:29am
UJ needs to square sitting two times on TL to go long. If TL is broken, then i will keep moving it down till it squares.
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POSTMASTER
  • #79,585
  • Dec 24, 2018 8:07am Dec 24, 2018 8:07am
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Guys, I expect A sell here!
  • #79,586
  • Dec 24, 2018 8:28am Dec 24, 2018 8:28am
Quoting Prisha
{image} Guys, I expect A sell here!
Looks like i was wrong no retracement this time. it is dropping like rock thankfully got out early cause of low confidence.
  • #79,587
  • Dec 24, 2018 10:12am Dec 24, 2018 10:12am
Anybody considering 107.xx level?
  • #79,588
  • Dec 24, 2018 10:25am Dec 24, 2018 10:25am
Quoting markofrose
Anybody considering 107.xx level?
Will reverse when we get 2 hits on TL and a 75% retrace on the first impulse, whichever the price will be. Target afterward 113.90
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POSTMASTER
  • #79,589
  • Dec 25, 2018 8:58am Dec 25, 2018 8:58am
Quoting markofrose
Anybody considering 107.xx level?
im shorting based off monthly technicals, and Trump uncertainty with FED driving USD strength down.

109.6 next level of support

108.5 ish followed by 107.0 ish
  • #79,590
  • Dec 25, 2018 9:23am Dec 25, 2018 9:23am
Technical was the 112 broken, so the way is open for new lows. Mybe we will see a pullback, the probability for 113.90 is less than seeing 108.5.
For a move to 113.90 we need the DOW market support. The capital from the stock markets goes into the yen.
  • #79,591
  • Dec 25, 2018 6:36pm Dec 25, 2018 6:36pm
I'm short as well, with 109.80 as target.

Happy holidays, btw, to you all!
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #79,592
  • Dec 26, 2018 9:17am Dec 26, 2018 9:17am
Quoting doji
I'm short as well, with 109.80 as target. Happy holidays, btw, to you all!
Starting to make the drop towards that target right now. Happy holidays!
  • #79,593
  • Dec 26, 2018 9:20am Dec 26, 2018 9:20am
Quoting Firmin2509
Technical was the 112 broken, so the way is open for new lows. Mybe we will see a pullback, the probability for 113.90 is less than seeing 108.5. For a move to 113.90 we need the DOW market support. The capital from the stock markets goes into the yen.
What are your thoughts on the upcoming BoJ Kuroda speech? Given QE had lacklustre results for Japan, what are some potential avenues Japan may go down to offset this recession/downturn from really taking a hit on their exports. Not fully directed towards you Firmin, want to. Try to get some convo going
  • #79,594
  • Edited 3:02pm Dec 26, 2018 2:51pm | Edited 3:02pm
I just woke and thought I'd have a review of the nights action and wonder how I wouldve gone and I think I wouldve lost money. Using hour candles there was shooting star, a break of TL with a significant bear candle that wouldve hooked me with a sell for sure. The next candle was a piercing bullish candle (>50% penetration) and then up she went. Looking at the chart I know I dont tend to give those penetrating candles the respect they deserve - I'll look for tweezer bottoms or doji and reversal etc, but that turn around wouldve thumped me for sure !!!
  • #79,595
  • Dec 26, 2018 2:53pm Dec 26, 2018 2:53pm
Quoting hellsbells
I just woke and thought I'd have a review of the nights action and wonder how I wouldve gone and I think I wouldve lost money. Using hour candles there was a break of TL with a significant bear candle that wouldve hooked me with a sell for sure. The next candle was a piercing bullish candle (>50% penetration) and then up she went. Looking at the chart I Td know I dont tend to give those penetrating candles the respect they deserve - I'll look for tweezer bottoms or doji and reversal etc, but that turn around wouldve thumped me for sure !!!
yeah, I had a short which just broke even, that bullish candle I believe was from the Japanese CPI news.
  • #79,596
  • Edited 3:14pm Dec 26, 2018 3:02pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting Ra.
{quote} yeah, I had a short which just broke even, that bullish candle I believe was from the Japanese CPI news.
Hmmm that's was hours earlier and was only off by .1%? Forecast .6% and it was .5% ? I was wondering too looking at what news could've done that at that time of day. I was about to look for trumps latest antics. Very tough chart.
I just looked at how it unfolded on the 5min chart. A small 3candle reversal with small doji just after 3am Australian east coast time ( 4pm London, 11am NY). Wow. That got the move started. Theres no way I'd be up watching for a reversal at that time. Nasty.
  • #79,597
  • Dec 26, 2018 3:17pm Dec 26, 2018 3:17pm
The Dow has surged 1000points ???? Breaking news. What trickery is all this
  • #79,598
  • Dec 26, 2018 3:25pm Dec 26, 2018 3:25pm
Quoting hellsbells
The Dow has surged 1000points ???? Breaking news. What trickery is all this
Did not see that coming.....
  • #79,599
  • Dec 26, 2018 5:04pm Dec 26, 2018 5:04pm
Still holding on to my bearish view, though: target is even, in fact, lower at 109.60.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #79,600
  • Dec 26, 2018 5:23pm Dec 26, 2018 5:23pm
My pure speculation lol
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